Tag: Erdogan

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SYRIAN CRISIS: Why Did the Syrian Kurds Just Forfeit Shengal to the Syrian Regime?

In a strange turn of events the Syrian regime has been allowed to move in and out of Shengal with permission of the Syrian Kurdish Militia (YPG).  The YPG is being funded and supported by the Trump administration and makes up the majority of the Western backed SDF, which is leading the battle on Raqqa.

Have the Syrian Kurds backstabbed the American coalition? The answer is no.

My sources in Northern Syria give two possible explanations for the seemingly about face of the Syrian Kurdish militias.

The first possibility involves the consolidation of YPG controlled territory  West of the Euphrates.  Where as East of the Euphrates is now undeniably Kurdish, the Western part is still in dispute.  The YPG is making a calculation to build up their holdings using American backing, while regrouping to take the rest.

The second possibility is related to the announcement by the Turkish military has announced a build up of its armed forces in the Kilis triangle right near Shengal.  It is clear Erdogan means to use the triangle area to advance against the Kurdish positions in the area in order to crush the YPG West of the Euphrates. Erdogan recently said as much when he stated the following on his official Twitter account:

“I am calling on the whole world. We will never allow setting up of a [Kurdish] state in northern Syria no matter what the cost may be.”

Given this situation the YPG has had to capitulate to allowing Syrian Regime forces and Hezbollah move freely in and out of the Shengal area.

A further complication is the upcoming G-20 Summit where rumor has it that Trump and Putin will meet to find a way to tamp down the proxy war now underway in Syria.

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Are the Kurds of Syria about to be Cornered by Turkey and Russia?

Enemies make great friends when interests converge.

Turkey has announced the imminent launch of a serious military operation in the Afrin district of Northern Syria to wipe out the Kurdish militias in the area.

Pro Syrian news sources have reported that Turkish backed Free Syrian Army rebels have defected to the Syrian regime army to fight the Kurds. Although it is hard to tell if this is an isolated event, the fact that Turkey inked a deal to buy the Russia S-400 anti-aircraft system shows how the once formidable ememies have come together against a common foe, the US and its Sunni Arab Alliance.

The Kurds have long played both sides, but recently the Trump administration have gone out of its way to court the Syrian Kurdish militas (YPG) and merged them with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).  The combination of moderate Syrian Arabs with elite Kurdish militias have proved pivotal in fighting the Islamic State.

With the coopting of the Northern wing of the FSA, which as opposed to its Southern wing is highly staffed by Turkish elements, the Kurds will have to contend with an Erdogan emboldened by Russian backing and a rebel force that is willing to fight to death to drive the Kurds back from their positions.

Israel and America Must Take a Stand

With the Kurdish army in Syria on the line, Israel and America must take a stand and stop the coming Turkish onlaught from decimating the one fighting force that has proven successful against Jihadist and stablizing for a post Assad Syria. If the Kurds fall in the North it will be another setback for America, Israel, and their Sunni Arab allies. Worst of all it would be just one more of a long list of American let downs in helping the truly indigenous Kurds finally reclaim their ancient homeland.

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Kurdistan Rising as ISIS Falls Apart

No matter whose propaganda one believes on the nature of ISIS’s demise, the wannabe caliphate is falling apart. With its collapse, their capital in Raqqa is under siege by the US backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which is dominated by the powerful YPG Syrian Kurdish militia allied with Syrian Arabs. The YPG’s forces are rapidly taking control of much of Northern Syria and moving to link directly with the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) in Iraq.

This entire scenario is of course the opposite outcome that Turkey wanted when they unleashed ISIS into Syria and Iraq to start with.  Turkey wanted ISIS to create chaos so Turkish forces could go in and not only clean up the radical Islamists, but wipe out the burgeoning Kurdish entity in Iraq.  Not only has the KRG grown in strength, but the Syrian Kurds have become the main power broker in Syria.

With the US funding and training the YPG militias, Turkey has grown increasingly incensed with the Trump administration. Not only will a defacto Kurdish State arise along its Southern border, this state will essentially be backed by the US. Erdogan, the Turkish president has long opposed any Kurdish entity due to the inspiration it will give to the Kurds in Turkey, who form 10% of the Turkish population and a solid block in the country’s Southern regions.

The US appears aware of the inevitability of an independent Kurdistan.

It was reported in the news last week that the Director of the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) Vincent Stewart told senators during a hearing that the question of independence for the Kurdistan Region is to be expected.

“Kurdish independence is on a trajectory where it is probably not if but when. And it will complicate the situation unless there’s an agreement in Baghdad,” Lt. Gen. Stewart said last Tuesday.

As Kurdistan continues to rise to fill the void left by the ravages of ISIS, a new conflict is about to begin.  Turkey will not sit idly by and allow the very people they have oppressed for generations rise up against them.  The Trump administration will have to choose between a pseudo ally in Turkey or rectify past sell outs of the Kurds committed by both George Bushes and Bill Clinton by allowing a free Kurdistan to solidify its control over its ancient homeland.

United Kurdistan (Image source: Ferhates/Wiki)

 

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Trump Administration Working with Putin to Protect the Kurds, is Kurdistan Coming?

Of all the spinoff conflicts connected to the Syrian Civil War and the fight to destory ISIS, the Turkish offensive to wipe out the growing strength of the Kurdish militia in Northern Syria is the most important.

Despite claims to the contrary, Erdogan helped fund ISIS in its early days in order to create enough chaos to further his interests in spreading Turkish power into Northern Iraq and Syria.  He both allowed ISIS fighters to travel from Turkey into Syria and provided the same fighters medical attention when necessary.

When stories of Turkish aid convoys reached the news, Erdogan pivoted and joined the fight to “destroy the group.” Turkey then used their offensives into Syria to achieve three objectives: show the world it is not in collusion with ISIS, stand up to Russia, and most importantly destroy the nascent Kurdistan.

Kurdistan factors heavily into Trump and Putin’s post ISIS Syria and Iraq.  The Kurdish Peshmerga has been the only force that has showed the ability to defeat ISIS. As long as Turkey stayed out of Syria, the Kurdish YPG could continue gaining ground.

The Battle of Manbij Will Prove Pivotal

Manbij is a Kurdish controlled town  just 40km from the Turkish border and this week it has provided the setting for what will no doubt prove to be the beginning of an independent Kurdistan. With Turkey deciding to push out the Kurds who have controlled the town, the Trump administration took the opportunity to team up with Russia in order to thwart Erdogan’s plans.

Bloomberg reports:

A U.S. deployment and a Russian-brokered deal with Syrian forces created buffer zones that headed off any Turkish campaign against the Kurdish forces who hold the town — seen by Washington as key allies against Islamic State and by Turkey as terrorists.

Once again Erdogan’s plans of dominating the Kurds have faltered.  With Russia and the US working together Turkey is forced to deal with the reality that the Kurds are here to stay.

Is Kurdistan Next?

Although rumors of an independent Kurdistan have risen higher in the years since ISIS came to power, the reality of the rumors have never been more actual than now. Kurdistan offers the ability to right an historic injustice by creating a state for the Kurds who have been stateless for centuries.  In fact, it is the Kurds who are indigenous to the area, going as far back as the ancient Medes. An independent Kurdistan would create stability in the Middle East and act as a buffer to the madness of the Arab tribes to the South and Turkish regional aspirations from the North.

Furthermore an independent Kurdistan would quickly become an ally of Israel in its fight against radical Islam.

Will Trump and Putin make it happen?  So far their cooperation in relation to Manbij makes the prospect likely.

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TERROR IN ISTANBUL: Is Turkey Safe Anymore?

Last night’s terror attack at an Istanbul night club is only the latest terror attack against Turkey. With 35 dead from the attack on New Years eve, the 45 killed in Ataturk airport last month, and a failed coup, it has become apparent that Turkey is increasingly growing unstable. Erdogan would like us to believe he has everything under control, but the pressures growing against his rule from within as well as pressures pushing against him from Russia and infuriated NATO members, his rule is growing far more unstable than previously believed.

In the Istanbul attack, CNN Turk reported the two attackers were dressed in Santa costumes. Some witnesses claimed they were speaking Arabic (not Turkish).

“Unfortunately, at least 35 of our citizens lost their lives. One was a police officer. Forty people are receiving treatment in hospitals,” Istanbul governor Vasip Sahin told reporters, according to the AFP news agency. “What happened today is a terror attack.”

Playing with ISIS is Like Playing with Fire

With Turkey working with Russia to shut down the Syrian war, ISIS (its once loyal proxy) is now turning on Erdogan and his government.  When Erdogan opened the flood gates into northern Syria for ISIS to cross in order to destabilize the country, he never imagined Russia coming into the war.  The plan was always for Erdogan to insert Turkey into Syria and Iraq as the great stabilizer.  He won this role from Obama and NATO.

The Russian intervention has caused Turkey to pull back its support of ISIS and other Jihadist groups and make peace with Putin.  This of course makes Erdogan into an apostate as far as ISIS is concerned and makes anything in Turkey a target for Jihadists.

Kurdish Rebellion in the Works

Russia has a very real interest in making sure Erdogan stays on the defensive.  One gives time for Syria to finish reasserting its sovereignty throughout its country and second Turkey has less reason to interfere with Russian aspirations in the region, including northern Iraq and the eastern Mediterranean.  Putin always works in two spheres of influence.  One is overt, like we saw in Crimea and Syria.  The other is a page ripped from the KGB cold War playbook and that is covertly funding and inspiring revolution.  This we see in the Donbass region of the Ukraine.  We are about to see it in southern Turkey, which has a solid Kurdish population itching for freedom.

Russia’s interests in the region intersect with Kurdish aspirations.  It’s only a matter of time until Turkey feels these aspirations in a far more serious way.

Whether its ISIS, Russia, or Kurdish Independence, Erdogan’s Turkey is a country which is no longer safe or secure.

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BREAKING NEWS: Twin Blasts Rock Istanbul, Killing at Least 15

Istanbul was rocked Saturday night by twin explosions after a soccer match.  The Explosions killed at least 15 and wounded many others.

Video below shows the moment of the exlosions.

“It was like hell. The flames went all the way up to the sky. I was drinking tea at the cafe next to the mosque,” Omer Yilmiz, who was working at the Dolmabahce mosque near the stadium, told Reuters. “People ducked under the tables, women began crying. Soccer fans drinking tea at the cafe sought shelter, it was horrible.” 

Although it is too early to say who the terrorists are, Erdogan will use the attack to claim more centralized power while blaming shadowy Kurdish groups.  In this case the PKK could be behind it as the blasts seemed to intentionally target security forces after fans had left the soccer stadium two hours earlier.

As Erdogan goes after more and more power, Kurdish groups are under pressure to counteract as he has made clear his intention to clamp down on Turkey’s 10 million strong Kurdish populace. Erdogan is paranoid that the Kurds who are a majority in certain areas of Turkey have historical rights to much of today’s south-eastern areas of the country.

With the KRG (Kurdish Regional Government) in northern Iraq gaining state like qualities, Erdogan is hard pressed to stay strong against Kurdish groups in Turkey.

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Erdogan Wants Jerusalem…and Syria Too

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, president of Turkey has decided he wants Jerusalem and while he’s at it Syria belongs to him also.  Erdogan seemed to throw rapprochement with Israel out the window today when he stated “it is the common duty of all Muslims to embrace the Palestinian cause and protect Jerusalem.” He made the comments at the first Inter-Parliamentary Jerusalem Platform Symposium in Istanbul.

In the same speech Erdogan spoke about Syria:

“In my estimation, nearly 1 million people have died in Syria. These deaths are still continuing without exception for children, women and men. Where is the United Nations? What is it doing? Is it in Iraq? No. We preached patience but could not endure in the end and had to enter Syria together with the Free Syrian Army [FSA].”

“Why did we enter? We do not have an eye on Syrian soil. The issue is to provide lands to their real owners. That is to say we are there for the establishment of justice. We entered there to end the rule of the tyrant al-Assad who terrorizes with state terror. [We didn’t enter] for any other reason,” Erdogan said.

Erdogan like any other supporter of radical Islam believes in divine mandate on each muslim to conquer lands previously held by the caliphate.  For Erdogan it isn’t the caliphate, but rather the sultanate that has the divine power to institute rulership.

What is Erdogan Doing?

Erdogan is laying the groundwork for the passage of a constitutional amendment that gives him power until 2029. In order to pass the amendment  he needs the street behind him.  By showing off his radical Islamic bonafides he makes sure the street stays with him.  Furthermore he is giving context to his brutal attacks on the Kurds, both in Syria and Iraq.

For Erdogan, his broad use of terrorism is often times used to attack Kurds. For example, RT reports: “in October Turkey’s air forces killed between 160 and 200 fighters of the Kurdish YPG militia group in 26 airstrikes conducted in just one night.”

Essentially, the chaos in Syria has come to help Turkey regain a regional role in the Middle East in a way that is far more direct than it used to have. It has gained leverage against the EU and earned the respect of major powers like China.

In just a few months after Russia had Erdogan cornered and a failed coup attempt, Turkey is stronger than every and aiming to control both Northern Iraq and the Levant.

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Can Anyone Stop Erdogan From Becoming Turkey’s Sultan?

Well we all knew it had to get to this point.  Turkey’s wanna be sultan Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has put forth a wide ranging bill backed by conservatives in Turkey’s parliament that would centralize power behind the office of president even more.  If the measure passes in the coming months it will head to a national referendum in order to amend the constitution. In the proposed amendment, Erdogan will be able to stay in power until 2029 making him a defacto dictator or in his parlance sultan.

ISIS is Not Going Anywhere

Erdogan has been identified as one of the main backers of ISIS.  He supplied them multiple avenues to smuggle weapons and fighters in Iraq and Syria and he and his family bought oil directly from ISIS.  All of this was a strategy that created chaos with the direct purpose of giving Turkey a reason to expand its holding in these areas.  Only Turkey has the resources and is in proximity to be able to stabilize the area. This is why Turkey is in northern Syria and Mosul.

Tensions with Israel Will Continue to be Strained

While its true Erdogan signed off on the rapprochement deal with Israel, an emboldened Erdogan will see things very differently. Expect the relationship to contnue to be rocky between Israel and Turkey as long as Erdogan is at the helm.  Of course the military and business sector may step in and force Erdogan to play nice with Israel’s government, but there is no guarantee they will have the leverage they need.

The Kurdish Uprising is Guaranteed

If the constitution is amended the 10 million Kurds inside Turkey will have no other recourse than to rebel.  After all it is the Turks that arrived late on the scene from the east, occupying what has been Kurdish land for thousands of years.  With Russian backing below the radar, the Kurds are set to make the new sultan’s life a living hell.

With all of the above on the line, it is no surprise why Erdogan demands changes to the UN.

“There are so many countries. There are five permanent members of the Security Council and one of those five permanent members can make a decision that binds the rest of the world. That is not fair, that is not just,” Erdogan said. “To achieve international peace and security, it’s going to be very difficult, and perhaps fail if the United Nations is not restructured”

Perhaps that is the only thing Israel and Turkey see eye to eye on.

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Turkish Tanks Roll into Al-Rai Expanding Operation Euphrates Shield

On Saturday more Turkish tanks crossed the Syrian border into the Syrian rebel-controlled town of al-Rai in order to support the new operation Euphrates Shield

Al-Rai is about 55 kilometers west of Jarablus, and part of a 90-kilometer strip near the Turkish border that Erdogan’s government says it is clearing of jihadis while making sure the YPG or Syrian Kurdish Army keeps away.

The Turkish backed rebels buoyed by the Turkish tanks spread out and then seized villages to the east and the south of al-Rai.

“They took several villages, about eight villages. At first they took two and withdrew from them, but then reinforcements came and there was an advance,” Zakaria Malahifji of the Aleppo-based Fastaqim group said.

While Ankara claims the The Turkish-backed operation’s goal is to put pressure on ISIS, most observers believe that Turkey’s real goal is to block the YPG from expanding and forming a formidable Kurdish state.

While Turkey views the Kurdish Army as a terrorist organization, NATO as a whole sees the group as the vanguard of their anti-ISIS strategy.  This conflict of interest has caused stress between NATO and Turkey.

At the G20 summit Erdogan  spelled out his view of the YPG to China’s CCTV:

“There is no good terrorist. All terrorists are bad. All organizations involved in terrorism are cursed. This is how we see things and how we put up our struggle.”

For Erdogan, the label of terrorist is a ruse to allow for a non-measured response to his Kurdish foes. Loosely applied, the Turkish military can be unleashed to finish them off.

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BREAKING NEWS: Turkey Driving Hard Against Kurds West of the Euphrates

If it is possible to believe Erdogan, his foray into Syria was for the purpose of driving ISIS from Jarablus, the only piece of land the Syrian Kurds did not control. Erdogan’s forces were of such mass that Turkey was accused of invading Syria.  ISIS quickly melted away and the Turkish military set its sights on the true “nemesis” to the Turkish homeland YPG or the Kurdish army in Syria.  

One thing has become clear.  Erdogan’s actions have put NATO in a very uncomfortable spot.  On one hand they have backed the Syrian Kurds as their vanguard attack force against ISIS and on the other they have the second largest NATO force in Turkey openly trying to wipe them out through a fake anti-ISIS operation.

Turkey has long maintained that a contiguous Kurdish state along its border running from the Mediterranean to Iran was an existential threat.  In pushing the Kurds back over the Euphrates they are risking the NATO coalition’s strategy against ISIS.  The Euphrates must be Washington’s red line.  If Turkey is allowed to press on, the Kurds will be forced to pivot elsewhere and not only NATO will lose a valuable indigenous ally, Israel will have squandered years of covert training and arms deals.