Turkey Archives - Page 8 of 9

May 9, 2016

Who are the Winners and Losers from an Independent Kurdistan?

Masrour Barzan Chancellor of the Kurdistan Region Security Council said in a Washington Post Opinion piece, “It is time to acknowledge that the experiment has not worked. Iraq is a failed state, and our continued presence within it condemns us all to unending conflict and enmity.”

This veiled threat to carry out a referendum on Kurdish independence has a lot more legs to it than most pundits would believe. The Kurdistan Regional Government has been toying with such a move for a while and the growing vacuum in Iraq has given them ample reason to move ahead with such a move.

The question is not if the Kurds will push for independence from Iraq, but when they do, who are the winners and losers from such a move.

Winners:

Russia opens up another potential partner in the chaos that is the Middle East. Rich with oil, Kurdistan will provide Russia with a stable base of operations in one of the most contested regions in the world.

Israel will find its long term support of a non-Arab entity in the Middle East to be fruitful. For years Israel has provided intelligence, training, and economic ties to the fledgling Kurdish Autonomous Region. It gains a forward base against Iran and direct access to an emerging oil market.

Losers:

Turkey stands to have the most to lose as they have opposed Kurdish independence from the beginning. Turkey has more ethnic Kurds than the Kurdish region in Iraq. An independent Kurdistan could very well inspire a full scale uprising and secession movement from Turkey’s Kurds. This would be a disaster for Erdogan.

Iraq will suffer a blow it will not recover from. Mosul and the other Kurdish dominated areas in Iraq’s North are potentially the most valuable. Iraq would suffer other secessionist movements if Kurdish independence is successful.

The Sunni states will lose their leverage as Western allies due to the fact the Kurds are far more moderate and likely to generate both geopolitical and financial support.

United States policy will suffer another setback as Kurdish independence is a clear indicator that Washington’s leverage is in decline.

February 15, 2016February 29, 2016

Can the Turkey-Russian War Break the Alliance System?

Are we in 1914 or 2016. Sometimes with all of the alliances it’s hard to tell. Then again when it comes to Syria there are some outliers that might just throw the alliance system out the window. With the war in Syria on the verge of turning into a much wider conflict it is important to understand how all the sides are stacked.

Russia, Iran, Syria, Armenia

The Shiite-Russian alliance has been steadily growing for some time. The pervading assumption has been Russia’s need for a Mediterranean port being behind his support of Assad. With Turkey’s downing of the SU-24, Putin’s calculus has changed.

Long an opponent of Turkey’s expansionism, Putin used the SU-24 incident to turn the screws on Turkey’s Erdogan. Armenia, a close ally of Russia is being beefed up as a potential launching pad for attacks against Turkey. Besides its alliance with Russia, Armenia has historical redresses with Turkey going back to the 1915 Armenian Genocide.

Iran and the Syrian government’s forces have become Russia’s ground troops in taking back the strategic Western part of the country. Russia has avoided a repeat of its Afghanistan debacle by using the Shiite armies to do its work. Besides that, the Shiites are giving Russia real geopolitical leverage against the region’s Sunni powers.

Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Gulf States

What makes the stakes so high in Syria, is the exacerbation of the Sunni-Shiite conflict. With Russia in full concert with the Shiite led countries, the Sunni states like Saudi Arabia and Turkey see no other choice but to go into the fray. The reasoning is simple: the Shiites with a resurgent Russia need to be stopped now or risk being too formidable once their gains are entrenched.

The Sunnis are 90% of the Islamic world, but the growing Shiite crescent creates a real strategic nightmare for them, effectively cutting the Sunni world in two and, of course, controlling key oil routes that will have a very real effect on future regional control.

NATO

Although conventional wisdom insists that NATO would issue the game changing Article 5 in the case of a Turkish-Russian war, it is not at all clear NATO will pick a side. Europe is very much dependent on Russian gas during the winter. They are also trying to tamp down the off again on again conflict in East Ukraine and need Russia to help them. As for Obama and the USA, getting into a war with Russia and the Shiites on behalf of Turkey and the gulf states is not something they want.

With all of that being said, a full out war between Russia and Turkey will have large consequences for energy control, economy, and refugees. NATO may have little choice but to jump into things on behalf of their most disliked member, Turkey, even if the gamble proves to be a negative one.

Greece, Cyprus, Israel

With Greece, Cyprus, and Israel’s new found partnership in energy, technology, and security all three of them are loath to pick sides in what is fast turning into a geopolitical typhoon. Greece and Cyprus are arch enemies of Turkey and it is no surprise that Greece has made it clear that they see Russia as a friend and potential partner. This of course puts Israel into an uncomfortable position. At one hand, Israel has been seeking what is known as a neutral foreign policy for decades and, on the other hand, is still very much in the orbit of Europe and the USA.

With Russian overflights of Israeli airspace increasing daily and new trade avenues opening up with the very countries aligned with Russia, it should no longer be surprising what side the government in Jerusalem picks. Then again, that would put it on the same side as its arch enemies, Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah. Russia insists it has them in check, but trusting Putin has never been a good idea.

Of course, Bibi and Israel rather stay out of it and continue trading with all parties equally, but remaining neutral may no longer be an option.

Jordan

The King of Jordan has vacillated between the West and Russia. In many ways for the same reason Israel has. Surrounded by ISIS and Al Qaida, King Hussein’s rule is the most tenuous in the Middle East. Assurances for his family and his throne’s safety are key. If Russia can promise protection, then Jordan may very well switch sides.

Kurdistan

Kurdistan has always been hard to read. Typically speaking, the Kurds (split between Turkey, Syria, and Iraq) have done their best to pick partners that would be willing to help them advance their independence agenda. In this case, Russia seems most willing to help defend and enhance Kurdish objectives; mainly because the Kurds are the single biggest domestic threat to Turkey.

If a Turkish-Russian war does materialize then the Kurds are Putin’s most important weapon. They give Putin a Turkish domestic constituency primed for a violent uprising. In addition, they are a formidable fighting force situated along the length of Turkey’s entire Southern border. Coupled with the fact that Iraqi Kurdistan is oil rich makes them the lynchpin Putin needs.

What’s Next?

Full on war between Russia and Turkey and their respective allies seems almost certain at this point. The question is: when? That depends much on Turkey’s actions in the next few days. If the Turkish army continues to shell Northern Syria and even sends troops in then Russia will act. Russia will claim they have no choice but to capture the Bosphorous Straits, in order to defend against a Turkish closure to Russian vessels. At that point, the key actor to look at is NATO. If they enter on the side of Turkey, Russia will send their army into Ukraine. Once that happens all bets are off.

February 14, 2016February 14, 2016

Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the Imminent Threat of Expanding War

If the latest reports out of the Levant are true, Turkey has quite possibly sparked a global war. RIA Novosti reports by way of Sputnik News the following:

“Turkish artillery opened fire on the positions of the Syrian army in the Alia hills region of northwest Latakia. Several shells have fallen from Turkish territory.”

Given the fact that Turkey has been building up its armed presence on the Syrian border has been seen by many as a sign of impending invasion. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia has made it clear they would like to move ground troops into Syria in order to fight ISIS. The combination of the two Sunni allies potentially sending ground forces into the Syrian chaos guarantees an exponential expansion of the war.

Russia, Iran, and the Assad regime know the Sunni countries will not sit by and watch themselves become diced up by Russian backed Shiite forces. The Sunnis have spent way too much capital in stopping the burgeoning Shiite crescent to not try to push it back when it matters most.

Russia is not Backing Down

With oil prices falling and a weakened West, Russia cannot afford to back off it’s growing entanglement with Syria, especially since they appear to be winning. This is Putin’s gamble and he wants and needs to win. They have proven that sheer force and a disregard to international norms when attacking civilian areas can defeat what they view as radicalism. Putin is sending a message out to the Islamic militants within Russia, not to mess around.

Erdogan Needs a Win or Else

Erdogan really thought that he would have been able to woo Israel back into his fold. Yaalon has now indicated that it will not happen. Without an energy partner and a tightening embargo from Russia, Erdogan has to push back on the Syrian forces that are maligning ethnic Turkmen in Northern Syria. Even more so, Erdogan has to show that he is still viable. Bombing Syria and taking the Northern territory is the surest way to do that. Of course it could very well ignite a conflict far more destructive throughout the entire region.

February 5, 2016February 9, 2016

Is the Russian Turkish War About to Start?

After weeks of staying out of the news, Turkey has finally found a way back into the international headlines. Speculation is rising that Turkey is planning to possibly send troops into Syria. TASS reports, “Turkey has denied the Russian Federation an observation flight over its territory that was to be held within the framework of the Open Skies Treaty, a senior Russian Defense Ministry official said Wednesday.”

Two possibilities lie behind the Turkish move. Either, Turkey is really preparing a ground invasion of Northern Syria in order to protect their Turkmen allies or they want to deny Moscow the ability to see the relationship between Turkish forces and ISIS.

“The route supposed, among other things, observation of areas adjacent to the Syrian border and airfields where NATO aircraft are concentrated. But after the arrival of the Russian mission in Turkey and the announcement of the planned route of the observation flight, the Turkish military denied the opportunity to conduct it citing an instruction from Turkey’s Foreign Ministry,” said Sergey Ryzhkov, chief of the ministry’s department for control of implementation of treaties.

“In this way, as a result of violations of the requirements of the Treaty and unconstructive actions on the part of Turkey, a dangerous precedent was created of an uncontrolled military activity of an Open Skies Treaty member state,” Ryzhkov said.

Although a few months ago a ground invasion of Turkish forces into Syria seemed outrageous, now no one seems to be laughing. Erdogan is cornered. Russia doesn’t sell gas to Turkey and Erdogan cannot seem to reach a final rapprochement with Israel. Without affordable energy and increasing isolation to the North, North East, and the South, Erdogan must make a move. A move South will spark a war. A Russian Turkish war could spiral out of control and draw in most of the region if not other world powers.

Erdogan Toprak, opposition member in Turkey has lent wait to the rising possibility that Turkey would send troops over the border. “The presence Hulusi Akar, Chief of the General Staff of the Turkish Armed Forces, among the people accompanying Davutoglu to Riyadh, as well as a group photograph featuring Akar posing together with a top Saudi official while wearing army fatigues and boots, sends a clear message: the Turkish Armed Forces are ready to take the lead role in a possible ground military action in Syria,” notes Toprak.

Essentially, the war between the Sunni’s and Shiites is about to be raised a few notches.

What Should Israel Do?

Stay out of it. There are no good sides in this war. Israel would be wise in keeping neutral, because there is no one that would be preferable. In a sense, Israel is watching two boxers go add it for 10 rounds, only to both fall to the floor. By staying out of the conflict, Israel can pick up the pieces after the conflict is finished.

January 28, 2016June 14, 2017

Israel is Moving Beyond Turkey

Israel, Greece, and Cyprus held a top level three way meeting on building a gas pipeline from Israel and Cyprus to Greece, for exporting gas to Europe. This has been brewing for a while and the reports that we pushed forward previously have come to fruition, indicating that Israel is not waiting for Turkey to decide if they want to be part of the growing detente.

“Our partnership is not exclusive in design or nature, and we are ready to welcome other like-minded actors to join our efforts to promote coordination and cooperation, as well as regional peace and stability,” the three leaders said in a joint statement.

The above statement seems to leave the door open for Turkey at a later stage, but clearly at a reduced role. The energy alliance is quickly growing into something far more concrete as the three leaders talked about coordination on security, hi-tech, energy, and other important issues.

The alliance stands to quickly change the Eastern Mediterranean geopolitical reality, providing a sense of stability in a region engulfed by radical Islamic chaos. The burgeoning partnership is a testament to Israel’s increased standing in the World, despite the claims of isolation due to a lack of movement in the “peace process.”

Last month the Greek premiere Alexis Tsipras called Jerusalem, Israel’s historic capital, which many people saw as a sign that relations between the two countries were moving to a new level of cooperation.

December 18, 2015February 9, 2016

Turkey and Israel, Friends Again?

We live in a strange world. As the American uni-polar world collapses, alliances are born and others fall away. Partnerships are formed based on near term survival, without consideration for the long view. Turkey, by all estimates was heading into the dustbin. Surrounded by Russia to the North East, Iran to the South East, and a resurgent Assad to the South with Russia behind him, Erdogan, the Sultan not to be was cornered. Russia supplies most of Turkey’s gas. Without Russia’s gas, Turkey would collapse due to a lack of energy.

Israel an Energy Leader

Israel rushed through the gas deal this week, not only because of the new energy alliance with Greece, Cyprus, and Egypt, but because of the secret deal now reveled to the World. Turkey would be given a life line and pulled out of its corner and Israel would act as the senior partner in the relationship.

Leadership requires making decisions even if they are unpopular. Erdogan is not a nice guy. He slaughters Kurds and denies his country’s role in the Armenian genocide, but Israel is in a different place now and chose to offer Turkey the lifeline it needed.

Two Viewpoints

There have been two pervading viewpoints int he defense establishment in Israel. One is to work with Russia and embrace Assad in order to return stability to the Middle East. The other is to build relationships that will counteract Iran no matter the cost of stability and Russian tactical considerations. The Turkey move, means the latter won out.

What of Greece and Cyprus?

Greece and Cyprus need Israel far more than it needs them. The returning to ties with Turkey is a cold one, brought on by Jerusalem’s concern about Iran and Syria coming out of this war in a clearly unstoppable manner. Strengthening Turkey in a non-emotional way provides a push back to the Shiites. None of the maneuvers we are seeing are the products of long term strategic planning. The post USA Middle East is too new to learn where the lines will be drawn.

Out of Putin’s own Playbook

Israel agreed to the return of relations with Turkey only because of the gas pipeline Turkey is willing to lay for Israel. By becoming the major gas provider to Turkey Israel holds the upper hand in the relationship. Mess with Israel and Turkey loses its gas. This has been Putin’s strategy with Europe for years.

A Dangerous Path

With Russia preparing for a possible war with Turkey and their tactical partnership with Iran, throwing a way out to Erdogan puts us in an uncomfortable situation. Putin clearly views Erdogan as enemy number one. Israel helping him does not bode well for our relationship with Russia. It could be there was never anything to talk about with Putin and that Jerusalem decided to move forward before Putin and company decided to put the Jewish Nation into a more uncomfortable spot. Whatever the reason, the new gas partnership puts Israel on the side of those counties Putin dislikes. In the coming weeks Israel will have to go out of its way to play down the deal or potentially face the wrath of Putin and his forces.

December 15, 2015February 9, 2016

[Podcast] Israel’s Allies and Turkey’s Demise

This podcast is a continuation of my previous post on Israel’s indigenous allies. The podcast covers Turkey’s isolation and the fast pace of the new security and energy alliance in the Eastern Mediterranean between Greece, Cyprus, Egypt, and Israel. In the podcast we also discuss Russia’s relationship to Israel and the turbulent changes in the region. Other subjects we cover are Russia’s encirclement of Turkey by way of Armenia, Iraq, and Syria, as well as Greece and Cyprus.

Sources to look at:

December 14, 2015February 9, 2016

Israel’s Indigenous Allies

In the turbulent middle east friends can be hard to find, yet there are some allies Israel can unify behind it under the banner of fellow indigenous people of the region. Before the Islamic Jihad poured out of the Arabian peninsula, the region looked a lot different. Over the years, the world has gotten used to the idea that the Arab nation has always been here, but as I illustrated in my last post on Yathrib, the truth is a different manner.

What is taking shape in the region spanning from the Eastern Mediterranean to East Iraq, is a rising up of those peoples pushed to the corner by Arab muslims over the past 1300 years. The following is a short list of perhaps the most friendly to Israel and why each one can and should see itself as part of a larger alliance in the region.

Kurds

So much has been written about the Kurds. They are the largest group still without a sovereign state, unless you consider the Kurdish Autonomous Region one. They are hated by Turkey and have been friendly to Israel. They are Islamic in culture, but religiously very tolerant. Related to the ancient Medes who were always welcoming to the Jews, they were the indigenous people of what is now Northern Iraq. Attacked from the South by various caliphates and the North by the Turks, the Kurds are fierce in the defense of their homeland.

Israel has provided training and weapons to the KRG and behind the scenes has built an oil trade stemming from Mosul. The fact that both groups find themselves on the same side when it comes to both ISIS and Turkey only cements the quiet partnership.

Druze

The Druze are part of the fabric of Israeli society. They serve in some of the most elite units and are loyal to the state. Israeli Druze consider themselves to be part of a blood pact with the Jewish people and will defend the Land against the Arabs, whom they consider to be invaders. Major population centers of the Druze exist in Southern Lebanon and Jabal Al Druze in Southern Syria. There are 1.5 million Druze in the Levant.

Cypriots

Cyprus has been under the broader Greek world for almost 2.5 thousand years. Lying just to the West of Israel, it is one of the largest islands of the Mediterranean and shares many of the same gas fields as Israel does. It also suffers from occupation, with the Northern half of the Island under occupation from Turkey. This makes Cyprus a perfect partner in both defense and energy.

Arameans

One of the most confusing things about Christians in Israel has been their connection to the Arab narrative. Of course this has always been partly due to the fact that the Arab conquest forced many of these Christians to adopt Arab culture. Despite this, many Christians in Israel and Syria have clawed back into their roots and have rebuilt their stolen identity once known as Aramean. These Arameans are under threat in Syria, but have found Israel to be an excellent and natural ally against their common enemy, radical Islam.

Copts

Copts are the indigenous people of Egypt, that is before the Arabs invaded. They remained the majority population there until the 10th century and to this day are a large minority within Egypt. Since their roots can be traced to the beginning of Christianity and according to many Copts to the ancient Egyptians, the Arabs have made sure to oppress them in order to substantiate their hold. Copts probably suffer the worst persecution across Egypt, Sudan, and Libya. Their plight is well known. Recently El Sisi, president of Egypt has gone out of his way to protect them.

Armenians

Armenians are an ancient people and although in the Southern Caucasus region, their proximity to Turkey, Iran, and Iraq, put them into the Middle East’s strategic envelope. They suffered heavily under the Turks and were decimated by the Ottomans in the early 20th century. One of the four quarters in Jerusalem’s Old City is heavily populated by Armenians and because of their suffering at the hands of the Turks they feel a sense of friendship with Israel and the Jewish people.

Armenians are also becoming a key geo-location in the growing friction between Russia and Turkey. Russia has recently positioned attack helicopters there as part of their growing encirclement of Turkey. With all eyes on Turkey and ISIS, Armenia provides a great strategic ally in Caucasus region for Israel. It is another indigenous people that have suffered at the hands of Turkey, which has become one of the main backers of ISIS and radical Islam.

The above groups can serve as something more than a security envelope for Israel. They can serve as a foundation for a liberated Middle East.

December 10, 2015February 9, 2016

Israel Behind the News [Dec 10, 2015]

Knifing Victim From Kiryat Arba Shows Slight Improvement

A Chanukah miracle is unfolding. The gardener of the Cave of the Patriarchs that was stabbed earlier in the week and given a slim chance to live has miraculously shown some signs of improvement. He was stabbed four times; one in the chest, two in the heart and one in the pancreas.

Mark Zuckerberg Fails To Understand the Threat

Mark Zuckerberg posted what seems to be a push back against Donald Trump. Mark wants to lend his support to Muslims worldwide. While this sounds nice to millions of Americans unaware of just how different many in Islam are from them, he shows how he and others are ignorant of the wider situation in the Middle East. After all Middle Eastern Christians are being decimated and wiped out at the hands of their Muslim neighbors.

Israel has No Reason to Be Friends with Turkey

There is a new strategic alliance forming in the Eastern Mediterranean and Turkey does not seem to be part of it. With gas deals being signed between Cyprus, Greece, and Israel as well as defense pacts being pushed between these countries, the Israeli government has no need to return to the relationship they once had with Turkey. The realignment shows just how strong Israel’s hand is in the future . By being the anchor country in the Eastern Mediterranean Israel has an opportunity to forge a new regional order.

December 8, 2015February 9, 2016

Iran and the Jabal Al Druze Fiasco

The political and military echelon in Israel have often stated that Israel is staying neutral in the Syrian civil war. Any attacks on Syrian targets were meant to prevent game changing weaponry from falling into the hands of Hezbollah. After all, they insisted, our enemies are killing each other. No one seemed to be able to foresee direct Russian involvement and with it Iranian ground troops moving closer to Israel.

When the dust settles between Russia and Turkey their ISIS allies, Iranian, Syrian, and Hezbollah forces will in fact attack Israel. Despite what the leadership will tell us, their “neutrality” during this war enabled Iranian troops to fill the void left open on the Syrian side of the Golan. This tactical blunder on Israel’s part could have been thwarted as late as this past June. Jabal Al Druze or otherwise known as Druze Mountain is a district and home to a large portion of the Syrian Druze population situated East of the Golan Heights on the border of Jordan. It is a mountainous region and until the civil war the population remained 100% loyal to Assad.

With chaos reigning, ISIS forces began closing in on Jabal Al Druze in June and since the Druze are considered apostates by the Jihadists, many experts believed they would be killed on mass. Israel’s own Druze population wanted more to be done and yet nothing overt was undertaken.

All of this was before Russian involvement, when Assad looked as if he was finished. Israel’s opportunity to push their security line far to the East was missed and now a resurgent Assad can once again count on the loyalty of the Druze there.

One of the reasons why Israel did not go into Jabal Al Druze was because the Israeli elite abhor the appearance of seeming like the aggressor. The problem with this approach and especially in this situation, was that the Druze really looked under threat and given Israel’s own loyal Druze populace and the blood bond many of them feel with the people of Israel, extending the IDF’s control over this area would have been wholly explainable to the international community.

By the way, it should be noted that Jabal Al Druze was actually an autonomous region from 1921 to 1936 when Syria was under French control.

Timing is Everything

Five months later, and the Middle East has changed into something unrecognizable. Timing is everything in war and staying neutral is never an option within a fluid situation. Bibi Netanyahu’s strategy has always been to wait this out, but opportunities are lost when you don’t move in time. The loss of moving Israel’s security line East, by harnessing a thankful Druze population in Southern Syria, now means Iran is at Israel’s border.

How fast the next stage of the conflict progresses is anyone’s guess, but if the last 2 months are an indication, staying out of Syria is no longer an option.