Author: Gavriel Dan

Gavriel Dan spent a number of years covering social movements in Israel, the wider middle east and Europe. He is considered an expert in embedding himself with various groups and causes in order to get accurate and rich information.
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CRAFTED BY TRUMP? Saudi King Names his 31 Year Old Son as Successor, Upending Political Order

As the battle lines between the Sunni Alliance being crafted by the Trump White House and the Iranian-Russian coalition harden, the Saudi King Salman has done the unbelievable named his 31 year old son as his successor.  In doing so he stripped 56 year old Crown Prince Nayaf his nephew of the potential to become monarch.

Al Arabiya television reported that the promotion of the prince was approved by the kingdom’s Allegiance Council with 31 of 34 members approving, and that the king had called for a public pledging of loyalty to Mohammed bin Salman on Wednesday evening in Mecca. The surprise announcement follows 2-1/2 years of already major changes in Saudi Arabia, which stunned allies in 2015 by launching a war in Yemen, cutting old energy subsidies and in 2016 proposing partly privatizing state oil company Aramco.

Mohammed bin Salman the King’s son is largely credited with the successful outreach to the Trump administration as well as the strategy behind the Qatar blockade. He is extremely ani-Iran and although young commands a vast portfolio in the government.

The current King is the last of the three sons of the original King Saud.  It has been clear for a while that the next generation would not follow the same royal ascension process.

What Does this Mean for Israel?

As Trump’s masterplan for the region begins to take shape, the major pillar of it is not peace between Israel and the Palestinians, but rather peace between Saudi Arabia and Israel. This is something big and can in time reshape the entire Middle East. To do this, Trump needs someone young, innovative, and easy to work with. The King’s son seems to be that guy.

As the Kingdom shifts from an overt backer of Islamist ideology (what it does covertly is something else) its relationship to Israel as the region’s leading technology hub and economic anchor is crucial.

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THE STRUGGLE FOR ISRAEL: EU and Arab MK’s Work Together to Undermine the IDF

Arab members of Knesset from the Joint List are violating the law by encouraging and assisting an organization that incites Arab youth not to enlist in IDF service, according to a new report published by the Zionist organization Im Tirtzu.

The report focuses on Bladna, a state-recognized non-profit organization whose activities include holding conferences, seminars and workshops dedicated to discouraging Arab youth from enlisting in the IDF and national service. Much of Bladna’s activities take place inside schools.

According to Section 109 of Israel’s Penal Code, a person is liable to five years imprisonment if he “incited or induced a person liable to service in an armed force not to serve in it or not to report for a military.”

The report explains how Bladna’s efforts to discourage the enlistment of Druze youth, who are liable for IDF service, represent a clear violation of the law. One example cited in the report was a 2016 “History of Palestinian Druze” seminar hosted by Bladna in the Druze town of Daliyat al-Karmel, which stressed the “importance of refusing to enlist.”

In addition, the findings raise concerns that Bladna’s activities also constitute as acts of sedition, which is defined by the Penal Code as “the promotion of conflict and enmity between different parts of the population.”

Arab members of Knesset have publicly supported the organization and have participated in their events. In April 2017, Joint List Chairman MK Ayman Odeh, MK Haneen Zoabi, MK Yousef Jabareen and MK Masud Ganaim participated in a Bladna-hosted a workshop in a Kfar Kanna school that focused on discouraging IDF enlistment.

Odeh’s involvement in the organization goes as far back as 2010, when he spoke at several Bladna conferences and was introduced as the Chairman of the Committee for Combating National Service and All Forms of Enlistment. In January 2017, Odeh voiced his support for refusing to enlist in a Twitter post.

The report also draws attention to Bladna’s funding, which include the US-based New Israel Fund and European governments. According to details obtained from Israel’s Non-Profit Registrar, in 2015 Bladna received nearly 2 million NIS from the European Union.

Chairman of the Subcommittee for Personnel in the IDF, MK Amir Ohana (Likud), announced his intention to convene an emergency committee session to discuss the findings of the report.

“We cannot allow for the haters of Israel to harm the IDF and its soldiers,” said Ohana. “These despicable individuals are trying to discourage IDF enlistment of the Druze community, which includes the best of our warriors and heroes.”

“The police must open a criminal investigation against those involved in Bladna, including MKs Odeh, Zoabi and Ganaim whose anti-Israel activity is in violation of two sections of the Penal Code: incitement to evasion of duty and sedition.”

Im Tirtzu CEO Matan Peleg emphasized how the New Israel Fund and European governments are trying to “brainwash” Arab youth against integrating in Israeli society.

“It is inconceivable that anti-Israel incitement can penetrate unhindered into Israeli schools,” said Peleg. “It is important to note how the ones to suffer the most are the Arab youth who are being brainwashed to oppose the society in which they live.”

“We are calling on the Attorney General to open an investigation against this foreign agent organization, for both inciting the Druze sector against IDF enlistment and for engaging in seditious activity by calling on an entire population of society to oppose the state.”

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US TO RUSSIA: We Will Defend Ourselves in Syria

The Syrian conflict has now spiraled put of to control to the point where Russia and the US are an incident away from WW3.

Sean Spicer, White House Press Secretary responded to Russia’s statement on shooting down US planes in Syria with this comment:

“Obviously, we’re going to do what we can to protect our interests,” Spicer said. “We will always preserve the right of self-defense.”

This is far more serious than anyone wants to admit. The US has no intent on keeping its fighter jets out of the sky since it would open up the SDF and YPG to heavily armed Syrian forces. Of course that is exactly what they want. Without the US providing air coverage, Syrian govenment forces would be abe to push them out of Syria.

Essentially Syria has now become a very bad game of  chicken.  The only question is whether someone will flinch.

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SYRIA ON THE BRINK: Russia Will Target US Airplanes in Syria

In response to the downing of a Syrian warplane by US forces yesterday, the Russian Defense Ministry said it will treat U.S.-led coalition planes in Syria, west of the Euphrates River, as targets.

Furthermore, Russia said it is suspending coordination with the United States in Syria. This coordination has kept the two super powers from direct conflict since 2015.

Is Direct Conflict Coming?

In one word, yes.  Without the deconfliction deal the chances of a direct conflict between the US and Russia is much higher.  Look for Putin to take steps in aiding the Syrian regime against US forces in Eastern Syria.

With a deconfliction agreement finished between the US and Russia, chances are Putin will scrap his deal with Israel.  This imperils the ability for Israel to defend itself in the Galilee and Golan.

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WAR ESCALATES: Why Did Iran Just Shoot Missiles Into Syria?

The war in Syria has gone from intensified to explosive as the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced that it fired several ground o ground missiles in from Western Iran into Syria’s Deir Ezzor region in the country’s East.

The purpose, according to the Iranians was a realiation for the attack on Tehran by ISIS on June 7th.

Most likely the Iranian missile attack on Eastern Syria was far more a message for the US coalition than a retaliation against ISIS.

Three points to consider:

  1. The proximity in time to the downing of a Syrian Warplane makes the missile attack a likely soft-retaliation for the US attack within sovereign Syria.
  2. The Iranians need a powerplay as the SDF/YPG are moving South and North in a rush to pick up the pieces as ISIS falls apart. The message is clear: “Don’t expect a post ISIS Syria to be a cake walk.”
  3. Iran wanted to send a message to Israel: “We can already reach you.”

As the Syrian war seems to be exploding in a far more dangerous and chaotic way all the issues surrounding the war are coming to a head.  The next move is now Trump’s…is he willing to stop Iran?