Author

Gavriel Dan

Gavriel Dan spent a number of years covering social movements in Israel, the wider middle east and Europe. He is considered an expert in embedding himself with various groups and causes in order to get accurate and rich information.

Politics

Is Oren Hazan Set to be the Next Israeli Prime Minister?

by Gavriel Dan August 2, 2017

written by Gavriel Dan

MK Oren Hazan, known for his bellicose nationalist views as well as a number of Knesset investigations was called back from a duel with his Jordanian counterpart Yahya Al-Saud on the Allenby Bridge today. Prime Minister Netanyahu put cold water on the high stakes rumble that was set to disrupt and reignite the already heated situation between Israel and Jordan.

The Prime Minister’s Office said that Netanyahu’s chief of staff Yoav Horovitz had called Hazan and implored him not to go to the meeting. Hazan complied with the request.

“I came today ready for a meeting of peace but when the prime minister asks, I respect his request,” he told Israel Radio from the border.

From the beginning Al-Saud had called upon Hazan to meet him for the duel.

“The shoe of any Palestinian child is more honorable than this villain and his entity [country],” Saud said of Hazan, according to Jordanian reports, “and the shoe of any Arab and Muslim is better than him and his rogue entity, which has no origin and no religion.”

Despite the fizzled end to the high stakes fight, there is current underneath the whole incident. Hazan will most likely never be Prime Minister, but he has his pulse on the great majority of Israel. It is this silent majority that swept Bibi and Likud back into power when no one thought they had a chance and it is this silent majority that is tired of the back tracking on security and national pride that seems to have guided Netanyahu’s decision on removing the security measures on the Temple Mount.

The street in Israel is highly unpredictable. Yet, there are some aspects to it that a guy like Oren Hazan gets. Israelis like the “gever,” the real man. Hazan may be unfitting to be Prime Minister, but he revealed something basic that Bibi Netanyahu is increasingly showing to have lost and that is a connection to real people on the street. Great rhetoric only goes so far in Israel. In times of confusion Israelis want action and that is what Hazan promises.

Bibi Netanyahu has succeeded in holding onto the reigns of power for a long time in Israel, but great speeches, political brinkmanship, and a great economy only work if you show that you get the common person. The nation senses security is fragile. They sense Israel’s national pride is being picked apart by half-nations. In those moments economy does not matter, because one’s basic assumptions about life are called into question. Netanyahu is losing his base and that means his inevitability is no longer guaranteed.

As stated Hazan won’t become Prime Minister, but someone else who gets the street and can be appealing to a majority of Israelis will and when they do they should thank Oren Hazan for piercing a hole in Prime Minister Netanyahu’s armor.

August 2, 2017 0 comments

Turkey Keeps the Riots Going in Jerusalem

by Gavriel Dan July 27, 2017

written by Gavriel Dan

As the PA is celebrating “their victory over Israel” Turkey has come out on top as it appears to have taken the reigns of Islamic leadership and chief benefactor of the “Palestinian” cause.

Wasting no time after the metal detectors were taken down around the Temple Mount, Turkish President Erdogan said the following:

“Israel took the right step to remove the metal detectors to help lower tension,” Erdogan said.”But is it enough according to our wishes? No, it is not.”

“The Israeli Government wants to destroy the Islamic character of Jerusalem with a new practice every day,” Erdogan continued.

Israel’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to Turkey’s accusation:

“It’s absurd that the Turkish government, which occupies Northern Cyprus, brutally represses the Kurdish minority and jails journalists, should lecture Israel, the only true democracy in the region. The days of the Ottoman Empire have passed.”

With Arab occupied neighborhoods around the Old City of Jerusalem still tense, even after the metal detectors were taken down earlier in the week, Turkey’s hand behind the riots has become more and more apparent. Any expectations that the Israeli government had in quieting down the situation has evaporated.

The Netanyahu government has exposed it right flank to collapse by appearing soft against Arab terror, while looking compliant in allowing the security sitation to deteriorate.

The Palestinian Arab occupants of Jerusalem have now stepped up their efforts to create more chaos in the name of “liberating Al Aqsa.”

Al Jazeera rreported the following statement from Mohammad Abu al-Hommos, an Palestinian Arab activist in Jerusalem’s Old City:

“Above all else, this is an issue of control and power. It is as if they are saying that they don’t want to deal with the Waqf, so they’re going to take matters into their own hands and monitor Palestinians through the cameras.”

“I want to go in and out of al-Aqsa as I please – who are they to surveil me?” he added. “I am entering a house of worship. It violates the individual’s personal space. Palestinians will continue to resist because we reject these measures. It is our right to reject.”

This statement encapsulates the battle on the ground. With Turkey and Qatar funding the uprising and PA President Abbas willing to continue to accommodate their strategy, Israel may be forced to rethink how they deal with the unfolding security crisis. Afterall, treating the Temple Mount like an object to be negotiated over, essentially inspires more and more terror not less.

The Israeli needs to confront Turkey directly over the increased financial and intelligence support given to the rioters within Jerusalem. If they don’t Turkey will increase the flames of the Temple Mount intifada until it succeeds in planting itself as the chief leader and adversary of Israel.

July 27, 2017 0 comments

Frontlines

Terror Attacks in Israel, Metal Detectors Pulled Down, Jordan Wins Temple Mount Back

by Gavriel Dan July 25, 2017

written by Gavriel Dan

Despite the feud that surfaced between the Hashemites and Turkey during the Temple Mount standoff, it was Turkey’s brute force through funding the Palestinian Arab riots that pushed Israel into a corner not King Abdullah’s negotiations. Erdogan and his government’s long arm reached into Jerusalem to show that strength still rules when it comes to decision making in the Middle East.

After Abbas, with Turkish backing threatened to ignite another intifada, King Abdullah of Jordan and the Netanyahu government came to an agreement over Temple Mount Security. With the terror attack on Neve Tsuf-Halamish resuting in the murder of three Jews, an attempted terror attack in Petach Tikvah as well as in Amman against Israel’s embassy staff, the Intifada threat appeared real.

The agreement between Israel and Jordan has yet to be publicised, but a report aired on Israel’s Channel 10 indicates the metal detectors will be removed and in their place will be an alternative set of security precautions. With Turkey set to win the Palestinian street, Jordan and Israel had to find a fast remedy to the unravelling security situation.

The UN Security Council put pressure on Israel as well and allowed Islamic violence to win the day out of fear of continued Islamic violence.

“It is extremely important that a solution to the current crisis be found by Friday this week,” said UN envoy Nickolay Mladenov after briefing the UN Security Council. “The dangers on the ground will escalate if we go through another cycle of Friday prayer without a resolution to this current crisis.”

Rather than stick out the terror onlaught bubbling to the surface throughout Israel, the Netanyahu government decided to cede sovereignty once again back to the Jordanian Waqf and in return recieve peace and quiet.

Despite the assurances that King Abduallah gave Netanyahu, the street will not stop at the removal of the metal detectors, but will push further with their new backer in Ankara.

July 25, 2017 0 comments

Regional Analysis

The Growing Intersection Between Turkey, Trump, Kurdistan, and the Golan

by Gavriel Dan July 20, 2017

written by Gavriel Dan

The publication by Turkey of more than 200 US bases and places of presence across Western Kurdistan, now occupied by Syria drew the ire of the Trump administration and the US Defense establishment. The Turkish government went ahead and published this list and map in protest of the US policy in supporting the growing autonomy of Western Kurdistan (Northern Syria), which runs along the border of Turkey in Northern Syria.

“The discussion of specific troop numbers and locations would provide sensitive tactical information to the enemy which could endanger Coalition and partner forces,” wrote Col. Joe Scrocca, coalition director of public affairs.

“Publishing this type of information would be professionally irresponsible and we respectively [sic] request that you refrain from disseminating any information that would put Coalition lives in jeopardy.”

Turkey views the rise of an independent Kurdistan as a non-starter, unless it is contained to the KRG in Northern Iraq. What is taking shape now though are two autnomous areas, which if joined would inspire Kurds living in Northern Kurdistan, occupied today by Turkey, to fight vigorously for their independence.

It is no secret that the US has ben aiding the YPG (Syrian Kurdish militias) and has rolled them into the broader Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), but the continued strengthening of this militia has crossed a red line for Erdogan.

Did Trump trade the Southwest of Syria for Western Kurdistan?

Despite the current opposition from Washington to the KRG’s drive towards a referendum on independence, the Trump administration still views the Kurds as the best avenue to push back on Iran and stablize the region. There is a four way tussle for Syria: Russia, Iran, Turkey, and the USA. Some of the sides work together and others don’t, but these four countries are busy establishing zones of control.

Up until the G-20 Ceasefire with Russia, it appeared that the USA and Russia were heading to a direct confrontation in the Southwestern part of Syria. To offset this, the Russians backed Turkey’s assault on the indigenous Kurds to the North. Putin hates Erdogan, but was ready to use him to battle Washington. The ceasefire changes things. With relative quiet in the Southwest, Putin can put the brakes on supporting Turkey’s assault against the Kurdish directed SDF.

Trump’s strategy here is clear. Consolodate the US gains in Western Kurdistan (Northern Syria), while letting Israel and Russia learn to work together in the Southwest. Trump now has a fighting force in Syria that is not only moderate, but is experienced in pushing back against ISIS and other Sunni radicals. More than that he pins Erdogan down, preventing the neo-Sultan from implementing his goals of expanding Turkey.

This strategy seems to benefit the US, but has been seen as dangerous by Israel due to the partnership between Russia and Iran. Given the propensity for Iran to utilize the Russian army as cover to move in on Israel, the tacit agreement with Russia is dangerous. Iran has already moved into the DMZ East of Israel’s Golan. With Hezbollah contantly infiltrating the Har Dov area in the Northern Golan, a similar presence to the East under the protection of Russian troops appears too much Israel to put up with.

With Hezbollah preparing for war, Israel is fast working to establish a deconfliction policy with Russia in the greater Golan area.

July 20, 2017 0 comments

Borders Regional Analysis

Why Does Israel Oppose the Syrian Ceasefire?

by Gavriel Dan July 17, 2017

written by Gavriel Dan

Reports in the media indicate that Prime Minister Netanyahu opposes the ceasefire in Southwestern Syria. The Hill quotes a source from Haaretz that “Netanyahu told French President Emmanuel Macron during a meeting Sunday that Israel does not support the agreement.”

The question is why. Afterall, on paper quiet in the Southwest on the border of Israel’s Golan Heights is a good thing. No one in the Israeli government would argue with quiet, yet the nature of the ceasefire allows for Russian observers to man the border region. This is a huge capitulation on behalf of the Trump administration. Up until the ceasefire, Israel could, when necessary hit back against Iranian, Hezbollah, and Syrian movements and arms smuggling. Now that Russian are essentially in the same locations, Israel will now have to make sure not to hit Russian forces while battling parties aimed at its destruction.

More than this, Putin seems intent on playing both sides. While he has set up a “deconfliction mechanism” with Israel, Putin keeps on moving the goal posts closer to Israel, which effectively renders the “deconfliction mechanism” pointless.

Most analysts, including myself are betting on a new round of fighting between Hezbollah and Israel sooner rather than later, regardless of the Trump-Putin ceasefire. Israel will have to hit quick and successfully in order minimize the amount of destruction it receives back at home. With Russia in the mix, this ability to wipe out Hezbollah missile infrastructure is severely hampered, especially since Iran and Syria have openly allowed Hezbollah to set up forward bases from Syrian territory. Considering our report yesterday about the ballistic missile factory now set up in Syria, Trump’s ceasefire appears to not only harm Israel, but ultimately America.

The Trump administration might have lowered the risks of going against Putin in Syria, but the White House’s decision has left the region far more imperiled than before.

July 17, 2017 0 comments

Newer Posts

Older Posts