The Great Game: Turkey-Israel Detente, Russian-Iranian Cooperation, and the Kurdish Question

The old adage “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” has been an increasingly confirmative rule in middle eastern governing circles.  With the collapse of American hegemony in the region that has caused a resurgent Russia and Iran to take charge of areas that stretch from Iraq to Levant, countries normally at odds with one another have found the strange inclination to actually form alliances to offset the bear and the ayatollahs.

The Turkish-Israeli rapprochement took many people by surprise, but in the current geopolitical realities, the détente makes perfect sense.  Keep in mind Turkey, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt all have the same enemy in Iran and fellow Shiite travellers.  Throw Putin’s Russia into the mix and the Sunni states were very quick to find the only other middle eastern nation they could bring in.  The danger of Iran and Russia is so great for these forces, Palestinian issue, which has long been used as a foil to placate the Arab street has been move to the back of the Sunni’s list of priorities.

Israel as the Anchor

Israel is actively seeking a cornerstone role in the wide-ranging alliance forming in the western part of the middle east. One can already see this in the gas deals being built between Egypt, Greece, Cyprus, and Israel.  With Turkey being brought on board, Israel’s role in bringing old foes to the same table is not being missed, especially by Russia, who thought it had Erdogan cornered.

Israel’s game is to offset Russia’s power play to its north by giving a lifeline to Turkey, Russia’s age-old adversary.  For now it seems to be working, although it is clear Russia is remains unnerved by the “Great Game” and is willing to pressure Israel by backing up Iranian, Syrian, and Hezbollah forces on the Golan border.

What About the Kurds?

Kurdistan as it is known by all Kurdish people across the middle east is spread across northern Syria, Iraq, southern Turkey, and western Iran. Turkey’s main challenge is to dissuade the Kurds from working directly with Russia. If they are not able to, then Russia will have  a fifth column of 10 million strong disenfranchised Kurds inside Turkey to use as leverage if needed.

Right now, barring a severe flare up in Israel’s northern border the “Great Game” of the middle east is in its early phases.  Geo-political maneuvering is still fresh and fluid.  Russia may opt to play neutral in the burgeoning alliance system and let Iran and Syria go it alone.  Russia may also be able to convince Israel to remain neutral as well in exchange for security promises.  No matter the outcome, this “Great Game” will not take 100 years like the last one as America’s pull back has shuffled the deck and wrought chaos on what was already considered a chaotic region.

Can Bibi Netanyahu and Vladamir Putin Save Kurdistan from the new Sultan of Turkey?

Bibi Netanyahu made waves last year when he came out in support of an independent Kurdistan. It really should not have been a surprise to observers as Israel has been a covert supporter of the Kurdish independence movement since its early days. Not only does Israel’s military supply the Peshmerga with weapons and training, the government has been buying Kurdish oil through back channels.

All of this has worked well for both sides as the Kurds have needed the training and money and Israel has needed a reliable partner on the ground to push back on ISIS, block Iran, and cause problems for Erdogan.  Now that Erdogan has used the coup, staged or real to complete his takeover of Turkish democratic institutions, the question for observers is which domestic constituent is his first target?

 

None of this should be a surprise.  Erdogan has scapegoated the Kurds for years.  True there are militant factions who would like to gain independence (rightfully so) but remember there are 10 million Kurds in Turkey alone and they are the majority in some Southern regions.  Erdogan will  attempt to settle the score and cement his rule by wiping the Kurdish people off the map. Turkey has done this before, over 100 years ago by killing millions of Armenians.

 

There are really only two leaders that can throw a monkey wrench in Erdogan’s plans: Bibi Netanyahu and Vladimir Putin.  Both of these leaders have not only warmed to each other, but have negative experiences with Erdogan.  Both of them were willing to bury the hatchet before the weekend for the sake of economics and stability, but dealing with a newly minted “Sultan” should change their minds.  With the Kurds being a moderating force and the only group proven successfully rule their region within the former Iraq and Syria, it is in both Putin and Netanyahu’s interests to stop Erdogan in his tracks.

 

How Can they Do This?

The first thing they can do is freeze rapprochement with Turkey. This may not work by itself, but it will send a message.  Next they need to arm the Kurds in Northern Iraq and Syria with modern weapons and provide air cover in case Turkey decides to attack them in those areas.  Lastly, they need to begin to provide covert assistance to Kurdish groups to defend themselves from Turkey’s now authoritarian ruler.

If Putin and Netanyahu do this, they will be credited in preventing a massive genocide and redrawing the map of the Middle East for the foreseeable future.

Masoud Barzani: Kurdistan is ripe for independence

“The strong forces drew the borders, but now they are essentially destroyed and the time has come that this current reality has to be admitted and accepted,” Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani said yesterday.  “We should admit that the concept of citizenship did not come forth, and the borders have no meaning anymore. It means Sykes-Picot is over.” The Kurdish leader also added: “Kurdistan is ripe for independence.”

After the defeat of the Ottoman Empire, the Sykes-Picot agreement redrew the borders of the Middle East 100 years ago.   The borders the French and British drew had more to do with their interests than any relevancy to natural tribal boundaries.  Similarly to Africa, the colonial powers often times forced bitter enemies or culturally competitive societies to live together. By doing this, they created conflicts still unresolved today. It also allowed for Arabists to push migration of disenfranchised Arabs into the Mandate of Palestine as well as traditional Kurdish lands.  This artificially created an Arab presence in these areas, where historically it was very small.

Sykes-picot[1]

With Western strength receding in the region, indigenous peoples, like the Kurds, Jews, and Druze are beginning to push back on the artificial boundaries placed on their traditional lands.  Barzani’s statement is a serious step in truly creating a new Middle Eastern order.

Who are the Winners and Losers from an Independent Kurdistan?

Masrour Barzan  Chancellor of the Kurdistan Region Security Council said in a Washington Post Opinion piece, “It is time to acknowledge that the experiment has not worked. Iraq is a failed state, and our continued presence within it condemns us all to unending conflict and enmity.”

This veiled threat to carry out a referendum on Kurdish independence has a lot more legs to it than most pundits would believe.  The Kurdistan Regional Government has been toying with such a move for a while and the growing vacuum in Iraq has given them ample reason to move ahead with such a move.

The question is not if the Kurds will push for independence from Iraq, but when they do, who are the winners and losers from such a move.

Winners:

Russia opens up another potential partner in the chaos that is the Middle East.  Rich with oil, Kurdistan will provide Russia with a stable base of operations in one of the most contested regions in the world.

Israel will find its long term support of a non-Arab entity in the Middle East to be fruitful. For years Israel has provided intelligence, training, and economic ties to the fledgling Kurdish Autonomous Region.  It gains a forward base against Iran and direct access to an emerging oil market.

Losers:

Turkey stands to have the most to lose as they have opposed Kurdish independence from the beginning.  Turkey has more ethnic Kurds than the Kurdish region in Iraq.  An independent Kurdistan could very well inspire a full scale uprising and secession movement from Turkey’s Kurds.  This would be a disaster for Erdogan.

Iraq will suffer a blow it will not recover from.  Mosul and the other Kurdish dominated areas in Iraq’s North are potentially the most valuable.  Iraq would suffer other secessionist movements if Kurdish independence is successful.

The Sunni states will lose their leverage as Western allies due to the fact the Kurds are far more moderate and likely to generate both geopolitical and financial support.

United States policy will suffer another setback as Kurdish independence is a clear indicator that Washington’s leverage is in decline.

Decolonizing the Future

“If I had a world of my own, everything would be nonsense. Nothing would be what it is, because everything would be what it isn’t. And contrary wise, what is, it wouldn’t be. And what it wouldn’t be, it would. You see?”

Lewis Carroll, Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland & Through the Looking-Glass

 

The issue of Israel’s legitimacy is a question once reserved to the far left corners of Western academia and Arabist leaders in the middle east.  As time has gone on delegitimizing Israel has moved more and more mainstream.

As India, the Kurds, and East African countries rise out of the bonds of neo-colonial European, Arab, and Sunni Muslim oppression, the global security state which formed post Cold War has kicked into hyper drive to denounce many of these countries as aggressors, terror sponsors, or corrupt as well.

Essentially, the Western world as well as their Arab allies has gone about flipping the once colonized to the status of those doing the colonization.  This is true, whether it is meant for Israel, Kurdistan, or even India.  What is behind this seemingly warped sense of reality, where the former oppressed are deemed the new oppressors?

 

European and Arab Countries Fear the New Emerging Order

For years it was BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), but now there is a sense that another order is beginning to emerge.  The future of Israel, India, Kurdistan, and East Africa have become unexpectedly intertwined.

East Africa, Israel, and India were all former British colonies.  Israel and India gained their independence the same year and Kenya became independent in 1963, with other East African states following suit shortly after. These former colonies are homes to ancient cultures oppressed both by Arab or Muslim radicals as well as White European Christians. The exploitation of these areas first occurred in Israel when the Romans conquered Judea and dispersed much of indigenous Judeans to the far reaches of the Empire.  The remaining Jews withstood Byzantine aggression only to be forcibly converted by Arab Islamic conquerors in the 8th Century.  

This same parallel occurred in East Africa as Arab slave traders weakened Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania long before the Europeans finished the brutalization through forcibly confiscating Kenyan land and colonizing the country.

Indian Hindus fought off the Islamic hordes for centuries only to be taken over by British muscle.In all of the three cases the British and other European interlocutors used the artificial Arab and Islamic presence to weaken th indigenous rights of the true national owners.  The partnership with European colonialists and slave traders with Arab and Islamic leaders benefited both sides.  The Europeans were able to control the indigenous population by ’giving claim to the false Arab and Islamic narrative, while the Islamic Umma expanded its control.

The rise of real partnerships, based on mutual trust, parallel histories, and common aspirations is scary to Europeans who are being left out as their continent falls into the abyss and is likewise threatening to the Arab and Radical Islamic movement that suffers the greatest when it appears weak to its followers.

 

What About Kurdistan?

Kurdistan is increasingly being seen as an independent actor.  When the Peshmerga was seen as an ally against ISIS, the world cheered, but independence was a dream that would have gone too far. The truth is, Kurdistan has long been colonized by the Arab and Turkish world.  The artificial boundaries of the Sykes-Picot agreement were placed in order satisfy the power of both the Arabs and Turkish regime rather than allow the real indigenous people of Northern Iraq, Syria and Southern Turkey to thrive and control what is rightfully theirs.

As the Sykes-Picot lines are beginning to melt away the inevitability of an independent Kurdistan is now a reality. Israel has already expressed support for an independent Kurdistan.  With Kurdistan’s realization, the new Middle East, Africa, and Indian sub continent would reshape global economic and geopolitical affairs.

 

The Only Weapon Left is Delegitimization

The fractured and weakened Europe and primitive Arab world has only one arrow left in their proverbial quiver and that is to delegitimize these countries as oppressors, terror actors, capitalists, and colonizers.  

The world has classified Israel as the occupier when it comes to the Palestinians, even though most Palestinians are new inhabitants save for the residents of the villages in and around Hebron who were forcibly converted over a thousand years ago.

India is deemed racist and nationalistic as Modi their Hindu ultra-nationalist prime minister has charted an independent foreign policy. The international community plays the Punjab controlled Islamic state of Pakistan against India when it comes to the disagreement over Kashmir, when in reality Pakistan was carved from India in 1948 to placate the Muslim world, which invaded India and is the one supporting terror.

Kenya and the surrounding countries are now seen as “corrupt” as they have sought to modernize and realign themselves away from Europe and the Arab world in favor of Israel and India.

The Kurds are deemed terrorists, when in reality it is the Turks who support and nurture ISIS. The Europeans and Americans have promised to aid the Kurds and yet decade after decade the West has purposely held back real arms and support.

 

Conclusion

As the old global security and economic structures collapse the powers behind the scenes will unavoidably paint a world that is based on falsehoods rather than the truth.  This old world will not succeed as long as the new players, the formerly oppressed continue to work together to create a new type of world; one that is based on truth and fairness as well as a rectification of past grievances.  These grievances began with the destruction of the Temple in Jerusalem by the Romans and continued into Africa and the Near East by the Arab world and Europeans.