Author: Micha Gefen

Micha is a government policy analyst for Israel Rising.
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Is Jordan In The Middle Of A Coup?

ArabNN is reporting that the rumors surrounding the disappearance of Jordan’s King are picking up steam as even Eddie Cohen of the Jerusalem Post appears to be confirming them.

Jordanian Opposition Leader Mudar Zahran has been agitating for full Palestinian rights in Jordan. 80 percent of Jordan’s populace are Palestinian Arabs and yet the King and his clan, along with the Muslim Brotherhood have essentially monopolized the country’s wealth and disenfranchised the majority of the populace. There has been growing discontent over the last year and calls for overthrowing the monarchy have grown.

“Jordan is facing unprecedented financial turmoil and COVID 19 death toll is rising at a staggering rate,” Jordanian Opposition Coalition (JOC) Leader Mudar Zahran said. “The ruling Hashemite family has systematically destroyed the country, and because no one has seen him in days, many are now asking: “Where’s Waldo?”

“Abdullah is clearly missing in action, and over 9 million Jordanians are searching for Waldo,” Zahran continued. “One thing is certain, he is running away from his duties, he brought this economic distress upon us, he lied to Jordanians juts three months ago telling them Jordan was almost COVID19 free, and now he left Jordanians to face their fate, while he is refusing to face the music.”

Intelligence website JAFAJ states the following:

“While the king’s whereabouts and conditions remain a mystery, Uncle Hassan has been frantically trying to fill the vacuum left by Abdullah’s absence, while drumming up political support.”

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How Does Jordanian Uncertainty Affect Israel

Israel has spent years propping up the Hashemite family in Jordan, to the point where despite King Abdullah’s partnership with Muslim Brotherhood terrorists, Israel still includes the monarchy in its security umbrella.

The thought has always been that despite the King’s two-faced policy, his “Kingdom” was necessary to provide a buffer to first protect against Iraq and then later Iran. Yet, with the recent deal between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain, as well as the growing possibility of Saudi Arabia, Jordan’s Monarchy has become a liability.

Is Saudi Arabia Helping To Depose the “Royal Family?”

There has been a long standing feud between the Hashemite and Saudi royal families dating back to when the Hashemites lived in what is now Saudi Arabia. The British placated the Hashemites by giving them what is today Jordan, leaving the Saudis in charge of the Arabian peninsula. Both dynasties have laid claim to being descended from Muhammed and both Kingdoms claim custodian over major shrines special to Islam. In Jordan’s case they control the management of the Temple Mount, which is within Israel’s security apparatus and sovereignty.

The last point is important and must be taken into account onto why Saudi Arabia sees the need to finally depose the Hashemites once and for all. The Hashemite claim to leadership of the Islamic world is essentially a farce. It resets on the fact that after 1967 the Israeli government was weak and allowed the Waqf to remain in charge. Thats it. Thats the whole claim King Abduallah and his family have.

The Saudis control Mecca and Medina, the two holist sites in Islam. They are a power player in the Middle East and see themselves as the rightful leaders of the Muslim world. Most of the world regards them that way as well.

So what is their interest in toppling the Jordanian Monarchy?

Simply put – peace.

With 80 percent of the Jordanian population made up of Palestinians and these Palestinians needing a State, the Saudis can ink a final deal between a Palestinian Jordan and Israel while signing a peace agreement themselves with the Jewish State. The Saudis would see their family replacing the Waqf as custodians of the Dome of the Rock and Al Aqsa and do away with a wannabe king who finds the Muslim Brotherhood in direct contravention of both American policy and Saudi interests.

So is Jordan’s King now on the way out? If he is, the Saudis are the most probable reason why – and that is a good thing for Israel and peace in the Middle East.

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Lead Iranian Nuclear Scientist Assassinated, But Did Israel Really Do It?

Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the Iranian scientist considered to be the mastermind behind Iran’s nuclear weapons program was gunned down Friday in Tehran.

Iran wasted no time blaming Israel: “Once again, the evil hands of global arrogance and the Zionist mercenaries were stained with the blood of an Iranian son,” Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said during a cabinet meeting early Saturday.

This was no doubt a major blow to Iran. This was on par with the Trump Administration’s targeted killing of arch Iranian terrorist Qasem Soleimani last year.

So while Israel is assuming there will be an Iranian response and rightfully raising alert levels at embassies around the world, the real question is – did Israel actually pull off such a high level assassination?

“I have no clue who did it. It’s not that my lips are sealed because I’m being responsible, I really have no clue,” Hanegbi, a confidant of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, told Meet the Press, Israel political TV show.

However, Prime Minister Netanyahu indicated the opposite on a video he posted on Facebook after the assassination: “I did a lot of things this week, not everything can be told.”

The truth is, while it is easy to believe that the Mossad has a team on the ground in Iran, it is also far more possible that Israel has made inroads into some of the non-Persian ethnic groups agitating against Iran and with their help have been able to penetrate deep within the Iranian security services in order to pull this attack off

Although the Mossad was directly involved in 2018, when it was able to break into Iran’s nuclear archives and remove 55,000 paper files and 183 CDs with another 55,000 files on them. No one doubts the Mossad’s prowess, but these sorts of attacks involving moving targets, explosives and gunmen are nearly impossible to pull off unless there was wide spread involvement by locals.

What Happens If They Never Left

When viewing the sorts of operations that the Mossad carries out, especially visa vi Iran, it must be assumed there is not one team who enters Iran, carries out the operation and then leaves. Rather, there is an obvious need for a team to remain there. Yet, Iranian intelligence is very good and so how is it possible this team has not been found yet?

Two possibilities come to mind.

Either the Mossad team is so good it just blends into the populace – disguised and all – or it is only one part of the team. The other part as mentioned above is made up of indigenous ethnic groups currently occupied by Iran.

Wikipedia

Above is a map detailing the various minority groups within Iran. It has long been known that the Kurds to the West and Baluchs to the South East are itching for independence. Any Mossad team could either come and go through KDP run Kurdistan into Western Iran or easily just blend into the local population there.

Furthermore, the Mossad may not be carrying out these sorts of assassinations, but rather work with disaffected groups by offering intelligence.

Iranian Kurds have been actively trying to separate since 1918. As recent as 2016 there have been armed clashes between Iranian Kurdish separatists and the Iranian Armed Forces. It would not be a stretch for any of these resistant groups to be fighting along side Western intelligence against Iran.

Either way, the actual success of the operation shows Iran’s intelligence services are lagging behind, not only because the Mossad has penetrated high enough up to be able to successfully carry out this operation, but because it has more than likely coopted locals to help it out.

Iran claims it will retaliate for the assassination of its top scientist, but it may not have much of a choice but to grit its teeth and focus on internal opposition instead.

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Jordanians Have Spoken – The Muslim Brotherhood Is Out, Is The King Next?

Israel has always put up with the King of Jordan’s addiction to the Muslim Brotherhood. After all, the King has served the Israeli government’s interest by providing a sort of known quantity on its Eastern border. True, he supports repressive laws in his country, a form of Apartheid against Palestinians living there and he cozies up to anti-semites around the Middle East.

Israel put up with the King’s hatred of the Jewish people and their right to Jerusalem and the Land of Israel, because until this summer Jordan and Egypt represented the only Arab states that were willing to make peace with the Jewish State.

With the UAE and Bahrain signing the Abraham Accord, Jordan’s King no longer has a use for Israel nor the Gulf States. In fact, his long standing pact with the Muslim Brotherhood may in fact be the very reason none of the Sunni Gulf States want to put up with him anymore.

This is why the recent elections in Jordan were such a blow to the King and his Islamicist partners.

Abed AlMaala, deputy secretary general of the Jordanian opposition said: “In Jordan, 3 things are clear. First, the King has placed himself above the Constitution, so he can do what he wants. Second, he appoints both the Prime Minister and all the members of the Upper House of Parliament. Finally, no one can run for office of any type without the king’s permission. Usually this means swearing allegiance and paying a hefty fee (bribe) to be on the ballot. Once on the ballot, it is almost assured that you will win, because it implies that the king has blessed your candidacy.”

For years now, there has been a growing grassroots movement opposing the Hashemite Royal Family. As the average Jordanian has seen a steep decline in his finances and quality of life, the animosity between the masses and the regime has grown.

In order to hold back the citizenry, the King has instituted repressive measures, but now they are in fact beginning to falter as well.

If the King cannot stablize his Kingdom, Israel may see its Eastern neighbor enter the type of chaos it was worried about to its North. Then again, with the UAE and Bahrain, it may be high time that the King is shown the door anyway. It is kind of hard to distract your citizens by blaming their lot on Israel when the UAE and Bahrain, both very successful see things quite differently.

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Why is Trump Pushing Peace when War Seems more Likely?

With Russia supporting  a Syrian-Hezbollah-Iranian attack on rebel positions in Daraa, putting them in striking position of northern Israel and Gaza continuing to heat up, literally, the USA has placed extra emphasis on its alliance with Israel.

Prime Minister Netanyahu said the following in yesterday’s cabinet meeting:

“Over the weekend I had two important meetings with Jared Kushner and Jason Greenblatt. We discussed the diplomatic process and regional issues, and there was special focus on the situation in Gaza. I must say that there was absolute support for our positions and our actions to ensure the security of the State of Israel and its citizens in the area adjacent to the Gaza Strip, which was expressed publicly by the American administration’s envoys. The issue also came up of how it might be possible to resolve the humanitarian problem in Gaza without strengthening Hamas. These matters are clear – first of all how to ensure security and how to prevent a broader flare-up, if it is at all possible. I expressed great appreciation for President Trump, Secretary of State Pompeo and of course for Ambassador Haley for the continual and strong support at the UN, which is very impressive.”

Given the tension rising in the region it is hard to understand why President Trump is still placing an emphasis on Middle East Peace.  The President met with Jordan’s King Hussein yesterday at the White House while Kushner and Greenblatt were speaking with Netanyahu just days earlier. With the proverbial noose tightening around both countries, why is the administration focusing on something that seems so far away?

Jordan is Cornered, Will they Fold?

The administration’s peace plan is done and like the Palestinian Authority has hinted, they are not included.  President Trump’s style is to apply maximum pressure to the side who is most obstinant.  In this case, it is Jordan, or let’s say Jordan’s King.

The Hashemite’s rule over its population, which is 80% Palestinian is tenuous.  In fact he relies almost entirely on US and Israeli security to keep safe. Now the Saudis and Gulf States have decided to prop up Jordan’s economy. With years of playing both sides, President Trump has decided to call the king of Jordan out.

With Iran, Hezbollah, and Syria closing in and the Palestinians in Jordan threatening a real revolt, Trump has the leverage he needs to force Jordan to accept the USA’s peace plan. Of course, that would mean an end to the Palestinian Authority with Jordan taking responsibility for those residents in 40% of Judea and Samaria that identify as Palestinian.

President Trump wants to use the external pressures of Iranian hegemony to force Jordan to accept it real role as “Palestine.”

2 Palestines and One Greater Israel

The plan that has seemingly been accepted within the Trump Administration is the breaking apart of the Oslo Peace narrative of the last 25 years. With Gaza, essentially independent, it has become a defacto Palestine. It has a government and is in charge of its own security and yes, very contiguous. Jordan will take over responsibility for areas A and B in Judea and Samaria and retain their custodial rights over Islamic religious sites in Jerusalem.  Israel will annex area C.

This is the plan that appears to be on the table and this is precisely why Jordan is so nervous about it. King Hussein has refrained from giving any credence that he already rules over Palestine.  Afterall, it is his rule which is artificial and if he agrees to Trump’s plan without any security and economic guarantees he will be risking his own neck with nothing in return.

President’s Trump’s emphasis on pushing a peace plan at this time is part of his larger strategy in using the rising tensions of war to force those leaders to come to the table.

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Hamas Fires 45 Rockets at Jewish Communities, IDF Responds Hitting Multiple Targets

After weeks of build up by Hamas in using “protestors” to breach Israel’s security fence,  some missile barrages, and flaming kites to terrorize Israeli citizens, the radical Islamic terror organization shot 45 rockets at Israel over night. Seven rockets were intercepted by the Iron Dome.  While there have not be serious physical injuries, many civilians are living in fear and inside bunkers.

Rockets were aimed at schools and other civilian locations.



The IDF responded, hitting multiple targets throughout the Gaza strip.

The real question is whether this is the beginning of something larger or a one-off volley meant to apply pressure on Israel.  Ultimately Hamas keep applying pressure, after all they promised to liberate “Palestine.” Any moment of laxity will enable those in the Palestinian populace that already question Hamas’ degenerative rule to gain a real foothold.