If Hillary Wins There Will Be War With Russia and If Donald Wins There Will Be War With Soros

As the first election results are set to be released, it is clear that the two candidates stand far apart on major issues.

Hillary Clinton has not shied away from sharp rhetoric when it comes to Russia’s Putin.  She has just about blamed him for most of the world’s troubles.  She has made it clear she will push for a no-fly zone in Syria which would bring the USA and Russia into direct conflict.

Putin is watching the election closely and will react very differently if Hillary wins.  One thing is for certain, Hillary has just about guaranteed that Putin will become enemy number one during her Presidency. If you think fighting a direct war with a fellow nuclear power is a good idea make sure to vote for Hillary Clinton.

As far as Donald Trump, his war is against the Wall Street backed elites.  He has tremendous disdain for people like George Soros who Trump believes has his hand in undermining the very fabric of the USA.  Trump has made it clear that his war begins in DC and Wall Street. If you want to drain the swamp and reset America, vote Trump.



Can Bibi Netanyahu and Vladamir Putin Save Kurdistan from the new Sultan of Turkey?

Bibi Netanyahu made waves last year when he came out in support of an independent Kurdistan. It really should not have been a surprise to observers as Israel has been a covert supporter of the Kurdish independence movement since its early days. Not only does Israel’s military supply the Peshmerga with weapons and training, the government has been buying Kurdish oil through back channels.

All of this has worked well for both sides as the Kurds have needed the training and money and Israel has needed a reliable partner on the ground to push back on ISIS, block Iran, and cause problems for Erdogan.  Now that Erdogan has used the coup, staged or real to complete his takeover of Turkish democratic institutions, the question for observers is which domestic constituent is his first target?


None of this should be a surprise.  Erdogan has scapegoated the Kurds for years.  True there are militant factions who would like to gain independence (rightfully so) but remember there are 10 million Kurds in Turkey alone and they are the majority in some Southern regions.  Erdogan will  attempt to settle the score and cement his rule by wiping the Kurdish people off the map. Turkey has done this before, over 100 years ago by killing millions of Armenians.


There are really only two leaders that can throw a monkey wrench in Erdogan’s plans: Bibi Netanyahu and Vladimir Putin.  Both of these leaders have not only warmed to each other, but have negative experiences with Erdogan.  Both of them were willing to bury the hatchet before the weekend for the sake of economics and stability, but dealing with a newly minted “Sultan” should change their minds.  With the Kurds being a moderating force and the only group proven successfully rule their region within the former Iraq and Syria, it is in both Putin and Netanyahu’s interests to stop Erdogan in his tracks.


How Can they Do This?

The first thing they can do is freeze rapprochement with Turkey. This may not work by itself, but it will send a message.  Next they need to arm the Kurds in Northern Iraq and Syria with modern weapons and provide air cover in case Turkey decides to attack them in those areas.  Lastly, they need to begin to provide covert assistance to Kurdish groups to defend themselves from Turkey’s now authoritarian ruler.

If Putin and Netanyahu do this, they will be credited in preventing a massive genocide and redrawing the map of the Middle East for the foreseeable future.

Cornering Israel…

With Kerry getting Obama to back off insistence on Assad’s ouster, the world continues its slide into geopolitical chaos.  Of course at first glance, Assad offers the kind of stability Syria needs and it was precisely trying to oust him which caused so many problems.

For the USA who is on a not so slow retreat, allowing Russia, Iran, and Syria to provide stability to the region seems logical.  The problem with this sort of stability is that Israel’s arch enemies will maneuver themselves into strategic positions along side the Jewish state.  Assad might bring stability, but that means Israel will be under serious threat.

Can Russia be Trusted?

I have written extensively on the fact that Russia does not want to upset the stability in the countries that are in fact most stable. It is clear Putin is not trying to put us into a tight spot, but he has some conflicting partnerships: Assad, Iran, and Israel. It is true the deconfliction mechanism lets us destroy heavy arms bound for Hezbollah, but the idea that Assad’s permanence means Iran gets to stick around is not something any of us want to see.

The prevailing thought is that Putin will hold the Ayatollahs on a short leash.  There is something to this, but the prospects of an emboldened Iran are not good.

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We Are Expendable

At the end of the day, the world is search of some sort of order. It is true we are light in a dark region, but nations can be erratic in times of chaos. Right now the transition is only beginning and Israel is doing its best to hedge its bets on who will come out on top.  It is clear Russia makes a great case on why we should move into their orbit, but if they cannot reign in Iran then it may be far more dangerous than going it alone.

Some Positive Developments

Despite many of the troubling signs flowing from the chaos in the Middle East, Israel’s ability to have a working relationship with Russia and covertly helping the Kurds to move their oil show we have some versatility in grappling with the complex challenge we find ourselves in.  By rolling with the changes and making partnerships based on strategic value, Israel can make it through one of the most chaotic times the Middle East has seen.

The Russians Are Coming

Experts seem to agree that the world will look back at these years as something of a great transition. The question many people have is from what kind of vantage point will we be looked back upon.  The lightning fast pace of events in Syria and the rest of our region attest to a world that is rapidly transforming once again into a multi-polar one.

With Russia’s entrance into the Syrian war on September 30th of this year, the world closed the door on what had been known as the post cold war world. From 1991 until this year the USA ruled the Middle East by itself.  The Russians were nowhere to be found and now, in a flash they seem to be everywhere.

With the above in mind and Russia’s tactical partnership with Iran, it has been surprising to many observers that Israel and Russia are not only talking and implementing a deconfliction mechanism, but seem to be furthering their partnership in relation to Syria. After all, Iran has sworn itself to Israel’s destruction and is actively using the mayhem in Syria as well as Russian air coverage to move their forces closer to Israel’s border. So why such an open working relationship with Putin’s Russia?


Russian Detente With Iran is Just Tactical

Many analysts believe that Russia, in the long term, has no interest in allowing Iran to take over the Middle East.  Russia views its relationship with Iran as a tactical necessity to prop up Assad and destroy Sunni radicals. After this task is done, the experts in this particular camp believe their paths will diverge.  

If this is so, then logic lends itself to believe Putin wants relationships and long term strategic partnerships with countries that are not only stable, but also share similar security and economic outlooks with himself, and yet will not step in his way. Israel is one of these countries.


“Israel is a Special State to Us”

In fact Putin has stated in the past his reverence for the Jewish State and his belief that it is a natural ally of his, as he considers it a special state. This is due to the 1.5 million Russians that live in Israel.  

A deeper analysis of early Zionism shows that despite the fact that Herzl is very much seen as the father of modern Zionism, the successors and thought leaders that drove the movement were really from Eastern Europe and Russia.  Their focus was on creating a Jewish National Movement within the confines of Europe and Russia, with a link to the Land of Israel. The movement, however, would push Jewish national rights within the Russian Empire. This, of course, didn’t get far as the ascendency of the Soviet Union forced these leaders to push for increased immigration to Israel.  Still, the Russian linkage to Zionism shouldn’t be forgotten, but rather be seen as a context to understanding why the current detente has more backing than an immediate need for deconfliction.

Then again, the same can be said between the millions of Christian Zionists in the West and today’s state whose rising leadership share an affinity with biblical values.


Economic Ties Between Russia Are Strong

Another fact is that Israel has a trade surplus with Russia as opposed to a deficit with the USA. In the new world of a rising East, this is meaningful to Israel’s position and future growth.  It is no secret Israel is looking East for new partners in China and India.  Russia’s trade with Israel is already very strong and will continue to grow.


Strategic Versus Tactical

As mentioned above, the maneuvers Russia is making in Syria and the broader region seem to stand in the way of Israel’s growing strength and influence.  

Yet, if one places Syria and Iran in only a short term tactical light, a strategic partnership between Israel and Russia makes full sense when connected to another burgeoning relationship; Kurdistan and Russia. Turkey’s aggression against the Kurds and funding of ISIS makes Russia, Israel, and Kurdistan natural allies against Radical Islam and an ascendant Turkey. The question remains though how much Putin and Israel can see eye to eye on the need for tamping down Putin’s tactical allies Iran and Hezbollah.



Despite some of my above assertions, we live in a world that seems to have become unhinged. We can never know which way alliances, partnerships, and working relationships will go.  

We are in a great transition period and Israel seems to be carefully moving through it.  Russia’s calculation may be different in a few days and their tactical need for Iran may outweigh the long term strategic value of partnering with Israel.  After all, Putin is a master chess player, even more than Bibi.

With that in mind, a regionally strong and globally ascendant Israel should not run to embrace a looming Russian Bear just yet. Especially a Russia that is purely pragmatic and whose leaders do not share the biblical values that have made Israel function beyond the realm of pragmatism. These values in many ways have made the dream of an Israel that went from persecuted to global leader a reality far more than the tactical pragmatism of Putin. We have to remember that as much as we want to be accepted by a strong Russia, Putin himself lives in a world of tactics and tactics can change if Mother Russia needs them to. In other words an alliance with Russia will only happen if it is good for Russia and its length will only last if it is good for Russia.

With this in mind it could very well be that the best course of action is to approach our new topsy turvy world with one giant deconfliction mechanism. Let the chips fall where they may, the roller coaster ride has only just begun.