Tag: Putin

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Rex Tillerson, Trump’s Pick for Secretary of State Offers a Very Different Sort of Foreign Policy

Donald Trump is a completely different sort of president-elect and by looking at who he has picked for his cabinet so far, he is going to be very different sort of president.  The latest rumors that seem to be much more than rumors is that Rex Tillerson, the 64 year old CEO of Exxon Mobile will be the next US Secretary of State with John Bolton as his deputy in charge of day to day affairs. In order to understand the Trump team’s vision for America’s foreign policy it is important to understand Tillerson’s background and connections.

Here is a brief overview of Rex Tillerson:

  • He is a 64 year old native of Wichita falls, Texas
  • CEO of Exxon Mobile
  • Owns 2.5 million shares of Exxon Mobile
  • Deep Connections to Putin’s Russia through his business dealings
  • Connections to over 50 heads of state by way of Exxon
  • Against sanctions on Russia

Although the following video is NBC/MSNBC/MSM it gives a pretty good overview:

With the Tillerson pick, Trump is reformulating foreign policy by acknowledging that Russia is a world power and is here to stay. This also admits that the US as uni-polar leader is a concept never became actual reality. Trump clearly sees spheres of influence and in many ways this was the way the world was prior to World Wars One and Two. By picking a business leaders that has extensive global business experience, Trump gains connections with the global community without the baggage of Foggy Bottom.

Trump likes winners, especially in business.  If someone is successful it means they can be trusted to do a good job.  We see this in his deference to military generals to fill key defense positons or which countries he admires as we see with his rock solid support of Israel versus the Arab states.  He admires Putin, not because he is a Putin puppet, but because he sees Putin as a successful leader.  Given Trump’s view of the world as broken down into good and evil with the muslim world falling into the latter, Putin makes sense as a erstwhile ally in the West’s fight aginst radical Islam. This is not dissimilar to Roosevelt’s working relationship with Stalin in fighting Nazi Germany and let’s remember Putin is no Stalin.

Tillerson brings instant clout to Trump’s administration and a direct connection to Putin, which Trump needs if he is going to reset global politics.  Expect Europe to become very jittery over this as the EU continues to roil over the continent wide populist movement.

What About Israel?

Not much is known about Rex Tillerson’s views on Israel, but pacifying Putin in a way that he sees Iran as a problem for doing relations with the USA, will be a good thing for breaking the growing stranglehold of Syria, Iran, and Hezbollah around Israel. The fact that the rest of the Trump appointees, including Deputy Secretary of State John Bolton see the Iran deal as a major flaw, it is probable that Tillerson does as well.  Clearly the Trump administration beleives that the best way to break Iran is to give Putin a deal he can’t refuse in order for the Kremlin to cut the Ayatollahs loose.

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Is Turkey Using Russia to Head off a Clash with Donald Trump?

With one little sentence declared by Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim, there is now the potential to change many prime players and sides in the Syrian ongoing crisis/war.  While on his first visit to Russia, Yildrim was  quoted yesterday as saying both countries “understand each other better than before.”  Can the end of this arab bloodshed be on the horizon?  As we know, Turkey has been a staunch critic of Assad since the start of the uprising in Syria.

Turkey and Russia have also been backing opposing sides in the Syrian conflict for a long time.  Ankara has been combating ISIS and Syrian Kurdish forces while Russia has backed the Syrian regime dating back to even Assad’s father, well over 50 years ago. Turkey and Mother Russia have not exactly been the “best of friends” especially after the downing of a Russian Su – 24 bomber last year.  

So why is it that the two countries getting closer together? Could it be that Turkey wants to collaborate with Putin instead of Donald? More than likely, Turkey is vying for leverage with NATO and its own role in the coalition against ISIS and a post liberated Mosul.  By visiting Russia now before Donald Trump takes over, Turkey is hoping to gain bargaining power in the unfolding Middle East. This is especially important as it has become clear that it was Turkey’s hand behind the creation and growth of ISIS.  This is a fact that Donald Trump knows all too well.

As Trump gets ready to put strength behind Israel as its most trusted ally in the region, Islamist Erdogan and the Turkish government is struggling to find meaning in a reion soon to be carved up by the USA and Russia.

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WAR EXPANDS: Putin Backed Rebels in Eastern Ukraine Continue to Attack NATO Trained Troops

Rebel fighters in the Lugnask and Donetsk regions have continued their Russian backed offense against Kiev backed military positions in an attempt to push back the NATO backed government out of culturally heavy Russian regions.

Updates in the Ukrainian/Russian conflict over the last 24 hours:

  • Locals and separatists have fired on Ukrainian military positions in Donbass 20 times.
  • In the Mariupol sector Russian-separatist forces fired 120-mm mortar shells on Chermalyk and Shyrokyne. While In Krasnohorivka rebels fired 82-mm mortar shells.
  • In Novotroyitske government forces were fired on by sharpshooters.
  • Rebels attacked Lebedynske, Slavne and Pavlopil with grenade launchers.
  • In Donetsk rebels and locals fired on Vodiane using 152 and 122 mm artillery.
  • Verkhniotoretske was shelled by 120 and 82 mm mortars.
  • Avdiyivka and Luhanske were attacked by rebels using infantry fighting vehicles, grenade launchers, heavy machine guns and small arms.

Next steps for Putin and Ukraine

As the EU establishment continues to be rocked by growing populism, Putin has grown far less restrained in holding back rebels in Eastern Ukraine.  He has increased their offensives against the NATO trained Ukrainian army with an attempt to carve an area that is loyal to Moscow.  So far the chaos he has brought the Ukraine has begin to be effective.  For its part NATO continues to rush troops to the Baltic member states in a weak reaction to Putin’s news push.

A Wider War

By expanding operations in Ukraine and putting ballistic Iskander missiles in Kalingrad, Putin is our matching the directionless NATO.  With a matter of weeks left before Donald Trump becomes America’s 45th President, Russia and NATO are flirting with a much wider war that threatens to engulf the Middle East and Europe.

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HIGH-STAKES GAME OVER SYRIA AS KHAMENEI-PUTIN AXIS ADVANCES

The news out of Syria this week is, as usual, complex—and seemingly contradictory.

On the one hand, the Russian-Syrian-Iranian-Hizballah alliance appeared to have overcome rebel resistance in Aleppo—a major turning point that would shift the war’s momentum in the alliance’s favor.

On the other hand, Arab and other media reported that on Wednesday the Israeli air force struck a Syrian weapons depot west of Damascus and a weapons convoy headed for Hizballah in Lebanon.

As of Thursday evening there had been no retaliation against Israel, and Israeli analysts generally saw a retaliation as unlikely.

Media outside of Israel have, of course, often reported in the past on Israeli airstrikes—usually against Hizballah-bound weaponry—in Syria.

Israel’s policy has been to keep mum, neither denying nor confirming the reports. Last April, though, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu acknowledged that Israel had carried out “dozens” of strikes in Syria against “game-changing weaponry” for Hizballah.

It’s no secret that, since the 2006 war between Israel and Hizballah in Lebanon, Hizballah has massively rearmed and now harbors tens of thousands of missiles. But Israel regards some kinds of weapons—precision rockets, advanced antiship and antiaircraft systems—as out of bounds for the terror group.

What has changed in the Syrian arena, though, is that late last year Russia deployed its powerful S-400 radar and antiaircraft system there. It covers Syria, Lebanon, and much of Israel and can track Israel’s northern airspace.

Since then there have been far fewer reported Israeli airstrikes in Syria. In one of them, last September, the outcome seemed ominous when Syria—not a military match for Israel by itself, but backed by Russia and Iran—fired missiles at two Israeli aircraft.

Why, then, the Israeli strike this week? Why no military response this time?

One conjecture: the weapons Israel struck in the Syrian depot and in the convoy would have been particularly unacceptable weapons in Hizballah’s hands.

Another conjecture: the much-touted Israeli-Russian coordination, whereby Netanyahu and Russian president Vladimir Putin are said to have worked out arrangements to avoid clashes, is still operative.

Other possible mitigating factors are that Israel reportedly hit the targets from Lebanese, not Syrian, airspace, and that no Syrian or Hizballah fighters appear to have been killed.

The larger question: what happens if Syria’s Assad and his backers have indeed turned the tide and will be looking to keep extending their control over Syrian territory?

Of interest here are remarks to the Algemeiner website by Yossi Kuperwasser, who has held major positions in Israel’s Military Intelligence.

Kuperwasser, as the site paraphrases it, says that

Iran is stepping up the speed at which it is arming its proxies in the region due to its fear that after Donald Trump assumes the US presidency in January, its room to maneuver in Syria will be greatly hampered….

And regarding Israel and Russia, in Kuperwasser’s own words:

There is a mutual understanding of each other’s interests. Though Russia and Iran are backing Hezbollah combat rebel forces fighting against the Assad regime, Russia understands that Israel cannot allow weapons from Hezbollah in Syria to be moved to Lebanon, where they will be aimed at the Jewish state.

How long can this relatively tolerable—for Israel—situation continue?

Indications are that its days may be numbered. Even if Putin’s strategic goals are not identical to those of his allies—he is clearly not a Shiite ideologue like the Iranians and Hizballah or a Shiite-aligned Arab like Assad—his steps have been increasingly brazen.

Along with the transfer of major weapon systems to Syria, and an aircraft carrier to its coast, they include major weapons sales to Iran, joint provision with Iran of weapons to Iran’s Houthi proxies in Yemen, and reports of Russian aid to Iranian-backed Shiite militias in Iraq.

As Kuperwasser puts it, Israel’s most serious concern is “Iran’s increasing territorial contiguity—crossing Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.”

For the incoming Trump administration, stemming this tide should be an urgent priority. Whatever Putin’s real motive, he is helping create a situation of unacceptable danger to Israel and a Middle East bifurcated between Shiite and Sunni blocs—a recipe for ongoing war and explosive instability.

Originally Published on FrontpageMag

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Ukraine Fires Missiles on Russian Border, Will Putin Respond?

Despite Russian threats, NATO backed Ukraine went ahead with missile tests near Russian controlled Crimea on Thursday and Friday.

“No one will stop us,” Western backed Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko tweeted. “We will be acting in the interests of the people of Ukraine!”

Although Ukraine insists that none of the missiles have landed within 30km of Russian controlled Crimea, Russia issued serious warnings to Ukraine before the missile test.

It was reported, “Unnamed sources in Ukraine have told local Ukrainian newspapers that they received a letter from Russia’s Defense Ministry effectively threatening Ukraine with a direct military response if Ukraine goes through with its planned missile test.”

With the Donbass reagion spiralling out of controll as Russian backed Ukrainians threaten an all out revolt against Kiev, Russian threats over the missile test put the ball back in Putin’s court.

With NATO pushing against Russia’s borders, it would seem unlikely that Putin will leave the latest provocation unanswered.  The only question is when and what exactly will be his response.

In the past Putin has opted for causing problems elsewhere in the globe such as Syria, but it seems more than likely that the focus in terms of a direct response will be the Donbass. In the coming days Russia will pour more weapons and support into the region in hopes the break away actually turns into a reality.

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War Drums: The Fire Intifada is Only the Beginning, Hezbollah is Next

As more fires are set around Israel and the nation’s emergency response is stretched to its max, the next phase in what is fast becoming and orchestrated series of events is likely to happen. It has been understood for a while now that Hezbollah and their Iranian sponsors would launch counter measures in Northern Israel.  With Trump set to take over in a matter of weeks and Putin trying to keep balance between Israel and Iran, the window of opportunity for an actual attack is closing.

Using the fires to cripple Israeli infrastructure, especially in Haifa where large chemical plants exist is a set up for what Iran and Hezbollah plans to do next.  Expect Hezbollah infiltrators with the help of the same groups that are setting fires to penetrate Israel’s Northern border and carve out an area.  Reaction will be swift from Israel, but it will spark a far wider conflict in the waining days of Obama’s presidency.  Given Putin’s role behind the scenes he maybe forced to play peacemaker.

The goal is not to win, but to bring Israel to its knees.  So far Israel’s enemies are winning.

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Russia Advances Missiles Into the Heart of Europe as NATO Tensions Rise

If people thought the tension that has been growing between NATO and Russia would begin to fizzle once Donald Trump won the election think again.  In a move that threatens to destablize Eastern Europe, Russia’s President Putin has moved S-400 surface-to-air missiles and nuclear-capable Iskander ballistic missiles to Kaliningrad. Kalingrad is part of Russia that is detatched from the rest of Russia.  With the Baltic Sea to its north it shares borders with Poland and Lithuania.

A Google Map shows the location of Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave (red marker), sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania on the Baltic Sea coast. GOOGLE MAPS

With NATO growing both adventurous in moving forces close to the Russian border as well as on edge over Trump’s disregard with the necessity of  NATO,  Russia was seemingly compelled to act. After all NATO’s own self preservation may lead it to do some pretty ill advised actions such as ratcheting pressure on its Eastern front. For his part, Putin’s advance is on one hand a deterrent, but on the other hand a preparation for a post Obama world where facts on the ground will have influence on what may be a very different relationship between America and Russia.

Putin himself had this to say in a documentary taped a few weeks about Ukraine and scheduled to air this week:

“Why are we reacting to NATO expansion so emotionally? We are concerned by NATO’s decision making. What should we do? We have, therefore, to take countermeasures, which means to target with our missile systems the facilities, that, in our opinion, start posing a threat to us.”

What Will NATO Do?

With Turkey threatening to bolt and deal with China, Russia moving west, and President-Elect Donald Trump looking to cut NATO free, it is no wonder the EU is considering building an army of its own.  More than likely is the direct possibility of what’s left of NATO and the EU army forming a single entity.  That being said there is tremendous financial gain, power, and prestige still found in NATO.  Don’t expect those forces to stand down as Russia reasserts its dominance.

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“We Are Coming Nineveh” Obama Must Win in Mosul or Donald Trump Will Do it For Him

Legacies are bitter weapons that plague outgoing presidents time and time again.  Barack Obama thought he had his legacy wrapped up, but then came the blue color workers and placed Donald Trump into office. With one election Obama’s legacy is in tatters and he knows it.  Despite all of that, there is one last battle Obama needs and wants to win to stave off a complete rejection of his so far disastrous foreign policy. This battle is the battle of Mosul, where ISIS is making there last stand as far as nation building is going.

Despite a bitter beginning of infighting between Shiite militias, Turkish troops, Kurdish Peshmerga, and Iraqi National forces, the operation according the Iraqi officials is beginning to move along. “We Are Coming Nineveh”  has a time limit though and that is Jan. 20th.  Right now Obama has kept the Russians out of the bombing campaign and wants to prove he doesn’t need them to finish the job.  If Mosul is not taken by inauguration day, Trump will surely bring the Russians in to crush ISIS once and for all.

Why does this matter?

Obama has staked his foreign policy at least in the waning years of his Presidency on holding off Russian expansion.  Of course Putin has bested him in Eastern Europe as well as Syria.  This means Obama must keep him out of Iraq or risk being seen as a total loser. With Mosul grinding on and 60 days until President-Elect Trump becomes President Trump, the odds are not great that the Iraqi forces will succeed.  Keep in mind ISIS could have been defeated a while ago, but each side fighting in Iraq has used the group as a pawn to offset what they see as a more mortal enemy.

This is why Trump’s approach is to ignore the game on the ground and get together with Putin and flatten ISIS and if need be others.

Jan. 20th is coming.  After that date Iraq and Operation “We Are Coming Nineveh”  are on the chopping block.

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The Coming War Maybe the Last

With a resurgent Putin and ascending China one wonders how the global structure that has existed since the end of the Cold War will continue to exist.  Most people view events through a lens of national interests mixed with political bravado.  These cross interests usually line up.  Due to this alignment we rarely have the disconnect we currently have in the West.  During the Cold War, anti-Soviet sentiment coincided with both the political and economic needs of the West’s establishment and everyday person.

No one in Washington or Brussels imagined a world where both Russia and China would reemerge as serious challengers to the West’s financial and geopolitical control, yet this is precisely what has happened. With Putin on the move in the Middle East and Eastern Europe and countries like the Philippines changing sides to China, the elite in the West have begun to panic. This is the cause of Hillary’s break with Obama’s policy when it comes to these new rising powers.

Goldman Sachs Speeches are Key to the Coming Confrontation 

Hillary is bought and sold by the banks. Her speeches make it clear she works for them and is essentially their pupet in the White House. Like always wars are far more about economy and financial control than anything else.  True there is an element ideology or nationalism at play, but choosing confrontation rarely has to do with that.  Hillary and her backers see Russia and China as a serious threat for their continuing monopoly on global finance.

With this at play, the interests of main street and the elite diverge drastically. Most Americans don’t care about Russian moves in the Middle East or Eastern Europe.  This is why Trump’s foreign policy is attractive. However, Trump is not the President whether or not he wins may not stave off a major confrontation between the USA/EU/Britain and Russia/China.

The financials in the West see a direct confrontation now, even at risk of full-blown WW3 levels rather than a proxy war as better to make sure their control stays in tact. Putin is not waiting either and this makes the “Great Game” far more dangerous than ever. For Putin and even China they understand the West is not going to let them steam roll their new world order.

When Will This Happen?

If Tump pulls an upset and wins, look for Obama to push towards an open confrontation now.  If Hillary wins, Putin will want to move fast in order to throw her foreign policy off before she gets in office.  The war will start, but on Putin’s time-table.  Either way, the stakes are so high this next war maybe the world’s last.

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Is Putin Making his Move Before Election Day?

To most observers Putin is moving in an aggressive way to wrest control of the Middle East and Eastern Europe from NATO.  He has had success after success in dividing NATO and seizing opportunities in filling the void left from a receding America.

The surprise is not Putin’s cunning success, but the speed in which it has occurred. With under 20 days to go in the USA Presidential elections Putin is moving the largest Russian naval force since the collapse of the Soviet Union to the Eastern Mediterranean. With lots of American naval vessels already there, the Eastern Mediterranean is about to get far more crowded.

Putin’s move to seize the Eastern Mediterranean will have long term implications in the region.  For one it will force Israel to finally make a deal with Russia it does not want to. By  providing cover for Iran, Hezbollah, and Syria Putin holds tremendous leverege on Israel.

With elections at hand and a weak president, Putin is set to carve out his place in the Middle East.  The only question is if it includes Israel or not.