Israel Behind the News [Dec 9, 2015]

Terror War Continues in Samaria

The latest attack occurred outside the community of Avnei Hafetz.  Residents of the Old City of Jerusalem had been visiting their daughter in Aveni Hafetz when their car came under fire.  The idea that these attacks are lone wolf has become preposterous. The government has in word moved on from this theory, but has not been able to crack the forward momentum of the Arab war across the Land of Israel.  Terror is merely a tactic to be employed to instill fear in the wider public.  Treating terror with band aid or reactive measures will not work.  Only a complete offensive campaign will crush the Jihadist cells and force Abu Mazen (aka Mahmoud Abbas) to sue for peace.  Sadly the government is far reaching this conclusion.

Obama Has Publicly Moved on From Peace in His Time

Obama might have used his time with President Reuven Rivlin repairing his relationship with Israel by saying all the platitudes necessary, but he has squandered years trying to push something on both sides that has no reality on the ground. Sadly if Obama wanted real peace, the One State Solution is the only way forward.

Bibi is Walking a Tight Rope by Meeting Donald Trump

Although the meeting is three weeks away, furor over Trump’s opposition to allowing Muslim immigration while global Jihad is on the march has drawn the ire of just about everyone in the elite wing of both the Democrats and Republicans. Bibi cannot cancel the meeting and it is not his style.  Whether or not Trump always presents issues in a nuanced manner, a vast amount of Israelis agree with the current Republican front runner. Bibi understands this and while he needs to balance the meeting with some PC statement in order to assuage the White House, the meeting will go forward.

Iran and the Jabal Al Druze Fiasco

The political and military echelon in Israel have often stated that Israel is staying neutral in the Syrian civil war.  Any attacks on Syrian targets were meant to prevent game changing weaponry from falling into the hands of Hezbollah. After all, they insisted, our enemies are killing each other. No one seemed to be able to foresee direct Russian involvement and with it Iranian ground troops moving closer to Israel.

When the dust settles between Russia and Turkey their ISIS allies, Iranian, Syrian, and Hezbollah forces will in fact attack Israel. Despite what the leadership will tell us, their “neutrality” during this war enabled Iranian troops to fill the void left open on the Syrian side of the Golan. This tactical blunder on Israel’s part could have been thwarted as late as this past June. Jabal Al Druze or otherwise known as Druze Mountain is a district and home to a large portion of the Syrian Druze population situated East of the Golan Heights on the border of Jordan.  It is a mountainous region and until the civil war the population remained 100% loyal to Assad.  

Jabal Al Druze

 

With chaos reigning, ISIS forces began closing in on Jabal Al Druze in June and since the Druze are considered apostates by the Jihadists, many experts believed they would be killed on mass. Israel’s own Druze population wanted more to be done and yet nothing overt was undertaken.  

All of this was before Russian involvement, when Assad looked as if he was finished. Israel’s opportunity to push their security line far to the East was missed and now a resurgent Assad can once again count on the loyalty of the Druze there.

One of the reasons why Israel did not go into Jabal Al Druze was because the Israeli elite abhor the appearance of seeming like the aggressor.  The problem with this approach and especially in this situation, was that the Druze really looked under threat and given Israel’s own loyal Druze populace and the blood bond many of them feel with the people of Israel, extending the IDF’s control over this area would have been wholly explainable to the international community.

By the way, it should be noted that Jabal Al Druze was actually an autonomous region from 1921 to 1936 when Syria was under French control.

Timing is Everything

Five months later, and the Middle East has changed into something unrecognizable. Timing is everything in war and staying neutral is never an option within a fluid situation.  Bibi Netanyahu’s strategy has always been to wait this out, but opportunities are lost when you don’t move in time. The loss of moving Israel’s security line East, by harnessing a thankful Druze population in Southern Syria, now means Iran is at Israel’s border.

How fast the next stage of the conflict progresses is anyone’s guess, but if the last 2 months are an indication, staying out of Syria is no longer an option.

Israel Behind the News [Dec 8, 2015]

 

Netanyahu Appoints his National Security Adviser as Next Head of the Mossad

Bibi’s strategic aim has always been to steer Israel through what he sees as a storm that has no early signs of abating. This means that he needs people that share specific tactical approaches that enables the State of Israel to pivot and react to events as they happen and to do so quietly.  Once again the analogy of a captain steering a ship through rough waters is perfect.  The new Mossad chief is uniquely poised to do this.

Huckabee Tells the Truth

Mike Huckabee is one of the most unabashed Israel supporters around. The fact is, the expulsion from Gaza was done at gunpoint.  Sure there were “nice soldiers” interacting with the communities, but if there would been any push back, special commandos circled the premises to ensure everything was carried out.

No where else in the World do you have an example of a Nation forcefully removing law abiding citizens from territory that is later abandoned and given to a sworn enemy. The idea of unilateral withdrawal based on the Gaza concept has been so thoroughly discredited now that essentially speaking no Israeli government would think about taking such measures again. Given the fact that the Arabs living in Judea and Samaria and Gaza are in no place to negotiate, the prospects of any deal are 0 directly due to the Gaza debacle.

 

 

Putin on the Move

It is clear that Putin sees his mission to exterminate ISIS as well as the Syrian opposition to Assad.  To Putin they are one and the same. This entails Russia successfully destroying Turkey’s supply lines to their ISIS allies. Right now Russia is doing this in the Western part of Syria by obliterating the Turkmen bases in the Kızıldağ district on the border of Turkey.  After Kızıldağ the next logical place for Putin to focus on would be the remaining supply route from Turkey into Syria and that would be from the border of Turkey and Syria near Jarabulus a Syrian city that has a population 11,500.  The road from there leads South along the Euphrates River to the Islamic State’s capital of Raqqah.

Jarabulus Google Maps

If Putin and Syrian ground forces continue to advance against both ISIS and the Turkish supply lines, ISIS will be crippled, leaving only Iraq as a solid territory under their rule. Yet, that too could be under fire soon as the Iraqi government has asked Russia to step in and kick Turkish forces from Northern Iraq.

If Russia succeeds with the help of Syrian and Iranian ground forces, Turkey will end up with an emboldened Kurdish presence to its South as well as a generational setback to Erdogan’s grand designs to be the neo-Sultan of the Middle East. The Sunni World would be in upheavel and the Middle East and the bulk of the world’s oil supply would be held by Russia and the Shiites (save for Saudi Arabia).

Closing the Bosphorous is Turkey’s Only Recourse

Below is the relevant text from the Montreux Convention Articles 19, 20, and 21 of agreed upon in 1936:

Article 19.

“In time of war, Turkey not being belligerent, warships shall enjoy complete freedom of transit and navigation through the Straits under the same conditions as those laid down in Article 10 to 18.”

“Vessels of war belonging to belligerent Powers shall not make any capture, exercise the right of visit and search, or carry out any hostile act in the Straits.”

Article 20.

“In time of war, Turkey being belligerent, the provisions of Articles 10 to 18 shall not be applicable; the passage of warships shall be left entirely to the discretion of the Turkish Government.”

Article 21.

“Should Turkey consider herself to be threatened with imminent danger of war she shall have the right to apply the provisions of Article 20 of the present Convention.”

We are all aware by now that Turkey has been slowing down Russian vessels and with that a Russian warship had a soldier standing on it with a shoulder guided missile in plain site. According to the above treaty Russia broke article 19 and Turkey very well may use that in the coming days to close the straits.  Putin will have to reopen them by force setting the stage for a broad war against NATO. Erdoan is banking on NATO stepping in.  Putin believes they will at the most make a token gesture out of Europe’s fear of having their gas cut in the dead of winter.

Of course Obama and the USA are stuck between two converging realities.  With the ISIS attack in San Bernadino last week, Obama would be hard pressed to defend Turkey given Russia’s proof that Erdogan has been assisting ISIS and then again not defending Turkey would mean that Russia and Iran would be in control of much of the Middle East and the Black Sea with Russia having an acute ability to dictate the future of Europe.  Right now Obama seems frozen or pre-occupied in order to turn the domestic situation to some sort of advantage for his agenda.

Iran Filling the Void in the Syrian Golan

While Russia makes moves to flatten Turkey and their aspirations, Iran is using their tactical pact with Russia to take over the positions ISIS and Al Nusra once had in the Syrian side of the Golan. Israel’s leaders have made bellicose statements, but Iran stands undeterred as their pincher move is rapidly set up. Israel has one move and that is to strike now while Russia is involved in the North, but that brings another set consequences. The die is cast. The next moves on the chessboard of the now expanding Syrian conflict is Israel’s and Turkey’s.

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Israel Behind the News [Dec 7, 2015]

ISIS attacks in Israel ‘just a matter of time’

The headline should really say that ISIS attacks are already here.  There is no difference between the Palestinian Street’s ideology and that of ISIS.  The only thing the Arabs in the Land of Israel are missing are gruesome videos and black flags, but unfortunately that will come.

The idea that some are proliferating (those in the international press) that somehow this is all just a cycle of violence, are purposely obfuscating the fact that most attacks from Jewish youth against Arabs, happen locally as retaliation for initial Arab violence left unchecked by security services. While not condoning anarchy, those attacks are far different than the deliberate violence perpetrated by ISIS minded individuals and their leadership in the Land of Israel.

Hanuka in Kaifeng

There is no greater sign of Israel’s light bursting forth than with the return of our Israelite brother from the East. The Kaifeng community symbolizes perseverance and faith in order to rise above all.

“The Chinese Jews take their inspiration from the Maccabees,” said Shavei Israel chairman Michael Freund, referring to the Jewish heroes of the Hanukkah story. “Even in far-off Kaifeng, the light of Jewish survival continues to burn brightly. Kaifeng’s Jewish descendants are a living link between China and the Jewish people.”

As Jews lost around the world become inspired and return, there is a growing sense that this immense awakening is having a profound effect on Israel and the globe.

Bibi’s Bravado Continues

The Swedes are making it easy for Bibi Netanyahu to toughen up. Then again since the fractured EU is limping these days and Israel has increased trade with the East, it has given Bibi and the government some needed maneuverability.

Israel Behind the News [Dec 6,2015]

Unprecedented: Supreme Court authorized remand extension in absence of minor detainee

The GSS Interrogated Detainees Relatives

The ongoing usage of court orders to effectively silence young Israelis by keeping them in jail without charges is getting out of hand. The GSS (General Security Services) Jewish Division has a history of creating smoke when there is no way to make an actual fire.  With thin evidence, clear alibis, the GSS would rather sow division and accusation than follow normative rules of law. Essentially the GSS is a leftover dinosaur from days gone by, but is now used as a political tool by the regime.

Netanyahu: The other side needs to decide if they want peace

Netanyahu’s clear push back against John Kerry’s remarks signals something much deeper than typical bravado. in the waning influence of Western Europe and the USA on the Middle East, Kerry’s remarks almost seem like nonsense. Israel’s position as it stands in the world is far stronger than Kerry would have everyone believe. Netanyahu knows most Israeli’s are behind on these issues.

Ya’alon: US is ceding leadership in Mideast to Russia, Iran

Despite Yaalon’s poor handling of security inside the territories and his propensity for anti-settler remarks, he is right on the money in the above respect.  The USA is ceding ground to Russia in the Middle East and although there is a tacit agreement between Putin and Bibi, it is not at all clear where all of this will end up. Unlike Bibi and others, who are comfortable moving East, Yaalon’s old guard view is nervous about the prospect of a Middle East without American involvement.

Turkey and Russia – On the Verge of War

Those reading this have probably never heard of Kızıldağ. You cannot find it on Google Maps, but it is about to become one of the most important regions in the simmering Turkish Russian conflict. Kızıldağ is a region in Northern Syria, only a mere 5 km from the Turkish border and is home to ethnic Turkmen aligned with Turkey. Today Russia and Assad’s forces retook the mountainous region back after 3 years.  

Why is this key? This region is a lynchpin for Turkey’s supply route to Syria.  Of course there are other ways over the Turkish border, but Kızıldağ has been Turkey’s forward position inside Syria. The mountainous region gives Russia and Syria command over the Turkman and access to Southern Turkey.

Yayladağı Google Maps

This ratchets up the pressure on Turkey to a whole new level.  Before they had to deal with Russian sorties and now just over 10 days since the infamous downing of the Russian SU-24, Russia is on the ground along with Syrian troops alongside Turkey’s Southern border. Turkey will not let this strategic area go so easily and will need to recover for this tactical error. Turkey is losing ground and cannot afford to allow a Shiite crescent to be formed just South of it.

Closing the Bosporous is Upon Us

If reports coming out of Turkey can be believed, the Turks have decided to hold 5 Russian cargo ships in the Black Sea instead of letting them travel through the Bosporous.  Of course this does not equal shutting the straits down to Russian sea traffic, but it sets the stage for that. Putin will not let the Bosporous be shut down. With only the Montreux treaty behind him Erdogan is playing chicken with his Northern neighbor and it does not seem that Putin is about to blink.

Putin will consider the closing of the Bosphorous an act of War. So how close are we to a far broader conflict?  Very close. The fact that NATO has situated itself in Istanbul and the Black sea in order to protect Turkey means that we are about to reach the point of no return. This coupled with the fact that Iraq is calling on Turkish troops to immediately leave Iraq just makes the situation that much more dicey.

Where Does Israel Fit In?

Israel has stayed quiet on the Russian and Turkish conflict. Israel knows there are no good guys in this. The maneuvering and cascading towards open conflict leaves Israel with few strategic choices. On one hand Russia is aligned with Iran and Syria, which presents itself as a complete security nightmare and on the other hand Turkey and NATO is at the very least complicit in boosting ISIS which is an equally scary proposition.

One thing is clear, Israel is still hitting deep into Syrian territory in order to destroy advanced weapons bound for Hezbollah. The Russians seem to be ok with this.  Perhaps Israel has in turn given Putin their word to stay neutral in the coming conflict. With Turkey and Russia nose to nose, Israel may have to soon make some uncomfortable decisions. Something that Israel’s government rather not do.

Hevron: Where Jihad Was Born

My first visit to Hevron in the summer of 2001 put me face to face with what would become a sign of things to come for the world over the last 15 years. I was a very different person in those days. 23 years old and idealistic about learning Torah in the Holy Land.  The second intifada had already been raging for the better part of the previous year and Sharon had yet to undertake Operation Defensive Shield.  In those days Arafat’s Fatah controlled up to the main road and Gross square right across the street to the Jewish neighborhood of Avraham Avinu.

The world was still silent. The World Trade Center had yet to be taken down.  George Bush was focused on other things. Israel was the epicenter of terror. Before my Shabbat in Hevron I had been one of many who had run down to Sbarro’s in downtown Jerusalem after it was blown up. Despite seeing the aftermath there, nothing would prepare me for what should have been a quick walk back to where I was staying from our Shabbat meal.

A few others and I started our walk back from the Beit Hadassah neighborhood down the main street. A few moments passed and then like drilling in a construction site a hail of bullets were sent at us.  We did the only thing we knew how to do…we ran. I still remember feeling the bullets go passed me and down by my feet. Miraculously we made it to a concrete barrier, diving behind it. A soldier was there and as the bullets whizzed passed all of us, he told us to run.  We reached the Avraham Avinu neighborhood.  The bullets continued, hitting the sandbags that were up in those days. The IDF returned fire and that is how it went for a better part of the night.  The next afternoon and evening was more of the same.

Today, Hevron is different.  New neighborhoods have grown.  Children play in the streets. The army is based in positions well inside the Arab areas.  There are problems and tensions, but no more machine gun fire or wanton killing. The Jews of Hevron have continued to be resilient in reestablishing King David’s first capital city.

Hevron, A Jewish City

The Jewish community in Hevron is ancient.  From the time of Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob through the first and second commonwealth, Hevron played a central role to the Nation of Israel. The Jewish community lived there until the year 1929, when their Arab neighbors turned on them and massacred them. The Hevron Riots were part of the larger 1929 Arab pogroms that saw Jews being pushed out of historically Jewish neighborhoods in the Old City and the Kfar Shiloach (today Silwan).

Jews returned to Hevron in 1967 and for the first time in 500 years were allowed to enter the Cave of the Patriarchs where our forefathers and mothers are buried. The community has expanded and grown since then.

A Microcosm of the Global Struggle With Ishmael

In the last 15 years since those tense and very dangerous moments in Hevron, the world has become engulfed in multiple wars and a seemingly unstoppable rising flood of Jihadist terror. The Arab world seeks to challenge the root of monotheism and claim it as their own.  Their fight in many ways burst into a new stage in 1929. There they killed the “people of the book.” It is this root between Isaac and Ishmael that is at the heart of the struggle here and around the world.  Hevron is that root. It is where our fathers established their covenant with the Almighty and David established his Kingdom.  Despite all of our setbacks we have returned to our roots in Hevron and grown.  For this Ishamel is angry for in his collective mind the root is his, but his root is chaos and destruction, the Jihad.

In many ways what we have witnessed over the last decade and a half and especially in the last few months with the attacks in the Sinai, Paris, and now San Bernadino is that the Jihad of 1929 is live and well throughout the world. It is a mentality the Jewish people have faced since our return to our ancient homeland as a sovereign entity. It is this reason why we have no choice but to hold onto our roots.  We must embrace the ethics and morality of our fathers and most importantly attach ourselves to the Creator.  For this reason Hevron is key.  It is our source and corridor to our past and an example of how the Jewish people can be resilient and come out on top.       

In order to defeat the army of Ishmael the World must reconnect to the source of its faith.  That faith is rooted in the Jewish presence in Hevron.  Following the Jewish Nation’s example in its ancient birthright the world can overcome this chaotic time and build a new future.                             

Israel Behind the News [Dec 3, 2015]

Israeli Youth Said to be Arrested for the Duma Arson

Haven’t we heard this before?  Months ago they threw countless young Israelis into administrative detention with no charges.  Many of those youth are still behind bars. So if they were involved how come no charges were brought and if they were not involved since supposedly there is a new arrest, why haven’t Meir Ettinger, Mordechai Meyer, and Eviatar Slonim and many others been released? It is interesting to note that this new announcement comes on the heels of the UN complaining that the government still has not found the perpetrators.  24 hours later there is a new arrest. There is no coincidence here. Unfortunately they have not brought any evidence to prove the state’s side. If this turns out that after all this time they are just trying to simply beat a confession out of these guys to please the UN, it will come back to haunt the security apparatus.

Israel Fight Back Against EU Anti-Semitism

The government is actually handling the situation with the EU labeling excellently. Part of the reaction is do in part because the EU as an international player is losing its leverage in the face of an ascendant Russia.  Also the Eastern half of the EU seems to be against the move.  Given that Israel finally has some maneuverability.

Israel Moves to Destroy Homes of Arab Terrorists

Many people felt house demolitions would spark a wider conflict with the Arabs living in Israel.  However, the only thing that seemed to happen were some local clashes after the apartment complex belonging to the ring leader behind the Henkin murder was destroyed.  It still remains to be seen how much of a deterrent this really is, but the fact is it sets the stage for expelling the families of these attackers, which most people believe will be a serious deterrent.

 

[podcast] Israel: Land of Judicial Tyranny

It has become clear in the last few years just how bad the judicial overreach here is in Israel.  Despite the rising sentiment to change the judicial system, the cadre of elitists still hold on to the last bastion of their control. Shai and I discuss, the history of judicial activism in Israel, why it is so bad, and the chances of change being implemented.

Sources used in this podcast:

  1. http://www.daat.ac.il/daat/ezrachut/english/hillel.htm
  2. http://www.robgagnon.net/JeffersonOnJudicialTyranny.htm
  3. http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Politics-And-Diplomacy/Shaked-mulls-splitting-attorney-general-job-into-two-411092