Does Russia Have a Deal With Israel on Quneitra De-escalation?

With Russian forces moving into Quneitra as early as July 16th, the realization that Israel is being cornered by Iranian and Hezbollah contingents has now become apparent.  Local Quneitra community councils welcomed the opportunity to force “militants associated with Zionist entity” to lay down their arms.

Russia is aware that the Netanyahu government is not happy about the ceasefire deal hammered out between Trump and Putin at the G-20 on July 7th.

Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister had this to say:

“I can guarantee that we have done everything and the US side has done everything to ensure that Israel’s security interests within this framework are taken fully into account.”

There is more to this statement than just acknowledgment.

Former National Security Council head Yaakov Amidror said the following on Monday in relation to the Iranian presence so close to the Golan:

“Israel may need to take military action to prevent Iran or Hezbollah from setting up permanent bases in Syria.” 

This is no accidental comment. Amidror is a close confidant of the Prime Minister and his comment was meant to send a message to the Russians.

The idea that Iran and Hezbollah is setting up permanent bases so close to Israel’s Golan Heights may appear to be a dangerous step for Israel.  The Russian forces that have now entered the region have only complicated the situation. The peril for Israel cannot be overstated.  However, Amidror’s comments contain a hint of possible solution to the menace forming on Israel’s border.

The Russian’s have at times allowed Israel to take out Hezbollah and Iranian arms transfers, with analysts observing that Russia itself tipped off the Israeli airforce to the location of the hidden arms and gave it fly by capabilities to destroy the targets.  If Israel can convince Putin it is far better to let Israel defend itself by destroying Iranian and Hezbollah fighters on its border than making the IDF attack covertly, then a similar relation can develop even within the framework of the current ceasefire.

More than 18 months ago I wrote the following:

Many analysts believe that Russia, in the long-term, has no interest in allowing Iran to take over the Middle East. Russia views its relationship with Iran as a tactical necessity to prop up Assad and destroy Sunni radicals. After this task is done, the experts in this particular camp believe their paths will diverge.  

If this is so, then logic lends itself to believe Putin wants relationships and long term strategic partnerships with countries that are not only stable, but also share similar security and economic outlooks with himself, and yet will not step in his way. Israel is one of these countries.

We are about to see if this theory holds weight.  If Russia does not prevent Iran and Hezbollah from building up their forces on Israel’s border, then Russia either will have to allow the Israeli airforce to neutralize the growing threat or risk losing leverage over Israel.

Putin has spent much of the Syrian Civil War navigating a variety of local interests while cementing Russia’s control over the Northern Levant. The question remains: At what point does Putin jettison his relationship with Iran in favor of a more moderate and stable relationship with far more rational actors?

If Russia truly wants a stable Middle East then we may be about to see the beginning of a Russian-Iranian divergence.

 

Why Does Israel Oppose the Syrian Ceasefire?

Reports in the media indicate that Prime Minister Netanyahu opposes the ceasefire in Southwestern Syria. The Hill quotes a source from Haaretz that “Netanyahu told French President Emmanuel Macron during a meeting Sunday that Israel does not support the agreement.”

The question is why.  Afterall, on paper quiet in the Southwest on the border of Israel’s Golan Heights is a good thing.  No one in the Israeli government would argue with quiet, yet the nature of the ceasefire allows for Russian observers to man the border region.  This is a huge capitulation on behalf of the Trump administration.  Up until the ceasefire, Israel could, when necessary hit back against Iranian, Hezbollah, and Syrian movements and arms smuggling.  Now that Russian are essentially in the same locations, Israel will now have to make sure not to hit Russian forces while battling parties aimed at its destruction.

More than this, Putin seems intent on playing both sides.  While he has set up a “deconfliction mechanism” with Israel, Putin keeps on moving the goal posts closer to Israel, which effectively renders the “deconfliction mechanism” pointless.

Most analysts, including myself are betting on a new round of fighting between Hezbollah and Israel sooner rather than later, regardless of the Trump-Putin ceasefire. Israel will have to hit quick and successfully in order minimize the amount of destruction it receives back at home.  With Russia in the mix, this ability to wipe out Hezbollah missile infrastructure is severely hampered, especially since Iran and Syria have openly allowed Hezbollah to set up forward bases from Syrian territory. Considering our report yesterday about the ballistic missile factory now set up in Syria, Trump’s ceasefire appears to not only harm Israel, but ultimately America.

The Trump administration might have lowered the risks of going against Putin in Syria, but the White House’s decision has left the region far more imperiled than before.

Syrian Ceasefire Crumbles on Second Day as Regime and Iranian Allies Attack Rebels

Reports are streaming in that Syrian regime forces and its Iranian allies have already started violating the truce brokered between Trump and Putin at the G20 summit last week.  This would mean the much vaunted truce lasted all of 24 hours.

and again:

The fighting continued near Daraa and the Sweida, two areas covered by the ceasefire.  Below is a map of showing areas of control as the the ceasefire went into place.

With the ceasefire beginning to unravel even before the first Russian troops show up to monitor it, the question is how long before the Trump administration and Moscow decide to try to reorganize for another try. The regime and Iran will not stop while the wind is at their backs. They were closing in on capturing Daraa before the agreement and if they do now they will split two of the rebel areas in half and stand on the border of Jordan just a few kilometers from the Southern Golan.

Did Putin Outmaneuver Trump?

Despite Trump’s glowing victory speech after the agreement he “brokered” at the G20, it appears to be Putin that played the President Trump.  Afterall, Putin knew full well that Syria and Iran would not rest until they at least took all of Daraa if not more.  He also knew that his airforce was no longer needed to achieve Daraa’s conquest.

The question remains, will Trump admit he was out played? Or will he continue to spread the false notion that there is actually a ceasefire, when in fact there was none.  The faster the Trump administration realizes that no deal can be made with the regime, Iran, or even their Russian backers, the faster he can stave off total defeat.

SYRIAN CEASEFIRE: Russia Now in Charge of Israel’s Border

The G20 meeting between Putin and Trump has already produced some immediate results.  According to reports the two sides agreed to implement a ceasefire for Southwest Syria, along the Israeli and Jordanian borders.

“A ceasefire will come into force in that zone (Syria’s south – Daraa and Quneitra) at 12.00 Damascus time on July 9,” Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. “The United States has made a commitment that all the groups present there will observe the ceasefire.”

The security in the de-escalation zone in the south of Syria will be ensured by the Russian military police in coordination with the US and Jordan.

“At first, the security around this zone will be ensured with the use of the personnel and resources of the Russian military police,” Lavrov said.

The ceasefire has brought a tenuous relief to Israel as the Syrian regime forces and their Iranian allies were marching straight for the Golan. Reports indicate that Iran was brought to in on the deal by Russia who has grown wary of the Iranian army’s involvement in the conflict.

The deal covers the Daraa, Quneitra, and Sweida areas of Syria.

Is the Ceasefire Really Good for Israel?

Although there is a feeling of relief in Israel due to the ceasefire, the agreement itself is still not without flaws. Israel has demanded that Russia not be alowed to control the ceasefire zones without US involvement.  More than that the ceasefire does not prevent movements by the Syrian regime or its allies to other parts of the country. This essentially means that the Syrian regime can prepare for the next round.

This puts Daraa and Quneitra under a immediate threat once the ceasfire breaks down as it most probably will.

So why did Trump sign such a precarious deal?  Trump was left with little choice. By not committing to ground troops himself, Trump had to put a stop to Syria/Iran’s move to the Meditereanean or risk a broader war with Israel getting involved. Trump found a willing partner in Russia’s Putin to make it happen.

Now that the deal appears to be going into effect on Sunday, the Trump administration has essentially given Putin what he wants. Israel will have a far more precarious future with Russia in the mix on its border.

The deal essentially puts Russia on the border with Israel. This will make it harder and harder for the Israeli military to strike back if it is hit by Syria or Hezbollah. Israeli sources say that Israel’s government is in intense discussions on the specifics of Russia’s role within the ceasefre zones.

RUSSIAN REDEMPTION: Knesset Speaker Yuli Edelstein Returns to Russia a Free Man

Knesset Speaker Yuli Edelstein delivered a historic speech today in Moscow before the Russian Federation Council, the upper house of the Russian parliament. Speaker Edelstein, who was invited for an official visit by Federation Council Chairwoman Valentina Matviyenko, gave the speech 30 years to the day after he served a three-year sentence in a Soviet labor camp for his Zionist activities.

Edelstein opened up with the following statement:

“Thirty-three years ago I was imprisoned here in Moscow by the authorities of the Soviet Union for teaching the Hebrew language. I was imprisoned because I was teaching the language which spread to the world the ideas of rejecting tyranny, upholding the rule of justice, love of mankind and the hopes of freedom; the language in which the prophets of Israel foretold the day on which `Nation shall not lift up sword against nation; nor will they learn war anymore.` I was imprisoned because I worked to disseminate the language in which Abraham, the founder of the Jewish religion, was told ‘Go from your country, your people and your father’s household to the land I will show you.’”

“Today, I stand before you as the Speaker of Knesset Yisrael, and, in the same language which I was imprisoned for teaching, I bless you with the ancient Jewish blessing: `Shalom Aleichem`! Even in my finest dreams, I never believed I`d reach this moment. For me, this brings double closure: For me, Yuli Edelstein, and for the entire Jewish nation, which I stand here as its representative.”

Edelstein touched on the success of Israel as well as the coninuted security challenges it faces. He urged great cooperation and communication in fighting terror.

The speech itself was the first spoken by any Israeli leader.  The honor is usually reserved for heads of state.  Jewish life in Russia under the Soviet regime was constantly threatened.  Despite the geopolitical differences between Putin and the West, Jewish life in Russia today is flourishing.

At the conclusion of his speech, Speaker Edelstein asked to convey a blessing in Hebrew from Jerusalem, “the eternal capital of the Jewish People, from which the message of justice and the war against evil has been coming out for nearly 3,000 years.” He then recited the following verse from Psalms: “Peace be within thy walls, and prosperity within thy palaces. For my brethren and companions’ sakes, I will now say: ‘Peace be within thee.’ For the sake of the house of the LORD our God I will seek thy good.

(Information in this article ​was Communicated by the Knesset Media and Public Relations Division)

 

PUTIN RESPONDS: “White House Threats Against Syria Are Unnacceptable”

With the White House catching even the State Department off-guard with its veiled attack on “Syrian preparations” for another chemical weapons attack, Russia countered with its own statement.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov released the following statement pushing back on the Trump Administration:

“We heard about this statement. We do not know what is the basis for this. And of course we categorically disagree with the ‘another attack’ wording,” Peskov told reporters.”We also consider any similar threats to the legitimate leadership of the Syrian Arab Republic unacceptable.”

Peskov continued: “Cases of chemical toxic substances’ use by Daesh terrorists have been repeatedly recorded. There is a potential threat of the repeat of such provocations. However, I repeat that I don’t possess exact information and I believe that my colleagues from special services and the Defense Ministry will share it [information] if they possess it.”

Although no evidence was stated by the White House of Syrian preparations, Assad has been known to own stockpiles of illegal Sarin Gas.  Russia has often times blamed ISIS for Assad’s chemical weapons infractions.

That being said, the following statement by Nikki Haley is a bit odd.

This sort of statement backs up Russia’s assertions and would in fact invite a chemical weapons attack by ISIS just so Syria can be blamed.

If the White House is right about Syria, then everyone there should pull back from Twitter usage as to not give the Russians anymore ammunition for their disinformation and propoganda campaign.

If the White House is not right about Syria then we are witnessing the makings of a false flag attack in real time.

SYRIA ON THE BRINK: Russia Will Target US Airplanes in Syria

In response to the downing of a Syrian warplane by US forces yesterday, the Russian Defense Ministry said it will treat U.S.-led coalition planes in Syria, west of the Euphrates River, as targets.

Furthermore, Russia said it is suspending coordination with the United States in Syria. This coordination has kept the two super powers from direct conflict since 2015.

Is Direct Conflict Coming?

In one word, yes.  Without the deconfliction deal the chances of a direct conflict between the US and Russia is much higher.  Look for Putin to take steps in aiding the Syrian regime against US forces in Eastern Syria.

With a deconfliction agreement finished between the US and Russia, chances are Putin will scrap his deal with Israel.  This imperils the ability for Israel to defend itself in the Galilee and Golan.

CREATING CHAOS: Did Russia Leak its White House Conversation to the Press?

While Democrats, the Deep State, moderate Republicans, and elite media attempt to use Trump’s passing of intelligence to the Russian foreign minister as a reason to deem him unfit, a vexing issue abounds concerning the actual meeting itself: Who leaked the content of meeting to the press and why? I want to make it clear, there is really nothing illegal about the President passing vital intelligence to the Russians, if by passing it Americans are safer at the end of the day.

In terms of the leaker, there are a bunch of theories on who would leak such a sensitive meeting to the press.  Most people have assumed it is someone from the Trump team.  While this could be true, I believe it was the Russian team.

Once we break free from the idea that the Russians had a horse in the US presidential race we begin to see a pattern of creating chaos in the American political system.  What better way to do that than make it seem as if there is collusion on the part of the Trump administration when there is none. The meeting provided a perfect opportunity to leak routine intelligence sharing and allow the elite media to blow it out of proportion.

Chaos is the key objective for Putin and he is achieving it. With each passing day, Trump’s White House is under increasing pressure from its enemies both domestic and foreign. Putin knows a cornered Trump is no match for him. An American political system where all sides are ready to knife one another is a system in free-fall. The Russians have accomplished something far more important than a securing a friendly White House, they have created chaos and shattered an already troubled American political system.

Breaking the US-Israel Alliance

The leak achieved one other very important goal for Putin…crippling the alliance between Israel and the US.  If Israel, out of fear its intelligence will fall into the wrong hands pulls back on giving the US the intelligence it needs, America will be running blind in Syria since it has relied heavily on Israel’s intelligence gathering tools and agencies to understand what is going on there.

Putin is on the move.  It is time to stop playing into his hands and get united.

Iran Uses Syrian Chaos to Reach Israel

With reports flowing out of Syria that regime forces are close to recapturing Damascus, the situation in the rest of the country remains fluid and chaotic.  So why the fanfare over the successful Damascus operation?  The recapture of Damascus gives the Syrian-Iranian-Russian axis the ability to easily funnel Iranian troops from Shiite areas in Iraq into Syria proper and even up to the Israeli border.

Given the agreement put into place between Russia, Turkey, Syria, and Iran over the four ceasefire zones literally places the border between Jordan and Syria, as well as the Israeli Golan under range of an increasing Iranian troop presence, it is understandable that Israel and even the US is highly reluctant to embrace the agreement signed in Kazakhstan.

With the creation of four safe-zones, the four countries that have signed on have virtually created a no-fly zone for US fighters.  This has implications for two major spheres: Israel and Kurdistan.

Israel has been relying on tacit Russian allowances to fly over and strike shipments from Iran to Hezbollah. It remains to be seen whether Putin will continue to allow this.  Given the fact Iranian troops are increasing their presence on Israel’s Northern border, an absence of this agreement puts Israeli security in jeopardy.

The Turkish ceasefire zones are all focused on forcing the US-back Kurds from the Turkish border.  Without US -air support and supplies, the Kurds can be pushed back.  Unfortunately they have been the best armed force in combating ISIS.  With Kurds being threatened by Turkey, ISIS can and will grow in Northern Syria, after all it was Turkey that had been their original patron.

With Trump distracted in North Korea and domestic troubles, his team has been slow to react to what has become a fait accompli of near Russian-Iranian control over most of Syria. This not only imperils Israel and Kurdistan, but the broader Middle East.

SYRIA CONFLICT: 59 Missiles That Changed the World

With America firing 59 missiles into Syria as retaliation for Assad’s sarin gas bombing of innocent civilians, the genie is now out of the bottle not to be put back in.

President Trump said the following:

“Using a deadly nerve agent, Assad choked out the life of innocent men, women and children. It was a slow and brutal death for so many, even beautiful babies were cruelly murdered in this very barbaric attack. No child of God should ever suffer such horror.

“I ordered a targeted military strike on the airbase in Syria from where the chemical attack was launched. There can be no dispute that Syria used banned chemical weapons and ignored the urging of the UN Security Council.”

The attack on Syrian targets places the US in direct odds against Russia who has used former President Obama’s lack of an asserted approach in Syria and the rest of the Middle East to enter its forces into Syria, thus prolonging the civil war. If Trump brings American forces into the region again both Russia and Iran are in a far more formidable position than before Obama’s term.

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In response to the attack Russian Prime Minister Medvedev said the US strikes were illegal and were “one step away from military clashes with Russia.” Russia has sent its most advanced Black Sea frigate into the eastern Mediterranean late Friday, putting it into direct confrontation with the same US Navy destroyers which were used to attack Syria.

What’s Next?

Given Putin’s response, direct conflict between the two superpowers seems more and more inevitable. The US does not seem to view this attack as a one-off, but rather the beginning of a serious push back against Iranian and Russian influence in the region.

Moscow has suspended the famous deconfliction hotline and has threatened to retaliate.

Expect both sides to continue to build up their armaments in expectationof a broader conflicts, as well as a more determined Trump that will attempt to push back on Putin and the Iranians.  If there is to be a direct conflict, it will be in Northern Syria with the US building up its arms there.

By reasserting the USA into a Middle East that now has Russia and Iran firmly established within it, Trump’s attack on Syria has changed the world forever.