Author: Gavriel Dan

Gavriel Dan spent a number of years covering social movements in Israel, the wider middle east and Europe. He is considered an expert in embedding himself with various groups and causes in order to get accurate and rich information.
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Syrian Regime Continues to Violate Ceasefire, This Time in Quneitra Next to Israel

The Free Syrian Army based East of Israel’s Golan posted the following tweet:

Given the ecstatic jubilation over the “ceasefire deal” brokered between Trump and Putin on the sidelines of the G20 these sorts of violations that have been growing in the descalation zones have esentially deemed the ceasefire deal to be at the most a PR stunt if not rendered pointless.

With Al-Baath under attack by regime and Iranian forces, which is only 2 km away from Israel’s Golan the infractions are far more serious.

Is the Regime Goading Israel into Attacking?

One possible strategy is for the regime to blame Israel for breaking the ceasefire.  If the regime continues to advance in towards the Israeli border in the Golan, the Israelis would have no choice but to resume attacking regime military targets as they were doing last week.

Any counter-attack by Israel to sure up their FSA allies will run into the growing presence of Russian military police. The ceasefire has essentially be flipped to place US allies in the region on the defensive.  This will continue until the Trump administration is able extricate itself from the already collapsing ceasefire.

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BREAKING: Syrian Rebels Shoot Down Regime Plane Near Ceasefire Zone

Reports from rebel forces in Syria indicate they have shot down a regime fighter jet near the Sweida Ceasefire Zone.

“The plane was shot down and crashed in regime-controlled territory. We have no information on the pilot,” said Fares al-Munjed, communications head for the Ahmad al-Abdo Forces, a rebel group which operates in Syria’s southeast.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights confirmed the plane was shot down.

In further violations of the truce, regime forces have continued to shoot in Daraa.

Will the ceasefire hold? 

Although Russia seems intent on sending military police into the ceasefire areas, by the time they get situated the ceasefire may already be over. From the very beginning the regime and Iran were apprehensive about the ceasefire as the two have been on a roll. With the rebels fighting back, the ceasefire is essentially over.

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Syrian Ceasefire Crumbles on Second Day as Regime and Iranian Allies Attack Rebels

Reports are streaming in that Syrian regime forces and its Iranian allies have already started violating the truce brokered between Trump and Putin at the G20 summit last week.  This would mean the much vaunted truce lasted all of 24 hours.

and again:

The fighting continued near Daraa and the Sweida, two areas covered by the ceasefire.  Below is a map of showing areas of control as the the ceasefire went into place.

With the ceasefire beginning to unravel even before the first Russian troops show up to monitor it, the question is how long before the Trump administration and Moscow decide to try to reorganize for another try. The regime and Iran will not stop while the wind is at their backs. They were closing in on capturing Daraa before the agreement and if they do now they will split two of the rebel areas in half and stand on the border of Jordan just a few kilometers from the Southern Golan.

Did Putin Outmaneuver Trump?

Despite Trump’s glowing victory speech after the agreement he “brokered” at the G20, it appears to be Putin that played the President Trump.  Afterall, Putin knew full well that Syria and Iran would not rest until they at least took all of Daraa if not more.  He also knew that his airforce was no longer needed to achieve Daraa’s conquest.

The question remains, will Trump admit he was out played? Or will he continue to spread the false notion that there is actually a ceasefire, when in fact there was none.  The faster the Trump administration realizes that no deal can be made with the regime, Iran, or even their Russian backers, the faster he can stave off total defeat.

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SYRIAN CEASEFIRE: Russia Now in Charge of Israel’s Border

The G20 meeting between Putin and Trump has already produced some immediate results.  According to reports the two sides agreed to implement a ceasefire for Southwest Syria, along the Israeli and Jordanian borders.

“A ceasefire will come into force in that zone (Syria’s south – Daraa and Quneitra) at 12.00 Damascus time on July 9,” Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. “The United States has made a commitment that all the groups present there will observe the ceasefire.”

The security in the de-escalation zone in the south of Syria will be ensured by the Russian military police in coordination with the US and Jordan.

“At first, the security around this zone will be ensured with the use of the personnel and resources of the Russian military police,” Lavrov said.

The ceasefire has brought a tenuous relief to Israel as the Syrian regime forces and their Iranian allies were marching straight for the Golan. Reports indicate that Iran was brought to in on the deal by Russia who has grown wary of the Iranian army’s involvement in the conflict.

The deal covers the Daraa, Quneitra, and Sweida areas of Syria.

Is the Ceasefire Really Good for Israel?

Although there is a feeling of relief in Israel due to the ceasefire, the agreement itself is still not without flaws. Israel has demanded that Russia not be alowed to control the ceasefire zones without US involvement.  More than that the ceasefire does not prevent movements by the Syrian regime or its allies to other parts of the country. This essentially means that the Syrian regime can prepare for the next round.

This puts Daraa and Quneitra under a immediate threat once the ceasfire breaks down as it most probably will.

So why did Trump sign such a precarious deal?  Trump was left with little choice. By not committing to ground troops himself, Trump had to put a stop to Syria/Iran’s move to the Meditereanean or risk a broader war with Israel getting involved. Trump found a willing partner in Russia’s Putin to make it happen.

Now that the deal appears to be going into effect on Sunday, the Trump administration has essentially given Putin what he wants. Israel will have a far more precarious future with Russia in the mix on its border.

The deal essentially puts Russia on the border with Israel. This will make it harder and harder for the Israeli military to strike back if it is hit by Syria or Hezbollah. Israeli sources say that Israel’s government is in intense discussions on the specifics of Russia’s role within the ceasefre zones.

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TWO FRONT WAR: Iran is Sharing ICBM Technology with North Korea

Donald Trump issued the following Tweet in reaction to this morning’s North Korean ICBM launch that had the potential to hit Alaska.

Despite the bravado, the Tweets do not hide the utter shock in North Korea’s ability to make serious advancements in its ICBM program.  Today’s test was supposed to be a year away.  This puts pressure on the Trump administration to respond accordingly.

Yet, how did the situation reach this point?  Disregarding the last 17 years of foolish attempts at convincing North Korea to stop, the last several months has seen their program has grown considerably.

Iran is Developing North Korea’s ICBM Technology

The partnership built around missile development and nuclear technology between Iran and North Korea has only grown stronger since the Obama administration reached a deal on Iran’s nuclear program.

North Korea tests missiles then sells the know how to Iran who in turn tests and improves the missile and then sends the updated specs back to North Korea.  This is the explanation of how the Kim Jong Un regime has reached impressive levels of missile capability is disconcerning and means that the Trump administration is essentiall fighting a two front war. It also means that the North Korean and Iranian issue are ver intertwined.

Israel Defense Analyst Tal Inbar wrote in May:

“The ‘accuracy revolution’ is a process we see in many countries’ rockets and missile forces,” Inbar wrote. “North Korea’s close ally, Iran, which bought the technical know-how on ballistic missiles from North Korea, introduced a new generation of ballistic missiles with a forward section containing a set of movable fins and guidance equipment.”

Taking on One Means Taking on Two

Micha Gefen reported in April about the interconnection of the two programs.

“It has been known for some time that Iranian missile technology was developed in North Korea.  Both regimes see the USA as their number one enemy and have worked together to build a situation where they would pose a serious threat to the USA. To most observers North Korea and Iran are in constant coordination as can be seen from last week’s ballistic missile test in Ira, which followed North Korea’s launch of four missiles near Japan.

Researchers from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies published a research paper (.pdf) in January 2016 outlining Iran’s past and present military dealings with North Korea, concluding that “the signs of military and scientific cooperation between Iran and North Korea suggest that Pyongyang could have been involved in Tehran’s nuclear and ballistic-missile program, and that state-run trading companies may have assisted in critical aspects of Iran’s illicit nuclear-related activities.””

If America and its allies want to deal with North Korea, the Iranian advance accross Syria and its threat to the Israeli Golan must be taken into consideration.

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TRUMP EFFECT: Israel Expands Building in Jerusalem

Israel announced today, that thousands of buildings in Jerusalem whose construction was frozen during the Obama administration have now been given to go ahead to be built. The 2,300 units were frozen in 2010 after then Vice-President Biden’s visit to Israel.

With the shelving yesterday of the United Jerusalem bill, today’s announcement has injected some optimism into Prime Minister Netanyahu’s government. Furthermore the approval also comes with the go ahead to evict 100’s of illegal Arab squatters in areas of the city where for years, Arabs have built without permits.

The most important part of theannouncement is that it approves 13 homes and a giant yeshiva complex in the Shimon Hatzadik neighborhood.  The neighborhood was purchased in 1876 by the committee of the Sephardic community and the Ashkenazi Assembly of Israel.  This community was expelled by Arabs before the creation of the State of Irael. In recent years a small Jewish community has been renewed in the area near the tomb of Shimon Hatzaddik.

The obvious connection of Trump ‘s stance on Israel being the catalyst for the building is hard to ignore.

Build Jerusalem Fund Banner

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Syrian Troops with Hezbollah Clear Out Al-Baath, Is the Next Stop Israel?

Syria and Hezbollah are reporting that they have successfully cleaned Al-Baath city from rebel and Jihadi forces.  Al-Baath has been the target of intense fighting between rebel and regime forces for over a week. The city is strategic for its location closer to the Damascus-Daraa road which has been the main supply line for the regime forces fighting against Free Syrian Army associated militias in Daraa.

Al-Baath itself, is the headquarters for the Iranian and Hezbollah contingents in Western Syria.  The city’s fall gives the regime and its Iranian ally direct access to the Quneitra province.  It also forces the Israeli government into a bit of a quandary. Up until the Israeli army has opted for using retaliation strikes against the regime as a way of tacitly aiding the rebels as well as offering humanitarian aid.  It has worked until now.  With Syria and Iran now able to move within the Israeli buffer zone around the Golan, Prime Minister Netanyahu will be forced to decide whether to enter the Syrian Civil War directly or allow the Shiite juggernaut to take up positions on the Israeli border.

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ROCKET ATTACK: Calm With Syria Lasts Less than a Day

At ten last night a rocmet from Syria hit Israeli territory in the Golan. The IDF reported no injuries. The attack wrecked the short calm in attacks from Syria.

The question in military circles is whether the IDF will use this spillover to attack Syrian regime forces like before. The Israeli backed Syrian militias known as the FSA is in the middle of a huge operation to free the Damascus-Daraa road from regime and Iranian forces.

Israel has been lightly aiding the FSA with attacks when hit first by stray rockets.

 

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[watch] Israel Defends Jewish Connection to Hebron and the Cave of the Patriarchs

With UNESCO set to vote on the status of the Cave of the Patriarchs, Deputy Foreign Minister Tzipi Hotovely defended Jewish rights to our second holiest location to the foreign ministers whose countries sit on the UNESCO committee yesterday.

UNESCO voted on accepting “Palestine” as a member in 2011 and since then used that decision to help erase Jewish history and connection to Israel.