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Iran WatchIsraelMiddle EastRegional AnalysisUAE

Qatar-Saudi Deal A Pushback Against Iranian-Chinese Dominance

by David Mark
written by David Mark

The recently concluded Qatar-Saudi deal to end the blockade on Qatar has once again changed the equation and calibration of peace in the Middle East. There are those naysayers who believe the deal was concluded in time for a potential Biden administration, but that is improbable.

Remember the embargo on Qatar was led by Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf States precisely because of Qatar’s connections to Iran and its funding of the Muslim Brotherhood.

A Biden administration that is ready to cozy up to the Mullah’s in Iran would elicit a continuing of the present Saudi led embargo.

Most likely, Qatar has realized which way the wind is blowing in the Middle East when it comes to their Sunni friends. Qatar’s strength has always come from its ability to play all sides – the embargo proved to its leadership in Doha that this strategy is no longer an option.

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Qatar Wants In On A Potential UAE-Israel Pipeline

With a reported pipeline between the UAE and Israel in the works, Qatar’s reliance and drive to build one with Turkey has now become obsolete. The main reason for its support for Turkey’s pro ISIS policies during Obama’s tenure was due to the building of this joint Turkey-Qatar pipeline.

Without the ability to build a secure pipeline and the UAE-Israel potentially being far more lucrative, Qatar has less reasons to hold back from returning to the Sunni block.

True, Biden’s team views things differently and this is the reason for Qatar’s decision to pick sides now. With the White House’s foreign policy potentially being run through Beijing, Qatar’s historic “neutrality” in the region is not longer relevant after Jan. 20th.

A Different Middle East – New Opportunities

President Trump’s team has left the region in a very different situation. The Muslim Brotherhood is fast being pushed out after the signing of the Abraham Accords and with it Qatar’s reason and ability to push against its Sunni neighbors and more importantly Israel.

Qatar’s choice to rejoin the Saudi led block also means that it accepts the centrality and necessity of Israel’s role within that block. Biden can certainly try to partner with Iran. However, the block’s strength is its ability to utilize Israel’s innovation economy, military prowess, and geopolitical connections around the world to sidestep a hapless Biden administration and a rising China without losing ground to Iran.

Qatar’s growing communication with Israel concerning Gaza has also made it less obstinate in dealing with the Jewish state on other issues. It also has a working relationship with Jerusalem and will now benefit from the Abraham Accords in an indirect way.

The Qatar-Saudi deal may appear to have come out of nowhere, but it needed to be done before Biden takes over in order to ensure that Iranian influence does not pollute the negotiations. Qatar wants to keep its revenues rising and influence steady and sees the Sunni block as the key to doing it.

This agreement will make it harder for Biden and company to push for rejoining the already broken Iran nuclear deal. More than that, it is a message for China who recently upgraded their military pact with Iran, that the Abraham Accords and the Sunni block will not be broken up.

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North AfricaPeacePoliticsUnited States

Trump The Peace Maker: Morocco Signs Full Normalization Deal With Israel

by David Mark
written by David Mark

President Trump announced today that his administration achieved another historic peace deal between a Muslim majority country and Israel. The Kingdom of Morocco and Israel agreed to full normalization. In exchange the US agreed to Morocco’s claims over the Western Sahara, nearly doubling the Kingdom’s territory.

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Here are Trump’s tweets about the deal:

This is why the left and the Deep State hate President Trump. The left has utopian dreams about the world and yet it is their arch-enemy, the “Orange Man” who gets the job done. The Deep State thrives from conflicts raging around the world. After all, the more conflict, the more chaos, and that means more reason that outside forces, including weapons and of course mediation is needed. Peace means that the Deep State cannot keep control – they are not relevant anymore.

The fact is, President Trump actually showing that peace, when viewed in a practical manner, was always achievable. The problem was there was simply never the real determination to just get it done.

What we learn from all of these deals, is that peace does not need to be complicated. In fact, the more simple it is, the more of a chance it will work out.

Think about it. Morocco just wanted recognition over a chunk of territory and with that they agreed to peace with Israel. At the end of the day, Israel was not the central reason a peace deal has never been achieved, but rather just part of the transactional exchange Morocco needed in order to apply sovereignty over a large piece of land it has claimed for decades.

This is how it has been with the Abraham Accords. President Trump got the parties to agree that peace is simply smart business. In today’s world, where leftists and liberals pretend to live a sort of faux righteousness, disregarding the harsh reality of the world, sometimes it takes commonsense and a bit of deal making to get a realistic peace deal done.

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China RisingCold War 2.0Regional Analysis

China Will Be Determining US Middle East Policy Under Biden

by David Mark
written by David Mark
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With the establishment of the Abraham Accords, President Trump has made the impossible happen in the Middle East. The accords brought a series of peace and normalization agreements between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, and even Sudan; along with increased interaction and dialogue with Saudi Arabia.

The question arises, given the potential for an incoming Biden administration – will they continue to support the Abraham Accords?

Publicly, Biden has expressed support for the Abraham Accords in a prepared statement:

“I welcome the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain taking steps to normalize ties with Israel. It is good to see others in the Middle East recognizing Israel and even welcoming it as a partner.”

“A Biden-Harris Administration will build on these steps, challenge other nations to keep pace, and work to leverage these growing ties into progress toward a two-state solution and a more stable, peaceful region.”

At first glance, this is promising, yet as we know “personnel is policy,” so it is important to dig deeper and understand that while publicly Biden will continue to express support for the Abraham Accords, it is the people that are running the actual foreign policy that will drive the actual direction and relationship to the Middle East.

The Biden team is made up of people bent on returning American foreign policy back to the Obama era.

Biden’s pick for Secretary of State, Antony Blinken said that he would “seek to build on the nuclear deal and to make it longer and stronger if Iran returns to strict compliance.”

Jake Sullivan, Biden’s incoming National Security Advisor was also a key architect of the Iran Nuclear Deal, known as the JCPOA. More than that though, Sullivan is known as backer of rapprochement with China and is seen favorably by the Chinese Communist Leadership.

It was Sullivan who said the following on China:

“We need to strike a middle course – one that encourages China’s rise in a manner consistent with an open, fair, rules-based, regional order,” Sullivan said. “This will require care and prudence and strategic foresight, and maybe even more basically it will require sustained attention. It may not have escaped your notice that these are not in ample supply in Washington right now.”

Sullivan has actually blasted the Trump administration over moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem and pulling out of the JCPOA in an interview on CGTN, a Chinese Communist controlled media outlet in December 2017.

“This was a political decision, not a foreign policy decision. This was about Trump and his supporters. It was not about moving the peace process forward. I think Donald Trump has been playing games with the Iran nuclear deal. He’s been raising questions about whether he’s going to stay in or leave. And in doing that, he has created a situation in which the rest of the world is more worried about the risk Washington poses than they are about the risk Tehran poses. And that is not in America’s strategic interest.”

Of course history has proven Sullivan wrong about Trump’s strategy on peace in the Middle East and the need to suck up to China.

Along with the above pro-Iranian-Chinese advisors, Biden has appointed far left and anti-Israel Karine Jean-Pierre as Deputy Communications Director and Linda Thomas-Greenfield a known globalist as UN Ambassador.

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China Will Be Behind Every Biden Decision On Iran And Israel

With Biden’s team clearly sinophilic and internationalist and given the Chinese Communist Party’s coopting of Joe Biden through his son Hunter, it is not far-fetched to see ahead and understand that any foreign policy decision Biden will make in the Middle East would be run through Beijing.

After all, corruption aside, the Biden team believes whole-heartedly in the need for Chinese dominance on the world-stage. Chinese preeminence has been a hallmark in globalist policy for at least two decades and it is certainly a foundational aspect of the incoming Biden administration.

More importantly, for Israel and its newly formed alliance with moderate Sunni Arab countries, Chinese dominance means that a Biden administration would return back to the failed policy of encouraging Iranian dominance in the Middle East.

I wrote the following last week on this issue:

“If Joe Biden holds off President Trump’s legal challenges he will essentially be a compliant partner in allowing the China-Iran Axis to hold sway over the Middle East. It cannot be overstated how much Biden and his team are influenced by the CCP controlled China.”

However, I believe that the issue runs deeper than the words I chose to use there. It seems that Biden’s entire foreign policy will be directly decided by those interests that align with the CCP in Beijing.

Look for a complete partnership in restoring Iranian hegemony over the Persian Gulf as well as a hyper development in China’s Belt and Road Initiative allowing Iran and Pakistan to give the CCP access (militarily) to the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf. China is also in dispute with Kenya, with the former looking to exploit its economic investment into Kenya’s port as a means to exert control, as it has done elsewhere.

On all of these and more, the Biden administration will not only stand passively by as CCP run China marches forward, but it appears ready to work with it as Obama did in allowing it to break down what is left of regional sovereignty for these countries.

There is no doubt that Biden’s team sees Israel and the other signees to the Abraham Accords as the “real bad actors” in the region. After all it is Israel and its allies who are actively blocking Iranian expansion in the region – something China wants desperately and which is something the Biden administration is willing to give them.

So while Biden may publicly claim he is pro-Israel or pro the Abraham Accords – his real policy is the opposite. Already, those related to the incoming Biden administration (assuming he is inaugurated) and the former Obama administration are insinuating that is actually Israel that is the terror state.

As has been noted by many the following tweet by John Brennan, Obama’s former CIA director inferring that Israel is the bad actor and terror state in relation to Iran is all anyone needs to know about what is coming.

Given all of the above, after Jan 20th 2021, assuming Biden holds off President Trump in the Electoral College and the President’s many legal challenges, Israel and the moderate Sunni countries will be in the Biden team’s crosshairs. Not because it makes sense or because Biden is really interested in making peace, but because Beijing says so.

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Regional Analysis

Thanks To Trump The Real Great Reset Is Already Here

by David Mark
written by David Mark

Regardless of one’s personal views of President Trump, it is undeniable that his push towards a serious Middle East realignment is not only bearing fruit, but is in a sense recalibrating most of the world’s relationship to the region.

True, many others have tried, but it is the Trump administration which seized on the changing currents in the region. Ironically, it was the Obama administration’s cozying up to Iran, which essentially pushed the Sunni Gulf States to move into an open alliance with Israel. This alliance, now dubbed the Abraham Accords, has been the single most revolutionary geopolitical change in the world since the end of the Cold War.

Why? Isn’t this just another Arab-Israeli peace treaty like Jordan or Egypt?

No. It is far more transformative.

The peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan were just that peace treaties. They ended the state of war between them and Israel. This is similar to the recent peace treaty with Sudan. While all these are important, it is not as seismic as the Abraham Accords with the UAE and Bahrain, which were never at war with Israel. The Abraham Accords is about normalization and cooperation – meaning real peace.

Already Israeli produce and products can be seen in the markets of these once unlikely allies and a stream of government officials from the UAE and Bahrain have visited Israel signing cooperative agreements.

The move to normalization and cooperation is the beginning of handing the region back to its indigenous populaces and ends decades of overt US interference. We see this in the direct actions the Trump administration is now taking to pull out US troops from Afganistan, Iraq, and Syria.

While there are skeptics, it has become apparent that the Abraham Accords furthered the dream of a “New Middle East” faster than haggling over the veracity of the “Palestinian” narrative. The Trump’s viewpoint is essentially to ignore obstinate actors and bring those to the table that are willing to work together to form a real alliance that can stand up against Iran and Turkey.

Peace is about power. For decades the Military Industrial Complex (MIC), Neocons, and the Deep State have used and instigated unending conflict in the Middle East to insert itself and insitute control that benefitted the elites in charge. President Trump has now ended that.

Without unending conflict and even presence, all the MIC can do is sell weapons to the sides, but when Israel can make an arsenal that is just as good as the USA, there is not much money to be made.

In one fell swoop, Trump’s Abraham Accords has left the never solved Israel-Palestinian conflict behind, solidified the anti-Iran alliance, checked Turkey, and created the atmosphere that has allowed Trump to end direct US occupation of Eastern Syria, Iraq, and Afganistan.

This is the real great reset and no, the elites and Deep State don’t like it one bit.

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