The Russians Are Coming

Experts seem to agree that the world will look back at these years as something of a great transition. The question many people have is from what kind of vantage point will we be looked back upon.  The lightning fast pace of events in Syria and the rest of our region attest to a world that is rapidly transforming once again into a multi-polar one.

With Russia’s entrance into the Syrian war on September 30th of this year, the world closed the door on what had been known as the post cold war world. From 1991 until this year the USA ruled the Middle East by itself.  The Russians were nowhere to be found and now, in a flash they seem to be everywhere.

With the above in mind and Russia’s tactical partnership with Iran, it has been surprising to many observers that Israel and Russia are not only talking and implementing a deconfliction mechanism, but seem to be furthering their partnership in relation to Syria. After all, Iran has sworn itself to Israel’s destruction and is actively using the mayhem in Syria as well as Russian air coverage to move their forces closer to Israel’s border. So why such an open working relationship with Putin’s Russia?

 

Russian Detente With Iran is Just Tactical

Many analysts believe that Russia, in the long term, has no interest in allowing Iran to take over the Middle East.  Russia views its relationship with Iran as a tactical necessity to prop up Assad and destroy Sunni radicals. After this task is done, the experts in this particular camp believe their paths will diverge.  

If this is so, then logic lends itself to believe Putin wants relationships and long term strategic partnerships with countries that are not only stable, but also share similar security and economic outlooks with himself, and yet will not step in his way. Israel is one of these countries.

 

“Israel is a Special State to Us”

In fact Putin has stated in the past his reverence for the Jewish State and his belief that it is a natural ally of his, as he considers it a special state. This is due to the 1.5 million Russians that live in Israel.  

A deeper analysis of early Zionism shows that despite the fact that Herzl is very much seen as the father of modern Zionism, the successors and thought leaders that drove the movement were really from Eastern Europe and Russia.  Their focus was on creating a Jewish National Movement within the confines of Europe and Russia, with a link to the Land of Israel. The movement, however, would push Jewish national rights within the Russian Empire. This, of course, didn’t get far as the ascendency of the Soviet Union forced these leaders to push for increased immigration to Israel.  Still, the Russian linkage to Zionism shouldn’t be forgotten, but rather be seen as a context to understanding why the current detente has more backing than an immediate need for deconfliction.

Then again, the same can be said between the millions of Christian Zionists in the West and today’s state whose rising leadership share an affinity with biblical values.

 

Economic Ties Between Russia Are Strong

Another fact is that Israel has a trade surplus with Russia as opposed to a deficit with the USA. In the new world of a rising East, this is meaningful to Israel’s position and future growth.  It is no secret Israel is looking East for new partners in China and India.  Russia’s trade with Israel is already very strong and will continue to grow.

 

Strategic Versus Tactical

As mentioned above, the maneuvers Russia is making in Syria and the broader region seem to stand in the way of Israel’s growing strength and influence.  

Yet, if one places Syria and Iran in only a short term tactical light, a strategic partnership between Israel and Russia makes full sense when connected to another burgeoning relationship; Kurdistan and Russia. Turkey’s aggression against the Kurds and funding of ISIS makes Russia, Israel, and Kurdistan natural allies against Radical Islam and an ascendant Turkey. The question remains though how much Putin and Israel can see eye to eye on the need for tamping down Putin’s tactical allies Iran and Hezbollah.

 

Conclusion

Despite some of my above assertions, we live in a world that seems to have become unhinged. We can never know which way alliances, partnerships, and working relationships will go.  

We are in a great transition period and Israel seems to be carefully moving through it.  Russia’s calculation may be different in a few days and their tactical need for Iran may outweigh the long term strategic value of partnering with Israel.  After all, Putin is a master chess player, even more than Bibi.

With that in mind, a regionally strong and globally ascendant Israel should not run to embrace a looming Russian Bear just yet. Especially a Russia that is purely pragmatic and whose leaders do not share the biblical values that have made Israel function beyond the realm of pragmatism. These values in many ways have made the dream of an Israel that went from persecuted to global leader a reality far more than the tactical pragmatism of Putin. We have to remember that as much as we want to be accepted by a strong Russia, Putin himself lives in a world of tactics and tactics can change if Mother Russia needs them to. In other words an alliance with Russia will only happen if it is good for Russia and its length will only last if it is good for Russia.

With this in mind it could very well be that the best course of action is to approach our new topsy turvy world with one giant deconfliction mechanism. Let the chips fall where they may, the roller coaster ride has only just begun.

Palestinian Terrorism – An Extension of ISIS & Global Jihad

Make no mistake about it: The increasing terror wave in Israel by Palestinians has nothing to do with Israel occupying territories and nothing to do with Jews on the Temple Mount. The current terror wave has everything to do with annihilating Jews and Israel.

Summary:

  • The last year saw the largest rise of Islamic terrorism around the world. In Israel, the terror wave is increasing too.
  • Several recent public opinion polls show an overwhelming majority of Palestinian Arabs support an intifada (terror wave) with the end goal of “liberating Palestine” and completely destroying Israel.
  • Most Palestinians do not support a 2-state solution, but would rather have Israel destroyed and replaced with a Palestinian state.
  • The daily incitement by the Palestinian Authority and Hamas, along with the indoctrination to Jihad that many Palestinian children get in their schools, is brewing a society of hate and murder against Jews.
  • Palestinian allegiance to ISIS is on the rise (24% support ISIS), which explains the growing number of Palestinian terror attacks in correlation with the growing worldwide conflict with ISIS.
  • Contrary to what many believe, ISIS is not a direct threat to Israel.
  • Israel needs to do more to protect its people.

Rise in Terrorism Worldwide & in Israel

According to the Global Terrorism Index Report of 2015, terrorism continues to rise. Deaths in 2014 reached 32,685 constituting an 80% increase from 18,111 the previous year. The numbers for 2015 are expected to be even higher. Israel is ranked as the 24th most impacted country by terrorism while some of her neighboring countries accounted for 78% of all worldwide terrorism-linked deaths. According to the GTI report, most terror attacks targeted private civilians.

Interestingly, but not unexpectedly, in the last 2 months to date, Israeli citizens suffered through 30 shootings, 12 car rammings, 82 stabbing attacks, 1,617 stone throwings and 651 molotov cocktails resulting in the deaths of 22 civilians and seriously wounding 251. That’s a total of almost 2,400 atacks in 2 months; an average of 40 attacks per day! You won’t hear about most attacks in the mainstream media though.

According to statistics published by the Israel Security Agency at the end of 2013, since the start of the second Intifada, 1,227 people have been killed by Palestinian terrorism and 8,549 were wounded. (These numbers do not include the deaths and injuries of Israeli soldiers during combat in Gaza.)

Are we to single out Israel’s terrorism problem as being a result of land occupation and Jews praying on the Temple Mount, while neighboring countries are suffering a similar fate due to religious fanaticism?

The Real Goal of the Palestinian Intifada

Let’s take a closer look as to why the Palestinians are committing terror attacks.

According to public opinion polls conducted by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali and the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, an overwhelming majority of Palestinians are in favor of an increase in terror attacks against Israeli civilians with the end goal of completely destroying Israel and replacing it with a Palestinian state. Only 11% of respondents said the goal of the “intifada” should be to “liberate” only those territories captured by Israel in 1967.

[The Pew Research Institute’s recent poll resulted in different numbers than the polls mentioned above, but still shows that 21% of West Bank arabs are not against ISIS.]

These poll results explain why terror attacks have been taking place in areas not considered “occupied territories” and against people not considered “settlers” or “occupiers.” Palestinian terrorists see all Israelis as occupiers and enemies that must be removed.

Daily incitement by Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas, along with Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and other Palestinian groups, is responsible for the constant brainwashing of Palestinians into believing that Israel is killing Palestinians mercilessly and is planning to destroy the Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem. Abbas goes as far as to glorify terrorists, terror and martyrdom.

Even the education system in many Palestinian schools teaches and indoctrinates children to a life of terrorism, Jihad, martyrdom, and suicide attacks. How do children become terrorists? This video is one answer to that question:

 

The Rising Influence of ISIS in Israel

According to a poll conducted in 7 arab countries by the Arab Center for Research & Policy Studies, Palestinians had the highest percentage of support for ISIS than any other group in the Middle East. 24% of Palestinian Arabs support ISIS  and more than 40% object to any military action against the Islamic State.

Respondents' answers to the question "In general, do you have a positive or negative view of ISIL?"
Respondents’ answers to the question “In general, do you have a positive or negative view of ISIL?” (Credit: Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies)

ISIS has also been trying to “hijack” Palestinian Jihad as its own. With the clear connection between Palestinian terrorists, the Jihad mentality of martyrdom and ISIS, it is obvious that the real goal of the terror wave in Israel is the baseless destruction of the Jewish people and Israel, similar to the Islamic State’s goal of destroying infidels.

Nevertheless, Israel should not fear ISIS. As Efraim Inbar explains in his analysis of How Dangerous is ISIS to Israel?:
Suggestions that ISIS may constitute a bigger threat to Israel than Iran are ridiculous. The Israeli army and the ISIS militia are in different leagues. As long as ISIS behaves in a most unconventional bestial way, many in the world will be happy to see Israel doing the dirty work on their behalf, dealing ISIS blow after blow, if the opportunity and necessity arises.

This is true in part because the ISIS military is relatively small and weak. It’s offensives were successful largely against weakened militaries and in places with political void. While ISIS is not a direct threat to Israel, it has been successful in generating support via social media and online recruitment channels.

Infographic: ISIS Is Expanding Its Reach On Twitter | Statista
Source: Statista.com

Israel, Protect Your People

While we see no signs of the terror wave subsiding in Israel, the government needs to do more to protect its citizens. For starters, it should do more to catch and block propaganda material from reaching Palestinians in its midst. Easier said than done, I know. But we do see some strides being made when Israel recently closed radio stations involved in incitement and banned the inciteful Islamic Movement group.

However, let’s first take a quick glance at the recent terror attack trends in Israel and what can be done to prevent them. According to the findings of The Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center:

  • Most of those who carry out the attacks inside Israel are between the ages of 16 and 20, while most of those who carry them out in Judea and Samaria are between the ages of 22 and 26.
  • Usually, national and religious motivations influence the attacker. His decision is influenced by frustration, the desire for fame and the glory achieved by becoming a shaheed, the desire to avenge the deaths of friends or relatives, and exposure to the intense incitement in the media and on the Palestinian street.
  • Most of the attacks targeted the Israeli security forces (which shows the suicidal nature of the attacks), the rest targeted civilians.
  • Have national-religious motivations and for years have had popular violence and terrorism as constant companions. They have been influenced by systematic, intensive anti-Israeli incitement and hate propaganda.
  • Only a few of the terrorists were operatives of any specific organization.

How do we fight such an ideological form of terrorism? It can take years to uproot an ideology from the hearts of its supporters. What immediate response can there be to prevent any further attacks against Israeli citizens?

Looking at the findings above, it is clear that Israel needs to make it undesirable to commit terror attacks. Currently, jail time for terrorists and home demolitions do not seem to suffice as a deterrent to attack. If Israel would institute a law to deport immediate family members, a terrorist may think twice before committing an attack. If he or she knew that their parents, siblings, spouse and children would not be able to live in their homes and would lose their current form of income, then the spectacular vision of martyrdom may become a bit more dull.

While a  majority of Palestinians routinely celebrate terror and death (as seen in the current terror wave in Israel, the recent Paris attacks, and as far back as the September 11, 2001 attacks in New York), seldom will you find any Israeli or Jew in the world celebrate the death of anyone, even an enemy.

In the meantime, with the holiday of Chanukah fast approaching, I pray that light will triumph over darkness, good over evil, and that only goodness will spread throughout the world for all peoples.

Recommended Articles:

[podcast] Israel: Land of Judicial Tyranny

It has become clear in the last few years just how bad the judicial overreach here is in Israel.  Despite the rising sentiment to change the judicial system, the cadre of elitists still hold on to the last bastion of their control. Shai and I discuss, the history of judicial activism in Israel, why it is so bad, and the chances of change being implemented.

Sources used in this podcast:

  1. http://www.daat.ac.il/daat/ezrachut/english/hillel.htm
  2. http://www.robgagnon.net/JeffersonOnJudicialTyranny.htm
  3. http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Politics-And-Diplomacy/Shaked-mulls-splitting-attorney-general-job-into-two-411092

The Israel Kurdistan Connection

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When Bibi Netanyahu stated in June of 2014 that the Kurds “are a fighting people that has proved its political commitment, political moderation, and deserves political independence,” it surprised very few observers.  Israeli Kurdish relations have been the quiet success story of the ever growing chaotic and war-torn middle east.  The Kurds have enjoyed defacto sovereignty over Northern Iraq ever since the days of George W. Bush’s misguided adventures in state building, but nevertheless, one of the brightest points that came out of that foray is the burgeoning autonomous region of Kurdistan. Of course this is to the chagrin of Turkey and Syria (whatever is left of it), but nevertheless the Kurds are prospering despite the challenges of being a non-state actor pressed by all sides (Turkey in the North, ISIS to the South and West, and Iran to the East).

For Israel’s part, it has become clear that a stable Middle East, if there is a chance for one, revolves around the Kurds finding their long elusive independence.  Besides a civic society, independence requires economic and military capabilities to ensure survival.  This is where Israel has provided covert but necessary help.

Oil Revenues Driving Kurdish Economy

It is no secret that Northern Iraq is flush with crude oil.  This would make the autonomous Kurdish region a potentially wealthy area.  The challenge for the Kurds has been to get their oil out to the market outside of the framework of the Iraqi federal government.  An agreement was reached between the KRG (Kurdish Regional Government) and the Iraqi Federal government in December of last year, which would have seen 17% of the national oil revenues go to the KRG in return for a ban on selling their oil outside the national framework. The agreement fell through shortly after that and the Kurdish Regional Government once again began to sell their oil on the black market.

The flow of Kurdish oil to the world takes an interesting direction and with it some unusual partners. The Times of Israel quotes a report in FT this past August that Israel uses a Maltese shipping company to transfer Kurdish oil from the Turkish port of Ceyhan.  The total amount purchased was 19 million barrels of Kurdish oil, worth roughly $1 billion, between May and August of this year. This would support 77% of Israel’s total energy needs. Of course the oil seems to go from Israel to markets around the World.

Given the fact that the Turks and Kurds are mortal enemies this appears to be strange.  The Kurds deny this, but the evidence from the shipping routes is clear.  Israel has become the middleman for Kurdish oil.  Of course one reason that the Turks might be looking the other way is that their newly uncovered ISIS allies are also using the avenue to get their oil out to market. Despite fierce battles between the Kurdish Peshmerga and ISIS, when it comes to oil and money, the guns are put away.

The Kurds, with Israeli help, have built a thriving oil economy.

Peshmerga is an IDF Trained Army

It is known that in the 1960’s and 1970’s the IDF worked covertly to train the Kurdish Peshmerga to fight the Iraqi government. As recently as 2010, it seems that the Israeli government had sent officials to the KRG to help train their fighters. Since 2003 the Israeli government has been exporting weapons and other military supplies to the Kurdish region and, although no official recognition of this relationship exists, it is a known fact to both governments as well the Europeans and the USA.

Why Kurdistan?

The Israeli Kurdish relationship is complex and yet should be seen in a broader regional context.  Outside the Arabs, four other immediate indigenous players exist in the Middle East: Israelis (Jews), Arameans (Marionite Christians), Druze, and the Kurds.  Before the Arab expansionism after the Mohammed’s death, these four groups made up the indigenous groups outside the Arabian peninsula (Jews actually had independent kingdoms in Yemen and Arabia).

Traditionally for Israel, there is a natural affinity, almost brotherly between these four groups. Israel’s increased strength means that there is a potential to reset the balance to what it was before the Islamic push occurred. An independent Kurdistan would go a long way to not only restoring a sense of justice to the region, but it would bring a much needed stable player in a chaotic area of the world.

Russia on the Move

Ever since Turkey shot down the Russian SU-24 fighter jet last week, Russia has increased its push into controlling Syria. It has become apparent to most analysts that the Russians have laid off the Syrian Kurdish army and have focused on decimating the rebel allies of the Turkish government.  It is not a huge stretch to figure out who Putin would most likely want to befriend next.  Let me just say Turkey will not be so amused.

“This is Really About Justice” An Interview with Natan Epstein

I had the pleasure and privilege to interview Natan Epstein, founder of Uncensored. Natan is one of the most dedicated guys I know and it is not a surprise that his Facebook page and Telegram channel are taking off and changing the way people viewing Israel. We have a serious challenge here in Israel getting the news out to the most of the populace let alone the world. Natan brings the news into your lap and is able to shift perceptions that would have otherwise remained frozen.

[soundcloud url=”https://api.soundcloud.com/tracks/234263042″ params=”auto_play=true&hide_related=false&show_comments=true&show_user=true&show_reposts=false&visual=true” width=”100%” height=”450″ iframe=”true” /]

The Army of Jihad Has Arrived

Since the attacks in Paris, much of the Western World has begun to realize that a great war has been underway and they were sleeping through it. This war between the Liberal West and Radical Islam is like no other war the World has experienced. It is not fought on traditional battlefields between armies, but rather the Army of Jihad fights everywhere. When in areas that are majority Muslim they fight with soldiers, but outside of their direct sphere of influence the Army of Jihad fights through the guise of Radical Islam. In places like Paris, where a burgeoning Muslim population exists, terror is the main weapon of choice. In these scenarios everyone is a combatant. For the Army of Jihad the woman and child of the infidel is an enemy combatant and in return their own soldiers are made up of women, children, and the old.

The West cannot understand why it is they are losing this war. They classify the heinous acts in Paris as “Terror,” which they are, but the leaders of the West fail to go deeper. Terror is really just a weapon that one army chooses to harness in a war. At the end of the day the Army of Jihad (whether that is ISIS, Hezbollah, Hamas, Al Qeida, etc.) employs any weapon that works to defeat the enemy. The West still believes this war is about uplifting the masses of Muslims from abject poverty and then they will pacify. Well that has not happened.

To understand what the Army of Jihad wants we must understand the concepts within Islam of Dar al-Islam and Dar al-Harb (Abode of Islam and Abode of War). Dar al-Islam refers to areas of the world under the rule of Islam , literally, “the home of Islam” or “the home of submission.” Many Muslims also attach past conquests to this abode as well. That would include Spain and much of Hungary and Southeast Europe. These areas must be reconquered.

Dar al-Harb refers to the Abode of War. The inhabitants of the Dar al-Harb are called harbi as opposed to dhimmi or kufr (non-believers, pagans). These areas must be cleansed by war and reassigned under Dar al-Islam. Pay attention, Christians and Jews can live if they accept second-class citizenship. This does not refer to the West where Islam is not in control. The West, Far East, and Africa are all under Dar al-Harb because Muslims are not in control of these places.

According to Prof. Muhammad Ishaq Zahid, “Dar al-Harb (Domain of War) refers to the territory under the hegemony of unbelievers, which is on terms of active or potential belligerency with the Domain of Islam, and presumably hostile to the Muslims living in its domain.”

The above is key to understanding why the Army of Jihad, through its ideology of Radical Islam, wages war on all levels with the West in particular and the rest of the World in general.

The Army of Jihad sees the West as broken down into Dar al-Harb (after all these countries are potentially belligerent towards the lands of Dar al-Islam and where non-Muslims are in control of Muslims) and Dar al-Islam including areas under former Islamic rule like Spain, Israel, Nigeria, Hungary, the Balkans, and Bulgaria.

So why terror? Why is that a weapon so often used by the Army of Jihad? Simply put, all means must be put in the Army’s disposal to win. By enabling the attackers to see all non-combatants as really combatants there are no limits to who can be killed. Of course since Radical Islam as an ideology espouses a war where everyone of the enemy’s citizens are culpable because they strengthen the hold over Dar al-Harb and parts of Dar al-Islam they are no longer non-combatants.

Two terror attacks occurred on Friday, one in Paris and the other in Hebron Hills near Otniel. The press focused on Paris, but has failed to understand that its root really begins here in Israel. It is noted that a Red Crescent Ambulance failed to administer first aid to the victims of the terror attack in Israel. Why? Well after all these “settlers” are no longer deemed non-combatants, but rather part of the army of the “Occupation.” Men, women, and children are fair game in that case and so naturally why treat an enemy combatant in the middle of war. Furthermore, the medical crew inside the ambulance saw itself as a combatant (and after its actions it is) and by nature lent itself to helping the cause against the “Occupation.” Let me be clear here, the occupation has nothing to with Israel and politics, but rather occupation of Dar al-Islam. In that war, everything is fair game.

The faster the West understands what Israel has had to contend with for much of the last 100 years, the greater chance it has to change course and defeat the Army of Jihad. If not, Americans and Europeans will be wondering why ambulances are not stopping for their sick and wounded. By that time there is not much to be done as the Army of Jihad will have won.