Tag: Syria

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Jund al-Aqsa: What is America Hiding in Syria?

With the American military claiming the recent attack on the Syrian Arab Army a mistake, evidence seems to indicate that other forces are at play indicating that this attack was far from a mistake.  The attack on the Syrian Arab Army comes at a time when the fragile cease fire hammered out between the Americans and Russians appears to be unravelling already. 

Given the fact that the Americans have been operating in Eastern Syria for a while, how could they possibly make a mistake like this?  Afterall they know the Deir Ez-Zor  area far better than the other players, even Russia.

deir-ez-zor

Something that will shed light on the attack is the group the Syrian Arab Army was fighting. Their name is Jund al-Aqsa and despite their affiliation to radical salafist ideology the US only named them a terrorist entity 3 days ago.  In fact they were funded by the US and given sophisticated weaponry in their fight against the Syrian Army.

Salman Rafi Sheikh of the New Eastern Outlook says the following:

A look at the pattern of how the US-led coalition has been striking in the region would further reveal that the last strike, which killed more than 60 Syrian soldiers, was not simply a mistake. ISIS and the Syrian army have been fighting in the region, in Deir ez-Zor, for a long time. How come it be that the US led coalition never struck ISIS when it was rather successfully moving westward, for example, when it took Palmyra last year? Consistent with its current narrative, the US officials might like to put on this question another mask of “coincidence” and deep “regret.”

 

Since the “mistaken” American strike Jund al-Aqsa has been on a role in other areas, most notably Hama farther to te West and near Aleppo.  In those areas they have pushed back the Syrian Army and gained considerable ground.

The American air strike seems more like a supporting mission that was uncovered by the Russians.  But there is more.  The ceasefire was opposed by Ashton Carter the American Secretary of Defense and most of the Defense establishment who are hell-bent on removing Assad from power by any means necessary. They have been using ISIS style terror entities as proxies for a while and until the Russians entered the fray it worked.

Now with the Russia and the Syrian Army pushing back most of the gains the US proxies made over the last few years, the US defense establishment is taking one last chance by using ISIS off shoots like Jund al-Aqsa to push back against the Syrian Army.  By declaring the air strikes a mistake the US hopes to cover he fact that ISIS as we know it is really the Frankenstein of the Department of Defense led by Ashton Carter.

This Frankenstein has gone mad.

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BREAKING NEWS: Turkey Invades Syria as Next Stage in War Begins

Multiple sources are reporting that Turkish special forces backed by artillery fire and F-16’s have begun a direct military assault on ISIS positions in Northern Syria.  Turkish combat units such as regular infantry and tanks have rolled up to the Syrian border and are preparing to enter sovereign Syrian territory for the first time.

Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said:

Daesh [ISIS] should be completely cleansed from our borders and we are ready to do what it takes for that.

This change in Turkey’s relationship to the ongoing Syrian civil war is drastic and very well can lead to untold consequences as  Turkey’s goals both align with the anti-ISIS coalition as well as are in conflict with it.  Erdogan often times uses ISIS as a foil to attack Kurdish positions in both Syria and Iraq.  The Turkish government has resigned itself to a Kurdish autonomous zone in Northern Iraq, but when the Syrian Kurds literally declared a federalized autonomous entity in Northern Syria, Turkey knew it had limited time to react before an inevitable Kurdish state arose on its border stretching from the Mediterranean to Iran.

The anti-ISIS particulars behind Turkey’s intensifying an already out of control conflict gives it the wiggle room it needs to invade Syria.  The only question remains is whether Putin agreed to this or not. If he did not, then the Syrian civil war just got a whole lot uglier.

Yet, if this was agreed between Erdogan and Putin beforehand then the Russian leader must have promised Erdogan something big in return for destroying the very group Turkey helped set up in order to make a lot of money off the illegal oil trade.  Of course, Erdogan didn’t do this alone.  US and NATO were at least complicit with the set up of ISIS, a radical Sunni group in Eastern Syria. Using oil as payment to Turkey, NATO and the US were free to establish a blocking force against Iranian advancement, albeit one that has grown out of control.

Now with Turkey’s pivot to Russia, ISIS is more of a hindrance than a help.  So what is the quid pro quo from Russia? Russia’s abandonment of the Kurds makes that an easy answer.

 

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Russian Chopper Downed in Syria, Kremlin says: “All aboard are dead”

The Kremlin announced that all 5 Russian military personel onboard the downed chopper, have been reported dead. The chopper was shot down above the Idlib Province. The Russian Defense Ministry spokesman said, “All five died a heroes death as they were on a humanitarian mission.  According to Russian sources the helicopter swerved away from civilian areas as it crashed to avoid unneeded deaths.

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WAR DRUMS: Is a Golan Clash Imminent?

What seemed highly improbable just a few months ago, appears very real today.  In the topsy-turvy middle east anything is possibly these days.  A large amount of politicians have counted Bashar Assad out since the beginning of Syria’s brutal civil war. These naysayers include former Primer Minister Ehud Barak and President Obama. Yet, in power Assad stands and now with a very invigorated Putin behind him, Assad’s moves on the Golan border are forcing Israel into a very tough position.

Israel can no longer afford to pretend to be neutral as the last vestiges of resistance to the Assad regime it helped create is destroyed.  Beyond that, remaining neutral allows Syria, Iran, and Hezbollah to build up right on Israel’s border.

Can’t Israel Trust Russia to Reign in Assad?

Trusting Putin depends how much one really believes he is a trustworthy individual.  Putin’s goal is to what’s best for Russia and it is far easier for him to force Israel into a weakened bargaining position. Make no mistake, Putin has no interest in destroying the Jewish state, but he wants to make the quiet he is supposed to enforce worthwhile. A cornered Israel dependent on the good graces of Russia, is exactly what Putin wants. Yet if te middle east has proved one thing over the past few years, it is unpredictability.

Already Out of Putin’s Hands

There is a false notion often bandied about across a wide spectrum of geopolitical thinkers that says Russia is in direct control of Iranian actions as well as Syrian.  Russia has always viewed Syria as his puppet, but when it comes to the Iranians it is often an uneasy partnership that only works because of shared short-term interests. Assad’s regime owes its existence to both Russia and Iran and therefore as long as its two benefactors have a mutual interest in not fighting Israel, Assad can be held back.

Iran has a short window of time to take action against the Jewish State. Russian intervention in Syria has allowed Assad and the Iranian forces there to be able to strengthen and position themselves with little problem in forward attack position on the Golan border.  Hezbollah still has 100’s of thousands of rockets aims at Israel. Russia does not want a war with Israel, but if one occurs the Arab and Iranian assumption is that it is Israel who will refrain from attacking out of fear of Russian intervention.  As far as Russian reigning them in, Putin wouldn’t be able to, even if he wanted.  Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah are all needed by Russia in their fight against American and Turkey proxy forces in the region.

In the coming days, the tension already in full display on the Golan border is bound to increase due to a failed Israeli assassination attempt on Syrian General Majid Heymoud reported by the Iranian Fars News Agency. Will Israel risk upsetting its delicate relationship with Russia in order to preempt an Iranian-Syrian play for the Golan?

 

 

 

 

 

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Hezbollah Drone Maybe a Harbringer for Renewed Fighting with Israel

The collective wisdom is that Hezbollah is too caught up with supporting the Assad government’s fight against ISIS to attack Israel, but Hezbollah’s penetration of Israel’s airspace in the Golan yesterday using a drone, may be an indication that things are about to change.

The IDF fired two Patriots at the drone and missed their target.  The drone made it back to its origin in Syria.  For Hezbollah, drones are a perfect form of both psychological warfare and reconnaissance. The important question is whether this is more of the same from Hezbollah or should Israel be prepared for renewed combat against Hezbollah.

In the last year the area West of the Golan has been the scene of warfare between Jihadist like Al-Nusra or ISIS and Hezbollah and Syrian Government Forces. There have been stray shells that penetrated the Golan and other incidents, but Hezbollah until recently has stayed focused on extraditing the Assad regime from the grips collapse.

The ramifications of renewed fighting between Hezbollah and Israel could be wide. The IDF will have to contend with Iranian troops as well as the Syrian army which is looking to raise morale. Fighting the “Zionists” is an excellent way to do that. The real unknown is Russia’s reaction.  Putin has taken a liking to Israel and wants it within his sphere of influence, yet is fully aware that he has supported Iran, Hezbollah, and Syria in their fight against ISIS.  At some point Putin will have to make a decision on which party to support for the long term. Renewed combat between Israel and Hezbollah will bring that decision to the forefront.

 

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Headlines June 8: Israel Strikes Syrian Weapons, Bibi & Putin, NASA & Israel to Mars

Israeli Air Force jets attacked a missile storage facility in Syria over the weekend, targeting a number of military sites said to be housing advanced weaponry.
[The Jerusalem Post]

 

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, at the Kremlin, held a lengthy working meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin. They discussed a large number of issues including Syria and other regional issues pertaining to the national security of both countries. The two leaders discussed the continuation of regional coordination between their respective militaries, which has worked very well up until now. They also discussed agricultural issues (milk production with the assistance of Israeli technologies), the pensions agreement that was signed between the two countries, tourism, health, the manufacture of medicines and other issues.
[Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs]

 

NASA chief expresses interest in Israel helping with manned mission to Mars‏
[Arutz Sheva]

 

Israel and Ukraine sign agreement for employment of Ukrainian construction workers
[Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs]

 

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Tuesday that in just one or two meetings a rapprochement deal with Israel will be reached, indicating that the normalization talks started last December are reaching a close.
[Arutz Sheva]

 

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Telling the Truth About Humanitarian Israel

In December 2015, the British Daily Mail reported that Israel had saved more than 2,000 Syrians since 2013, at a cost of 50 million shekels ($13 million). Many of those saved were Islamic militants and sworn enemies of Israel, while only around 20 percent were civilians, according to the report.

These humanitarian rescue missions are very controversial. Why should Israel risk its soldiers and spend money to rescue Salafists who have a burning wish to destroy Israel? But it does, and this attests yet again to the under-reporting of facts about Israel in the international media. Compared to Israel’s size and the magnitude of Israel’s own security issues in the region, it is remarkable how Israel manages to be there for so many people in need around the world. When detractors whine about Israel not carrying its share of humanitarian outreach in the region, they are of course conveniently overlooking the fact that Israel is carrying infinitely more than what should be expected of a nation of Israel’s size, especially when that nation is actually treating and caring for its own enemies.

In just one development, Israel saved a 5-year old girl after she was seriously wounded in a firefight between rival militias in Syria. But that was not all. Israel is now also saving her from the cancer Israeli doctors discovered she was suffering while she was hospitalized in Haifa’s Rambam Hospital.

The story reads like something out of a thriller that could only take place in Israel: The hospital refused to release the girl after doctors discovered that she had cancer and security officials agreed. A bone marrow donor had to be found, and was — a relative living in an unnamed country that is an enemy of Israel’s, rendering it impossible for the relative to travel openly to Israel. Instead, a secret operation by Israel’s security services was launched to smuggle the relative out of that country and into Israel. The relative arrived on Monday and is now quarantined at the hospital with the girl, awaiting for the first round of treatment.

All the characteristics of the typical Israeli approach to life make up the ingredients of this story: the feeling of extreme responsibility of the doctors, refusing to let the girl go after saving her life once, and the almost unbelievable willingness of the security forces to risk their own soldiers to save her. This is Israel at its best and it is not a rare occurrence in this country, even if this particular example is of course extraordinary.

This is the ethos of Judaism and it is the ethos of Israel. But the world will never acknowledge this, because it refuses to see and hear the truth about Israel with a savage stubbornness that is reserved only for Israel. Appreciating that Israel values life above all else — all life, not just Jewish life — would make the anti-Israeli hatred, the anti-Jewish tropes and caricatures, the howls of “apartheid” and “injustice” melt away in an instant.

In an age where facts have long ceased to matter, however, all that the haters, especially those in the boycott, divestment and sanctions movement, have to do is ignore those facts. The world is overflowing with naked emperors prancing about, peddling their lies and delusions to uncritical and impressionable audiences, who are much too willing to subscribe to them.

Thankfully, however, those lies and delusions are not having much of an impact on Israel itself. They are, however, having a detrimental effect on especially Diaspora Jewry around the world, notably on young Jewish students on college and university campuses in the West, where the anti-Israeli narratives are strong and thriving, not only in the BDS movement, but even among college and university staff to whom these narratives are almost as natural as breathing.

It is only persistence and proud stubbornness that will ultimately make the truth about Israel prevail in those dark corners, where the prejudiced hatred against Israel is allowed to fester. It is a supreme irony, of course, that Western universities have become feeding grounds for this hatred, considering that they are the rightful inheritors of the tradition of Enlightenment. This irony, however, is lost on most college students today, but it ought not to be lost on those who still believe in the value of truth and getting that truth out there. The story of Israel’s rescue of Syrians would be a good place to start.

(Originally published on Israel Hayom)

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Can the Turkey-Russian War Break the Alliance System?

Are we in 1914 or 2016.  Sometimes with all of the alliances it’s hard to tell.  Then again when it comes to Syria there are some outliers that might just throw the alliance system out the window. With the war in Syria on the verge of turning into a much wider conflict it is important to understand how all the sides are stacked.

Russia, Iran, Syria, Armenia

The Shiite-Russian alliance has been steadily growing for some time. The pervading assumption has been Russia’s need for a Mediterranean port being behind his support of Assad.  With Turkey’s downing of the SU-24, Putin’s calculus has changed.

Long an opponent of Turkey’s expansionism, Putin used the SU-24 incident to turn the screws on Turkey’s Erdogan. Armenia, a close ally of Russia is being beefed up as a potential launching pad for attacks against Turkey.  Besides its alliance with Russia, Armenia has historical redresses with Turkey going back to the 1915 Armenian Genocide.

Iran and the Syrian government’s forces have become Russia’s ground troops in taking back the strategic Western part of the country. Russia has avoided a repeat of its Afghanistan debacle by using the Shiite armies to do its work. Besides that, the Shiites are giving Russia real geopolitical leverage against the region’s Sunni powers.

Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Gulf States

What makes the stakes so high in Syria, is the exacerbation of the Sunni-Shiite conflict.  With Russia in full concert with the Shiite led countries, the Sunni states like Saudi Arabia and Turkey see no other choice but to go into the fray.  The reasoning is simple: the Shiites with a resurgent Russia need to be stopped now or risk being too formidable once their gains are entrenched.

The Sunnis are 90% of the Islamic world, but the growing Shiite crescent creates a real strategic nightmare for them, effectively cutting the Sunni world in two and, of course, controlling key oil routes that will have a very real effect on future regional control.

NATO

Although conventional wisdom insists that NATO would issue the game changing Article 5 in the case of a Turkish-Russian war, it is not at all clear NATO will pick a side. Europe is very much dependent on Russian gas during the winter.  They are also trying to tamp down the off again on again conflict in East Ukraine and need Russia to help them.  As for Obama and the USA, getting into a war with Russia and the Shiites on behalf of Turkey and the gulf states is not something they want.  

With all of that being said, a full out war between Russia and Turkey will have large consequences for energy control, economy, and refugees.  NATO may have little choice but to jump into things on behalf of their most disliked member, Turkey, even if the gamble proves to be a negative one.

Greece, Cyprus, Israel

With Greece, Cyprus, and Israel’s new found partnership in energy, technology, and security all three of them are loath to pick sides in what is fast turning into a geopolitical typhoon.  Greece and Cyprus are arch enemies of Turkey and it is no surprise that Greece has made it clear that they see Russia as a friend and potential partner.  This of course puts Israel into an uncomfortable position.  At one hand, Israel has been seeking what is known as a neutral foreign policy for decades and, on the other hand, is still very much in the orbit of Europe and the USA.  

With Russian overflights of Israeli airspace increasing daily and new trade avenues opening up with the very countries aligned with Russia, it should no longer be surprising what side the government in Jerusalem picks. Then again, that would put it on the same side as its arch enemies, Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah.  Russia insists it has them in check, but trusting Putin has never been a good idea.

Of course, Bibi and Israel rather stay out of it and continue trading with all parties equally, but remaining neutral may no longer be an option.

Jordan

The King of Jordan has vacillated between the West and Russia.  In many ways for the same reason Israel has. Surrounded by ISIS and Al Qaida, King Hussein’s rule is the most tenuous in the Middle East.  Assurances for his family and his throne’s safety are key.  If Russia can promise protection, then Jordan may very well switch sides.

Kurdistan

Kurdistan has always been hard to read. Typically speaking, the Kurds (split between Turkey, Syria, and Iraq) have done their best to pick partners that would be willing to help them advance their independence agenda. In this case, Russia seems most willing to help defend and enhance Kurdish objectives; mainly because the Kurds are the single biggest domestic threat to Turkey.

If a Turkish-Russian war does materialize then the Kurds are Putin’s most important weapon.  They give Putin a Turkish domestic constituency primed for a violent uprising.  In addition, they are a formidable fighting force situated along the length of Turkey’s entire Southern border.  Coupled with the fact that Iraqi Kurdistan is oil rich makes them the lynchpin Putin needs.

What’s Next?

Full on war between Russia and Turkey and their respective allies seems almost certain at this point.  The question is: when? That depends much on Turkey’s actions in the next few days.  If the Turkish army continues to shell Northern Syria and even sends troops in then Russia will act. Russia will claim they have no choice but to capture the Bosphorous Straits, in order to defend against a Turkish closure to Russian vessels. At that point, the key actor to look at is NATO.  If they enter on the side of Turkey,  Russia will send their army into Ukraine. Once that happens all bets are off.

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Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the Imminent Threat of Expanding War

If the latest reports out of the Levant are true, Turkey has quite possibly sparked a global war. RIA Novosti reports by way of Sputnik News the following:

“Turkish artillery opened fire on the positions of the Syrian army in the Alia hills region of northwest Latakia. Several shells have fallen from Turkish territory.”

Latkia
Latkia

Given the fact that Turkey has been building up its armed presence on the Syrian border has been seen by many as a sign of impending invasion.  Furthermore, Saudi Arabia has made it clear they would like to move ground troops into Syria in order to fight ISIS.  The combination of the two Sunni allies potentially sending ground forces into the Syrian chaos guarantees an exponential expansion of the war.

Russia, Iran, and the Assad regime know the Sunni countries will not sit by and watch themselves become diced up by Russian backed Shiite forces.  The Sunnis have spent way too much capital in stopping the burgeoning Shiite crescent to not try to push it back when it matters most.

Russia is not Backing Down

With oil prices falling and a weakened West, Russia cannot afford to back off it’s growing entanglement with Syria, especially since they appear to be winning. This is Putin’s gamble and he wants and needs to win. They have proven that sheer force and a disregard to international norms when attacking civilian areas can defeat what they view as radicalism.  Putin is sending a message out to the Islamic militants within Russia, not to mess around.

Erdogan Needs a Win or Else

Erdogan really thought that he would have been able to woo Israel back into his fold.  Yaalon has now indicated that it will not happen.  Without an energy partner and a tightening embargo from Russia, Erdogan has to push back on the Syrian forces that are maligning ethnic Turkmen in Northern Syria.  Even more so, Erdogan has to show that he is still viable.  Bombing Syria and taking the Northern territory is the surest way to do that.  Of course it could very well ignite a conflict far more destructive throughout the entire region.

 

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[Podcast] Putin’s Oil Quagmire

With oil prices down to $30 and falling fast Russia cannot afford to put the kind of emphasis on military campaigns it needs to in order to be counted on to defeat Islamic extremists.  This leaves ISIS in a far better position than the Obama administration would have everyone believe. It also means that the transition to a multi-polar world is no where near done.  One thing that is clear, Israel should not jump into any strategic alliance even if it seems  helpful in the short term.  In the great global shift we find ourselves in, strategic alliances are hard to come by.

Listen to today’s podcast for greater insight on where things are going. Hang on to your seats change starts now!

  1. http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Industry/2016/01/11/Putin-says-economy-under-threat/8231452508249/
  2. https://www.rt.com/op-edge/328930-libya-oil-fields-accord/
  3. http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4751759,00.html