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Micha Gefen

Micha is a government policy analyst for Israel Rising.

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After North Korea Comes Iran

by Micha Gefen
written by Micha Gefen

Prime Minister Netanyahu said the following after President Trump’s historic summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

“I commend US President Donald Trump on the historic summit in Singapore. This is an important step in the effort to rid the Korean peninsula of nuclear weapons.

President Trump has also taken a strong stand against Iran’s efforts to arm itself with nuclear weapons and against its aggression in the Middle East. This is already affecting the Iranian economy. President Trump’s policy is an important development for Israel, the region and the entire world.”

The outcome of the summit in Singapore has already drawn a warning from Iran to North Korea.

“We don’t know what type of person the North Korean leader is negotiating with. It is not clear that he would not cancel the agreement before returning home,” Iranian government spokesman Mohammad Bagher Nobakht was quoted as saying by IRNA new agency.

Nobakht questioned Trump’s credibility. “This man does not represent the American people, and they will surely distance themselves from him at the next elections,” he said.



As it stands, Trump has returned home and the deal appears to still be standing.  In fact Trump has said he wants a new “real” deal with Iran.

“I hope that, at the appropriate time, after the sanctions kick in — and they are brutal what we’ve put on Iran — I hope that they’re going to come back and negotiate a real deal because I’d love to be able to do that but right now it’s too soon to do that,” Trump said.

The real game behind this summit was two-fold.  The first was to denuclearize the Korean peninsula, which both China and the USA have a serious interest to do and the second and perhaps real reason why Trump and his team took this unprecedented step to meet with the North Korean dictator was to disconnect it from Iran.  This isolates the Islamist regime in Tehran.

Trump does not believe he can get anything out of the Ayatollah’s who are driven by Shiite messianic ideology.  Kim Jong Un, while a brutal dictator does not appear to have an issue with Western cultural entertainment.  Can we say Dennis Rodman?

However, the Ayatollahs, firmly believe their purpose is to bring the Mahdi and destroy the world.  No amount of basketball and hotels will change this.  Meaning, there is no real ability to create a personal connection between them and the Trump team.

So what is next?

Trump will continue to isolate the regime in Tehran and make it clear he intends to back Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the other Gulf allies.  He will also attempt to turn Russia against Iran by guaranteeing Putin that he will keep control of Western Syria in return for Putin backing Iran’s abandonment of Syria and allotting the Syrian Kurds their own state or let’s call it proto-state.

Why would Putin go for this?

He historically does not like or trust Iran and it may well be that Trump will also relax US opposition to Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its growing control southeast Ukraine, otherwise known as the Donbass.

The USA will continue to isolate Iran militarily and economically. Will the regime in Tehran fold?  Probably not, but unlike North Korea, there is enough people in Iran that are educated and will eventually make it clear to their leaders that times up.

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Regional Analysis

Does Russia Really See Iran as an Ally in Syria?

by Micha Gefen
written by Micha Gefen

Despite the constant drumbeat of pseudo-security blogs and magazines like SouthFront, ZeroHedge, and SputnikNews claiming that the Russian and Iranian partnership is something akin to a strategic alliance, that if one relies only on those sorts of sites for regional affairs they come off baffled by Putin’s agreeable attitude towards Israel’s security demands visa vi Iran.

Regardless of the desires of most of these pro-Iranian English media outlets there has never been reason to believe that Russia and especially Putin saw Iran as anything more than a tool to clean out the Western back jihadists who came onto the scene under Obama.  Putin approached Syria carefully without a strong desire to place meaningful troops on the ground.  Assad was close to being toppled so the only real foot soldiers available at the time were Hezbollah and Iran.

Now that Assad is comfortably in control of the southwestern part of Syria, minus Darra and the Golan area, Iranian troops as well as Hezbollah are far less useful to Putin whose only interest is holding onto Syria as a strategic location for his fleet in the Eastern Mediterranean.  More so, Putin has a strong distrust of Iranian goals in the region and ultimately sees Tehran as a competitor on the energy production scene.

Putin and the Russian military do not see Iran as a reliable strategic ally.  They do however, see Israel as a stabilizing force in the region and although at odds with its Western bent, Putin and his team trust Israeli intentions not to inflame the region.  More so, they believe Prime Minister Netanyahu’s intent to stop Iran at all costs, which would ultimately send the region into a period chaos.  This is something Russia cannot afford at this point.

It is also key to look at the historical relationship between Russia and Persia (Iran).  Between the 17th and 19th centuries they fought a total of five wars, which ultimately saw Russia overpower the Persian empire.

In short, Putin’s strategic goals line up far more with Israel’s security needs than they do with Iran’s hegemonic desires.  Couple this with a negative history between Iran and Russia and it is easy to see why Putin is ready to encourage the Ayatollahs to leave Syria.



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Borders

Hamas Breaks Ceasefire, Israel Responds Destroying Military Targets in Gaza

by Micha Gefen
written by Micha Gefen

Hamas broke their own ceasefire last night by firing more than five rockets and mortars into Israel.  These landed in populated civilian areas sending residents fleeing into their bunkers.  The IDF attacked back immediately destroying multile military targets in Gaza.



Is War Coming to Israel’s South?

There is no doubt that Iran is pulling the strings of Hamas and Islamic Jihad in order to open up a third front against Israel.  The Gaza front has little to do with conquering territory.  Rather it is being activated with the sole purpose of draining Israel’s resources and attention away from the North, mainly from Iranian movements in and around the Golan. The war being waged against Israel, is designed to exact a psychological toll on Israel’s populace while buying time for Iran to find a hole in Israel’s defenses.

The first round of warfare clearly went to Israel, but unless Russia agrees to the total removal of Iran and Hezbollah from Syria and not just near the Golan, the noose will continue to tighten around the Jewish State.




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Deep State

Israeli Deep State Admits they Don’t Respect Democracy

by Micha Gefen
written by Micha Gefen

Tamir Pardo, the former Mossad head has now admitted that he and others were prepared to disobey orders given by Prime Minister Netanyahu to attack Iran several years ago. According to sources Netanyahu gave them 15 days to prepare.  Although the order was eventially nullified.  The reaction to many entrenched in Israel’s Deep State is telling.

In an interview set to air in Israel, Pardo admits that he and others questioned Netanyahu legal right to prepare the security arms to attack Iran.

“I made as many inquiries as I could,” he said. “I asked the previous Mossad chief…I asked legal experts. I asked everyone I could find to ask, in order to understand who has the authority to give orders on any issue which would start a war.”

“At the end of the day, if I receive an order, and if I receive an order from the Prime Minister, then I am supposed to carry it out. I need to be sure that if, G-d forbid, something goes wrong, or if the action fails, there won’t be a situation in which I did something illegal.”

In the interview Pardo claimed he was considering resigning.

“When the diplomats give an order, you have two options,” Pardo said. “One option is to carry it out, and another option is to hand in the keys. It’s good that I didn’t have to make that decision….though I did think of it.”

Reaction has been swift by the current government.

The current Deputy Defense Minister Eli Ben-Dahan said the following on Pardo’s revelation:

“What Tamir Pardo did was no less than an act of rebellion. In a democracy, those who the people elected are the ones who make the decisions. It is inconceivable that someone working in the public sector will refuse to listen to the government’s orders, when the government was chosen by Israeli citizens. His decision to discuss this topic when we are in the midst of an international battle against those funding Iranian terror harms the battle against Iran, solely for the sake of headlines.”



Deputy Minister Michael Oren also came out swinging at Pardo and Israel’s Deep State:

“The phenomenon of ‘securityists’ and ‘exes’ who come out against the government is only growing. It is important to remember that most of them do not see the overall picture and are not aware of all the factors that led to one decision or another. They are not skilled in decision-making on the international political-strategic level. Moreover, the prime minister has to rely on the people he appoints.”

Given the fact that Netanyahu himself is considered a security minded Prime Minister makes the decisions of Pardo and his colleagues very puzzling.  Israel’s Deep State has increasingly been cornered by Likud and Jewish Home leaders who have taken a proverbial broom to state institutions.

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Borders

BOMBS AWAY: Israel Strikes Back at Hamas Overnight

by Micha Gefen
written by Micha Gefen

With the increased mortar and rocket attacks coming from the Gaza Strip into Israeli population centers, Israel attacked back over night hitting more than 25 target in the Gaza Strip.



Hamas now claims it is requesting a ceasefire, however rockets were still being fired this morning into Israel.  The IDF’s strategy is to pound hard early on in order to end the offensive before it devolves into something larger. With Hamas claiming there is a ceasefire, it looks like the strategy is working.

Why Did Hamas Attack?

The mortar fire yesterday which sparked this round of hostilities between Hamas and Israel came at then of multiple weeks of riots and attempted infiltrations from Gaza into Israel.  Hamas was willing to use crowds to undertake terror operations against Israel, which included burning kites, which flew into Israel causing massive damage to crops.  Although this sort of thing had been taking a toll, it was not proving the necessary success Gazans needed to keep the game going.  The mortar attacks were part of the show, but now seemed to have been a miscalculation on the part of Hamas.

With most politicians unifying for a serious assault on Hamas if they don’t stop attacking, the ball has been squarley placed back in their court.  Then again, the leaders of Hamas and Islamic Jihad have already vacated their above ground homes, running to safety in bunkers. They will have to decide whether its better to risk a real war, with no one in the White House to hold Israel back or calm the situation back down.  The choice is theirs.




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