Tag: Syria

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WAR FRONT: Iran and North Korea are Building Ballistic Missiles in Syria…Now What?

There have been countless articles written about the intersection between the Iranian and North Korean nuclear programs, yet if the latest pictures taken by the Syrian opposition is an indication, the extent of the collaboration between the two countries along with the Russian acquiescence to the program should be alarming to everyone.

Published by a Syrian opposition site last week, the following images and information taken in Syria along with a detailed description by a worker at the site show collusion between the North Korean, Iranian, and Syrian governments in building an active ballistic missile factory.

MEMRI translated the July 10th article found on the site, which said the following:

Zamanalwsl.net stated that it had “received exclusive photos of the Assad regime’s scientific research center in the Wadi Jahannam region that is [administratively] in the rural area of Tartus. The new photos support this website’s previous report regarding the center where Bashar [Al-Assad] paid a secret visit that was disguised as a public and documented tour of a visit to several homes [of his supporters] in the rural region of Hama…  

“This is a facility for the development and manufacture of long-range missiles and M600 ballistic missiles – the [latter is] the secret name given by the science center [to these missiles, which are manufactured according to] the model of the Iranian Fateh 110 missile.

“The sources [cited in the report] indicated that the center has a branch in Deir Shamil [in western Hama province] where there is a base of the Fourth Division [of the Syrian army under the command of Maher Al-Assad, brother of Bashar]. [At this branch,] chemicals are produced and stored in the hillside adjacent to an underground road. According to the sources, Brig.-Gen. Ghassan Abbas is the director of the branch, under the direct command of Salim Ta’mah, deputy director of the Scientific Studies and Research Center (SSRC). The sources expect that the construction of [the branch of the SSRC] will be finished by year’s end.”

With the Trump administration allowing Russia to take key border areas near Jordan and Israel as part of last week’s ceasefire, the revelation of such a dangerous facility makes the Russia presence a clear danger to Israel.

Can Israel Take Out the Missile Factory?

When Israel took out the Syrian nuclear program that was built by North Korea, the region was very different. Russia had not presence outside of its Latkia base, the US was considered te strongman in the region, and Syria was essenitally a weak actor.

Today’s Syria is a non-existant entity, but Iranian and Russian forces exist througout the war torn country. Not to mention, the Russians have their S-400 anti-aircraft missile system installed in the region, essentially changing the dynamic the Israeli Airforce has to contend with.

This leaves the Trump administration to push back on Russia forcing them to remove the base.  This unlikely for two reasons.  The first is that Trump has been touting the “ceasefire” as a success. Second to that he has made it clear that Russia is a responsible actor and needs to be partnered with in order to bring stability to the region.

If Trump would bring Putin to task on this base, it would be an admittance that Trump’s entire Russia strategy is actually flawed.

North Korean-Iranian Collusion is the Real Story

It has become more and more obvious that the Mullahs in Tehran and North Korea have done more than help eachother out when necessary.  Their active partnership in building weapons of mass destruction is so tight that when talking about taking out one regime, it really means taking out two.  Furthermore, Syria needs to been seen in a far different light by the administration.  True, no one in America wants to see boots on the ground, but this base is a game changer.  Syria is now linked to North Korea, which has made it clear that it intends to nuke America.

The Trump administration, if it is serious about North Korea, must roll back the partnership between Iran, Syria, North Korea, and Russia. If it doesn’t, Israel must be empowered to do it for them.

 

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From Afrin to Sulaimani Kurdistan is Moving to Independence

If Turkey did not want an independent Kurdistan, especially one united with West Kurdistan located in Syria, then their actions against the Kurdish enclave in Afrin have had the opposite effect.  Consistent shelling of the YPG (Syrian Kurdish Militia) in Afrin has caused the Kurds of Sulaimani, which is located far to the East near the border of Iran and Iraq to rally to their brothers in Syria.

Last week Israel Rising reported that Turkey was preparing to invade Western Kurdistan, which is located in present day Northern Syria. By amassing Turkish troops in the Kilis triangle opposite Syria, Erdogan was hoping to scare the Kurds into backing down. The opposite has happened and it appears Turkey has now caused both areas to unite in their struggle.

A united Western and Southern Kurdistan which spans from Northern Iraq into Northern Syria is considered an existential threat to Turkey. There are twenty million Kurds living in South-Eastern Turkey, which is considered occupied Northern Kurdistan. An independent Kurdistan arising on the Turkish border would inherently inspire Northern Kurdistan to break away from their Turkish occupiers.

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Syrian Regime Continues to Violate Ceasefire, This Time in Quneitra Next to Israel

The Free Syrian Army based East of Israel’s Golan posted the following tweet:

Given the ecstatic jubilation over the “ceasefire deal” brokered between Trump and Putin on the sidelines of the G20 these sorts of violations that have been growing in the descalation zones have esentially deemed the ceasefire deal to be at the most a PR stunt if not rendered pointless.

With Al-Baath under attack by regime and Iranian forces, which is only 2 km away from Israel’s Golan the infractions are far more serious.

Is the Regime Goading Israel into Attacking?

One possible strategy is for the regime to blame Israel for breaking the ceasefire.  If the regime continues to advance in towards the Israeli border in the Golan, the Israelis would have no choice but to resume attacking regime military targets as they were doing last week.

Any counter-attack by Israel to sure up their FSA allies will run into the growing presence of Russian military police. The ceasefire has essentially be flipped to place US allies in the region on the defensive.  This will continue until the Trump administration is able extricate itself from the already collapsing ceasefire.

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BREAKING: Syrian Rebels Shoot Down Regime Plane Near Ceasefire Zone

Reports from rebel forces in Syria indicate they have shot down a regime fighter jet near the Sweida Ceasefire Zone.

“The plane was shot down and crashed in regime-controlled territory. We have no information on the pilot,” said Fares al-Munjed, communications head for the Ahmad al-Abdo Forces, a rebel group which operates in Syria’s southeast.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights confirmed the plane was shot down.

In further violations of the truce, regime forces have continued to shoot in Daraa.

Will the ceasefire hold? 

Although Russia seems intent on sending military police into the ceasefire areas, by the time they get situated the ceasefire may already be over. From the very beginning the regime and Iran were apprehensive about the ceasefire as the two have been on a roll. With the rebels fighting back, the ceasefire is essentially over.

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Syrian Ceasefire Crumbles on Second Day as Regime and Iranian Allies Attack Rebels

Reports are streaming in that Syrian regime forces and its Iranian allies have already started violating the truce brokered between Trump and Putin at the G20 summit last week.  This would mean the much vaunted truce lasted all of 24 hours.

and again:

The fighting continued near Daraa and the Sweida, two areas covered by the ceasefire.  Below is a map of showing areas of control as the the ceasefire went into place.

With the ceasefire beginning to unravel even before the first Russian troops show up to monitor it, the question is how long before the Trump administration and Moscow decide to try to reorganize for another try. The regime and Iran will not stop while the wind is at their backs. They were closing in on capturing Daraa before the agreement and if they do now they will split two of the rebel areas in half and stand on the border of Jordan just a few kilometers from the Southern Golan.

Did Putin Outmaneuver Trump?

Despite Trump’s glowing victory speech after the agreement he “brokered” at the G20, it appears to be Putin that played the President Trump.  Afterall, Putin knew full well that Syria and Iran would not rest until they at least took all of Daraa if not more.  He also knew that his airforce was no longer needed to achieve Daraa’s conquest.

The question remains, will Trump admit he was out played? Or will he continue to spread the false notion that there is actually a ceasefire, when in fact there was none.  The faster the Trump administration realizes that no deal can be made with the regime, Iran, or even their Russian backers, the faster he can stave off total defeat.

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Is the Syrian Regime Getting One Last Battle In Before Today’s Ceasfire Kicks In?

Arab news reports are filled with an ongoing battle in the Syrian Golan, close to the DMZ that separates Israel’s Golan, from the Syrian held Golan.  The Syrian regime and their Iranian allies are skeptical of the ceasefire deal Russia and the US have inked and have made it clear to teir Russian counterparts they have little intention of following it for long.

After all, the Syrian regime has been on a role and has drawn close to the Israeli border.  The Russian ceasefire essentially freezes Syria’s war on the FSA, but at the same time places Russian military police in charge of the area.

As the battle rages between the Syrian regime and rebel forces in the Quneitra region, Israel has taken no chances and has used drones and other surveliance tools to monitor the battle as the ceasefire comes in. Iran has made it clear they will use the ceasefire to regroup and build up their Syrian allies to be ready to take more rebel controlled territory near the Israeli border when the ceasefire collpases.

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SYRIAN CEASEFIRE: Russia Now in Charge of Israel’s Border

The G20 meeting between Putin and Trump has already produced some immediate results.  According to reports the two sides agreed to implement a ceasefire for Southwest Syria, along the Israeli and Jordanian borders.

“A ceasefire will come into force in that zone (Syria’s south – Daraa and Quneitra) at 12.00 Damascus time on July 9,” Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. “The United States has made a commitment that all the groups present there will observe the ceasefire.”

The security in the de-escalation zone in the south of Syria will be ensured by the Russian military police in coordination with the US and Jordan.

“At first, the security around this zone will be ensured with the use of the personnel and resources of the Russian military police,” Lavrov said.

The ceasefire has brought a tenuous relief to Israel as the Syrian regime forces and their Iranian allies were marching straight for the Golan. Reports indicate that Iran was brought to in on the deal by Russia who has grown wary of the Iranian army’s involvement in the conflict.

The deal covers the Daraa, Quneitra, and Sweida areas of Syria.

Is the Ceasefire Really Good for Israel?

Although there is a feeling of relief in Israel due to the ceasefire, the agreement itself is still not without flaws. Israel has demanded that Russia not be alowed to control the ceasefire zones without US involvement.  More than that the ceasefire does not prevent movements by the Syrian regime or its allies to other parts of the country. This essentially means that the Syrian regime can prepare for the next round.

This puts Daraa and Quneitra under a immediate threat once the ceasfire breaks down as it most probably will.

So why did Trump sign such a precarious deal?  Trump was left with little choice. By not committing to ground troops himself, Trump had to put a stop to Syria/Iran’s move to the Meditereanean or risk a broader war with Israel getting involved. Trump found a willing partner in Russia’s Putin to make it happen.

Now that the deal appears to be going into effect on Sunday, the Trump administration has essentially given Putin what he wants. Israel will have a far more precarious future with Russia in the mix on its border.

The deal essentially puts Russia on the border with Israel. This will make it harder and harder for the Israeli military to strike back if it is hit by Syria or Hezbollah. Israeli sources say that Israel’s government is in intense discussions on the specifics of Russia’s role within the ceasefre zones.

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Syrian Troops with Hezbollah Clear Out Al-Baath, Is the Next Stop Israel?

Syria and Hezbollah are reporting that they have successfully cleaned Al-Baath city from rebel and Jihadi forces.  Al-Baath has been the target of intense fighting between rebel and regime forces for over a week. The city is strategic for its location closer to the Damascus-Daraa road which has been the main supply line for the regime forces fighting against Free Syrian Army associated militias in Daraa.

Al-Baath itself, is the headquarters for the Iranian and Hezbollah contingents in Western Syria.  The city’s fall gives the regime and its Iranian ally direct access to the Quneitra province.  It also forces the Israeli government into a bit of a quandary. Up until the Israeli army has opted for using retaliation strikes against the regime as a way of tacitly aiding the rebels as well as offering humanitarian aid.  It has worked until now.  With Syria and Iran now able to move within the Israeli buffer zone around the Golan, Prime Minister Netanyahu will be forced to decide whether to enter the Syrian Civil War directly or allow the Shiite juggernaut to take up positions on the Israeli border.

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SYRIA CRISIS: Fighting Intensifies Near the Israeli Golan as Second Mortar Hits Israel

With all the talk and excitement of the arrival of the USS H.W. Bush Aircraft carrier at the port in Haifa, an ominous battle keeps moving closer to Israel’s Eastern border.

For the second time in one hour mortars from a battle between Syrian regime forces and rebel militia has hit the Israeli Golan.  On Friday the IDF retaliated again for a stray mortar. With two mortars hitting Israel, the IDF will have no choice but to hit back.

Due to the rebel (FSA and Jihadi Forces) continued assault of Al-Baath, the location of the forward Iranian base in South-West Syria, the IDF will again use the opportunity to attack Assad’s forces.

The initial assault began just over a week ago, but has stalled in its goal of taking Al-Baath and splitting the regime’s control over the Damascs-Daraa highway. The Syrian regime forces and their Iranian allies have brough the battle close to the Israeli border, in fact 3 kilometers away.

According to the Syrian regime there are still Israeli drones flying over al-Baath and seemingly posted there for a follow up attack.

Given the fact that Prime Minister Netanyahu has insisted that Israel won’t allow Syrian and Iranian troops to take up positions on the Golan border, Israel may have not choice but to step up attacks with or without continued provocation.

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ROCKET ATTACK: Calm With Syria Lasts Less than a Day

At ten last night a rocmet from Syria hit Israeli territory in the Golan. The IDF reported no injuries. The attack wrecked the short calm in attacks from Syria.

The question in military circles is whether the IDF will use this spillover to attack Syrian regime forces like before. The Israeli backed Syrian militias known as the FSA is in the middle of a huge operation to free the Damascus-Daraa road from regime and Iranian forces.

Israel has been lightly aiding the FSA with attacks when hit first by stray rockets.