Author: Gavriel Dan

Gavriel Dan spent a number of years covering social movements in Israel, the wider middle east and Europe. He is considered an expert in embedding himself with various groups and causes in order to get accurate and rich information.
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ISIS Fires Rockets from Gaza Into Southern Israel, The IDF Responds

Late last night Israel reported that rockets were fired from Gaza into the Southern Israel at Shaar HaNegev.  There were no injuries.

It has been comfirmed that it was indeed ISIS who fired the rockets.

The Israeli Air Force launched airstrikes on two military infrastructures belonging to Hamas in northern and southern Gaza.

 

Although an ISIS linked group fired the rockets, Israel like all rocket attacks from the Gaza Strip holds Hamas responsible.

Prelude to a Larger Conflict?

As the border with Syria turns hot its easy to imagine a connection between the incidents.  In this case they are unrelated.

With ISIS getting battered in Syria, their next focus will be either to use the Sinai to attack Egypt or cause problems in Southern Israel. Neither option will rescue ISIS from its demise, but that will not stop them from creating as much chaos as possible before they are finished.

Israel’s response was measured out of fear of triggering a war in the South at the same time as the Syrian regime and Iran approach the Northern border.

However, with Summer upon the Middle East anything is possible.  Even an all out war.

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SYRIA CRISIS CONTINUES: Gunfire Spills Over into Israel Three Days in a Row, IDF Responds

Gunfire from Syria was reported this morning (Monday) in the Golan Heights, for the third consecutive day. As in the past two days, there are no casualties or damage.

The IDF ordered farmers in the Quneitra Valley to evacuate their orchards and closed the road leading to Ein Zivan, due to heavy smoke in the area as a result of the fighting in Syria.

Security sources reported hearing IDF tank fire, ostensibly in response to Syrian territory, but said that “the reports of an attack in Syria are false reports.” It added that “there were no indications and risks in the systems, and no alarm was sounded.”

Minister of Defense Avigdor Lieberman said at the start of yesterday’s cabinet meeting:

“We have a lot of prophets who predict war in the north or the south, we have no intention of initiating a military move – neither in the south nor in the north.” However, he clarified that “we are not going to give a pass on anything, everything will have a powerful response.”

“I wanted to warn the people in Damascus, whoever wants to turn the area there into a Hizbullah base, give it another thought,” added Lieberman. “We will not accept that Syria becomes another base that will become a front against Israel.” 

As Syria and Iranian backed militias gain a foothold in the Quneitra district, Israel will be forced to openly back the rebels in the area or enter the war themselves.  If Syria and Iran gain access to the Golan, Israel’s security would be imperiled due to the Golan’s strategic vantage point.

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Syrian Fires Mortars Into Israel…Again, Will Israel Strike Back?

The IDF is now reporting that the Golan has suffered another mortar attack. There have been no injuries.  This follows a mortar attack on Saturday, which caused the Israeli Airforce to retaliate attacking Syrian military positions who were engaged in fighting Al-Nusra.

“We will respond strongly, resolutely and with level-headedness to any such case,” Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman said. “As far as we are concerned the Assad regime is responsible for what occurs in its territory and will continue to suffer the consequences if such events recur.”

The attack today may not cause the IAF to attack back, but as fighting ensues on Israel’s border the Israeli military will have to reconsider their involvement. This is especially true if the Syrian government succeeds in pushing rebel forces and ISIS.

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Justice Minister Shaked Takes on EU Funded Anti-Israel NGO

Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked called on Israel’s attorney general Avichai Mandelblit to open a criminal investigation against “Bladna,” an Israeli-Arab non-profit organization that she says incites Druze youth against IDF enlistment.

“Incitement against IDF enlistment is not only a violation of the law, but harms the cultural fabric and ethos of Israeli society,” said Shaked. “It is inconceivable that this illegal activity occurs under the noses and with the backing of elected officials.”

Shaked’s statement came in response to a report released by the Zionist organization Im Tirtzu, which claimed that Bladna’s anti-enlistment activities were in violation of the law because they targeted Druze youth who are required to serve in the IDF.

According to the report, Arab members of Knesset including Joint List head Ayman Odeh have publicly supported the organization and have participated in their events at recent as April 2017. The report also notes that Bladna’s donors include the US-based New Israel Fund and the European Union, which donated nearly 2,000,000 NIS to the group in 2015.

Druze members of Knesset also responded to the report.

d“I am proud of the members of the Druze community who enlist in the IDF and sanctify the ‘blood covenant’ that exists between the Druze community and the State of Israel,” said Minister of Communications Ayoob Kara.

“I will not allow for any organization, whether political or extra-parliamentary, to harm the unique and strong social fabric created over the years by inciting against IDF enlistment.”

Yisrael Beiteinu MK Hamad Amar, Deputy Speaker of the Knesset, pointed to the high percentage of Druze enlistment, calling their loyalty to the state “unquestionable.”

“Not Bladna nor any other organization will be able to uproot the deep and strong connection between the Druze community and the State of Israel,” said Amar.

Kulanu MK Akram Hasson also responded to the report by requesting the non-profit registrar to disband Blanda. “They will not succeed in stoking the flames of quarrel between brothers,” said Hasson.

Chairman of the Subcommittee for Personnel in the IDF, MK Amir Ohana (Likud), announced his intention to convene an emergency committee session to discuss the findings of the report.

“We cannot allow for the haters of Israel to harm the IDF and its soldiers,” said Ohana. “These despicable individuals are trying to discourage IDF enlistment of the Druze community, which includes the best of our warriors and heroes.”

Im Tirtzu CEO Matan Peleg emphasized how the New Israel Fund and European governments are trying to “brainwash” Arab youth against integrating in Israeli society.

“It is inconceivable that anti-Israel incitement can penetrate unhindered into Israeli schools,” said Peleg. “It is important to note how the ones to suffer the most are the Arab youth who are being brainwashed to oppose the society in which they live.”

“We are calling on the Attorney General to open an investigation against this foreign agent organization, for both inciting the Druze sector against IDF enlistment and for engaging in seditious activity by calling on an entire population of society to oppose the state.”

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Iranian Made Drone Downed By American Forces, Does the US Have a Coherent Policy in Syria?

Late yesterday, US Coalition forces shot down an Iranian made UAV comandeered by the Syrian military.

“The armed pro-regime Shaheed-129 [unmanned aerial vehicle] was shot down by a U.S. F-15E Strike Eagle at approximately 12:30 a.m. after it displayed hostile intent and advanced on Coalition forces,” the coalition command said in a press release.

“The Coalition has made it clear to all parties publically [sic] and through the de-confliction line with Russian forces that the demonstrated hostile intent and actions of pro-regime forces toward Coalition and partner forces in Syria conducting legitimate counter-ISIS operations will not be tolerated,” it said.

The US and their allied partners in Syria still assume the deconfliction zones layed out with Russia have remained in affect.  This stands in contrast with Russia’s own statement after the downing of the Syrian jet. Russia has made it clear that all foreign warplanes in Syrian airspace will be shot down.

Is There an Actual US Policy in Syria

With each passing day an incident it has become apparent that the US policy in Syria is non-existant.  This is not to say they have nothing in the works, but they have been caught of-guard by the lightening speed movement of Russian backed pro-regime forces and Iranian Shiite Militias and are trying to push back.

With Daraa falling and regime forces using the Raqqa battle to push Eastward, the US and their coalition forces need find a fast way to push the regime back without causing the war to turn into something much larger.  So far no remedy has been found.

David Gardner from the Financial Times said the following in an opinion piece about the situation:

“The limited initiatives to somewhat attenuate the Syrian disaster are almost all coming from Russia: a tripartite (and ineffective) ceasefire with Iran and Turkey; the “de-escalation zones” Moscow proposed in May, albeit in the four areas where the Assads still face strong challenges from rebels; even a constitutional blueprint to decentralise power in Syria. The US has come up with next to nothing. The common denominator in these three Russian initiatives may be — some western diplomats involved in Syria suggest — that President Vladimir Putin is groping towards an exit strategy from Syria. If so, nothing Mr Trump is engaged in looks likely to help him find one.”

One counter to Gardner’s assertion about Russia’s involvement is that Putin ever the chess player has been playing both sides in the war in order to create an underlying need to entrap the Americans in a quagmire not easily extricated.

While it is clear what happened over the weekend and late yesterday are ominous, they are more examples of an administration being handed a hot potato by its precedessor and not getting up to speed fast enough to handle it.

While Trump may not have moved fast enough to counter Syrian and Iranian advancement in Syria this is more of a product of clear indecisiveness in being ready to push back against the Russians in their desire to control the Levant.

 

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CRAFTED BY TRUMP? Saudi King Names his 31 Year Old Son as Successor, Upending Political Order

As the battle lines between the Sunni Alliance being crafted by the Trump White House and the Iranian-Russian coalition harden, the Saudi King Salman has done the unbelievable named his 31 year old son as his successor.  In doing so he stripped 56 year old Crown Prince Nayaf his nephew of the potential to become monarch.

Al Arabiya television reported that the promotion of the prince was approved by the kingdom’s Allegiance Council with 31 of 34 members approving, and that the king had called for a public pledging of loyalty to Mohammed bin Salman on Wednesday evening in Mecca. The surprise announcement follows 2-1/2 years of already major changes in Saudi Arabia, which stunned allies in 2015 by launching a war in Yemen, cutting old energy subsidies and in 2016 proposing partly privatizing state oil company Aramco.

Mohammed bin Salman the King’s son is largely credited with the successful outreach to the Trump administration as well as the strategy behind the Qatar blockade. He is extremely ani-Iran and although young commands a vast portfolio in the government.

The current King is the last of the three sons of the original King Saud.  It has been clear for a while that the next generation would not follow the same royal ascension process.

What Does this Mean for Israel?

As Trump’s masterplan for the region begins to take shape, the major pillar of it is not peace between Israel and the Palestinians, but rather peace between Saudi Arabia and Israel. This is something big and can in time reshape the entire Middle East. To do this, Trump needs someone young, innovative, and easy to work with. The King’s son seems to be that guy.

As the Kingdom shifts from an overt backer of Islamist ideology (what it does covertly is something else) its relationship to Israel as the region’s leading technology hub and economic anchor is crucial.

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THE STRUGGLE FOR ISRAEL: EU and Arab MK’s Work Together to Undermine the IDF

Arab members of Knesset from the Joint List are violating the law by encouraging and assisting an organization that incites Arab youth not to enlist in IDF service, according to a new report published by the Zionist organization Im Tirtzu.

The report focuses on Bladna, a state-recognized non-profit organization whose activities include holding conferences, seminars and workshops dedicated to discouraging Arab youth from enlisting in the IDF and national service. Much of Bladna’s activities take place inside schools.

According to Section 109 of Israel’s Penal Code, a person is liable to five years imprisonment if he “incited or induced a person liable to service in an armed force not to serve in it or not to report for a military.”

The report explains how Bladna’s efforts to discourage the enlistment of Druze youth, who are liable for IDF service, represent a clear violation of the law. One example cited in the report was a 2016 “History of Palestinian Druze” seminar hosted by Bladna in the Druze town of Daliyat al-Karmel, which stressed the “importance of refusing to enlist.”

In addition, the findings raise concerns that Bladna’s activities also constitute as acts of sedition, which is defined by the Penal Code as “the promotion of conflict and enmity between different parts of the population.”

Arab members of Knesset have publicly supported the organization and have participated in their events. In April 2017, Joint List Chairman MK Ayman Odeh, MK Haneen Zoabi, MK Yousef Jabareen and MK Masud Ganaim participated in a Bladna-hosted a workshop in a Kfar Kanna school that focused on discouraging IDF enlistment.

Odeh’s involvement in the organization goes as far back as 2010, when he spoke at several Bladna conferences and was introduced as the Chairman of the Committee for Combating National Service and All Forms of Enlistment. In January 2017, Odeh voiced his support for refusing to enlist in a Twitter post.

The report also draws attention to Bladna’s funding, which include the US-based New Israel Fund and European governments. According to details obtained from Israel’s Non-Profit Registrar, in 2015 Bladna received nearly 2 million NIS from the European Union.

Chairman of the Subcommittee for Personnel in the IDF, MK Amir Ohana (Likud), announced his intention to convene an emergency committee session to discuss the findings of the report.

“We cannot allow for the haters of Israel to harm the IDF and its soldiers,” said Ohana. “These despicable individuals are trying to discourage IDF enlistment of the Druze community, which includes the best of our warriors and heroes.”

“The police must open a criminal investigation against those involved in Bladna, including MKs Odeh, Zoabi and Ganaim whose anti-Israel activity is in violation of two sections of the Penal Code: incitement to evasion of duty and sedition.”

Im Tirtzu CEO Matan Peleg emphasized how the New Israel Fund and European governments are trying to “brainwash” Arab youth against integrating in Israeli society.

“It is inconceivable that anti-Israel incitement can penetrate unhindered into Israeli schools,” said Peleg. “It is important to note how the ones to suffer the most are the Arab youth who are being brainwashed to oppose the society in which they live.”

“We are calling on the Attorney General to open an investigation against this foreign agent organization, for both inciting the Druze sector against IDF enlistment and for engaging in seditious activity by calling on an entire population of society to oppose the state.”

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US TO RUSSIA: We Will Defend Ourselves in Syria

The Syrian conflict has now spiraled put of to control to the point where Russia and the US are an incident away from WW3.

Sean Spicer, White House Press Secretary responded to Russia’s statement on shooting down US planes in Syria with this comment:

“Obviously, we’re going to do what we can to protect our interests,” Spicer said. “We will always preserve the right of self-defense.”

This is far more serious than anyone wants to admit. The US has no intent on keeping its fighter jets out of the sky since it would open up the SDF and YPG to heavily armed Syrian forces. Of course that is exactly what they want. Without the US providing air coverage, Syrian govenment forces would be abe to push them out of Syria.

Essentially Syria has now become a very bad game of  chicken.  The only question is whether someone will flinch.

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SYRIA ON THE BRINK: Russia Will Target US Airplanes in Syria

In response to the downing of a Syrian warplane by US forces yesterday, the Russian Defense Ministry said it will treat U.S.-led coalition planes in Syria, west of the Euphrates River, as targets.

Furthermore, Russia said it is suspending coordination with the United States in Syria. This coordination has kept the two super powers from direct conflict since 2015.

Is Direct Conflict Coming?

In one word, yes.  Without the deconfliction deal the chances of a direct conflict between the US and Russia is much higher.  Look for Putin to take steps in aiding the Syrian regime against US forces in Eastern Syria.

With a deconfliction agreement finished between the US and Russia, chances are Putin will scrap his deal with Israel.  This imperils the ability for Israel to defend itself in the Galilee and Golan.

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WAR ESCALATES: Why Did Iran Just Shoot Missiles Into Syria?

The war in Syria has gone from intensified to explosive as the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced that it fired several ground o ground missiles in from Western Iran into Syria’s Deir Ezzor region in the country’s East.

The purpose, according to the Iranians was a realiation for the attack on Tehran by ISIS on June 7th.

Most likely the Iranian missile attack on Eastern Syria was far more a message for the US coalition than a retaliation against ISIS.

Three points to consider:

  1. The proximity in time to the downing of a Syrian Warplane makes the missile attack a likely soft-retaliation for the US attack within sovereign Syria.
  2. The Iranians need a powerplay as the SDF/YPG are moving South and North in a rush to pick up the pieces as ISIS falls apart. The message is clear: “Don’t expect a post ISIS Syria to be a cake walk.”
  3. Iran wanted to send a message to Israel: “We can already reach you.”

As the Syrian war seems to be exploding in a far more dangerous and chaotic way all the issues surrounding the war are coming to a head.  The next move is now Trump’s…is he willing to stop Iran?