Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the Imminent Threat of Expanding War

If the latest reports out of the Levant are true, Turkey has quite possibly sparked a global war. RIA Novosti reports by way of Sputnik News the following:

“Turkish artillery opened fire on the positions of the Syrian army in the Alia hills region of northwest Latakia. Several shells have fallen from Turkish territory.”


Given the fact that Turkey has been building up its armed presence on the Syrian border has been seen by many as a sign of impending invasion.  Furthermore, Saudi Arabia has made it clear they would like to move ground troops into Syria in order to fight ISIS.  The combination of the two Sunni allies potentially sending ground forces into the Syrian chaos guarantees an exponential expansion of the war.

Russia, Iran, and the Assad regime know the Sunni countries will not sit by and watch themselves become diced up by Russian backed Shiite forces.  The Sunnis have spent way too much capital in stopping the burgeoning Shiite crescent to not try to push it back when it matters most.

Russia is not Backing Down

With oil prices falling and a weakened West, Russia cannot afford to back off it’s growing entanglement with Syria, especially since they appear to be winning. This is Putin’s gamble and he wants and needs to win. They have proven that sheer force and a disregard to international norms when attacking civilian areas can defeat what they view as radicalism.  Putin is sending a message out to the Islamic militants within Russia, not to mess around.

Erdogan Needs a Win or Else

Erdogan really thought that he would have been able to woo Israel back into his fold.  Yaalon has now indicated that it will not happen.  Without an energy partner and a tightening embargo from Russia, Erdogan has to push back on the Syrian forces that are maligning ethnic Turkmen in Northern Syria.  Even more so, Erdogan has to show that he is still viable.  Bombing Syria and taking the Northern territory is the surest way to do that.  Of course it could very well ignite a conflict far more destructive throughout the entire region.


Israel Behind the News [Dec 6,2015]

Unprecedented: Supreme Court authorized remand extension in absence of minor detainee

The GSS Interrogated Detainees Relatives

The ongoing usage of court orders to effectively silence young Israelis by keeping them in jail without charges is getting out of hand. The GSS (General Security Services) Jewish Division has a history of creating smoke when there is no way to make an actual fire.  With thin evidence, clear alibis, the GSS would rather sow division and accusation than follow normative rules of law. Essentially the GSS is a leftover dinosaur from days gone by, but is now used as a political tool by the regime.

Netanyahu: The other side needs to decide if they want peace

Netanyahu’s clear push back against John Kerry’s remarks signals something much deeper than typical bravado. in the waning influence of Western Europe and the USA on the Middle East, Kerry’s remarks almost seem like nonsense. Israel’s position as it stands in the world is far stronger than Kerry would have everyone believe. Netanyahu knows most Israeli’s are behind on these issues.

Ya’alon: US is ceding leadership in Mideast to Russia, Iran

Despite Yaalon’s poor handling of security inside the territories and his propensity for anti-settler remarks, he is right on the money in the above respect.  The USA is ceding ground to Russia in the Middle East and although there is a tacit agreement between Putin and Bibi, it is not at all clear where all of this will end up. Unlike Bibi and others, who are comfortable moving East, Yaalon’s old guard view is nervous about the prospect of a Middle East without American involvement.

Israel Behind the News [11.29.2015]

Here are some of the leading headlines today in Israel:

The Israel Rising take: When the Prime Minister announces work on the long awaited Jewish State Law bill two questions come to mind? Why is he announcing this now and what does Israel need a Jewish State Law for? The PM always announces “right wing” statements when he feels pushed back by his own camp.  Bibi believes in keeping the situation under management instead of finding solutions to challenges. His coalition has been shaky from the beginning and announcements like working on the Jewish State Law will keep those ministers that are to his right from bolting the coalition next time there is a crisis.

When the government denies transferring acres to Palestinians you can rest assured it had been on the table.  The government will not transfer it because the coalition will be finished. Area C is rightfully part of Israel even according to the Oslo accords.  transferring more land will not solve the conflict but rather give a prize to terror. Why a leak now?  Like anything else in Israel, the opposition and the Arabs will try to trick the right into crashing the coalition due to emotions rather than at an opportune time.

Yaalon’s has tried to keep a lid on a full scale take down of the PA terror entity in Judea and Samaria due to a couple of considerations.  The first is that he really doesn’t believe in our right to these areas other than for strategic reasons. The second is that wit all the chaos surrounding Israel, the IDF needs to be focused on the more “dangerous” geopolitical situation. Lastly, Yaalon is worried about a backlash te USA state department and would like to keep up his good relations with America. The above three points are keeping Jews in harms way.



Jihad and the Darkside

Shai and I discuss the current security changes in Judea and Samaria.  At the heart of the security situation is the fact that the government is not ready to fight Jihad at its core and that is with expelling those who are pushing violence.

We also cover the growing clash between Turkey and Russia and its broader context within the global arena and the conflict’s spiritual roots.

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