Although most observers think Trump’s drive for peace between Israel and the “Palestinians” is far fetched, there are indications that he may not be so crazy after all.
Iran looms over both Israel and the Gulf Sunni Arabs
With the Iranian army now on the door step of Northern Israel as well as taking over Southern Iraq and menacing the Gulf Arabs, the Sunni Arabs understand that Israel needs to eb openly included in dealing with this menace.
Sunni Oil Leverage is Over
With increased shale oil production and alternative energy sources overtaking foreign oil imports in the USA, American dependency on foreign oil is waning. This means that Arab oil holds less sway on geo-political issues. Given this the Arab countries are willing to cut a deal now before all of their influence if finished.
Israel Has Become a Tech Super Power
While the Arab states relied on oil to shape their economies, Israel invested in hi-tech and has now become a global center for technology and innovation exporter. This has allowed it to develop relationships with countries like China and India giving it more clout on the international arena.
Palestinians Have Become Annoying to Everyone
As the Arab leaders in the region realize that extremism has become a threat to their very existence, the Palestinians are increasingly seen as obstinate in their demands which are becoming stuck in the past. For the Saudis and the Gulf States, economy and security far outweigh the need to placate the Palestinian street.
Abbas Needs a Deal Before He Becomes Irrelevant
With each passing year Abbas and the Palestinian Authority become increasingly irrelevant. Their people are fed up and many are leaving. The PA is ripe with large scale graft and everyone knows it. Without a deal Abbas will be remembered as an old failure by everyone, most of all the residents of the Palestinian Authority.
With Trump flying Air Force 1 from Riyadh to Israel thus breaking down a major barrier between the two countries as well the President becoming the first sitting President to visit the Western Wall, there appears to be real movement. It can be assumed that Trump is ready to push for a regional framework instead of one that focuses only on the Israeli-Palestinian “conflict.” By placing the regional issues into a broader context, creative solutions to longstanding issues are expecting to be floated.
Trump may not succeed, but his attempt is not built on mere slogans, but rather a confluence of real world issues that are rapidly changing who is friend and who is foe.