Tag: Russia

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Is the Russian Turkish War About to Start?

After weeks of staying out of the news, Turkey has finally found a way back into the international headlines. Speculation is rising that Turkey is planning to possibly send troops into Syria.  TASS reports, “Turkey has denied the Russian Federation an observation flight over its territory that was to be held within the framework of the Open Skies Treaty, a senior Russian Defense Ministry official said Wednesday.”

Two possibilities lie behind the Turkish move. Either, Turkey is really preparing a ground invasion of Northern Syria in order to protect their Turkmen allies or they want to deny Moscow the ability to see the relationship between Turkish forces and ISIS.

“The route supposed, among other things, observation of areas adjacent to the Syrian border and airfields where NATO aircraft are concentrated. But after the arrival of the Russian mission in Turkey and the announcement of the planned route of the observation flight, the Turkish military denied the opportunity to conduct it citing an instruction from Turkey’s Foreign Ministry,” said Sergey Ryzhkov, chief of the ministry’s department for control of implementation of treaties.

“In this way, as a result of violations of the requirements of the Treaty and unconstructive actions on the part of Turkey, a dangerous precedent was created of an uncontrolled military activity of an Open Skies Treaty member state,” Ryzhkov said.

Although a few months ago a ground invasion of Turkish forces into Syria seemed outrageous, now no one seems to be laughing.  Erdogan is cornered.  Russia doesn’t sell gas to Turkey and Erdogan cannot seem to reach  a final rapprochement with Israel. Without affordable energy and increasing isolation to the North, North East, and the South, Erdogan must make a move. A move South will spark a war.  A Russian Turkish war could spiral out of control and draw in most of the region if not other world powers.

Erdogan Toprak, opposition member in Turkey has lent wait to the rising possibility that Turkey would send troops over the border. “The presence Hulusi Akar, Chief of the General Staff of the Turkish Armed Forces, among the people accompanying Davutoglu to Riyadh, as well as a group photograph featuring Akar posing together with a top Saudi official while wearing army fatigues and boots, sends a clear message: the Turkish Armed Forces are ready to take the lead role in a possible ground military action in Syria,” notes Toprak.

Essentially, the war between the Sunni’s and Shiites is about to be raised a few notches.

What Should Israel Do?

Stay out of it.  There are no good sides in this war.  Israel would be wise in keeping neutral, because there is no one that would be preferable. In a sense, Israel is watching two boxers go add it for 10 rounds, only to both fall to the floor. By staying out of the conflict, Israel can pick up the pieces after the conflict is finished.

 

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The Great Unwinding Has Begun

[dropcap]D[/dropcap]espite the US Treasury’s best market manipulation, which may or may not save US Stocks for the day, the inevitable stomach turning feeling that the World is once again out of control is unmistakably in the air. There has been a subtle feeling that this could be the reality for months now and as Iran’s oil came into the global market, crude’s collapse has been assured. With oil down below $27 a barrel, the market rout that has been underway since the first of January will assuredly continue.

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Courtesy Bloomberg

In all honesty, the global recovery since 2008 has not really been a recovery.  Propped up by cheap credit and a farce of a fracking and shale industry as well the emerging markets, which have been more fictional than fact, the economy should have given way a long time ago.  Humans like to live in a bubble. So long as there has been available credit the false economy could continue lying.

Keynesian Economics is Bringing Everything Else Down

The game that has been played by the central bankers for the last few decades has reached the end.  Over manipulation of the markets which has flowed from the statist policies rooted in Keynesian Economics has warped the global economy.  This unraveling is picking up pace and threatens to derail the global economy.

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Keynesian Economics never made much sense. The idea that central banks could increase deficit spending to ensure economic growth in times of stagnation would eventually be over used. The only surprise is that is has taken this long for a real decoupling to begin.

From Economic Collapse to War

One thing is certain. When global economic stresses increase to an unacceptable level, geopolitical friction begin to stir. Russia cannot sustain itself with oil as low as it is.  Neither can the Arab nations or Iran.

With no reason to keep the guns holstered expect Russia and Iran to be on the move. After all, the best way to raise oil prices is war. If there is war then why not make the most of it and restore some lost territory in Ukraine and other areas Mother Russia once had.

For Israel’s part, the economic level of most of its citizens have always been borderline poverty.  If the tech bubble bursts the government will have to instill emergency measure.  Of course, Israel has always functioned on a different wavelength and there is no reason to assume it won’t do so this time as well. Of course if there is real war, all bets are off.

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Can Russia Be Trusted?

The deconfliction mechanism that had been hailed as a stroke of geopolitical genius from the brain of Bibi Netanyahu seems to be a double edge sword. It is a sour pill that keeps on getting worse.  Especially now that Hezbollah is exploiting the agreement to prepare a forward attack on Israel’s North. It is true that Russia would prefer not to have an Israel that feels so threatened it destabilizes the Levant, but like I have insisted for a while, Putin is far more a tactical player when dealing opposing forces he wants to utilize in his broader strategy.

For Putin those that deserve his help are those that perform.  Israel will have to deal with an Iranian backed militia with free reign to attack, while delicately placating the Russian Bear who seems to be bending the rules of the deconfliction mechanism each week.

Trusting Putin is Mistake

The Israeli government has consistently made the same mistake throughout the decades.  It struggles to find players it feels it can put its trust in and by providing more assistance than anyone else it believes there will be reciprocity.

During the Cold War this strategy worked, simply because the tectonic plates of geopolitics demanded that it worked, but now in a multipolar world, putting trust in one country or another without strong leverage is a mistake.

Although Putin is a strong man, Israel is just another piece on his chessboard. Nothing should prove this more than Putin forcing us into a corner through niceties while Hezbollah and Iran have been able to build up on Israel’s borders.  It’s true Putin has allowed the Israeli Air force to attack arms convoys heading to Hezbollah. It is striking that the IAF did not attack in the latest skirmish, but rather Israel resorted to pounding the area with artillery.  This can only mean one thing.  Russia is holding Israel back from taking clear steps against Hezbollah.

Trust Only in G-d

Israel’s government needs to rely only on themselves and their faith in the Almighty  All else will fall into place.  The miracles that accompanied the Jewish people back to their Land are clear. If the Nation will increase their belief and trust in the Almighty as they did in the past then nothing will harm them.  Unfortunately the government seems to only mention themselves in reference to the situation without attribution to a higher power.

In the coming months the situation will continue to deteriorate. The question is who will stand up and lead Israel to victory.

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Iran and Saudi Arabia to the Death

The news on most geopolitical analysts minds is whether Iran will back up their harsh verbal response to Saudi Arabia’s beheading of a Shiite Sheik with something more militaristic. At the end of the day, Iran has a small window of time to put the squeeze on Saudi Arabia. Right now, Russia shields Iran from any backlash thrown at them if they choose to be more aggressive. Mix in Obama’s dismal mideast policy, the ingredients are there for Iran to make a move.

Saudi Arabia also has a short time frame to flex their muscles. Iran is building a superior ballistic missile program and Saudi Arabia cannot afford to let the Persians stabilize themselves and grow into a true regional super power.

This Year is it

The next four to six months are key as Sunni Islam is on the defensive against a resurgent Shiite Crescent backed by Russian firepower.  Each side will grow more bellicose both in verbiage and actual actions taken. Already, Iranians stormed the Saudi Embassy in Tehran.  Expect much more.

Next Actions

Iran will attempt to foment organic uprisings in the gulf allies of Saudi Arabia.  They will also stir trouble in the Shiite dominated Saudi Southeast and once again in Yemen. Saudi Arabia will continue to financially back ISIS and other groups. All of these steps seem to be leading to a head on collision will have an explosive and devastating effect on the region and quite possibly the whole world.

The Israel Factor

So how does this affect Israel? With the government seemingly dozzy with the growing intifada, the real danger is are threats piling up on the border. Although Saudi Arabia and Israel are not freind in the slightest, in terms of Iran they are tactically ready to work together.  Look for more intelligence sharing as well as overt military maneuvers to increase. If there is a move towards open war between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Israel may take direct action against Iran, that is if they don’t have their own flank to defend.

 

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Israel Behind the News [Dec 27, 2015]

Israel strikes Hezbollah targets in Syria

The deconfliction mechanism seems to be in effect as Israel continues to be aloud to attack Hezbollah with impunity. As we have noted before, this serves Russia’s interests by keeping Iran and its client groups in check. The question remains though, at what juncture does this sort of thing get in the way of Putin’s Syria strategy or what happens if the deconfliction mechanism fails?

ISIS Leader directly threatens Israel

Although Russia is destroying ISIS throughout Syria, the leader of the Caliphate El-Baghdadi saw the need to reassert himself into the geopolitical situation by threatening Israel.  Don’t expect direct attacks yet, but using Israel to rally Jihadists from around the world is a clever strategy.  It also means that those who oppose El-Baghdadi are in support of Israel.

Yehuda Glick Next in Line for Likud in Knesset

Yehuda Glick, one of the leading Temple Mount activists is surprisingly set yo enter the Knesset if one more Likud member leaves or is forced to resign.  This will put Jewish prayer rights on the mount center stage in the Knesset, something the Prime Minister fears, but can do very little about.