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Micha Gefen

Micha is a government policy analyst for Israel Rising.

BordersRegional Analysis

The Real Reason Trump Wants to Hit Syria…

by Micha Gefen
written by Micha Gefen

All signs are pointing to an imminent “preemptive” strike by the US against Syria.  This is of course a prelude to an ever-expanding role for the US military in Syria.  Now, even if Syria was about to use chemical weapons it is not clear why the US is suddenly concerned about intervening in the 6-year-old civil war. Yet, they are intervening and have been increasing their ground ops for weeks.

  • The US Military has been actively training an supporting the SDF and YPG against ISIS in Raqqa as well as solidifying the groups’ hold over large areas of Eastern Syria
  • The US Military has been active on the Eastern part of the Syrian, Jordanian, and Iraqi border area, building US bases in Syria.
  • The US Military has redeployed the YPG to Southeastern Syria in hopes they will hold off the Syrian regime advancement

With all of the above in mind, Trump’s now direct threat against the Syrian regime and Russia’s response puts the entie region on the verge of a Syrian War on steroids.

So why would Trump risk a war with Russia/Iran over chemical weapons infractions?

As we have reported here, the Syrian Regime and its Iranian allies have been gaining ground across the country. According to sources on the ground, the Syrian regime is close to defeating rebel units in Daraa.  The Syriran regime has already started to advance on Israel, but has been held back for now by elements of the FSA (Free Syrian Army) which Israel covertly backs. In the East, the YPG has been unable to hold off the Regime’s advance.

If Trump does not make a move soon, the FSA in the Quneitra area will collapse and at the same time the gains by the US and Jordan in the East will be effectively reversed.  This will complete the Shiite Crescent from Tehran to Aleppo, and create an existential threat to Israel and Saudi Arabia. The Shiite Crescent will also give strength to Turkey’s goal of wiping out the Kurds, effectively ending Kurdistan’s drive for independence.

The US has little time to maneuver as Syria backed by Russia and Iran are in the final weeks of mopping up from the Syrian civil war.

It is either now or never.

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Borders

WHITE HOUSE READIES FOR WAR: Assad Preparing Another Chemical Weapons Attack

by Micha Gefen
written by Micha Gefen

Sean Spicer Tweeted the following late last night concerning advance preparations for Syrian regime massacre with chemical weapons.

Then Nikki Haley followed Spicer up with the following Tweet:

Whether the assertions here concerning Assad’s preparations for a chemical attack are true or just a false flag in order to provide a reason for the USA to enter the Syrian war doesn’t quite matter.  At the end of the day if the US is trying to make the case that Russia and Iran are also culpable then the Syrian crisis is moving beyond the scope of anything we have seen.

Assertions of the kind made above have real world consequences.  This is not to say that Assad should be backed or Russia’s Putin is really a friend like so many others push on their blogs, but entering into the Syrian foray would radically change the Middle East and probably the world as a direct war between Russia and the USA would become a real possibility.

It is true that Trump has no interest in starting pointless wars, but there are those in the White House that are. As we have seen Trump is highly suceptible to advice given by those he deems loyal even if it is partially skewed and misguided.

The ominous situation that Syria and those countries near it now find themseves in is about to get a lot more crazy. There are those in the Kremlin who are very susicious of US intentions. Bellicose statements, even if they are not backed can have the potential to spark a wider conflict.

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Frontlines

MODI IS COMING: Indian Prime Minister to Visit Israel, Yes this is Really Really BIG

by Micha Gefen
written by Micha Gefen

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu stated at his weekly cabinet meeting:

“Next week, the Indian Prime Minister, my friend, Narendra Modi will arrive in Israel, This is an historic visit to Israel. In the 70 years of the country’s existence no Indian Prime Minister has ever visited and this is further expression of the State of Israel’s military, economic and diplomatic strength. This is a very significant step in strengthening relations between the two countries. India is a huge country with over 1.25 billion people and is one of the world’s largest, growing economies. Ties between Israel and India are on a constant upswing.”

“Today, the Cabinet will approve decisions that will deepen these ties, beginning with expanding exports and deepening cooperation in agriculture and water. We will establish a joint innovation, and research and development, fund. We will also increase tourism from India to Israel; this has very great potential. All of this is an additional expression of Israel’s enhanced international position in recent years as we strengthen the State of Israel.”

The Israel-India partnership has been developing and building for years. In an unstable world this partnership can and most likely will change both the Middle East and Near East.

I wrote this in my post in December:

“With a billion people in India, making it the largest democracy in the world, Israel finds a partner that has no in built nor cultural hint of anti-Semitism (Jews have been living in India for 2000 years) and fights against the same past and present enemies as itself. Through technology and military partnerships as well long time cultural connections the two countries are set to impact the globe way beyond their regions.  It is the ultimate partnership that will shake the global order currently controlled by the US, Britain, EU, China, and Russia.”

With no offense meant to our American readership (whose country has long backed our rights to our homeland), Modi’s visit is a pendulum changing event that marks the moment when two former British colonies reached a point when they were able to reclaim the mantle of world leadership they had before it was taken from them.

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BordersFrontlines

SYRIA CRISIS: Will Har Dov Be Iran’s First Target in Israel?

by Micha Gefen
written by Micha Gefen

Har Dov maybe the first target of an Iranian attack on Israel.

As the Iranian and Russian backed Syrian government continues to extend its offenses South into the Daraa province, effectively cutting off Israel backed militias in the Eastern Golan with their counterparts East of Jabal Al-Druze, the next stop for the campaign is to move West on the Golan border.

Israel has controlled the Golan since 1967 and annexed the mountainous area in 1981.  Syria has never hidden its ambition in taking back the strategic territory, either through war or negotiations. Unlike the Southern Lebanese border area, the Golan has only recently been the subject and focus of Hezbollah.

With the advance of the Russian-Iranian axis the Har Dov area of the Golan takes an added statregic importance. Claimed by both Lebanon and Syria, Har Dov, also known as the Shebaa Farms has been the source of increased surveilance by Hezbollah.

Sources close to Israel Rising told us the official response to these surveliance actions has been to not shoot out of fear of starting a war with Hezbollah prematurely.  Hezbollah agents are often seen close to the mountainous border fence aking pictures.  Since they are not armed, soldiers refrain from shooting.

So why is Iran focused on Har Dov?

Although the international community has backed Israel’s claim that the area is in fact Syrian and included in the Golan Heights, the Lebanese government still claims the strategic region.  More than that the border area is pourous as the IDF was forced to fence in the entire Arab town of Ghajar which is further South of Har Dov and lies on both sides of the Lebanese border.

As far as strategic importance, Har Dov leads to the Banias river which descends into the upper Galil opening up the entire Israeli North. With Iran/Syria/Russia building up on the Golan’s Eastern border, an attack and infiltration on Har Dov could effectively cut the Golan off from Northern Israel.

 

Har Dov in the Golan

Image Source: Garzo/Wiki

 

With the continued breakdown of the US backed coalition forces in Southern Syria, Har Dov becomes critical in defending against an Iranian backed attack on Iran. Northern Israel and the Golan Heights is fast becoming the next showdown in the Syrian conflict.

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Palestine FallingPartnershipsPolitics

Jared Kushner is in Israel, Is Peace Actually Happening?

by Micha Gefen
written by Micha Gefen

Jared Kushner landed in Israel just under 24 hours ago and after rushing to visit the grieving Malka family over their daughter’s murder on Shabbat he wasted no time going to visit Bibi Netanyahu.

The purpose of Kushner’s visit is to push Trump’s “ultimate deal” to broker Israel-Palestinian peace.  To casual observers it appears that there is really momentum towards a peace deal.

Perhaps there is, but let’s look at five reasons this could all be just a show or even more importantly a deal that has nothing to do with the Palestinians:

  • Trump agrees with Israel’s rights as the sovereign in Jerusalem, “Palestinians” will never agree to that.
  • Trump does not really care about “settlements,” “Palestinians” believe they must go.
  • Trump has opted for regional normalization first before any agreement on final status issues.
  • If Mahmoud Abbas, the “Palestinian” strongman agrees to any deal he will be killed by his own people.
  • Trump agrees that Israel should have full security control over Judea and Samaria.

Given the above list, peace does not seem likely anytime soon.  So what’s really going on?

Interim Deal and Normalization

Trump’s team is pushing normalization first and then an interim solution leaving out final status issues for the foreseeable future. This is essentially a rendition of Education Minister Naftali Bennett’s Stability Plan. The interim deal will see some sort of non contiguous Palestinian State arise in Area A and B where they already have some sort of autonomy.  C will continued to be controlled by Israel.  “Settlements” will continue in two different capacities.  In the main blocks there will unrestrained building.  In the rest of the Jewish communities in Area C building will continue to allow for natural growth.

Furthermore, Israeli communities across Area C will be given the same political status as any other Israeli community.  This has already been established by Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked earlier in the month.

So they would Abbas or the Sunni Arab world go for any of this?

Abbas doesn’t want a real deal for reasons mentioned above. He does want a long-term status quo with an upgrade for the territory he manages.

The Sunni world has never liked the Palestinians.  They have created a “cause” in order to push back on Israel.  Now they need Israel and they need the “cause” they created to quiet down.  The interim plan is the way for this to happen.

Look for Kushner to push the beginnings of an interim solution, a solution that will be so long-term it may just be permanent.

 

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