Tag: Russia

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Syrian and Russian Offensive on Daraa Resumes, Bringing Israel Into Iran’s Crosshairs

The Russian backed Syrian offensive resumed today after a 48 hour ceasefire.  Syrian government troops have already taken over  various neighborhoods in Daraa, putting pressure on the American backed Free Syrian Army (FSA). It was reported that the FSA was given an ultimatum on Saturday to pull back.  They didn’t so bombing resumed.

Daraa is crucial for a few reasons.  If it falls entirely to the Syrian government, the Syrian Rebels and US led coalition will split in half.  Even more dire is that the Daraa province buttresses the Golan Heights creating a corridor for Iranian militia to reach Israel. This will leave Israeli backed militia to fend off the more highly trained Iranians.

With the Wall Street Journal article making waves by connecting Israel’s humanitarian help to the strength of the Syrian rebels fighting the Assad regime, the above map makes it clear why the Israeli government feels it necessary to be bolstering these forces. Unlike the Lebanese Civil War, when Israel actually entered into the South of the country, the Netanyahu government would rather create a friendly buffer zone using humanitarian needs as a reason for helping the rebels.  The situation though, may be deteriorating and require the IDF to enter the fray to hold off the Iranians from reaching their border.

If Daraa falls the US and Israel will have to make a decision to directly enter the war or build up a workable containment strategy.  The next few days of the Daraa offensive will be crucial in determining the scope of both nations’ involvement.

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SYRIA ON THE BRINK: Russia Will Target US Airplanes in Syria

In response to the downing of a Syrian warplane by US forces yesterday, the Russian Defense Ministry said it will treat U.S.-led coalition planes in Syria, west of the Euphrates River, as targets.

Furthermore, Russia said it is suspending coordination with the United States in Syria. This coordination has kept the two super powers from direct conflict since 2015.

Is Direct Conflict Coming?

In one word, yes.  Without the deconfliction deal the chances of a direct conflict between the US and Russia is much higher.  Look for Putin to take steps in aiding the Syrian regime against US forces in Eastern Syria.

With a deconfliction agreement finished between the US and Russia, chances are Putin will scrap his deal with Israel.  This imperils the ability for Israel to defend itself in the Galilee and Golan.

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Are Post ISIS Alliances Already Taking Shape?

As the Raqqa operation gets underway, with the SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) ploughing forward into the “capital” of ISIS, the terror group’s leaders and fighters are said to have already travelled to safe havens along the middle Euphrates.  With the American backed SDF bogged down in strett to street fighting, Iranian paramilitary units are pouring in from where they helped fight to free Mosul to Eastern Syria to destroy the heads of ISIS.

This struggle for land as ISIS collapses is forming the beginnings of regional boundaries that in essence brand new lines between ethnic units as well as defined frontiers of regional alliances.

Rising up from the rubble of ISIS are two clearly definied groupings.

The first consists of Russia, Iran, Syria (Assad), Turkey, and Qatar.  None of these countries trust eachother, but work together under a common interest in battling back America as well as seeking a piece of what they see as a rising Middle Eastern hegemony.

The second group is made up of the United States, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, UAE, Jordan, Egypt, Kurds and Israel.  This grouping sees the first group as an existential threat and has been conjoled to work together by the Trump administration.

With the fall of ISIS a matter of weeks, the real battle will come after. Iran has used the chaos to reach to the Israeli border.  They have shown the ability to capitalize on the weaknesses of their enemies. Besides Iran, Hezbollah can now turn its sites on Israel.

The Middle Eastern alliances now taking shape even before the last of the caliphate are buried not only put Iran im the drivers seat, but increase the likelihood of war sooner rather than later.  The Syckes-Picot agreement, the document based colonialist and neo-colonialist pinciples set in motion by France and Germany is becoming irrelevant as a new set of states and mini states take shape.

As the chaos spreads throughout the region and beyond, the Saudis backed by Israeli tehnology will attempt to push back on the Shiite gains in order to create a buffer between the Kingdom and its enemies. The Kurds backed covertly by Israel and overtly by America will be encouraged to push forward in order to stabilize Northern Syria and Iraq and break the link between a power hungry Turkey and their allies in Qatar.

Be prepared the Great Game of the Middle East is about to begin. It could very well be far more destructive than the havoc ISIS has caused.

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Will Iran Attack Israel After the Saudi Move Against Qatar?

The Saudi led move against Qatar has caught everyone in the region by surprise, especially Iran.  The Mullahs in Tehran have always regarded the Saudis as a paper tiger.  The move against Qatar, seemingly backed by the Trump administration changes that assumption.  Furthermore, Saudi Arabia’s call to freeze out Hamas is a serious about face for the Kingdom.  The Iranians know Trump means business.  The growing Sunni alliance along with faster than assumed growth in ties between this alliance and Israel spells trouble for Iran.

With Qatar being isolated (before the Iranian regime could make a move to co-opt it), a reaction is now needed to push back on the American backed Sunni alliance.  Given the US firepower in the Persian Gulf, the likely target for retaliation to create instability is Israel. Iran and their Shiite proxy Hezbollah have a far stronger foothold and vantage point on the Israeli border than the Iranians do in the Gulf.  This, along with Russian firepower and air superiority over Northern Israel, make a strike on Israel that much more probable.

Any military attack on Israel by the Iranians would see Israel fend for itself due to the proximity of Russian troops.  The Trump administration would not risk a direct conflict with Russia over Iran at least at this point.

Although the Saudis felt Qatar’s isolation was necessary to halt an advancing Iran, the next play is in Tehran’s court and the fallout could very well be Israel’s alone. With Turkey, Iran, and Russia solidifying their alliance against the West’s Sunni proxies, the summer of 2017 could very promise to be the breakout of the ultimate Middle Eastern war the world has been trying to avoid.

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While North Korea Draws the World’s Attention, Iran Closes in on Israel

With the Russian, Chinese, and American armed forces now converging on North Korea, another front long thought of as the probable catalyst for a potential world war has seemingly grown quiet. Or has it?

While most of the world awaits some sort of climax to the North Korean standoff, there is something precarious growing around Israel’s Northern border.  The Russians have used the North Korean crisis to allow the Iranians and Hezbollah to tighten their grip on Israel’s Golan border. It is no accident that while everyone is focused on staving off a nuclear war on the Korean peninsula, the Turks, Russians, and Iranians have agreed to create safe-zones in Syria.

The Southern most safe zone buttresses the Golan heights allowing for Iranian troops to reach Israeli territory unhindered. Furthermore the agreement which was struck in Kazakhstan last week ensures that US air coverage cannot fly over these zones.  Israel is now essentially on its own.

As we reported in April, the long known alliance between North Korea and Iran has become more apparent as President Trump seems intent on stopping the North Korean regime from creating havoc in Asia. When North Korea starts, Iran always follows.  With the bellicose statements of Kim Jong-un growing more war like by the day there is a distinct possibility, that this has been a pre-planned diversion.  After all Iran seems has been keeping the North Korean economy afloat through the buying of its nuclear technology.  The Obama administration’s cash infusion into Iran has been moved over to North Korea in order to make sure both programs develop without hindrance.

The noose is tightening with Russian approval around Israel.  Putin of course wants Israel to beg for his protection.  Israel seems intent on going it alone. After Trump’s trip to the Middle East expect the shoe to drop. When Trump moves to take out Kim Jong-un, Israel will be on its own.