Tag: Erdogan

Posted on

Turkey Coup: The Coming NATO Civil War

As the counter coup continues to rage, Erdogan is gaining more and more power by the day.  The dream of a resurgent Ottoman Empire is not just a fantasy anymore.  Whether the coup was a false flag event or a poorly executed attempt orchestrated by Fetullah Gulen, Erdogan’s nemesis, the counter coup is already changing the dynamic of Turkey and its relationship with NATO.

“The President pledged any needed assistance to the Turkish government as they conduct an investigation to determine exactly what happened,” Josh Earnest, White House spokesman told reporters.

Although the statement appears to be positive, the following caveat on the investigation holds within it a powerful message and hint to where things will go.  Earnest continued with the following: “[Obama] believes that investigation should be conducted consistent with the democratic principles that are enshrined in Turkey’s constitution.”

What is clear, is that Erdogan is ignoring Turkey’s constitution.  He has arrested and purged thousands.  He has shut down opposition media and is on his way to becoming the 21st century sultan redux.  

The Obama administration knows this.  Despite Obama’s early bromance with Erdogan, he and his advisors have grown to despise his continued power grabs and meddling in the Middle East.  The challenge for the West is that Turkey is no pushover, they have the second largest military in NATO, second only to the USA.  

Erdogan has been using NATO as cover throughout his tenure, knowing that eventually he would either leave or be jettisoned out of the alliance.  The problem is that NATO needs Turkey far more than Turkey need NATO right now.  NATO membership was always a moderating force on Turkey’s actions.  Whether or not Turkey formally leaves, from here on out Erdogan will not take NATO membership into consideration as he moves to rebuild the lost Ottoman empire.  At its peak it reached from Greece to Iraq. Erdogan won’t get it all back, but he will try to uncover areas that are weak and if successful he will push on.

Ottoman Empire
Boundaries of the Ottoman Empire in 1795

At one point and time NATO will have to stop their east most neighbor member.  The conflict will be fought through economics and proxies, but it will be fought.  Afterall, Erdogan is a believer and is determined to see his dreams through. Ironically the schism in NATO reminds one of the last time Europe split into two, between the Western and Roman Empires.  History repeats itself, sometimes in the most brutal ways.

 

Posted on

Is Washington Finally Getting Fed Up With Turkey?

What started out like a budding relationship between Obama and Erdogan, has now gone way beyond simple agitation.  The coup in Turkey may have put the final nail in the coffin for what was supposed to be an American backed drive to rule the Middle East.

Early in Obama’s tenure, he believed that Turkey could become the lynchpin to US policy in the region.  That was 7.5 years ago.  Today’s relation is fraying at the seams and with months to go before Obama’s departure, the tightening of Erdogan’s rule following the “coup” may push it over the cliff.

Erdogan has essentially used the failed coup to purge the government and country of non-loyal forces.  Although the USA supports a stable and strong Turkey, Erdogan using it as leverage to strike back at opponents is worrisome to the Obama administration. “We will certainly support bringing the perpetrators of the coup to justice, but we also caution against a reach that goes well beyond that,” Secretary of State John Kerry said on Monday. “We also firmly urge the government of Turkey to maintain calm and stability throughout the country, and we also urge the government of Turkey to uphold higher standards of respect for the nation’s democratic institutions and the rule of law.”

With Turkey getting the cold shoulder from the United States and of course near isolation by Russia, this puts it in a very difficult position with little or no wiggle room.  This is what makes Bibi’s continued acceptance of the Israel Turkish reconciliation deal so strange. Why would Israel want to throw Erdogan a life vest?

“Israel and Turkey recently agreed on a reconciliation process between them. We assume that this process will continue without any connection to the dramatic events in Turkey over the weekend.” Bibi Netanyahu said yesterday.

The question for Israel is, how long will it wait to jump onboard the anti-Erdogan bandwagon? Afterall, if Obama and Putin can agree on the need to corner Erdogan, it pays to pivot alongside them rather than being left the only one still committed to some irrelevant deal.

 

Posted on

Can Bibi Netanyahu and Vladamir Putin Save Kurdistan from the new Sultan of Turkey?

Bibi Netanyahu made waves last year when he came out in support of an independent Kurdistan. It really should not have been a surprise to observers as Israel has been a covert supporter of the Kurdish independence movement since its early days. Not only does Israel’s military supply the Peshmerga with weapons and training, the government has been buying Kurdish oil through back channels.

All of this has worked well for both sides as the Kurds have needed the training and money and Israel has needed a reliable partner on the ground to push back on ISIS, block Iran, and cause problems for Erdogan.  Now that Erdogan has used the coup, staged or real to complete his takeover of Turkish democratic institutions, the question for observers is which domestic constituent is his first target?

 

None of this should be a surprise.  Erdogan has scapegoated the Kurds for years.  True there are militant factions who would like to gain independence (rightfully so) but remember there are 10 million Kurds in Turkey alone and they are the majority in some Southern regions.  Erdogan will  attempt to settle the score and cement his rule by wiping the Kurdish people off the map. Turkey has done this before, over 100 years ago by killing millions of Armenians.

 

There are really only two leaders that can throw a monkey wrench in Erdogan’s plans: Bibi Netanyahu and Vladimir Putin.  Both of these leaders have not only warmed to each other, but have negative experiences with Erdogan.  Both of them were willing to bury the hatchet before the weekend for the sake of economics and stability, but dealing with a newly minted “Sultan” should change their minds.  With the Kurds being a moderating force and the only group proven successfully rule their region within the former Iraq and Syria, it is in both Putin and Netanyahu’s interests to stop Erdogan in his tracks.

 

How Can they Do This?

The first thing they can do is freeze rapprochement with Turkey. This may not work by itself, but it will send a message.  Next they need to arm the Kurds in Northern Iraq and Syria with modern weapons and provide air cover in case Turkey decides to attack them in those areas.  Lastly, they need to begin to provide covert assistance to Kurdish groups to defend themselves from Turkey’s now authoritarian ruler.

If Putin and Netanyahu do this, they will be credited in preventing a massive genocide and redrawing the map of the Middle East for the foreseeable future.

Posted on

Kurdistan Rising from the Chaos of War

First the Background

The Kurds, who have been itching for a sovereign state of their own, now find themselves in the unenviable position of being the chief agitators to Erdogan’s Turkey.  In the beginning of the turmoil in the Middle East Erdogan made a deal with the devil, ISIS.  The thought there was that Erdogan would be able to create a fundamentalist Sunni caliphate as a stop gap measure against the growing Iranian hegemony in the region.  Furthermore, the new caliphate would keep his arch enemies the Kurds in check.

Erdogan went about doing this by being the main corridor for ISIS bound fighters as well as the middle man for ISIS oil.  Of course Erdogan sold Kurdish oil on top of that. The Kurdish oil kept the Kurdish leadership in Northern Iraq beholden to Ankara.  This strategy is still in play, however Russia’s increasing intervention and Syria’s new found might against its Western backed foes has put a serious wrinkle in Turkey’s strategy.

Two Autonomous Kurdish Regions Are Too Many for Erdogan

As long as the Kurds relegated themselves to an autonomous province in Northern Iraq, Erdogan and Turkey’s military felt they had strategic strength.  Russia’s arming of the Syrian Kurdish Militia otherwise known as the YPG has alarmed Turkey.  Although the Kurdish population in Syria amounts to a small 1.6 million, the territory it has gained among the chaos has been significant.

The border between the Syrian Kurdish region and Iraqi Kurdish region, which has 6.6 million Kurds  has melted away, effectively giving the Kurds one long autonomous area stretching along the Southern border of Turkey.  With Turkey’s 15 million strong Kurdish population just to the North, Turkey is rapidly heading for destabilization.

After the Kurdish bombing in Ankara, the Turkish Prime Minister Davutoğlu said:

“We collected intelligence all night,” Davutoğlu told reporters in Ankara. “The perpetrators have been fully identified. The attack was carried out by YPG member Salih Necer, who came in from Syria.”

Of course the YPG has denied involvement.  Truth matters not though to Ankara, who needs some reason to put a stop to the de facto creation of a Kurdish republic to the South and perhaps even within Turkey.  The fear is compounded even more by Russia’s backing for Kurdish military operations.

If Turkey uses the pretense to attack Syria in order to push back Kurdish expansion, the die will be cast for an intense explosion in war activity throughout the Middle East.  The Kurds are seen by even America as in the right in relation to Turkey.  Erdogan may feel he has no choice, but his decision may end up taking him down one way or the other.

Posted on

Is the Russian Turkish War About to Start?

After weeks of staying out of the news, Turkey has finally found a way back into the international headlines. Speculation is rising that Turkey is planning to possibly send troops into Syria.  TASS reports, “Turkey has denied the Russian Federation an observation flight over its territory that was to be held within the framework of the Open Skies Treaty, a senior Russian Defense Ministry official said Wednesday.”

Two possibilities lie behind the Turkish move. Either, Turkey is really preparing a ground invasion of Northern Syria in order to protect their Turkmen allies or they want to deny Moscow the ability to see the relationship between Turkish forces and ISIS.

“The route supposed, among other things, observation of areas adjacent to the Syrian border and airfields where NATO aircraft are concentrated. But after the arrival of the Russian mission in Turkey and the announcement of the planned route of the observation flight, the Turkish military denied the opportunity to conduct it citing an instruction from Turkey’s Foreign Ministry,” said Sergey Ryzhkov, chief of the ministry’s department for control of implementation of treaties.

“In this way, as a result of violations of the requirements of the Treaty and unconstructive actions on the part of Turkey, a dangerous precedent was created of an uncontrolled military activity of an Open Skies Treaty member state,” Ryzhkov said.

Although a few months ago a ground invasion of Turkish forces into Syria seemed outrageous, now no one seems to be laughing.  Erdogan is cornered.  Russia doesn’t sell gas to Turkey and Erdogan cannot seem to reach  a final rapprochement with Israel. Without affordable energy and increasing isolation to the North, North East, and the South, Erdogan must make a move. A move South will spark a war.  A Russian Turkish war could spiral out of control and draw in most of the region if not other world powers.

Erdogan Toprak, opposition member in Turkey has lent wait to the rising possibility that Turkey would send troops over the border. “The presence Hulusi Akar, Chief of the General Staff of the Turkish Armed Forces, among the people accompanying Davutoglu to Riyadh, as well as a group photograph featuring Akar posing together with a top Saudi official while wearing army fatigues and boots, sends a clear message: the Turkish Armed Forces are ready to take the lead role in a possible ground military action in Syria,” notes Toprak.

Essentially, the war between the Sunni’s and Shiites is about to be raised a few notches.

What Should Israel Do?

Stay out of it.  There are no good sides in this war.  Israel would be wise in keeping neutral, because there is no one that would be preferable. In a sense, Israel is watching two boxers go add it for 10 rounds, only to both fall to the floor. By staying out of the conflict, Israel can pick up the pieces after the conflict is finished.

 

Posted on

OPEN THE DOOR AND LET JUSTICE IN

Knock, knock! Who’s there? Erdogan is knocking on Israel’s door. Shock! Surprise!! NOT! Turkey, with debacle after debacle now wants to restore relations with Israel. Oh really? After Erdogan’s military shot down a Russian jet, within hours Putin announced his first move, economic sanctions on Turkey, saying ‘We will not buy from you, rather we will buy from Israel.’

Stab and twist.

With Putin’s strong arm in Syria, the Russian military is coming out successful in efforts to obliterate ISIS/Daesh and frankly, Turkey is in the roost. Not only has Turkey been accused of aiding and financing ISIS/Daesh, who is one of the most evil & vile force in the world today, but Turkey is widely known to be connected to our enemy, Hamas. This factor must, absolutely be dealt with. Putin in a smart political move met with Netanyahu to show Erdogan and whoever else, this alliance is fortified. Now Erdogan wants to restore relations with Israel.

By the year’s end, the Israeli government will decide how to proceed with Turkey. What will the strategy be? Flotilla payoff? Unilateral or bilateral demands? Anything? BUT WAIT! Another door has been knocking in Israel for years!! Behind it the blood of over a millions Armenians is crying out to NOT BE forgotten. Israel needs jump on this opportune time and recognize the Armenian Genocide with no delay.

Why now? Clearly, Israel has the upper hand. What do we have to lose? Erdogan needs Israel…. Our way or the highway. And I boldly suggest they stipulate Turkey to finally come out and confess their dirty deed. Israel, in particular, the Holocaust people needed to make this announcement many years ago, but to our shame because of politics, i.e. Turkish & Azerbaijani relations we have NOT. Try to put yourself in their shoes. Grounds of politics LOCKED, on grounds of compassion UNLOCKED with a welcome mat. In recent months, the news over and over again exposed how the Grand Mufti who spurred on the king of the Nazis to burn the Jews was also a part of the Armenian Genocide, and when he became the Grand Mufti, it was he who went to Hitler and helped plot against the Jewish people. Do you see the connection? Of course then there’s the famous quote when Hitler said, ‘Who remembers what happen to the Armenians.’

It is clear that we are connected in more ways than one, with Azerbajian/Nagorno-Karabagh conflict (an Armenian populated region given by the soviets to the modern day Azeris) and the Israeli/’Palestinian’ conflict. Both a diaspora people who recently obtained a country again, respectively. And here we are again, shall we stand idly by?? With the outreach of Armenians visiting and building relations with Israel, Armenia has proven to be a good ally even though, through ignorance, we are on Azerbaijan’s arms vendor list.

Armenia is a thriving, ambitious young country whose numbers would have been exponentially greater had not their Genocide like for us, had our Holocaust not happened. Our histories’ similar, our plights’ alike and our conflicts unresolved… There have been many advocates: Rivlin, pre-presidential days was a strong proponent for the recognition of the Armenian Genocide, Edelstein has gone before the Knesset earlier this year, Israeli Greek Orthodox priest Naddaf is outspoken for this cause, in Nov Sassounian, an American Armenian editor brought forth a compassionate, logical plea, of course for years the Israeli Armenian Community has attempted to reach ear that will not hear, last week a delegation from Armenian visited Israel and finally we the people of Israel, stand up and ask for justice. Israel must put politics aside once and for all. Let us stand with the Armenian people whose motto is Never Forget and say Never Again our motto. The time is now to open the door and recognize the Armenian Genocide.

I implore the Israel government to take this opportunity and make history. Stop being embarrassed of what we haven’t done and make a wrong right and also to stipulate to Turkey in their time of desperation, that Turkey needs to confess what the Ottoman Empire committed against the Armenians. Let’s take it all the way…. Answer the door let the screaming blood of the dead be put to rest. The doors are knocking…. open them both and restore the dignity of the dead and demand from Turkey justice as we are a light to the nations. Why? Because righteousness and wisdom is our path…

Posted on

Israel Behind the News [Dec 22, 2015]

Iran warns Turkey: Don’t renew ties with Israel

In the Islamic world deals with Israel are akin to making deals with the Satan.  Iran is trying to paint Turkey as a collaborator with Israel and anti-Islamic. Turkey may or may not follow through with the gas deal, but Iran is not a consideration to them, energy is.

Nasrallah says Hezbollah will Retaliate for Samir Kuntar’s Death

Nasrallah may opt for confrontation against Israel in the form of infiltrating the North  His operative capabilities have been smashed by ISIS and while it is true that he possesses lots of missiles direct conflict will bring him ruin.

Iran pulling Revolutionary Guards out of Syria

The real story behind this is the strategic leverage Iran loses with Russia.  Russia wanted to use Iran as its ground army, without it, Iran has little value for Russia other than keeping quiet.

 

Posted on

Israel Behind the Headlines [Dec 20, 2015]

Nothing Changes – Erdogan Meets Mashaal

That didn’t take long. Erdogan wants to get his last meeting in with Hamas before the Israeli gas lifeline he is signing onto prohibits him from meeting with Hamas officials. He can always break that, but then he would be finished as there would be no one else to supply energy to his country.  One has to wonder if he still thinks he will one day become the Sultan.  As things stand he seems more like a street beggar.

Israeli-Chinese Innovation Relationship Takes a Whole new Level

Look for the cross cultural and technology based relationship to continue to grow between China and Israel.  China has noted the inspiration they get from Israel as well as profound respect for a fellow ancient culture. Does this mean Israel can rely on China to change their voting pattern in the UN?  Not yet, but the future may bring lots of changes as the relationship grows.

Synagogues demand government provide them security guards

Will the government provide security guards to Synagogues?  If this happens the impression that Jews are not safe to go to pray even in a Jewish State will not be lost on the Muslim Jihadist terror squads and their millions of supporters.  Security guards are great, but they still do not change the equation.

Build Jerusalem Fund Banner

 

Posted on

I See No Big Difference, Do You?

As an Armenian, whose ancestors were victims of the Armenian genocide, as a daughter of a DP (displaced person) whose father’s whole family were in forced labor camps in Stuttgart, Germany during World War II  – the topic of the behavior of the Ottoman Empire vs the modern-day Turkish regime actions are always in the back my mind and any Armenian’s mind.  

In Jan 2007, when Turkish born Armenian journalist Hrant Dink (January 2007) gets assassinated for speaking out and telling the truth…I see no big difference, do you?

More recently in October 2015, Turkish Mayor Abdullah Demirbas of the municipality of Sur in Diyarbakir, a brave man standing up for the minorities in Turkey including Armenians, has been harassed, threatened, imprisoned and became deathly ill for speaking out against injustices done to minorities (us) in Turkey, I see no big difference, do you? 

When reflecting on the recent bombing in Ankara where Kurds and minorities were rallying for their voices to be heard…. Erdogan alluded to ISIS being involved, when now we know Turkey is a backer of ISIS….I see no big difference, do you? 

Also, reading of the potential idea that Erdogan’s daughter and son being involved with ISIS and of course many other articles connecting Turkey directly to ISIS makes one ask: I see no big difference, do you? 

What is the difference between today’s Turkish regime and the Ottoman Empire?  International oversight? Turkey is a part of international coalition today so they are held accountable for their actions.  Really?  Is there any true scrutiny… except when it comes to Israel and the double standard automatically applied to every action or non-action which of most are clearly accusations & clearly distortions of the ‘campaign of young Arab muslim terror’ happening daily.

Turkey seems to autonomously make moves having the world in an unspoken grip.  Who can do what to them? Erdogan the visionary and his vision seem to be far reaching into the future with maybe a desire to become an empire again?  Can it be?  

Now, with the grave error of striking down Putin’s plane, the world sits back and watches as the first step of an economical withdrawal is made by Russia… adding insult to injury, we won’t buy from you WE WILL BUY FROM ISRAEL!!  Let’s just sit back and see what other front will be doused in Putin’s 2nd plan of retaliation attack on Turkey.  Erdogan, sit down.  Autonomous, are you??  World, I hope to see a difference, don’t you?