Category: Regional Analysis

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The Great Unwinding Has Begun

[dropcap]D[/dropcap]espite the US Treasury’s best market manipulation, which may or may not save US Stocks for the day, the inevitable stomach turning feeling that the World is once again out of control is unmistakably in the air. There has been a subtle feeling that this could be the reality for months now and as Iran’s oil came into the global market, crude’s collapse has been assured. With oil down below $27 a barrel, the market rout that has been underway since the first of January will assuredly continue.

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Courtesy Bloomberg

In all honesty, the global recovery since 2008 has not really been a recovery.  Propped up by cheap credit and a farce of a fracking and shale industry as well the emerging markets, which have been more fictional than fact, the economy should have given way a long time ago.  Humans like to live in a bubble. So long as there has been available credit the false economy could continue lying.

Keynesian Economics is Bringing Everything Else Down

The game that has been played by the central bankers for the last few decades has reached the end.  Over manipulation of the markets which has flowed from the statist policies rooted in Keynesian Economics has warped the global economy.  This unraveling is picking up pace and threatens to derail the global economy.

Listen to the Podcast Below

Keynesian Economics never made much sense. The idea that central banks could increase deficit spending to ensure economic growth in times of stagnation would eventually be over used. The only surprise is that is has taken this long for a real decoupling to begin.

From Economic Collapse to War

One thing is certain. When global economic stresses increase to an unacceptable level, geopolitical friction begin to stir. Russia cannot sustain itself with oil as low as it is.  Neither can the Arab nations or Iran.

With no reason to keep the guns holstered expect Russia and Iran to be on the move. After all, the best way to raise oil prices is war. If there is war then why not make the most of it and restore some lost territory in Ukraine and other areas Mother Russia once had.

For Israel’s part, the economic level of most of its citizens have always been borderline poverty.  If the tech bubble bursts the government will have to instill emergency measure.  Of course, Israel has always functioned on a different wavelength and there is no reason to assume it won’t do so this time as well. Of course if there is real war, all bets are off.

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From Saudi Chaos to Iranian Stability

Sometimes Internet rumors do in fact exhibit a modicum of truth. The Internet has been filled with conspiracy theories on the sudden rise of ISIS.  Connecting this to Benghazi and the hidden hand of the USA behind it all.

A now declassified Department of Defense document seen here, proves that the government had an awareness that ISIS would directly develop from aiding Jihadist against Assad.  Given that even the Obama administration isn’t naive enough to think these rebels would remain on a tight leash, the question must be asked: why would the administration be dumb enough to repeat the same policy that gave birth to Osama Bin Laden and Al Qaida?

Block Iran

Most conventional thinking revolves around the idea that ISIS or at least its predecessor was funded or allowed to metastasize as a block towards Iran’s advancement across the Middle East to the Mediterranean. It would seem that America’s funding of the various groups that would form ISIS is proof enough. Besides that, America has taken a very lax approach to bombing the group. The fact that Saudi Arabia in concert with the West has supported Jihadists against Assad seems to complete the puzzle.

But what happens if we are actually wrong about this? What happens if the plot is far more thick than we think? What happens if funding ISIS is about a whole new Middle East and the Obama administration has crafted all of this for some much larger purpose?

Chaos Leads to Order…Always

The theory of spontaneous order is an idea whose roots date back over 2,000 years ago.  The theory is based on the idea that reality as we know it strives for order.  This is why in seemingly chaotic situations some sort of order always prevails.  

Obama and Kerry had to know that nothing good would come out of funding Jihadists.  Nothing that is, unless they wanted the chaos that has now been unleashed on the Middle East.  The forces are ripe for a new order and if one compares the speed of the rapprochement between Washington and Tehran it is no coincidence it has occurred over the backdrop of this growing chaos.

By creating the chaos or at least allowing it to mutate into a real enough threat, rapprochement with Iran can be peddled as a necessity. This is exactly why there has been a full court press on showing Iran as a truly amicable partner as we noted here. Strategically speaking the Obama administration has always seen Iran as the only country that could truly bring stability to the Middle East.  Obama himself was never really enamored by the aging Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and as a revolutionary he felt his Shiite friends could be counted on as new strategic asset.

We’ve Been Tricked

No two countries have felt more slighted than Obama’s rapprochement than Israel or Saudi Arabia. Not only have the Sunni states been put into a precarious position, but their resources have been used to fight a war that has led to the raison d’etre itself for the USA to basically switch sides.  

For Israel, there is perhaps nothing better than the solitary realization that we have nothing else to rely on than the Almighty himself.

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Hezbollah Gets a Raise

As I sit here writing this article a monster is being let out of the cage.  All the talk of “peace in our time” too as well as changing strategic partnerships are just euphemisms for politicians who have given the regime in Iran what it needs to go from being an uninfluential terrorist sponsoring state to already on its way to becoming a regional superpower.

Already an emboldened Iran is forcing the hand of the Gulf States to decide between Saudi Arabia and themselves.  It has made it clear that it will pour tons of money that is being unlocked as part of the agreement into its army and terrorist entities.

The idea that Iran needs a nuclear weapon to wipe out Israel is a farce. It does not need nukes nor an ICBM for that.  These are things it needs to attack Europe and America. This what made the Iran Nuclear Deal so ridiculous.  It’s as if the Western powers really believed that Iran just wanted to kill Jews, something none of them really took issue with.

Nasrallah is Coming for Jerusalem

Iran’s main weapon against Israel is Hezbollah.  With Hezbollah’s hundreds of thousands of missiles covering most of Israel, Iran does not need a nuke to knock out Israel’s vital locations. Add to that Russia’s coverage of the Levant under the S-400 system, which makes a surprise attack by Israel against Hezbollah installations daunting to say the least. Hezbollah has also been receiving Russian weapons in its fight against the Syrian rebels.

With Nasrallah to Israel’s North, it is no wonder Bibi is trying his best to be on good terms with Putin.  Ultimately speaking, the USA and Europe have little or no leverage on Iran, but Russia is different and so Bibi’s strategy is to woo the newest Tsar and hope that in time another solution arises.

Iran Unleashed

Now that the nuclear deal is a done and money is flowing into Iran, the stakes in the Middle East have risen.  Iran’s regime is revolutionary in nature.  Revolutionaries do not rest until the revolution is complete. For Iran it is simple. When the Mahdi comes the Revolution is done.  For Iran, their first target is Saudi Arabia and the next is Europe and the USA.  Israel, is of course a target, but one that Iran believes will and can be taken care of fairly easily.

The Mahdi or the hidden Imam will only come when the world reaches a state of chaos. The Western governments and Russia have seen no harm in enabling one of the most dangerous regimes in the History of the World. Of course their rationale seems unchanged from their counterparts over 70 years ago in relation to Hitler.  Then Hitler was “only” after the Jews.  Chamberlain and company saw no problem with letting a bunch of unwanted Jews die to avert war.  Well, war came anyway and with it, the near destruction of the world.

This time, the global elite have made a similar judgement. War is not far off, it is moments away.

Iran Can be Stopped

The irony of Iran’s re entry into global markets is that crude oil prices stand between 29 to 31 dollars per barrel. That is far lower than needed to sustain the Iranian economy. With their oil back into global circulation the price will plummet further.  This means the Ayatollahs cannot wait to pounce on their neighbors, but must move quickly before their economy implodes completely.

This makes Iran extremely dangerous in the short term with the potential for sparking global conflict by attacking Saudi Arabia and Israel. Furthermore by forcing both the USA’s hand as well as Russia’s conflict is in the offing.  

If Iran balks in the coming weeks, their economic turmoil will increase.  At that point the regime will be in danger. Essentially, Iran can be stopped by the regime itself.

Conclusion

Despite neoconservative warmongering against Iran and their client regime in Syria, the best choice of action at this point is to find a way to keep forcing the price of oil lower until Iran either makes a faulty step forward or waits too long to jump. Militarily speaking Israel and those seeking to defend the World from the Mullahs must be ready to fight when Iran attacks which will come sooner than expected.  The rest will be up to the Almighty.

 

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[Podcast] Putin’s Oil Quagmire

With oil prices down to $30 and falling fast Russia cannot afford to put the kind of emphasis on military campaigns it needs to in order to be counted on to defeat Islamic extremists.  This leaves ISIS in a far better position than the Obama administration would have everyone believe. It also means that the transition to a multi-polar world is no where near done.  One thing that is clear, Israel should not jump into any strategic alliance even if it seems  helpful in the short term.  In the great global shift we find ourselves in, strategic alliances are hard to come by.

Listen to today’s podcast for greater insight on where things are going. Hang on to your seats change starts now!

  1. http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Industry/2016/01/11/Putin-says-economy-under-threat/8231452508249/
  2. https://www.rt.com/op-edge/328930-libya-oil-fields-accord/
  3. http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4751759,00.html
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Dismantling the Right of Return

The Palestinian demand for the “Right of Return” has long been a core belief set to the broader peace narrative in relation to a permanent settlement with Israel.  On the face of it, the demand seems pretty solid, that is of course if one buys into the Palestinian narrative without questioning the very basis of its claims.

Palestinians claim the following:

  • Everyone has the right to leave any country, including his own, and to return to his country. -Article 13(2), Universal Declaration of Human Rights (10 December 1948).
  • The Geneva Conventions of 1949.
  • The General Assembly, Having considered further the situation in Palestine … Resolves that the refugees wishing to return to their homes and live at peace with their neighbors should be permitted to do so at the earliest practicable date, and that compensation should be paid for the property of those choosing not to return and for loss of or damage to property which, under principles of international law or in equity, should be made good by the Governments or authorities responsible.” -UN General Assembly Resolution 194 (11 December 1948)
  • United Nations General Assembly Resolution 3236 which “reaffirms also the inalienable right of the Palestinians to return to their homes and property from which they have been displaced and uprooted, and calls for their return”.
  • Resolution 242 from the UN affirms the necessity for “achieving a just settlement of the refugee problem.”
  • Supporters of the Palestinian right of return maintain that “the right of return for the 1948 Palestinian refugees still exists according to international law. It exists despite the language of the Oslo agreements, insufficient as they are in this regard, and despite the position of the current Israeli government. Palestinian refugees should be free to seek their right to repatriation, regardless of what the PLO acquiesces to, so long as UN Resolution 194 remains in force”.
  • No one shall be arbitrarily deprived of the right to enter his own country. -Article 12, International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights(23 March 1976).

The main crux  behind using many of the above statements lies with attaching the Palestinian Right of Return to something national.

After all, Israel has the Law of Return, which designates any Jew or a person that has 1/4 Jewish ancestry as eligible to return to his/her ancestral homeland.  The Palestinians argue that if a Jew can return after a hiatus of of 1,700 to 2,00 years then they who were here in between should certainly be aloud back.

Essentially speaking the Palestinian claim and statements from international treaties that seem to support it do so because refugees and their return depend on origins within a recognized national entity.

Between the years 1917 and 1948, as the modern Nation States of the Middle East were being created by world powers, no one believed there to be unique nation called Palestine.  In fact all references to Palestine connected the word to Jews and their inalienable rights to form a Nation State their. Why?  Because simply speaking, the current Palestinians had no Nation in the Levant.  This is not to say they were not there, they were or at least a percentage of them were, but they had no previous national claim to the Land.  Some were considered Syrians and other Egyptians, but none of them used the word Palestinian or connected themselves to a distinct national heritage in defining themselves.

Ryan Bellerose, a native Metas from Canada wrote an excellent piece this week refuting Palestinian claims to being indigenous. National indigenous rights are a key component hen tackling issues connected to refugees and this is why Palestinians who formed their collective narrative as an anti-narrative to Israel and Jewish rights there are some forceful in trying to prove that themselves had some sort of national collective experience that was taken from them.  If not, then their claims to deserving a right of return falls through.

One cannot build a national narrative whose sole foundation is the negation of another people’s narrative. That is not a legitimate narrative nor is it something that deserves the right of return.

It is clear that a right of return should belong to the one cultural group that exerted itself time and time again as the national sovereign in the Land of Israel and that is he people of Israel.  It is true individual rights should be given to all persons that live in the Land of Israel.  That does not make them a historically indigenous people nor does it give them the right to claim a return generations later.

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Iran and USA: Cornering Israel

Shortly before President Obama’s final State of the Union Address, Iranian Revolutionary Guards gunboats seized and detained 2 ships belonging to the United States military and the ten marines on board. Less than 24 hours later the marines were released. The typical chorus and rhapsody of neoconservative pundits seriously believed that this would be the “straw that broke the camel’s back” and Obama would have the guts to stand up to the Persians.

The assumption that the Obama administration works according to the same rule book that past Presidents have is a perception that just doesn’t fit.  The Obama administration won’t risk war with Iran, not because it believes war is bad.  Afterall they toppled Gaddafi. They won’t risk war with Iran, because Obama and team and their shrills in the media believe wholeheartedly that Iran should be seen as a future strategic partner.  After all, Obama didn’t even mention the captive soldiers in his State of the Union Address. Of course for Obama, this is more to do with his world outlook than strategic positioning.

Barack Obama is a transformational President. In that regard, bridging the divide with Persia, a country he believes deserves respect because of their ancient roots, fits in with his restructuring of geopolitical partnerships.

Furthermore, it is quite probable the action Iran took was undertaken from the beginning as a means to show that they are actually reasonable. Given Obama’s rapprochement with Iran, he is more than willing to let Iran play the part of a reasonable actor.

Israel In a Corner

Bibi Netanyahu’s entire mantra is that one should not negotiate with irrational actors as was done with North Korea. Bibi has from the beginning tried to prove that Iran and North Korea are very similar.  This has fed into Obama’s strategy of showing the opposite.  By inculcating in the American people that Bibi and Israel are saber rattling and preventing what should otherwise we be a rapprochement, then the bad guys backed by the neocons is really Israel.

Once again the the chess match between Bibi and Obama has entered another back and forth phase.  The challenge for Israel is realizing they are playing  at a chessboard alone as their challenger plays with very different rules and a far more sinister goal.

 

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Iran and the USA: Partnering for Destruction

In the shifting sands of the Middle East, old alliances are crumbling and new ones are forming.  Nowhere do we see the evidence of this in the support the American government is giving Iran over Saudi Arabia in the growing feud between the two countries.

True, the American administration is playing it cool, but already the think tanks that lay various trial balloons have been working over time.  

“Saudi Arabia is in serious trouble, and they know it,” Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, told Business Insider on Sunday.

Bremmer added on Morning Joe that “I don’t know what legitimizes this regime [Saudi Arabia] going forward.”

The chorus is growing to let Saudi Arabia stew and in a sense the regime there understands it and that is exactly why they are ratcheting up the pressure. One of the arguments for going neutral or even subtly supporting Iran against Saudi Arabia is that eventually the theocrats in Persia will melt away and when they do Iran fits in far better with a future American foreign policy than Saudi Arabia.  

Whether or not there is some legitimacy to this is not the point, what the world is witnessing is a pendulum that is swinging so fast that it threatens to destabilize the remaining normative countries in the region.  This storm that is brewing between Iran and Saudi Arabia will almost certainly lead to a disastrous conflict that can and will bring in nations from around the world.

The Future is Now

Israel will have to act in a careful, but at the same time determined manner. Unfortunately the present leadership has allowed the threats to build up around Israel’s borders and may actually be much further in a corner than they want to admit.

Look for the next few months to be extremely volatile in the broader Middle East as countries jockey position before the opening shots of a much broader conflict.

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Can Russia Be Trusted?

The deconfliction mechanism that had been hailed as a stroke of geopolitical genius from the brain of Bibi Netanyahu seems to be a double edge sword. It is a sour pill that keeps on getting worse.  Especially now that Hezbollah is exploiting the agreement to prepare a forward attack on Israel’s North. It is true that Russia would prefer not to have an Israel that feels so threatened it destabilizes the Levant, but like I have insisted for a while, Putin is far more a tactical player when dealing opposing forces he wants to utilize in his broader strategy.

For Putin those that deserve his help are those that perform.  Israel will have to deal with an Iranian backed militia with free reign to attack, while delicately placating the Russian Bear who seems to be bending the rules of the deconfliction mechanism each week.

Trusting Putin is Mistake

The Israeli government has consistently made the same mistake throughout the decades.  It struggles to find players it feels it can put its trust in and by providing more assistance than anyone else it believes there will be reciprocity.

During the Cold War this strategy worked, simply because the tectonic plates of geopolitics demanded that it worked, but now in a multipolar world, putting trust in one country or another without strong leverage is a mistake.

Although Putin is a strong man, Israel is just another piece on his chessboard. Nothing should prove this more than Putin forcing us into a corner through niceties while Hezbollah and Iran have been able to build up on Israel’s borders.  It’s true Putin has allowed the Israeli Air force to attack arms convoys heading to Hezbollah. It is striking that the IAF did not attack in the latest skirmish, but rather Israel resorted to pounding the area with artillery.  This can only mean one thing.  Russia is holding Israel back from taking clear steps against Hezbollah.

Trust Only in G-d

Israel’s government needs to rely only on themselves and their faith in the Almighty  All else will fall into place.  The miracles that accompanied the Jewish people back to their Land are clear. If the Nation will increase their belief and trust in the Almighty as they did in the past then nothing will harm them.  Unfortunately the government seems to only mention themselves in reference to the situation without attribution to a higher power.

In the coming months the situation will continue to deteriorate. The question is who will stand up and lead Israel to victory.

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Iran and Saudi Arabia to the Death

The news on most geopolitical analysts minds is whether Iran will back up their harsh verbal response to Saudi Arabia’s beheading of a Shiite Sheik with something more militaristic. At the end of the day, Iran has a small window of time to put the squeeze on Saudi Arabia. Right now, Russia shields Iran from any backlash thrown at them if they choose to be more aggressive. Mix in Obama’s dismal mideast policy, the ingredients are there for Iran to make a move.

Saudi Arabia also has a short time frame to flex their muscles. Iran is building a superior ballistic missile program and Saudi Arabia cannot afford to let the Persians stabilize themselves and grow into a true regional super power.

This Year is it

The next four to six months are key as Sunni Islam is on the defensive against a resurgent Shiite Crescent backed by Russian firepower.  Each side will grow more bellicose both in verbiage and actual actions taken. Already, Iranians stormed the Saudi Embassy in Tehran.  Expect much more.

Next Actions

Iran will attempt to foment organic uprisings in the gulf allies of Saudi Arabia.  They will also stir trouble in the Shiite dominated Saudi Southeast and once again in Yemen. Saudi Arabia will continue to financially back ISIS and other groups. All of these steps seem to be leading to a head on collision will have an explosive and devastating effect on the region and quite possibly the whole world.

The Israel Factor

So how does this affect Israel? With the government seemingly dozzy with the growing intifada, the real danger is are threats piling up on the border. Although Saudi Arabia and Israel are not freind in the slightest, in terms of Iran they are tactically ready to work together.  Look for more intelligence sharing as well as overt military maneuvers to increase. If there is a move towards open war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Israel may take direct action against Iran, that is if they don’t have their own flank to defend.

 

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OPEN THE DOOR AND LET JUSTICE IN

Knock, knock! Who’s there? Erdogan is knocking on Israel’s door. Shock! Surprise!! NOT! Turkey, with debacle after debacle now wants to restore relations with Israel. Oh really? After Erdogan’s military shot down a Russian jet, within hours Putin announced his first move, economic sanctions on Turkey, saying ‘We will not buy from you, rather we will buy from Israel.’

Stab and twist.

With Putin’s strong arm in Syria, the Russian military is coming out successful in efforts to obliterate ISIS/Daesh and frankly, Turkey is in the roost. Not only has Turkey been accused of aiding and financing ISIS/Daesh, who is one of the most evil & vile force in the world today, but Turkey is widely known to be connected to our enemy, Hamas. This factor must, absolutely be dealt with. Putin in a smart political move met with Netanyahu to show Erdogan and whoever else, this alliance is fortified. Now Erdogan wants to restore relations with Israel.

By the year’s end, the Israeli government will decide how to proceed with Turkey. What will the strategy be? Flotilla payoff? Unilateral or bilateral demands? Anything? BUT WAIT! Another door has been knocking in Israel for years!! Behind it the blood of over a millions Armenians is crying out to NOT BE forgotten. Israel needs jump on this opportune time and recognize the Armenian Genocide with no delay.

Why now? Clearly, Israel has the upper hand. What do we have to lose? Erdogan needs Israel…. Our way or the highway. And I boldly suggest they stipulate Turkey to finally come out and confess their dirty deed. Israel, in particular, the Holocaust people needed to make this announcement many years ago, but to our shame because of politics, i.e. Turkish & Azerbaijani relations we have NOT. Try to put yourself in their shoes. Grounds of politics LOCKED, on grounds of compassion UNLOCKED with a welcome mat. In recent months, the news over and over again exposed how the Grand Mufti who spurred on the king of the Nazis to burn the Jews was also a part of the Armenian Genocide, and when he became the Grand Mufti, it was he who went to Hitler and helped plot against the Jewish people. Do you see the connection? Of course then there’s the famous quote when Hitler said, ‘Who remembers what happen to the Armenians.’

It is clear that we are connected in more ways than one, with Azerbajian/Nagorno-Karabagh conflict (an Armenian populated region given by the soviets to the modern day Azeris) and the Israeli/’Palestinian’ conflict. Both a diaspora people who recently obtained a country again, respectively. And here we are again, shall we stand idly by?? With the outreach of Armenians visiting and building relations with Israel, Armenia has proven to be a good ally even though, through ignorance, we are on Azerbaijan’s arms vendor list.

Armenia is a thriving, ambitious young country whose numbers would have been exponentially greater had not their Genocide like for us, had our Holocaust not happened. Our histories’ similar, our plights’ alike and our conflicts unresolved… There have been many advocates: Rivlin, pre-presidential days was a strong proponent for the recognition of the Armenian Genocide, Edelstein has gone before the Knesset earlier this year, Israeli Greek Orthodox priest Naddaf is outspoken for this cause, in Nov Sassounian, an American Armenian editor brought forth a compassionate, logical plea, of course for years the Israeli Armenian Community has attempted to reach ear that will not hear, last week a delegation from Armenian visited Israel and finally we the people of Israel, stand up and ask for justice. Israel must put politics aside once and for all. Let us stand with the Armenian people whose motto is Never Forget and say Never Again our motto. The time is now to open the door and recognize the Armenian Genocide.

I implore the Israel government to take this opportunity and make history. Stop being embarrassed of what we haven’t done and make a wrong right and also to stipulate to Turkey in their time of desperation, that Turkey needs to confess what the Ottoman Empire committed against the Armenians. Let’s take it all the way…. Answer the door let the screaming blood of the dead be put to rest. The doors are knocking…. open them both and restore the dignity of the dead and demand from Turkey justice as we are a light to the nations. Why? Because righteousness and wisdom is our path…