The Quiet Revolution

Darkness feels like it’s everywhere these days.  From ISIS, Iran, and Hezbollah on our borders and the slow motion Palestinian Intifada within, our enemies are literally surrounding us.  Old friends are in disarray and our new partners are untrustworthy. The government in Israel seems almost wishful in its outlook on our geopolitical situation and far too fixated on political gain by locking up young settler activists without trial.

The government has gone seemingly mad.  One day they are building an alliance with Greece, Cyprus, and Egypt and the next they are entertaining the idea of rapprochement with Turkey.

So why the confusion?

The State of Israel was born out of two conflicting historical movements. One was the 19h century nationalist movement that had swept the European continent and inspired European Jews to build for themselves a National Homeland in their historic home located in the Land of Israel.

The second movement popped up after the Holocaust and before National Independence in 1948. It what an international movement by the world to give the Jews a State a sort of amelioration for the slaughter that was purpotrated by the Nazis and their supporters during WW2. This movement came at the tailend of the Revolt in which the three competing Jewish paramilitary units in the Holy Land were attempting to push out the British. It is no accident that the British would have have saved millions of Jews if not for their whitepaper and yet despite the loss to the Jewish Nation, the Jews of the Palestinian Mandate pushed on against the one of the World’s strongest Nations.

Before the British could be embarrassed the amelioration movement, which had nothing to do with Zionism came in and saved the British. On the 29th of November 1947 Resolution 181 was passed by the UN and despite its never being implemented the Resolution cemented in the World’s mind that the State of Israel, (which would have been born with or without the UN) was birthed exclusively by the United Nations as a reaction to the Holocaust.

The sad irony that it was in fact Britain whose policies kept Jewish immigration to the mandate at near standstill while Jews were being slaughtered by the Nazis by the millions standing behind the fledgling Jewish State is not accidental. The young state would not last against the British trained Arab forces and in due time would have to invite the British back in. Of course the opposite happened and yet the colonial mentality persists and pervades the ruling elite in Israel.

The idea that Israel is a creation of the UN buries the gains the Zionist Revolution made within the hearts of the masses before the partition plan was drafted.  After all it was not us with the Almighty at our backs that pushed the British out, it was they they British who gave us our State. This causes a yearning to be loved by the Nations and creates an incoherent geopolitical strategy.

Noting the historical amnesia of the Jewish Nation, Rabbi Yehuda HaKohen, founder of Lavi Olami notes in a 2008 op-ed the following:

“Like the American Revolution, the Zionist Revolution succeeded in liberating a country from the mighty British Empire. And this was no small achievement for Jewish people who, only three years earlier, were being systematically butchered by the millions in Europe. Freedom was won in blood and fire by heroic young fighters willing to give their lives so that future generations would see a Hebrew flag over Jerusalem. But aside from this near-impossible feat, the Zionist Revolution also had – and still has – several more seemingly unattainable tasks to accomplish.”

Despite the setbacks and void in leadership at the national level, a quiet revolution is afoot. More and more people are recognizing that the path forward is to once again cultivate our roots. Silently and nearly methodically there has been an organic growth in young activists looking out at the regional landscape and seeing their own indigenous experience and wanting to hook back into it. It is this connection to the Land and Nation that young zionists within Israel are beginning to lay as the foundation for going forward.

More than this though, the Zionist Revolution calls on the people of Israel to elect and support leaders that partner with like minded indigenous nations in the region as well as economic and military policies that are independent from the needs of the interests of the global elites and neo-conservative elements entrenched in American foreign policy institutions.

A successful revolution means foreign organizations and global corporations who do not have the Jewish Nation’s best interests are to be kept out of decision making. Sadly our current leaders, from Naftali Bennett to Bibi Netanyahu at the very least believe the State of Israel has achieved its revolution and perhaps they have succumbed to the spirit that we were in fact born out of the ovens and gas chambers of the Holocaust rather than as a result of the immovable destiny of our ancient Nation.  

Thankfully, there are those who see things differently, who place the revolution still ahead of us. From the throngs of Temple Mount activists, to the young guard in the Likud as well Moshe Feiglin’s new party Zehut, Israel’s future is bright as the body politic across the country has begin to shed to darkness of the exile in order to embrace a far more expansive future.  

The challenges ahead are immense and in many ways the Nation of Israel has survived far more dire circumstances, but at the end of the day the leaders of our past were guided by the fears of the Holocaust without concern to the future. If Israel can embrace a complete faith in its cause and tap into the strength of its forefathers it will acquire the ability to deal with its enemies, while properly deciphering wrong from right. Only then will the Zionist Revolution have the ability to fulfill its true potential.

The world finds itself in a moment of chaos. Our leaders have been swept up by foreign ideals and goals.  Ultimately only a clear sighted vision based on truth and faith will lead us out of the darkness we are in.

 

Putin Has the Israel Weapon

The question isn’t whether Putin helped Israel kill Samir Kuntar, it is why Russia aided Israel in attacking one of the leaders of Iran’s terror squads against Israel. Putin had to be in on the operation since the deconfliction mechanism between Israel and Russia force compliance on both parties in air sorties over either Northern Israel or Southern Syria.

Analysts and pundits across geopolitical divide have wondered the extent of Russian and Israeli partnership. Some passed it off as a necessary evil on the part of Israel and others hailed the change in strategic trajectory for Israel.  It has not been clear.  The Kuntar assassination clears most of the guessing up.  If there was a doubt that Israel and Russia were not developing a robust partnership that is now gone. Once more the rapprochement between Israel and Turkey has not had any effect on this growing partnership between Russia and Israel.

Putin Does Not Trust Iran

Putin has never ascribed to Iran’s goal of establishing a Persian controlled Middle East. Russia would like to be in control of the region in as far as the oil and its military bases are concerned. A strong Iran provides Putin with a serious challenge down the road.  The problem is that Putin needs Iranian troops and ground support in Syria so he does not repeat the Russian mistakes of Afghanistan in the 1980s.  Right now because he has placed very little Russian soldiers into the fray, he is receiving huge support from the Russian citizenry.

While Russia needs Iranian troops, it does not need Iran exploiting the partnership in hopes it gets an edge up on Israel.  Putin knows a cornered Israel could create a far bigger problem.  Russia is also receiving advanced intelligence from Israel on ISIS positions.

Israel is Checking Iran for Putin

Putin, always the master chess player allows Israel to check Iran’s positions so he himself will not have to do it. The trade is that Israel allows Putin use of its airspace from time to time and offers intelligence for Russia’s campaign. Essentially, Israel is acting as Putin’s short leash on Iran. Iran has no choice but to follow along.  After all it is piggy backing on Russia’s involvement in saving Assad and pushing back on Turkey.

In an odd way Israel and Iran serve as both tactical spokes in Putin’s regional strategy as well as balancers between them.  Putin may not be interested in any grand peace deal the way Foggy Bottom has always been, but Putin does want regional order as he brings the Russians back into a global leadership position. If reports are to be believed Iran has significantly scaled down their ground involvement in Syria from it once was. Iran may have been helpful and still may be, but only as a tool to Putin’s grand strategy and nothing more. Checking Iran by way of Israel seems the best way to assuring that.

 

A World Without Samir Kuntar

It has been 7 years since Samir Kuntar was released in one of the most despicable prisoner swaps in Israeli history. Then Prime Minister Olmert saw the need to exchange something akin to the devil for two Israeli soldiers’ bodies and a civilian.

Samir Kuntar was in prison for his 1979 murder of a Danny Haran and his 4 year old daughter Einat Haran whose little head he smashed in with his rifle butt against a rock.  Einat’s little sister died in her mother’s arms by being mistakenly smothered to keep quiet. A policeman was also killed by the terror squad Kuntar led from Lebanon.  

Kuntar became a symbol for “the resistance” in both his vileness and when released his victory.  His release put Israelis of all backgrounds into a whirlpool of confusion and a belief that Israel became a rudderless ship.

As news reports began to surface this morning that Samir Kuntar who had returned to lead terror squads on behalf of Iran was finally wiped out by Israeli strikes near Damascus, a quiet relief settled into Israel. Some sort of pride and sense of justice returned to Israelis that had vanished since Samir’s original release.

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The question is what do we do with a world that seems filled up with Samir Kuntar?  Evil abounds, attacks are on the rise, and the “siege of Jerusalem and Israel” continues. Our leadership acts impotent and seemingly can only react to these attackers once they are caught and released.  The deeper issue is not why Samir Kuntar was released, but rather why was he in jail in the first place.  In jail he earned his degree and was able to use his situation as a symbol for the resistance. Kuntar’s prison time spawned millions of other Kuntars. There should be no more  tolerance a sovereign nation for our enemies continual expansion in our midst and around our borders

For Israel, it can no longer live in a world in which Samir Kuntar and the millions like him exist and through boundless evil prepare to destroy Jews, young and old. It is either us or them. For the Zionist Revolution to be truly successful we must free ourselves from the confines of exilic responses that payback justice far too late. A redemptive and free people would not tolerate even one Samir Kuntar and kill him before he killed anyone.

Turkey and Israel, Friends Again?

We live in a strange world.  As the American uni-polar world collapses, alliances are born and others fall away. Partnerships are formed based on near term survival, without consideration for the long view.  Turkey, by all estimates was heading into the dustbin.  Surrounded by Russia to the North East, Iran to the South East, and a resurgent Assad to the South with Russia behind him, Erdogan, the Sultan not to be was cornered. Russia supplies most of Turkey’s gas. Without Russia’s gas, Turkey would collapse due to a lack of energy.

Israel an Energy Leader

Israel rushed through the gas deal this week, not only because of the new energy alliance with Greece, Cyprus, and Egypt, but because of the secret deal now reveled to the World. Turkey would be given a life line and pulled out of its corner and Israel would act as the senior partner in the relationship.

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Leadership requires making decisions even if they are unpopular. Erdogan is not a nice guy.  He slaughters Kurds and denies his country’s role in the Armenian genocide, but Israel is in a different place now and chose to offer Turkey the lifeline it needed.

Two Viewpoints

There have been two pervading viewpoints int he defense establishment in Israel.  One is to work with Russia and embrace Assad in order to return stability to the Middle East. The other is to build relationships that will counteract Iran no matter the cost of stability and Russian tactical considerations.  The Turkey move, means the latter won out.

What of Greece and Cyprus?

Greece and Cyprus need Israel far more than it needs them.  The returning to ties with Turkey is a cold one, brought on by Jerusalem’s concern about Iran and Syria coming out of this war in a clearly unstoppable manner. Strengthening Turkey in a non-emotional way provides a push back to the Shiites. None of the maneuvers we are seeing are the products of long term strategic planning.  The post USA Middle East is too new to learn where the lines will be drawn.

Out of Putin’s own Playbook

Israel agreed to the return of relations with Turkey only because of the gas pipeline Turkey is willing to lay for Israel. By becoming the major gas provider to Turkey Israel holds the upper hand in the relationship. Mess with Israel and Turkey loses its gas. This has been Putin’s strategy with Europe for years.

A Dangerous Path

With Russia preparing for a possible war with Turkey and their tactical partnership with Iran, throwing a way out to Erdogan puts us in an uncomfortable situation. Putin clearly views Erdogan as enemy number one.  Israel helping him does not bode well for our relationship with Russia.  It could be there was never anything to talk about with Putin and that Jerusalem decided to move forward before Putin and company decided to put the Jewish Nation into a more uncomfortable spot. Whatever the reason, the new gas partnership puts Israel on the side of those counties Putin dislikes. In the coming weeks Israel will have to go out of its way to play down the deal or potentially face the wrath of Putin and his forces.

Cornering Israel…

With Kerry getting Obama to back off insistence on Assad’s ouster, the world continues its slide into geopolitical chaos.  Of course at first glance, Assad offers the kind of stability Syria needs and it was precisely trying to oust him which caused so many problems.

For the USA who is on a not so slow retreat, allowing Russia, Iran, and Syria to provide stability to the region seems logical.  The problem with this sort of stability is that Israel’s arch enemies will maneuver themselves into strategic positions along side the Jewish state.  Assad might bring stability, but that means Israel will be under serious threat.

Can Russia be Trusted?

I have written extensively on the fact that Russia does not want to upset the stability in the countries that are in fact most stable. It is clear Putin is not trying to put us into a tight spot, but he has some conflicting partnerships: Assad, Iran, and Israel. It is true the deconfliction mechanism lets us destroy heavy arms bound for Hezbollah, but the idea that Assad’s permanence means Iran gets to stick around is not something any of us want to see.

The prevailing thought is that Putin will hold the Ayatollahs on a short leash.  There is something to this, but the prospects of an emboldened Iran are not good.

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We Are Expendable

At the end of the day, the world is search of some sort of order. It is true we are light in a dark region, but nations can be erratic in times of chaos. Right now the transition is only beginning and Israel is doing its best to hedge its bets on who will come out on top.  It is clear Russia makes a great case on why we should move into their orbit, but if they cannot reign in Iran then it may be far more dangerous than going it alone.

Some Positive Developments

Despite many of the troubling signs flowing from the chaos in the Middle East, Israel’s ability to have a working relationship with Russia and covertly helping the Kurds to move their oil show we have some versatility in grappling with the complex challenge we find ourselves in.  By rolling with the changes and making partnerships based on strategic value, Israel can make it through one of the most chaotic times the Middle East has seen.

[Podcast] Israel’s Allies and Turkey’s Demise

This podcast is a continuation of my previous post on Israel’s indigenous allies.  The podcast covers Turkey’s isolation and the fast pace of the new security and energy alliance in the Eastern Mediterranean between Greece, Cyprus, Egypt, and Israel. In the podcast we also discuss Russia’s relationship to Israel and the turbulent changes in the region. Other subjects we cover are Russia’s encirclement of Turkey by way of Armenia, Iraq, and Syria, as well as Greece and Cyprus.

Sources to look at:

  1. http://www.timesofisrael.com/greek-pm-discusses-gas-development-with-netanyahu/
  2. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/turkish-president-recep-tayyip-erdogan-signals-possible-warming-of-ties-with-israel/articleshow/50170152.cms
  3. http://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-lukewarm-to-erdogan-overture-ball-is-in-turkeys-court/
  4. http://www.worldbulletin.net/headlines/167367/russia-continues-military-buildup-around-turkey
  5. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-turkey-iraq-idUSKBN0TX0TI20151214

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Israel’s Indigenous Allies

In the turbulent middle east friends can be hard to find, yet there are some allies Israel can unify behind it under the banner of fellow indigenous people of the region.  Before the Islamic Jihad poured out of the Arabian peninsula, the region looked a lot different. Over the years, the world has gotten used to the idea that the Arab nation has always been here, but as I illustrated in my last post on Yathrib, the truth is a different manner.

What is taking shape in the region spanning from the Eastern Mediterranean to East Iraq, is a rising up of those peoples pushed to the corner by Arab muslims over the past 1300 years. The following is a short list of perhaps the most friendly to Israel and why each one can and should see itself as part of a larger alliance in the region.

Kurds

So much has been written about the Kurds. They are the largest group still without a sovereign state, unless you consider the Kurdish Autonomous Region one. They are hated by Turkey and have been friendly to Israel.  They are Islamic in culture, but religiously very tolerant.  Related to the ancient Medes who were always welcoming to the Jews, they were the indigenous people of what is now Northern Iraq. Attacked from the South  by various caliphates and the North by the Turks, the Kurds are fierce in the defense of their homeland.

Israel has provided training and weapons to the KRG and behind the scenes has built an oil trade stemming from Mosul.  The fact that both groups find themselves on the same side when it comes to both ISIS and Turkey only cements the quiet partnership.

Druze

The Druze are part of the fabric of Israeli society.  They serve in some of the most elite units and are loyal to the state. Israeli Druze consider themselves to be part of a blood pact with the Jewish people and will defend the Land against the Arabs, whom they consider to be invaders. Major population centers of the Druze exist in Southern Lebanon and Jabal Al Druze in Southern Syria. There are 1.5 million Druze in the Levant.

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Cypriots

Cyprus has been under the broader Greek world for almost 2.5 thousand years.  Lying just to the West of Israel, it is one of the largest islands of the Mediterranean and shares many of the same gas fields as  Israel does.  It also suffers from occupation, with the Northern half of the Island under occupation from Turkey. This makes Cyprus a perfect partner in both defense and energy.

Arameans

One of the most confusing things about Christians in Israel has been their connection to the Arab narrative.  Of course this has always been partly due to the fact that the Arab conquest forced many of these Christians to adopt Arab culture.  Despite this, many Christians in Israel and Syria have clawed back into their roots and have rebuilt their stolen identity once known as Aramean.  These Arameans are under threat in Syria, but have found Israel to be an excellent and natural ally against their common enemy, radical Islam.

Copts

Copts are the indigenous people of Egypt, that is before the Arabs invaded. They remained the majority population there until the 10th century and to this day are a large minority within Egypt. Since their roots can be traced to the beginning of Christianity and according to many Copts to the ancient Egyptians, the Arabs have made sure to oppress them in order to substantiate their hold.  Copts probably suffer the worst persecution across Egypt, Sudan, and Libya. Their plight is well known. Recently El Sisi, president of Egypt has gone out of his way to protect them.  

Armenians

Armenians are an ancient people and although in the Southern Caucasus region, their proximity to Turkey, Iran, and Iraq, put them into the Middle East’s strategic envelope. They suffered heavily under the Turks and were decimated by the Ottomans in the early 20th century. One of the four quarters in Jerusalem’s Old City is heavily populated by Armenians and because of their suffering at the hands of the Turks they feel a sense of friendship with Israel and the Jewish people.

Armenians are also becoming a key geo-location in the growing friction between Russia and Turkey.  Russia has recently positioned attack helicopters there as part of their growing encirclement of Turkey. With all eyes on Turkey and ISIS, Armenia provides a great strategic ally in Caucasus region for Israel. It is another indigenous people that have suffered at the hands of Turkey, which has become one of the main backers of ISIS and radical Islam.

The above groups can serve as something more than a security envelope for Israel.  They can serve as a foundation for a liberated Middle East.

idegenous-people-middle-east

We Want Yathrib Back

When we want to confront our present, we often forget about using our history as a guideline. Islam understands that most of humanity is detached from its past. As much as we pride ourselves as knowledgeable, we have a hard time shaking preconceived notions of who is or who isn’t indigenous to a particular place. Muslim Arabs will have the accidental observer believing that the whole of the Middle East has been their home for thousands of years. Of course, this couldn’t be farther from the truth. This is why Islam has the practice of transferring the narratives and locations of cultures it conquers into its own narrative.

yathrib-khybar
Map showing Yathrib (today’s Medina) and Khaybar another Jewish city Muslims wiped out.

It is not an accident that after the Muhammad’s victory at Badr he moved to expel the Jewish tribes in control of Yathrib. These tribes along with the Ansar gave Muhammad and his followers protection.  In typical Muhammed fashion and what would set the stage for future Islamic warfare, they waited until the right time to rally people to their side against the Jews, causing the Jewish tribes to push Muhammad out of their city. However, the Jewish tribes and their allies lost in the Battle of the Trench. The main Jewish tribe, the Banu Qurayza of Yathrib were expelled with the men executed. Muhammed changed the name of the city to Medina as it is now known.  Jews were banned from there and Medina in the eyes of the World has and will always be  a Muslim Holy city. Of course Yathrib was only the beginning.

Khaybar, another Jewish controlled city and perhaps the strongest one became the site of Muhammad’s famous victory over the Jews of the Arabian peninsula. 

From North Africa to Istanbul to the Arabian Peninsula, Islam has appropriated and erased history.  We are seeing the Islamic State continue this tradition, and ultimately the Palestinian National Movement does this throughout Israel as well.

One has to wonder why Jihadist Islam does this. My assumption is the fact that Islam owes its success to turning the tables on the people of the Book, serves as a sort of pandora’s box for the veracity that Islam, or should I say fundamentalist Islam, is nothing more than Mein Kampf with religious overtones.  

It should not go unmentioned that Muhammad himself was sure that the Jews would follow him.  The Koran at one point directs Muslims to pray towards Jerusalem and only after the Jews rejected him as their Messiah did Muhammad change directions to Mecca.

Truth is hard to swallow to those who have staked their causes on falsehood.  Yathrib and Jewish Arabia is a fact. The reality that Islam’s second holiest city became so by uprooting the people of the Book from it and by doing so uprooting the Islamic claim to being connected to them has created an inner conflict that expresses itself in the guise of hatred towards Israel.  For the Jihadist and fundamentalist Muslim all areas of Jewish existence and especially sovereignty are Yathrib, waiting to be turned into Medina.

The problem for Radical Islam and its millions of adherents, is that the rise of Israel reverses the conquering of Yathrib. This they know deep inside means that their own success is also being reversed. For peace to reign Islam needs to acknowledge the injustice of their cause.  The quickest way to right historic wrongs is for the Muslim world to come to grips with the fact that they have built their belief set on the ashes and rubble of Yathrib. Perhaps changing its modern name back to its original would go a long way to explaining to the throngs of believers that the game is up.  For some reason I don’t believe that will happen.

Iran and the Jabal Al Druze Fiasco

The political and military echelon in Israel have often stated that Israel is staying neutral in the Syrian civil war.  Any attacks on Syrian targets were meant to prevent game changing weaponry from falling into the hands of Hezbollah. After all, they insisted, our enemies are killing each other. No one seemed to be able to foresee direct Russian involvement and with it Iranian ground troops moving closer to Israel.

When the dust settles between Russia and Turkey their ISIS allies, Iranian, Syrian, and Hezbollah forces will in fact attack Israel. Despite what the leadership will tell us, their “neutrality” during this war enabled Iranian troops to fill the void left open on the Syrian side of the Golan. This tactical blunder on Israel’s part could have been thwarted as late as this past June. Jabal Al Druze or otherwise known as Druze Mountain is a district and home to a large portion of the Syrian Druze population situated East of the Golan Heights on the border of Jordan.  It is a mountainous region and until the civil war the population remained 100% loyal to Assad.  

Jabal Al Druze

 

With chaos reigning, ISIS forces began closing in on Jabal Al Druze in June and since the Druze are considered apostates by the Jihadists, many experts believed they would be killed on mass. Israel’s own Druze population wanted more to be done and yet nothing overt was undertaken.  

All of this was before Russian involvement, when Assad looked as if he was finished. Israel’s opportunity to push their security line far to the East was missed and now a resurgent Assad can once again count on the loyalty of the Druze there.

One of the reasons why Israel did not go into Jabal Al Druze was because the Israeli elite abhor the appearance of seeming like the aggressor.  The problem with this approach and especially in this situation, was that the Druze really looked under threat and given Israel’s own loyal Druze populace and the blood bond many of them feel with the people of Israel, extending the IDF’s control over this area would have been wholly explainable to the international community.

By the way, it should be noted that Jabal Al Druze was actually an autonomous region from 1921 to 1936 when Syria was under French control.

Timing is Everything

Five months later, and the Middle East has changed into something unrecognizable. Timing is everything in war and staying neutral is never an option within a fluid situation.  Bibi Netanyahu’s strategy has always been to wait this out, but opportunities are lost when you don’t move in time. The loss of moving Israel’s security line East, by harnessing a thankful Druze population in Southern Syria, now means Iran is at Israel’s border.

How fast the next stage of the conflict progresses is anyone’s guess, but if the last 2 months are an indication, staying out of Syria is no longer an option.

Putin on the Move

It is clear that Putin sees his mission to exterminate ISIS as well as the Syrian opposition to Assad.  To Putin they are one and the same. This entails Russia successfully destroying Turkey’s supply lines to their ISIS allies. Right now Russia is doing this in the Western part of Syria by obliterating the Turkmen bases in the Kızıldağ district on the border of Turkey.  After Kızıldağ the next logical place for Putin to focus on would be the remaining supply route from Turkey into Syria and that would be from the border of Turkey and Syria near Jarabulus a Syrian city that has a population 11,500.  The road from there leads South along the Euphrates River to the Islamic State’s capital of Raqqah.

Jarabulus Google Maps

If Putin and Syrian ground forces continue to advance against both ISIS and the Turkish supply lines, ISIS will be crippled, leaving only Iraq as a solid territory under their rule. Yet, that too could be under fire soon as the Iraqi government has asked Russia to step in and kick Turkish forces from Northern Iraq.

If Russia succeeds with the help of Syrian and Iranian ground forces, Turkey will end up with an emboldened Kurdish presence to its South as well as a generational setback to Erdogan’s grand designs to be the neo-Sultan of the Middle East. The Sunni World would be in upheavel and the Middle East and the bulk of the world’s oil supply would be held by Russia and the Shiites (save for Saudi Arabia).

Closing the Bosphorous is Turkey’s Only Recourse

Below is the relevant text from the Montreux Convention Articles 19, 20, and 21 of agreed upon in 1936:

Article 19.

“In time of war, Turkey not being belligerent, warships shall enjoy complete freedom of transit and navigation through the Straits under the same conditions as those laid down in Article 10 to 18.”

“Vessels of war belonging to belligerent Powers shall not make any capture, exercise the right of visit and search, or carry out any hostile act in the Straits.”

Article 20.

“In time of war, Turkey being belligerent, the provisions of Articles 10 to 18 shall not be applicable; the passage of warships shall be left entirely to the discretion of the Turkish Government.”

Article 21.

“Should Turkey consider herself to be threatened with imminent danger of war she shall have the right to apply the provisions of Article 20 of the present Convention.”

We are all aware by now that Turkey has been slowing down Russian vessels and with that a Russian warship had a soldier standing on it with a shoulder guided missile in plain site. According to the above treaty Russia broke article 19 and Turkey very well may use that in the coming days to close the straits.  Putin will have to reopen them by force setting the stage for a broad war against NATO. Erdoan is banking on NATO stepping in.  Putin believes they will at the most make a token gesture out of Europe’s fear of having their gas cut in the dead of winter.

Of course Obama and the USA are stuck between two converging realities.  With the ISIS attack in San Bernadino last week, Obama would be hard pressed to defend Turkey given Russia’s proof that Erdogan has been assisting ISIS and then again not defending Turkey would mean that Russia and Iran would be in control of much of the Middle East and the Black Sea with Russia having an acute ability to dictate the future of Europe.  Right now Obama seems frozen or pre-occupied in order to turn the domestic situation to some sort of advantage for his agenda.

Iran Filling the Void in the Syrian Golan

While Russia makes moves to flatten Turkey and their aspirations, Iran is using their tactical pact with Russia to take over the positions ISIS and Al Nusra once had in the Syrian side of the Golan. Israel’s leaders have made bellicose statements, but Iran stands undeterred as their pincher move is rapidly set up. Israel has one move and that is to strike now while Russia is involved in the North, but that brings another set consequences. The die is cast. The next moves on the chessboard of the now expanding Syrian conflict is Israel’s and Turkey’s.

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