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North Korea, Donald Trump, and Obama’s Controlled Chaos

With news coming out of North Korea that the regime has in fact tested another engine for an ICBM capable of reaching the USA, observers are begining to wonder if the only real solution to North Korea is war. Russia and China have alredy moved troops to the border as early as May when tensions began to increase, but now any pressure the international community might have had (especially China) on the North Korean regime has melted.

President Trump himself acknowledged this in a tweet.

The world like the Syria crisis moves ever closer to the point of no return. If the Kim regime would get an ICBM, it’s nuclear ambitions would be fully realized.  This means the Trump administration has little time to avert a fully nuclear capable North Korea, which would destablize Asia and upend America’s dominance in the Pacific, not to mention being held “captive” by a mad man who could decide to nuke America whenever he got angry.

So how did we get here?  Afterall, even the most ardent Trump critics do not blame the crisis on him. The North Korean nuclear program flourished under Obama after it achieved break out under Bush.

The Obama administration could  have stopped it early on, but allowed it to develop and grow. Why?

Everything the Obama administration did when it came to foreign policy should be seen through the prism of chaos creation.  This can be applied to funding ISIS ( in its early days), Black Lives Matter, not preventing Russia from entering Syria, and of course North Korea.

This attempt at creating controlled chaos serves both the Deep State and the Globalists, because chaos breeds the need for placing a new order so as to provide a solution where there was none within the chaos. This allows the Deep State and Globalists to take more control.

The problem is, chaos cannot be controlled.  It goes the way it wants and almost never where the party who creates intends it to. The world is at the precipice because the Deep State and Globalist elite network of rulers has put us there.

Donald Trump will have no choice but to take down the North Korean regime. It is clear he does not wnat to go to war, but an ICBM in the hands of a madman is not an option. In the ensuing chaos, the Deep State and Globalists will attempt to assert control, but the chaos may very well be too much even for them.

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Iranian Made Drone Downed By American Forces, Does the US Have a Coherent Policy in Syria?

Late yesterday, US Coalition forces shot down an Iranian made UAV comandeered by the Syrian military.

“The armed pro-regime Shaheed-129 [unmanned aerial vehicle] was shot down by a U.S. F-15E Strike Eagle at approximately 12:30 a.m. after it displayed hostile intent and advanced on Coalition forces,” the coalition command said in a press release.

“The Coalition has made it clear to all parties publically [sic] and through the de-confliction line with Russian forces that the demonstrated hostile intent and actions of pro-regime forces toward Coalition and partner forces in Syria conducting legitimate counter-ISIS operations will not be tolerated,” it said.

The US and their allied partners in Syria still assume the deconfliction zones layed out with Russia have remained in affect.  This stands in contrast with Russia’s own statement after the downing of the Syrian jet. Russia has made it clear that all foreign warplanes in Syrian airspace will be shot down.

Is There an Actual US Policy in Syria

With each passing day an incident it has become apparent that the US policy in Syria is non-existant.  This is not to say they have nothing in the works, but they have been caught of-guard by the lightening speed movement of Russian backed pro-regime forces and Iranian Shiite Militias and are trying to push back.

With Daraa falling and regime forces using the Raqqa battle to push Eastward, the US and their coalition forces need find a fast way to push the regime back without causing the war to turn into something much larger.  So far no remedy has been found.

David Gardner from the Financial Times said the following in an opinion piece about the situation:

“The limited initiatives to somewhat attenuate the Syrian disaster are almost all coming from Russia: a tripartite (and ineffective) ceasefire with Iran and Turkey; the “de-escalation zones” Moscow proposed in May, albeit in the four areas where the Assads still face strong challenges from rebels; even a constitutional blueprint to decentralise power in Syria. The US has come up with next to nothing. The common denominator in these three Russian initiatives may be — some western diplomats involved in Syria suggest — that President Vladimir Putin is groping towards an exit strategy from Syria. If so, nothing Mr Trump is engaged in looks likely to help him find one.”

One counter to Gardner’s assertion about Russia’s involvement is that Putin ever the chess player has been playing both sides in the war in order to create an underlying need to entrap the Americans in a quagmire not easily extricated.

While it is clear what happened over the weekend and late yesterday are ominous, they are more examples of an administration being handed a hot potato by its precedessor and not getting up to speed fast enough to handle it.

While Trump may not have moved fast enough to counter Syrian and Iranian advancement in Syria this is more of a product of clear indecisiveness in being ready to push back against the Russians in their desire to control the Levant.

 

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Syrian and Russian Offensive on Daraa Resumes, Bringing Israel Into Iran’s Crosshairs

The Russian backed Syrian offensive resumed today after a 48 hour ceasefire.  Syrian government troops have already taken over  various neighborhoods in Daraa, putting pressure on the American backed Free Syrian Army (FSA). It was reported that the FSA was given an ultimatum on Saturday to pull back.  They didn’t so bombing resumed.

Daraa is crucial for a few reasons.  If it falls entirely to the Syrian government, the Syrian Rebels and US led coalition will split in half.  Even more dire is that the Daraa province buttresses the Golan Heights creating a corridor for Iranian militia to reach Israel. This will leave Israeli backed militia to fend off the more highly trained Iranians.

With the Wall Street Journal article making waves by connecting Israel’s humanitarian help to the strength of the Syrian rebels fighting the Assad regime, the above map makes it clear why the Israeli government feels it necessary to be bolstering these forces. Unlike the Lebanese Civil War, when Israel actually entered into the South of the country, the Netanyahu government would rather create a friendly buffer zone using humanitarian needs as a reason for helping the rebels.  The situation though, may be deteriorating and require the IDF to enter the fray to hold off the Iranians from reaching their border.

If Daraa falls the US and Israel will have to make a decision to directly enter the war or build up a workable containment strategy.  The next few days of the Daraa offensive will be crucial in determining the scope of both nations’ involvement.

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US TO RUSSIA: We Will Defend Ourselves in Syria

The Syrian conflict has now spiraled put of to control to the point where Russia and the US are an incident away from WW3.

Sean Spicer, White House Press Secretary responded to Russia’s statement on shooting down US planes in Syria with this comment:

“Obviously, we’re going to do what we can to protect our interests,” Spicer said. “We will always preserve the right of self-defense.”

This is far more serious than anyone wants to admit. The US has no intent on keeping its fighter jets out of the sky since it would open up the SDF and YPG to heavily armed Syrian forces. Of course that is exactly what they want. Without the US providing air coverage, Syrian govenment forces would be abe to push them out of Syria.

Essentially Syria has now become a very bad game of  chicken.  The only question is whether someone will flinch.

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SYRIA ON THE BRINK: Russia Will Target US Airplanes in Syria

In response to the downing of a Syrian warplane by US forces yesterday, the Russian Defense Ministry said it will treat U.S.-led coalition planes in Syria, west of the Euphrates River, as targets.

Furthermore, Russia said it is suspending coordination with the United States in Syria. This coordination has kept the two super powers from direct conflict since 2015.

Is Direct Conflict Coming?

In one word, yes.  Without the deconfliction deal the chances of a direct conflict between the US and Russia is much higher.  Look for Putin to take steps in aiding the Syrian regime against US forces in Eastern Syria.

With a deconfliction agreement finished between the US and Russia, chances are Putin will scrap his deal with Israel.  This imperils the ability for Israel to defend itself in the Galilee and Golan.

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WAR ESCALATES: Why Did Iran Just Shoot Missiles Into Syria?

The war in Syria has gone from intensified to explosive as the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced that it fired several ground o ground missiles in from Western Iran into Syria’s Deir Ezzor region in the country’s East.

The purpose, according to the Iranians was a realiation for the attack on Tehran by ISIS on June 7th.

Most likely the Iranian missile attack on Eastern Syria was far more a message for the US coalition than a retaliation against ISIS.

Three points to consider:

  1. The proximity in time to the downing of a Syrian Warplane makes the missile attack a likely soft-retaliation for the US attack within sovereign Syria.
  2. The Iranians need a powerplay as the SDF/YPG are moving South and North in a rush to pick up the pieces as ISIS falls apart. The message is clear: “Don’t expect a post ISIS Syria to be a cake walk.”
  3. Iran wanted to send a message to Israel: “We can already reach you.”

As the Syrian war seems to be exploding in a far more dangerous and chaotic way all the issues surrounding the war are coming to a head.  The next move is now Trump’s…is he willing to stop Iran?

 

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CRISIS IN SYRIA: US Forces Shoot Down Syrian Warplane for the First Time

The Syrian conflict moved one step closer to all out war between the US and Syria/Iran/Russia as the US led coalition shot down a Syrian government Su-22 fighter near the town of Tabqa as it was caught bombing Syrian Democratic Forces, an umbrella group of Syrian Kurdish and Arab rebel forces. The SDF was fighting ISIS in the area in preparation for its upcoming battle to take Raqqa.

 

 

What’s Next?

The mission creep pushed by the American government is clear to everyone at this point.  What is not clear is whether the Trump administration is willing to put more than special forces on the ground.

The following three points should be looked out for in the coming week in reaction to the Coalition’s downing of the Syrian warplane:

  1. Retaliation against the US and Jordanian forces now in the South-East of Syria
  2. Hezbollah Attack on Israel
  3. Russian aiding Syria against the SDF and YPG in the North

The Trump administration’s policy is to use local forces to fight its ground wars while providing logistics and air support.  In the expanded Syrian war the world is now entering, this may not be an option anymore. For example, Israel has been slowly creating a buffer zone East of the Golan, but as Southern Syria falls to government troops, Israel may not be able to hold off from entering the war in a more direct manner.

Trump’s plan seems to have one foot in and one foot out of Syria.  That works when towing the line between the semi-isolationist stance he took when running and the need to have an effect on the outcome of the war.  However, Russia and Iran are not holding back and it is not clear for how long the YPG/SDF as well as Israel’s allies close to the Golan can hold them back.

The downing of the Syrian jet maybe the first response to the growing Russian/Syrian/Iranian juggernaut.

 

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Will America Move CENTCOM from Qatar?

As the Qatar crisis heads into its second week another shoe is evidently about to drop.  The AP reported that the U.A.E.’s ambassador in Washington, Yousef Al Otaiba, urged the Trump administration to consider moving its air base out of Qatar.

“Maybe someone in Congress should have a hearing and just say, you know, ‘Should we consider moving it?’” the ambassador said in Washington on Tuesday. “And maybe not moving the entire base. Maybe just distribute to various countries so you don’t have all your eggs in one basket.”

The airbase is home to CENTCOM the hub for the US military in the region.  If the US would move the enormaous base Qatar would lose the last piece of leverage it has with the West.

Although behind the scenes the US has been supporting the Saudi led maneuvers against Qatar, it was not until recently that President Trump iterated his support for the Saudi blockade.

“One of the big things that we did, and you are seeing it now in Qatar and all of the things that are actually going on in a very positive fashion, we are stopping the funding of terrorism,” Trump said. “We are going to stop the funding of terrorism. It’s not an easy fight but that is a fight that we are going to win. We are going to starve the beast.”

Although moving CENTCOM is highly unlikely at this point, nothing should be ruled out. With Saudi Arabia moving fast agianst radical Jihad, the time for action is clearly now. If the US does indeed move CENTCOM, it may be the trigger that will start the next round of war in the region.

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Are Post ISIS Alliances Already Taking Shape?

As the Raqqa operation gets underway, with the SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) ploughing forward into the “capital” of ISIS, the terror group’s leaders and fighters are said to have already travelled to safe havens along the middle Euphrates.  With the American backed SDF bogged down in strett to street fighting, Iranian paramilitary units are pouring in from where they helped fight to free Mosul to Eastern Syria to destroy the heads of ISIS.

This struggle for land as ISIS collapses is forming the beginnings of regional boundaries that in essence brand new lines between ethnic units as well as defined frontiers of regional alliances.

Rising up from the rubble of ISIS are two clearly definied groupings.

The first consists of Russia, Iran, Syria (Assad), Turkey, and Qatar.  None of these countries trust eachother, but work together under a common interest in battling back America as well as seeking a piece of what they see as a rising Middle Eastern hegemony.

The second group is made up of the United States, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, UAE, Jordan, Egypt, Kurds and Israel.  This grouping sees the first group as an existential threat and has been conjoled to work together by the Trump administration.

With the fall of ISIS a matter of weeks, the real battle will come after. Iran has used the chaos to reach to the Israeli border.  They have shown the ability to capitalize on the weaknesses of their enemies. Besides Iran, Hezbollah can now turn its sites on Israel.

The Middle Eastern alliances now taking shape even before the last of the caliphate are buried not only put Iran im the drivers seat, but increase the likelihood of war sooner rather than later.  The Syckes-Picot agreement, the document based colonialist and neo-colonialist pinciples set in motion by France and Germany is becoming irrelevant as a new set of states and mini states take shape.

As the chaos spreads throughout the region and beyond, the Saudis backed by Israeli tehnology will attempt to push back on the Shiite gains in order to create a buffer between the Kingdom and its enemies. The Kurds backed covertly by Israel and overtly by America will be encouraged to push forward in order to stabilize Northern Syria and Iraq and break the link between a power hungry Turkey and their allies in Qatar.

Be prepared the Great Game of the Middle East is about to begin. It could very well be far more destructive than the havoc ISIS has caused.

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Qatar Crisis Puts Hamas on the Ropes as Israel Cuts Electricity to Gaza

In the latest twists and turns in the unfolding Sunni crisis with Qatar, Israel has been drawn into the Saudi stand-off with its fellow Gulf country by way of cutting the Gaza Strip’s electricity to only two hours a day. In coordination with PA president Mahmoud Abbas, the Israeli security cabinet has further reduced electricity to the Hamas run strip.  Qatar has been Hamas’ foremost backer. One of the points the Saudis have required Qatar to follow through on in order to lift their blockade is for Qatar to break off ties to the terror group.

With Abbas and Israel coordinating against Hamas, while Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, UAE, and Egypt tighten the screws on Qatar, the potential for war is increasing daily.  Abbas has cut off payments to PA workers in the Gaza Strip as well as pulling back on transferring vitals to Gaza Strip residents.

Hamas has responded with the following statement feeding fears of an open conflict:

“The decision of the occupation to reduce the electricity to Gaza at the request of PA President Mahmoud Abbas is catastrophic and dangerous. It will accelerate the deterioration and explode the situation in the Strip,” said Hamas spokesperson Abdel Latif al-Qanua. “Those who will bear the consequences of this decision are the Israeli enemy, who is besieging the Gaza Strip, and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.”

What is most surprising about Israel’s move to cut Gaza’s electricity is the amount of coordination between Egypt, Israel, and the PA to ensure that Israel can follow through with the electricity reduction.  The Qatar crisis has given the emerging Sunni-Israel alliance its first opportunity to test their ability to work together despite not reaching a coveted peace agreement.

Regional Peace First

The coordination between the Sunni alliance and Israel has been unprecedented. It sets the stage for Trump’s path to peace, which is to arrive at a regional deal before Israel and the Palestinians reach an improbable agreement on final status issues. This puts both the Gaza front and the Qatar blockade into focus as a real test to to Israel-Sunni coordination against common regional adversaries like organized terror groups and Iran.