Author: Micha Gefen

Micha is a government policy analyst for Israel Rising.
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Is Jordan In The Middle Of A Coup?

ArabNN is reporting that the rumors surrounding the disappearance of Jordan’s King are picking up steam as even Eddie Cohen of the Jerusalem Post appears to be confirming them.

Jordanian Opposition Leader Mudar Zahran has been agitating for full Palestinian rights in Jordan. 80 percent of Jordan’s populace are Palestinian Arabs and yet the King and his clan, along with the Muslim Brotherhood have essentially monopolized the country’s wealth and disenfranchised the majority of the populace. There has been growing discontent over the last year and calls for overthrowing the monarchy have grown.

“Jordan is facing unprecedented financial turmoil and COVID 19 death toll is rising at a staggering rate,” Jordanian Opposition Coalition (JOC) Leader Mudar Zahran said. “The ruling Hashemite family has systematically destroyed the country, and because no one has seen him in days, many are now asking: “Where’s Waldo?”

“Abdullah is clearly missing in action, and over 9 million Jordanians are searching for Waldo,” Zahran continued. “One thing is certain, he is running away from his duties, he brought this economic distress upon us, he lied to Jordanians juts three months ago telling them Jordan was almost COVID19 free, and now he left Jordanians to face their fate, while he is refusing to face the music.”

Intelligence website JAFAJ states the following:

“While the king’s whereabouts and conditions remain a mystery, Uncle Hassan has been frantically trying to fill the vacuum left by Abdullah’s absence, while drumming up political support.”

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How Does Jordanian Uncertainty Affect Israel

Israel has spent years propping up the Hashemite family in Jordan, to the point where despite King Abdullah’s partnership with Muslim Brotherhood terrorists, Israel still includes the monarchy in its security umbrella.

The thought has always been that despite the King’s two-faced policy, his “Kingdom” was necessary to provide a buffer to first protect against Iraq and then later Iran. Yet, with the recent deal between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain, as well as the growing possibility of Saudi Arabia, Jordan’s Monarchy has become a liability.

Is Saudi Arabia Helping To Depose the “Royal Family?”

There has been a long standing feud between the Hashemite and Saudi royal families dating back to when the Hashemites lived in what is now Saudi Arabia. The British placated the Hashemites by giving them what is today Jordan, leaving the Saudis in charge of the Arabian peninsula. Both dynasties have laid claim to being descended from Muhammed and both Kingdoms claim custodian over major shrines special to Islam. In Jordan’s case they control the management of the Temple Mount, which is within Israel’s security apparatus and sovereignty.

The last point is important and must be taken into account onto why Saudi Arabia sees the need to finally depose the Hashemites once and for all. The Hashemite claim to leadership of the Islamic world is essentially a farce. It resets on the fact that after 1967 the Israeli government was weak and allowed the Waqf to remain in charge. Thats it. Thats the whole claim King Abduallah and his family have.

The Saudis control Mecca and Medina, the two holist sites in Islam. They are a power player in the Middle East and see themselves as the rightful leaders of the Muslim world. Most of the world regards them that way as well.

So what is their interest in toppling the Jordanian Monarchy?

Simply put – peace.

With 80 percent of the Jordanian population made up of Palestinians and these Palestinians needing a State, the Saudis can ink a final deal between a Palestinian Jordan and Israel while signing a peace agreement themselves with the Jewish State. The Saudis would see their family replacing the Waqf as custodians of the Dome of the Rock and Al Aqsa and do away with a wannabe king who finds the Muslim Brotherhood in direct contravention of both American policy and Saudi interests.

So is Jordan’s King now on the way out? If he is, the Saudis are the most probable reason why – and that is a good thing for Israel and peace in the Middle East.

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Lead Iranian Nuclear Scientist Assassinated, But Did Israel Really Do It?

Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the Iranian scientist considered to be the mastermind behind Iran’s nuclear weapons program was gunned down Friday in Tehran.

Iran wasted no time blaming Israel: “Once again, the evil hands of global arrogance and the Zionist mercenaries were stained with the blood of an Iranian son,” Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said during a cabinet meeting early Saturday.

This was no doubt a major blow to Iran. This was on par with the Trump Administration’s targeted killing of arch Iranian terrorist Qasem Soleimani last year.

So while Israel is assuming there will be an Iranian response and rightfully raising alert levels at embassies around the world, the real question is – did Israel actually pull off such a high level assassination?

“I have no clue who did it. It’s not that my lips are sealed because I’m being responsible, I really have no clue,” Hanegbi, a confidant of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, told Meet the Press, Israel political TV show.

However, Prime Minister Netanyahu indicated the opposite on a video he posted on Facebook after the assassination: “I did a lot of things this week, not everything can be told.”

The truth is, while it is easy to believe that the Mossad has a team on the ground in Iran, it is also far more possible that Israel has made inroads into some of the non-Persian ethnic groups agitating against Iran and with their help have been able to penetrate deep within the Iranian security services in order to pull this attack off

Although the Mossad was directly involved in 2018, when it was able to break into Iran’s nuclear archives and remove 55,000 paper files and 183 CDs with another 55,000 files on them. No one doubts the Mossad’s prowess, but these sorts of attacks involving moving targets, explosives and gunmen are nearly impossible to pull off unless there was wide spread involvement by locals.

What Happens If They Never Left

When viewing the sorts of operations that the Mossad carries out, especially visa vi Iran, it must be assumed there is not one team who enters Iran, carries out the operation and then leaves. Rather, there is an obvious need for a team to remain there. Yet, Iranian intelligence is very good and so how is it possible this team has not been found yet?

Two possibilities come to mind.

Either the Mossad team is so good it just blends into the populace – disguised and all – or it is only one part of the team. The other part as mentioned above is made up of indigenous ethnic groups currently occupied by Iran.

Wikipedia

Above is a map detailing the various minority groups within Iran. It has long been known that the Kurds to the West and Baluchs to the South East are itching for independence. Any Mossad team could either come and go through KDP run Kurdistan into Western Iran or easily just blend into the local population there.

Furthermore, the Mossad may not be carrying out these sorts of assassinations, but rather work with disaffected groups by offering intelligence.

Iranian Kurds have been actively trying to separate since 1918. As recent as 2016 there have been armed clashes between Iranian Kurdish separatists and the Iranian Armed Forces. It would not be a stretch for any of these resistant groups to be fighting along side Western intelligence against Iran.

Either way, the actual success of the operation shows Iran’s intelligence services are lagging behind, not only because the Mossad has penetrated high enough up to be able to successfully carry out this operation, but because it has more than likely coopted locals to help it out.

Iran claims it will retaliate for the assassination of its top scientist, but it may not have much of a choice but to grit its teeth and focus on internal opposition instead.

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Jordanians Have Spoken – The Muslim Brotherhood Is Out, Is The King Next?

Israel has always put up with the King of Jordan’s addiction to the Muslim Brotherhood. After all, the King has served the Israeli government’s interest by providing a sort of known quantity on its Eastern border. True, he supports repressive laws in his country, a form of Apartheid against Palestinians living there and he cozies up to anti-semites around the Middle East.

Israel put up with the King’s hatred of the Jewish people and their right to Jerusalem and the Land of Israel, because until this summer Jordan and Egypt represented the only Arab states that were willing to make peace with the Jewish State.

With the UAE and Bahrain signing the Abraham Accord, Jordan’s King no longer has a use for Israel nor the Gulf States. In fact, his long standing pact with the Muslim Brotherhood may in fact be the very reason none of the Sunni Gulf States want to put up with him anymore.

This is why the recent elections in Jordan were such a blow to the King and his Islamicist partners.

Abed AlMaala, deputy secretary general of the Jordanian opposition said: “In Jordan, 3 things are clear. First, the King has placed himself above the Constitution, so he can do what he wants. Second, he appoints both the Prime Minister and all the members of the Upper House of Parliament. Finally, no one can run for office of any type without the king’s permission. Usually this means swearing allegiance and paying a hefty fee (bribe) to be on the ballot. Once on the ballot, it is almost assured that you will win, because it implies that the king has blessed your candidacy.”

For years now, there has been a growing grassroots movement opposing the Hashemite Royal Family. As the average Jordanian has seen a steep decline in his finances and quality of life, the animosity between the masses and the regime has grown.

In order to hold back the citizenry, the King has instituted repressive measures, but now they are in fact beginning to falter as well.

If the King cannot stablize his Kingdom, Israel may see its Eastern neighbor enter the type of chaos it was worried about to its North. Then again, with the UAE and Bahrain, it may be high time that the King is shown the door anyway. It is kind of hard to distract your citizens by blaming their lot on Israel when the UAE and Bahrain, both very successful see things quite differently.

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Why is Trump Pushing Peace when War Seems more Likely?

With Russia supporting  a Syrian-Hezbollah-Iranian attack on rebel positions in Daraa, putting them in striking position of northern Israel and Gaza continuing to heat up, literally, the USA has placed extra emphasis on its alliance with Israel.

Prime Minister Netanyahu said the following in yesterday’s cabinet meeting:

“Over the weekend I had two important meetings with Jared Kushner and Jason Greenblatt. We discussed the diplomatic process and regional issues, and there was special focus on the situation in Gaza. I must say that there was absolute support for our positions and our actions to ensure the security of the State of Israel and its citizens in the area adjacent to the Gaza Strip, which was expressed publicly by the American administration’s envoys. The issue also came up of how it might be possible to resolve the humanitarian problem in Gaza without strengthening Hamas. These matters are clear – first of all how to ensure security and how to prevent a broader flare-up, if it is at all possible. I expressed great appreciation for President Trump, Secretary of State Pompeo and of course for Ambassador Haley for the continual and strong support at the UN, which is very impressive.”

Given the tension rising in the region it is hard to understand why President Trump is still placing an emphasis on Middle East Peace.  The President met with Jordan’s King Hussein yesterday at the White House while Kushner and Greenblatt were speaking with Netanyahu just days earlier. With the proverbial noose tightening around both countries, why is the administration focusing on something that seems so far away?

Jordan is Cornered, Will they Fold?

The administration’s peace plan is done and like the Palestinian Authority has hinted, they are not included.  President Trump’s style is to apply maximum pressure to the side who is most obstinant.  In this case, it is Jordan, or let’s say Jordan’s King.

The Hashemite’s rule over its population, which is 80% Palestinian is tenuous.  In fact he relies almost entirely on US and Israeli security to keep safe. Now the Saudis and Gulf States have decided to prop up Jordan’s economy. With years of playing both sides, President Trump has decided to call the king of Jordan out.

With Iran, Hezbollah, and Syria closing in and the Palestinians in Jordan threatening a real revolt, Trump has the leverage he needs to force Jordan to accept the USA’s peace plan. Of course, that would mean an end to the Palestinian Authority with Jordan taking responsibility for those residents in 40% of Judea and Samaria that identify as Palestinian.

President Trump wants to use the external pressures of Iranian hegemony to force Jordan to accept it real role as “Palestine.”

2 Palestines and One Greater Israel

The plan that has seemingly been accepted within the Trump Administration is the breaking apart of the Oslo Peace narrative of the last 25 years. With Gaza, essentially independent, it has become a defacto Palestine. It has a government and is in charge of its own security and yes, very contiguous. Jordan will take over responsibility for areas A and B in Judea and Samaria and retain their custodial rights over Islamic religious sites in Jerusalem.  Israel will annex area C.

This is the plan that appears to be on the table and this is precisely why Jordan is so nervous about it. King Hussein has refrained from giving any credence that he already rules over Palestine.  Afterall, it is his rule which is artificial and if he agrees to Trump’s plan without any security and economic guarantees he will be risking his own neck with nothing in return.

President’s Trump’s emphasis on pushing a peace plan at this time is part of his larger strategy in using the rising tensions of war to force those leaders to come to the table.

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Hamas Fires 45 Rockets at Jewish Communities, IDF Responds Hitting Multiple Targets

After weeks of build up by Hamas in using “protestors” to breach Israel’s security fence,  some missile barrages, and flaming kites to terrorize Israeli citizens, the radical Islamic terror organization shot 45 rockets at Israel over night. Seven rockets were intercepted by the Iron Dome.  While there have not be serious physical injuries, many civilians are living in fear and inside bunkers.

Rockets were aimed at schools and other civilian locations.



The IDF responded, hitting multiple targets throughout the Gaza strip.

The real question is whether this is the beginning of something larger or a one-off volley meant to apply pressure on Israel.  Ultimately Hamas keep applying pressure, after all they promised to liberate “Palestine.” Any moment of laxity will enable those in the Palestinian populace that already question Hamas’ degenerative rule to gain a real foothold.

 

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After North Korea Comes Iran

Prime Minister Netanyahu said the following after President Trump’s historic summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

“I commend US President Donald Trump on the historic summit in Singapore. This is an important step in the effort to rid the Korean peninsula of nuclear weapons.

President Trump has also taken a strong stand against Iran’s efforts to arm itself with nuclear weapons and against its aggression in the Middle East. This is already affecting the Iranian economy. President Trump’s policy is an important development for Israel, the region and the entire world.”

The outcome of the summit in Singapore has already drawn a warning from Iran to North Korea.

“We don’t know what type of person the North Korean leader is negotiating with. It is not clear that he would not cancel the agreement before returning home,” Iranian government spokesman Mohammad Bagher Nobakht was quoted as saying by IRNA new agency.

Nobakht questioned Trump’s credibility. “This man does not represent the American people, and they will surely distance themselves from him at the next elections,” he said.



As it stands, Trump has returned home and the deal appears to still be standing.  In fact Trump has said he wants a new “real” deal with Iran.

“I hope that, at the appropriate time, after the sanctions kick in — and they are brutal what we’ve put on Iran — I hope that they’re going to come back and negotiate a real deal because I’d love to be able to do that but right now it’s too soon to do that,” Trump said.

The real game behind this summit was two-fold.  The first was to denuclearize the Korean peninsula, which both China and the USA have a serious interest to do and the second and perhaps real reason why Trump and his team took this unprecedented step to meet with the North Korean dictator was to disconnect it from Iran.  This isolates the Islamist regime in Tehran.

Trump does not believe he can get anything out of the Ayatollah’s who are driven by Shiite messianic ideology.  Kim Jong Un, while a brutal dictator does not appear to have an issue with Western cultural entertainment.  Can we say Dennis Rodman?

However, the Ayatollahs, firmly believe their purpose is to bring the Mahdi and destroy the world.  No amount of basketball and hotels will change this.  Meaning, there is no real ability to create a personal connection between them and the Trump team.

So what is next?

Trump will continue to isolate the regime in Tehran and make it clear he intends to back Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the other Gulf allies.  He will also attempt to turn Russia against Iran by guaranteeing Putin that he will keep control of Western Syria in return for Putin backing Iran’s abandonment of Syria and allotting the Syrian Kurds their own state or let’s call it proto-state.

Why would Putin go for this?

He historically does not like or trust Iran and it may well be that Trump will also relax US opposition to Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its growing control southeast Ukraine, otherwise known as the Donbass.

The USA will continue to isolate Iran militarily and economically. Will the regime in Tehran fold?  Probably not, but unlike North Korea, there is enough people in Iran that are educated and will eventually make it clear to their leaders that times up.

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Does Russia Really See Iran as an Ally in Syria?

Despite the constant drumbeat of pseudo-security blogs and magazines like SouthFront, ZeroHedge, and SputnikNews claiming that the Russian and Iranian partnership is something akin to a strategic alliance, that if one relies only on those sorts of sites for regional affairs they come off baffled by Putin’s agreeable attitude towards Israel’s security demands visa vi Iran.

Regardless of the desires of most of these pro-Iranian English media outlets there has never been reason to believe that Russia and especially Putin saw Iran as anything more than a tool to clean out the Western back jihadists who came onto the scene under Obama.  Putin approached Syria carefully without a strong desire to place meaningful troops on the ground.  Assad was close to being toppled so the only real foot soldiers available at the time were Hezbollah and Iran.

Now that Assad is comfortably in control of the southwestern part of Syria, minus Darra and the Golan area, Iranian troops as well as Hezbollah are far less useful to Putin whose only interest is holding onto Syria as a strategic location for his fleet in the Eastern Mediterranean.  More so, Putin has a strong distrust of Iranian goals in the region and ultimately sees Tehran as a competitor on the energy production scene.

Putin and the Russian military do not see Iran as a reliable strategic ally.  They do however, see Israel as a stabilizing force in the region and although at odds with its Western bent, Putin and his team trust Israeli intentions not to inflame the region.  More so, they believe Prime Minister Netanyahu’s intent to stop Iran at all costs, which would ultimately send the region into a period chaos.  This is something Russia cannot afford at this point.

It is also key to look at the historical relationship between Russia and Persia (Iran).  Between the 17th and 19th centuries they fought a total of five wars, which ultimately saw Russia overpower the Persian empire.

In short, Putin’s strategic goals line up far more with Israel’s security needs than they do with Iran’s hegemonic desires.  Couple this with a negative history between Iran and Russia and it is easy to see why Putin is ready to encourage the Ayatollahs to leave Syria.



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Hamas Breaks Ceasefire, Israel Responds Destroying Military Targets in Gaza

Hamas broke their own ceasefire last night by firing more than five rockets and mortars into Israel.  These landed in populated civilian areas sending residents fleeing into their bunkers.  The IDF attacked back immediately destroying multile military targets in Gaza.



Is War Coming to Israel’s South?

There is no doubt that Iran is pulling the strings of Hamas and Islamic Jihad in order to open up a third front against Israel.  The Gaza front has little to do with conquering territory.  Rather it is being activated with the sole purpose of draining Israel’s resources and attention away from the North, mainly from Iranian movements in and around the Golan. The war being waged against Israel, is designed to exact a psychological toll on Israel’s populace while buying time for Iran to find a hole in Israel’s defenses.

The first round of warfare clearly went to Israel, but unless Russia agrees to the total removal of Iran and Hezbollah from Syria and not just near the Golan, the noose will continue to tighten around the Jewish State.




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Israeli Deep State Admits they Don’t Respect Democracy

Tamir Pardo, the former Mossad head has now admitted that he and others were prepared to disobey orders given by Prime Minister Netanyahu to attack Iran several years ago. According to sources Netanyahu gave them 15 days to prepare.  Although the order was eventially nullified.  The reaction to many entrenched in Israel’s Deep State is telling.

In an interview set to air in Israel, Pardo admits that he and others questioned Netanyahu legal right to prepare the security arms to attack Iran.

“I made as many inquiries as I could,” he said. “I asked the previous Mossad chief…I asked legal experts. I asked everyone I could find to ask, in order to understand who has the authority to give orders on any issue which would start a war.”

“At the end of the day, if I receive an order, and if I receive an order from the Prime Minister, then I am supposed to carry it out. I need to be sure that if, G-d forbid, something goes wrong, or if the action fails, there won’t be a situation in which I did something illegal.”

In the interview Pardo claimed he was considering resigning.

“When the diplomats give an order, you have two options,” Pardo said. “One option is to carry it out, and another option is to hand in the keys. It’s good that I didn’t have to make that decision….though I did think of it.”

Reaction has been swift by the current government.

The current Deputy Defense Minister Eli Ben-Dahan said the following on Pardo’s revelation:

“What Tamir Pardo did was no less than an act of rebellion. In a democracy, those who the people elected are the ones who make the decisions. It is inconceivable that someone working in the public sector will refuse to listen to the government’s orders, when the government was chosen by Israeli citizens. His decision to discuss this topic when we are in the midst of an international battle against those funding Iranian terror harms the battle against Iran, solely for the sake of headlines.”



Deputy Minister Michael Oren also came out swinging at Pardo and Israel’s Deep State:

“The phenomenon of ‘securityists’ and ‘exes’ who come out against the government is only growing. It is important to remember that most of them do not see the overall picture and are not aware of all the factors that led to one decision or another. They are not skilled in decision-making on the international political-strategic level. Moreover, the prime minister has to rely on the people he appoints.”

Given the fact that Netanyahu himself is considered a security minded Prime Minister makes the decisions of Pardo and his colleagues very puzzling.  Israel’s Deep State has increasingly been cornered by Likud and Jewish Home leaders who have taken a proverbial broom to state institutions.

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BOMBS AWAY: Israel Strikes Back at Hamas Overnight

With the increased mortar and rocket attacks coming from the Gaza Strip into Israeli population centers, Israel attacked back over night hitting more than 25 target in the Gaza Strip.



Hamas now claims it is requesting a ceasefire, however rockets were still being fired this morning into Israel.  The IDF’s strategy is to pound hard early on in order to end the offensive before it devolves into something larger. With Hamas claiming there is a ceasefire, it looks like the strategy is working.

Why Did Hamas Attack?

The mortar fire yesterday which sparked this round of hostilities between Hamas and Israel came at then of multiple weeks of riots and attempted infiltrations from Gaza into Israel.  Hamas was willing to use crowds to undertake terror operations against Israel, which included burning kites, which flew into Israel causing massive damage to crops.  Although this sort of thing had been taking a toll, it was not proving the necessary success Gazans needed to keep the game going.  The mortar attacks were part of the show, but now seemed to have been a miscalculation on the part of Hamas.

With most politicians unifying for a serious assault on Hamas if they don’t stop attacking, the ball has been squarley placed back in their court.  Then again, the leaders of Hamas and Islamic Jihad have already vacated their above ground homes, running to safety in bunkers. They will have to decide whether its better to risk a real war, with no one in the White House to hold Israel back or calm the situation back down.  The choice is theirs.