Tag: Jordan

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Is Jordan In The Middle Of A Coup?

ArabNN is reporting that the rumors surrounding the disappearance of Jordan’s King are picking up steam as even Eddie Cohen of the Jerusalem Post appears to be confirming them.

Jordanian Opposition Leader Mudar Zahran has been agitating for full Palestinian rights in Jordan. 80 percent of Jordan’s populace are Palestinian Arabs and yet the King and his clan, along with the Muslim Brotherhood have essentially monopolized the country’s wealth and disenfranchised the majority of the populace. There has been growing discontent over the last year and calls for overthrowing the monarchy have grown.

“Jordan is facing unprecedented financial turmoil and COVID 19 death toll is rising at a staggering rate,” Jordanian Opposition Coalition (JOC) Leader Mudar Zahran said. “The ruling Hashemite family has systematically destroyed the country, and because no one has seen him in days, many are now asking: “Where’s Waldo?”

“Abdullah is clearly missing in action, and over 9 million Jordanians are searching for Waldo,” Zahran continued. “One thing is certain, he is running away from his duties, he brought this economic distress upon us, he lied to Jordanians juts three months ago telling them Jordan was almost COVID19 free, and now he left Jordanians to face their fate, while he is refusing to face the music.”

Intelligence website JAFAJ states the following:

“While the king’s whereabouts and conditions remain a mystery, Uncle Hassan has been frantically trying to fill the vacuum left by Abdullah’s absence, while drumming up political support.”

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How Does Jordanian Uncertainty Affect Israel

Israel has spent years propping up the Hashemite family in Jordan, to the point where despite King Abdullah’s partnership with Muslim Brotherhood terrorists, Israel still includes the monarchy in its security umbrella.

The thought has always been that despite the King’s two-faced policy, his “Kingdom” was necessary to provide a buffer to first protect against Iraq and then later Iran. Yet, with the recent deal between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain, as well as the growing possibility of Saudi Arabia, Jordan’s Monarchy has become a liability.

Is Saudi Arabia Helping To Depose the “Royal Family?”

There has been a long standing feud between the Hashemite and Saudi royal families dating back to when the Hashemites lived in what is now Saudi Arabia. The British placated the Hashemites by giving them what is today Jordan, leaving the Saudis in charge of the Arabian peninsula. Both dynasties have laid claim to being descended from Muhammed and both Kingdoms claim custodian over major shrines special to Islam. In Jordan’s case they control the management of the Temple Mount, which is within Israel’s security apparatus and sovereignty.

The last point is important and must be taken into account onto why Saudi Arabia sees the need to finally depose the Hashemites once and for all. The Hashemite claim to leadership of the Islamic world is essentially a farce. It resets on the fact that after 1967 the Israeli government was weak and allowed the Waqf to remain in charge. Thats it. Thats the whole claim King Abduallah and his family have.

The Saudis control Mecca and Medina, the two holist sites in Islam. They are a power player in the Middle East and see themselves as the rightful leaders of the Muslim world. Most of the world regards them that way as well.

So what is their interest in toppling the Jordanian Monarchy?

Simply put – peace.

With 80 percent of the Jordanian population made up of Palestinians and these Palestinians needing a State, the Saudis can ink a final deal between a Palestinian Jordan and Israel while signing a peace agreement themselves with the Jewish State. The Saudis would see their family replacing the Waqf as custodians of the Dome of the Rock and Al Aqsa and do away with a wannabe king who finds the Muslim Brotherhood in direct contravention of both American policy and Saudi interests.

So is Jordan’s King now on the way out? If he is, the Saudis are the most probable reason why – and that is a good thing for Israel and peace in the Middle East.

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Jordanians Have Spoken – The Muslim Brotherhood Is Out, Is The King Next?

Israel has always put up with the King of Jordan’s addiction to the Muslim Brotherhood. After all, the King has served the Israeli government’s interest by providing a sort of known quantity on its Eastern border. True, he supports repressive laws in his country, a form of Apartheid against Palestinians living there and he cozies up to anti-semites around the Middle East.

Israel put up with the King’s hatred of the Jewish people and their right to Jerusalem and the Land of Israel, because until this summer Jordan and Egypt represented the only Arab states that were willing to make peace with the Jewish State.

With the UAE and Bahrain signing the Abraham Accord, Jordan’s King no longer has a use for Israel nor the Gulf States. In fact, his long standing pact with the Muslim Brotherhood may in fact be the very reason none of the Sunni Gulf States want to put up with him anymore.

This is why the recent elections in Jordan were such a blow to the King and his Islamicist partners.

Abed AlMaala, deputy secretary general of the Jordanian opposition said: “In Jordan, 3 things are clear. First, the King has placed himself above the Constitution, so he can do what he wants. Second, he appoints both the Prime Minister and all the members of the Upper House of Parliament. Finally, no one can run for office of any type without the king’s permission. Usually this means swearing allegiance and paying a hefty fee (bribe) to be on the ballot. Once on the ballot, it is almost assured that you will win, because it implies that the king has blessed your candidacy.”

For years now, there has been a growing grassroots movement opposing the Hashemite Royal Family. As the average Jordanian has seen a steep decline in his finances and quality of life, the animosity between the masses and the regime has grown.

In order to hold back the citizenry, the King has instituted repressive measures, but now they are in fact beginning to falter as well.

If the King cannot stablize his Kingdom, Israel may see its Eastern neighbor enter the type of chaos it was worried about to its North. Then again, with the UAE and Bahrain, it may be high time that the King is shown the door anyway. It is kind of hard to distract your citizens by blaming their lot on Israel when the UAE and Bahrain, both very successful see things quite differently.

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Instability in Jordan: The impact on Trump’s “Ultimate Deal”

“Jordan sees largest anti-government protests in years” “Al  Jazeera ”, June 4,2018.

 “Jordanians take to the streets to protest austerity measures” CNN, June 4, 2018

“Jordan: thousands protest against IMF-backed austerity measures”,  -“The Guardian , June 3, 2018

These are  merely a small sample of the international media coverage of the  wide spread unrest and protests against new IMF mandated austerity measures, that rocked the kingdom of Jordan  last month. They raised troubling questions as to the long term durability of the country’s incumbent monarchical regime and of the ruling Hashemite dynasty.

Jury still out?

In response to public anger at the austerity measures, King Abdallah, the third member of the Hashemite line to rule Jordan since its inception in 1946, replaced his prime minster and ordered a review of the IMF prescribed reforms.

The jury is still out on whether these steps will placate public anger—and if so for how long. For, with persistently high unemployment (now hovering just under 20%), a national debt reaching 95% , rising inflation (the highest in years), sluggish growth and increasing poverty, Jordan faces daunting domestic socio-economic challenges.

However, beyond its own internal woes, the kingdom has been plagued by severe external problems  induced by the tribulations of others in the turbulent region in which it is located. Thus, the war in Syria–and earlier in Iraq– led to a deluge of refugees into the hapless country—straining its social services to their very limits.

None of this augurs well for future stability—and even if reports that most of the public ire has been directed at the government rather than the king are true—there seems scant room for optimism as to what is to come.

Crucial strategic terrain

One of the possible repercussions of the challenge to the stability of the Hashemite regime, that has received meager attention in the public discourse, is the potential impact that political upheaval in Jordan may have on the feasibility of Donald Trump’s “ultimate deal” Mid-East peace plan which is rumored to be announced soon.

This is particularly pertinent with regard to the practicality and prudence of any territorial concessions this plan may call on Israel to make. After all, the identity of a prospective successor to the current incumbent regime in Amman is of tremendous consequence to Israel.

In the past, I have been at pains to convey, as graphically as possible, the crucial strategic significance of the territory designated for any envisioned Palestinian state—whatever its precise geographical parameters—have for Israel (see for example, here and here).

For the most part, this territory comprises limestone hills, that rise above Israel’s heavily populated coastal plain, and totally dominate the country’s major population centers (where around 80% of the civilian population resides and 80% of Israel’s commercial activity takes place).

Crucial terrain  (Cont.)

The same is true for a large portion of Israel’s vital infrastructure systems and installations (military and civilian) – including many of the country’s military airfields, IDF bases and its only international airport, Ben Gurion; its major seaports and naval bases; much of its principle transportation axes (road and rail); important desalination plants and water conveyance systems; power generating facilities; as well as crucial centers of civilian government and military command.

All of these would be in range of cheap, primitive weapons, readily available to renegade non-state actors (read “radical terror groups”)—of the kind already being used against Israel from territories relinquished by Israel in the past—who could at will disrupt Israel’s ability to maintain any semblance of socio-economic routine in the heart of the country. Clearly, such weapons could be used from any territory to relinquished in the future, with or without the tacit approval of any potential Palestinian “peace partner”

Back to the Trump plan: It is portions of this strategically vital territory Israel may be called on to yield.

Jordan is immediately adjacent to this territory from the east. It is separated from it by only by the Jordan Valley, whose steep slope constitute a formidable topographical barrier between the Hashemite monarchy and the strategic highlands of Judea-Samaria, making the Valley itself a vital military asset.

Back to the “Ultimate Deal”

Clearly then,, for Israel, who controls Jordan  is a matter of critical importance—especially in light of the grim experience of the “Arab Spring”.

Indeed, despite all the grievances Israel may have regarding the repeated displays of diplomatic animosity by the current Jordanian regime, its seems highly implausible that any successor regime is likely to be more amicable. Quite the opposite. Barring some unforeseen development, pundits would generally agree that the most likely candidates to take over the reins of power are extreme Islamist elements, who would be more radical and more inimical to Israel by far.

Accordingly, when weighing any territorial concessions, it matters hugely whether Jordan is governed by a relatively moderate pro-western monarch or by an extremist Jihadist regime—whose territorial reach  extends from the Jordan River to the western fringes of Iraq.

Putting aside for the moment the weighty question of whether any Palestinian interlocutor can be trusted to honor any deal struck with him, it is clear that in the latter case, territorial concessions are likely to be far more perilous than in the former. After all, the territory conceded will be far more accessible to hostile anti-Israel elements and far more susceptible to incendiary incitement from Jihadi elements.

Planning for “the day after”….

For Israel, then, strategic prudence dictates that its working assumption must be that the Hashemite regime has a limited “shelf life”.

The forces of instability in Jordan are beyond Israel’s control, and although it might be able to attenuate them in the margins, it cannot determine their eventual outcome—or who will seize, or sustain, command of the country.

So, whatever advantages might be entailed in the continued rule of Abdallah,

Israel must prepare for “the day after” and tailor its ability to accede any territorial concessions in the Trump peace plan accordingly.

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Why is Trump Pushing Peace when War Seems more Likely?

With Russia supporting  a Syrian-Hezbollah-Iranian attack on rebel positions in Daraa, putting them in striking position of northern Israel and Gaza continuing to heat up, literally, the USA has placed extra emphasis on its alliance with Israel.

Prime Minister Netanyahu said the following in yesterday’s cabinet meeting:

“Over the weekend I had two important meetings with Jared Kushner and Jason Greenblatt. We discussed the diplomatic process and regional issues, and there was special focus on the situation in Gaza. I must say that there was absolute support for our positions and our actions to ensure the security of the State of Israel and its citizens in the area adjacent to the Gaza Strip, which was expressed publicly by the American administration’s envoys. The issue also came up of how it might be possible to resolve the humanitarian problem in Gaza without strengthening Hamas. These matters are clear – first of all how to ensure security and how to prevent a broader flare-up, if it is at all possible. I expressed great appreciation for President Trump, Secretary of State Pompeo and of course for Ambassador Haley for the continual and strong support at the UN, which is very impressive.”

Given the tension rising in the region it is hard to understand why President Trump is still placing an emphasis on Middle East Peace.  The President met with Jordan’s King Hussein yesterday at the White House while Kushner and Greenblatt were speaking with Netanyahu just days earlier. With the proverbial noose tightening around both countries, why is the administration focusing on something that seems so far away?

Jordan is Cornered, Will they Fold?

The administration’s peace plan is done and like the Palestinian Authority has hinted, they are not included.  President Trump’s style is to apply maximum pressure to the side who is most obstinant.  In this case, it is Jordan, or let’s say Jordan’s King.

The Hashemite’s rule over its population, which is 80% Palestinian is tenuous.  In fact he relies almost entirely on US and Israeli security to keep safe. Now the Saudis and Gulf States have decided to prop up Jordan’s economy. With years of playing both sides, President Trump has decided to call the king of Jordan out.

With Iran, Hezbollah, and Syria closing in and the Palestinians in Jordan threatening a real revolt, Trump has the leverage he needs to force Jordan to accept the USA’s peace plan. Of course, that would mean an end to the Palestinian Authority with Jordan taking responsibility for those residents in 40% of Judea and Samaria that identify as Palestinian.

President Trump wants to use the external pressures of Iranian hegemony to force Jordan to accept it real role as “Palestine.”

2 Palestines and One Greater Israel

The plan that has seemingly been accepted within the Trump Administration is the breaking apart of the Oslo Peace narrative of the last 25 years. With Gaza, essentially independent, it has become a defacto Palestine. It has a government and is in charge of its own security and yes, very contiguous. Jordan will take over responsibility for areas A and B in Judea and Samaria and retain their custodial rights over Islamic religious sites in Jerusalem.  Israel will annex area C.

This is the plan that appears to be on the table and this is precisely why Jordan is so nervous about it. King Hussein has refrained from giving any credence that he already rules over Palestine.  Afterall, it is his rule which is artificial and if he agrees to Trump’s plan without any security and economic guarantees he will be risking his own neck with nothing in return.

President’s Trump’s emphasis on pushing a peace plan at this time is part of his larger strategy in using the rising tensions of war to force those leaders to come to the table.

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Is Trump Preparing to Slay the Palestinian Fairy Tale?

With rumors flying that President Trump is readying the release of his long awaiting Israel-Palestinian peace plan, obersvers have noted the non-commitment there still is to the two-state paradigm.  Trump Assistant Victoria Coates can be heard below  insisting that the administration “is not committed to the two-state formul” and explains that it means “whatever the sides want.”




So what is Trump planning to release?

Given the recent events surrounding his decertification of the Iran deal, moving the embassy to Jerusalem, the Gaza riots, as well the Palestinian Authorities response to all of this, it would seem improbable that Trump is banking on the kleptocracy and mafia of Mahmoud Abbas’s Fatah to be able to commit to a peace plan.

With all of the noise in the past week there has been one country conspicuously quiet and that is Jordan. The fact is, Trump’s non-committal to a two-state paradigm appears to be setting the stage for the only real solution to the Israel-Palestinian conundrum and that is the “Jordan is Palestine” model with some tweaks.

The original Palestinian Mandate was made up what is today Israel (both pre 1967 and post 1967) and Jordan.  While the Balfour declaration said that the Jews deserved a homeland in Palestine clearly meaning both sides of the Jordan River, the British ended up splitting the Mandate in two along the Jordan River (although originally it as supposed to be 10 km East of the Jordan River).  The East side became Trans Jordan and was given to the Hashemites in 1922 as a reward for their help during World War One.  The Hashemites were originally from Mecca and were chased out by the House of Saud.

In 1922, Abdullah, the emir and soon to be King of (Trans) Jordan was placed in power over a people not his own and effectively came to rule a majority population of Palestinian Arabs. Jordan today is a shaky monarchy having need to keep the Palestinian population from gaining too much power in order to survive.  This is why the current King Abdullah often uses Israel as a scapegoat to hide his own policies.  This strategy is no longer working.

Trump’s plan appears to be in favor of some sort confederation between the Hashemite Kingdom in Jordan as a Palestinian entity and an autonomous area in most of Areas A and B in Judea and Samaria. Area C would be retained by Israel.   When it comes to Jerusalem the current situation appears to be the best way to make all sides happy.  Jordan would still hold onto its custodial rights over the Muslim and Christian holy sites in the Old City of Jerusalem and Israel would retain security control.

Essentially a combination of the Jordan is Palestine model and Naftali Bennett’s plan seen below. The difference being Jordan would control A and B as noted above, while Bennett leaves it in the hands of the Palestinian Authority.



Why do I think this is the plan?  Because Trump wants a deal and yet he wants a deal that works.  Relying on the Palestinian Authority to sign or even uphod a deal is pointless. Doing so would destablize both Israel and Jordan. By basing his deal on the peace deal already agreed to by Israel and Jordan, Trump would effectively be ending the Palestinian-Israel conflict simply by recognizing history and reality.

So if this plan makes sense, why hasn’t it been tried before? The answer lies with the King of Jordan.  Up until now he has always used the Palestinian issue as a distraction. The King fears that an acceptance of the “Jordan is Palestine” model would effectively doom his regime in a rapid fashion.

The Trump team appears to understand that and is perhaps readying some sort of carrot for the royal family. It remains to be seen what that is