Tag: Iran

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Is the Syrian Regime Getting One Last Battle In Before Today’s Ceasfire Kicks In?

Arab news reports are filled with an ongoing battle in the Syrian Golan, close to the DMZ that separates Israel’s Golan, from the Syrian held Golan.  The Syrian regime and their Iranian allies are skeptical of the ceasefire deal Russia and the US have inked and have made it clear to teir Russian counterparts they have little intention of following it for long.

After all, the Syrian regime has been on a role and has drawn close to the Israeli border.  The Russian ceasefire essentially freezes Syria’s war on the FSA, but at the same time places Russian military police in charge of the area.

As the battle rages between the Syrian regime and rebel forces in the Quneitra region, Israel has taken no chances and has used drones and other surveliance tools to monitor the battle as the ceasefire comes in. Iran has made it clear they will use the ceasefire to regroup and build up their Syrian allies to be ready to take more rebel controlled territory near the Israeli border when the ceasefire collpases.

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TWO FRONT WAR: Iran is Sharing ICBM Technology with North Korea

Donald Trump issued the following Tweet in reaction to this morning’s North Korean ICBM launch that had the potential to hit Alaska.

Despite the bravado, the Tweets do not hide the utter shock in North Korea’s ability to make serious advancements in its ICBM program.  Today’s test was supposed to be a year away.  This puts pressure on the Trump administration to respond accordingly.

Yet, how did the situation reach this point?  Disregarding the last 17 years of foolish attempts at convincing North Korea to stop, the last several months has seen their program has grown considerably.

Iran is Developing North Korea’s ICBM Technology

The partnership built around missile development and nuclear technology between Iran and North Korea has only grown stronger since the Obama administration reached a deal on Iran’s nuclear program.

North Korea tests missiles then sells the know how to Iran who in turn tests and improves the missile and then sends the updated specs back to North Korea.  This is the explanation of how the Kim Jong Un regime has reached impressive levels of missile capability is disconcerning and means that the Trump administration is essentiall fighting a two front war. It also means that the North Korean and Iranian issue are ver intertwined.

Israel Defense Analyst Tal Inbar wrote in May:

“The ‘accuracy revolution’ is a process we see in many countries’ rockets and missile forces,” Inbar wrote. “North Korea’s close ally, Iran, which bought the technical know-how on ballistic missiles from North Korea, introduced a new generation of ballistic missiles with a forward section containing a set of movable fins and guidance equipment.”

Taking on One Means Taking on Two

Micha Gefen reported in April about the interconnection of the two programs.

“It has been known for some time that Iranian missile technology was developed in North Korea.  Both regimes see the USA as their number one enemy and have worked together to build a situation where they would pose a serious threat to the USA. To most observers North Korea and Iran are in constant coordination as can be seen from last week’s ballistic missile test in Ira, which followed North Korea’s launch of four missiles near Japan.

Researchers from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies published a research paper (.pdf) in January 2016 outlining Iran’s past and present military dealings with North Korea, concluding that “the signs of military and scientific cooperation between Iran and North Korea suggest that Pyongyang could have been involved in Tehran’s nuclear and ballistic-missile program, and that state-run trading companies may have assisted in critical aspects of Iran’s illicit nuclear-related activities.””

If America and its allies want to deal with North Korea, the Iranian advance accross Syria and its threat to the Israeli Golan must be taken into consideration.

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BREAKING: Renewed Battle in the Golan Demilitarized Zone Between Rebels and the Syrian Regime

Syrian sources are reporting that the battle for Al-Baath city, which lies in the demilitarized zone between Israel and Syria has been renewed.  So far the rebels that were pushed out of the strategic city last week, have yet to regain a foothold in Al-Baath, which is in the Quneitra province.

The sources indicate that Israeli jet fighters have launched supportive attacks against the regime forces in the area. The airstrikes struck regime army positions inflicting heavy losses both in personnel and military equipment to the regime.

Al-Baath City is strategic due to its location within the UNDOF zone.  Its control by the Syrian regime essentially puts Iran within striking distance of the Golan.

Prime Minister Netanyahu stated last week in Katzrin:

“We are here celebrating the fortieth anniversary of Katzrin, the capital of the Golan Heights. I said that we will not tolerate spillover and that we will respond to every firing. During my speech, shells from the Syrian side landed in our territory, and the IDF has already struck back. Whoever attacks us – we will attack him. This is our policy and we will continue with it.”

If the FSA is unable to retake Al-Baath, even with Israeli air support, Israel will be forced to either reconcile with an emboldened Iran on their border or enter the fray directly to hold them back.

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Syrian Troops with Hezbollah Clear Out Al-Baath, Is the Next Stop Israel?

Syria and Hezbollah are reporting that they have successfully cleaned Al-Baath city from rebel and Jihadi forces.  Al-Baath has been the target of intense fighting between rebel and regime forces for over a week. The city is strategic for its location closer to the Damascus-Daraa road which has been the main supply line for the regime forces fighting against Free Syrian Army associated militias in Daraa.

Al-Baath itself, is the headquarters for the Iranian and Hezbollah contingents in Western Syria.  The city’s fall gives the regime and its Iranian ally direct access to the Quneitra province.  It also forces the Israeli government into a bit of a quandary. Up until the Israeli army has opted for using retaliation strikes against the regime as a way of tacitly aiding the rebels as well as offering humanitarian aid.  It has worked until now.  With Syria and Iran now able to move within the Israeli buffer zone around the Golan, Prime Minister Netanyahu will be forced to decide whether to enter the Syrian Civil War directly or allow the Shiite juggernaut to take up positions on the Israeli border.

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Middle East Realignment Driven by China’s Drive to End Petrodollar Dominance

China’s goal is to become the leading economic superpower and to move the world away from the US dollar. They have been forming alliances with Middle Eastern countries including Iran, Qatar and Turkey. The petrodollar system is the primary reason the US dollar is still the world’s reserve currency as oil producing countries like Saudi Arabia do not sell their oil in currencies other than US dollars. Without this agreement, the US dollar would eventually lose its role as the global reserve currency. China has been working with countries in the Middle East to sell their oil in yuan and thereby weaken the US. 

The Chinese strategy has been to internationalize their currency via a number of different projects (see list below). A Zerohedge report in April articulates how China and Russia are joining forces to bypass the US dollar in global trade. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) described as a ‘Eurasian political, economic, and security organization’ is one of the means of executing that vision. Its members include China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Earlier this month, India and Pakistan were admitted as members. These countries are expected to further enhance their economic relations via trade. For China to successfully meet its goals, a larger base of countries must join this block. 

Iran

According to this report, bilateral trade between China and Iran grew to $31.2 billion in 2016. Iran is currently listed as having ‘Observer status’ in SCO. As Russia has long wanted Iran to attain full membership status, China recently signaled its support. Incidentally, Iran announced earlier this year that it would stop using the US dollar in its official statements. Iran and China conducted a naval drill in the Gulf a few weeks back.

Turkey

President Tayyip Erdogan implied last December that Turkey is taking steps to allow commerce with China, Russia and Iran to be conducted in local currencies. A Chinese report confirmed that to ‘increase the trade volume and foreign investments between Turkey and China, and decrease their dependency on the US dollar during financial transactions, China and Turkey have started direct trading with their local currencies’. Current trade volume of $28 billion is expected to increase.

Turkey even dropped hints at shuttering the Incirlik air base to US air operations. With the US support of the Kurds in their fight against ISIS, there may be a stronger motivation to act. In fact, Turkey refused German lawmakers access to the base leading Germany to announce plans to withdraw 280 troops, as well as surveillance planes and refueling jets, from the Incirlik air base. If you are interested in understanding the historical importance of thie Incirlik air base read this and this. Turkey is listed as a ‘Dialogue partner’ in SCO.

Qatar 

Over two years ago, Qatar launched the first Chinese yuan clearing hub in the Middle East. According to Qatar’s central bank governor, Sheikh Abdullah bin Saud al-Thani, it would create ‘the necessary platform to realize the full potential of Qatar and the region’s trade relationship with China’. Since it opened, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has cleared more than 590 billion yuan ($86 billion) in transactions in Qatar. Zheng Chunyi, General Manager of ICBC Doha, confirmed that ‘Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait are the most active Middle East countries using the RMB clearing center for direct payments with Chinese mainland and Hong Kong’. 

Iran-Turkey-Qatar Axis

The newly formed Iran-Turkey-Qatar axis (as evidenced by events such as this, this and this) is tied together by each countries’ burgeoning relationship with China. While Russia has a greater military presence in the Middle East (via Syria) and draws the most attention from Russia-phoebes in the US, China is the key financial player. Together, both Russia and China have emerged as a direct threat to US supremacy in the region. Although Iran has always had better relations with China, Turkey and Qatar have been solidly aligned with the West as each country still maintain US military personal at their bases.  Perhaps, both countries are hedging their bets based on a calculation that will see a rising China and declining US.

The Petrodollar

Since the inauguration, President Trump has not mentioned the 28 page document (known simply as ‘The 28 pages’ and discussed during the campaign) which implicated members of the Saudi Arabian government for their involvement in the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center. He in fact visited Saudi Arabia last month, participated in a sword dance and signed off on a $110 billion weapons deal. Why? The answer is the petrodollar. The key part of this agreement is that the US must defend Saudi Arabia as long as they sell their oil in US dollars.

It would appear that China is taking no chances and is working on pushing Saudi Arabia into its sphere of influence. Byron King from the Daily Reckoning speculates that China is looking to modify its terms of its oil trade with Saudi Arabia as follows:  

‘China is currently modifying the terms of its oil trade with Saudi Arabia. Specifically, China is working on a deal to pay for Saudi oil using Chinese yuan. This effort poses a direct threat to the security of the dollar. If this China-Saudi deal happens — yuan for oil — it’s another step closer to the grave for the petrodollar, which has dominated global finance since 1974.’

Whether the speculation is true or not, the threat to the US dollar as the reserve currency is real. The petrodollar system is under an attack directed by China.

From a US perspective, options are limited and further actions like a US invasion of Syria could make the situation worse. Since the US military has decided to back the Kurds to fight ISIS, there is less of a chance to win back Turkey. In my opinion, the best option would be for the US to maintain the current petrodollar system as long as possible until a new one backed by cryptocurrencies is ready. I outlined this in my prior post titled Global Currency Reset Happening Now as Bitcoin Price Explodes. Unfortunately, the US Senate doesn’t have a clue. 

Projects that will Further Internationalize the Chinese Yuan

– China’s yuan inclusion in the International Monetary Fund’s currency basket

– China International Payment System (CIPS) is an alternative payments system to SWIFT

– Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is an international financial institution that will finance infrastructure projects in the Asia region

– Bilateral Currency Swap Lines completed between China and over thirty counterparties to enable greater overseas trade of the yuan

– Silk Road Gold Fund to facilitate gold purchase for the central banks of member states

– Shanghai Gold Exchange launched to set a new benchmark price for gold bullion

This post originally appeared on News with Chai blog.

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IRAN: “We Caused Our Missiles To Miss On Purpose…”

Last week Iran fired six ground to ground missiles at Deir el-Zour, more than 600 kilometers (370 miles) away in Eastern Syria, reportedly at ISIS. Most reports indicated that the missiles missed their mark and fell apart hitting the desert.

While Iran has never disagreed on those two points, the Mullahs have pushed back on the reasons for the stunning miss.

State TV’s website quoted the airspace division chief of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh as saying “we had coordinated the fall of the engines in the desert in Iraq” in advance.

“The missiles we used were two-stage, it means that the engine separates from the warhead,” said Hajizadeh.

Impact on Israel

Israel reported that the warheads missed their mark, while three didn’t even reach Syrian territory.  If the report is correct, Iranian missile technology, at least the kind that was used on Sunday is not as advanced as orginally thought.  Does this mean Israel should rest easy?

No. The Iranian regime is also very good at playing games.  They could have launched those missiles purposely showing off faulty technology to throw the West off.

This is a lot better than the official explanation given for the reason why Israel was able to track downed missiles:

“Pity those who call themselves experts and do not understand that these were the first-stage engines (that fell), while the warheads hit targets.”

Either the Iranian regime doesn’t know the Russians, USA, and Israel all recorded missiles that missed their mark or they are just face saving.  Either way, unless this is a ruse, the Mullahs are in far worse shape than we thought.

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SYRIA CRISIS CONTINUES: Gunfire Spills Over into Israel Three Days in a Row, IDF Responds

Gunfire from Syria was reported this morning (Monday) in the Golan Heights, for the third consecutive day. As in the past two days, there are no casualties or damage.

The IDF ordered farmers in the Quneitra Valley to evacuate their orchards and closed the road leading to Ein Zivan, due to heavy smoke in the area as a result of the fighting in Syria.

Security sources reported hearing IDF tank fire, ostensibly in response to Syrian territory, but said that “the reports of an attack in Syria are false reports.” It added that “there were no indications and risks in the systems, and no alarm was sounded.”

Minister of Defense Avigdor Lieberman said at the start of yesterday’s cabinet meeting:

“We have a lot of prophets who predict war in the north or the south, we have no intention of initiating a military move – neither in the south nor in the north.” However, he clarified that “we are not going to give a pass on anything, everything will have a powerful response.”

“I wanted to warn the people in Damascus, whoever wants to turn the area there into a Hizbullah base, give it another thought,” added Lieberman. “We will not accept that Syria becomes another base that will become a front against Israel.” 

As Syria and Iranian backed militias gain a foothold in the Quneitra district, Israel will be forced to openly back the rebels in the area or enter the war themselves.  If Syria and Iran gain access to the Golan, Israel’s security would be imperiled due to the Golan’s strategic vantage point.

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SYRIA CRISIS: Will Har Dov Be Iran’s First Target in Israel?

Har Dov maybe the first target of an Iranian attack on Israel.

As the Iranian and Russian backed Syrian government continues to extend its offenses South into the Daraa province, effectively cutting off Israel backed militias in the Eastern Golan with their counterparts East of Jabal Al-Druze, the next stop for the campaign is to move West on the Golan border.

Israel has controlled the Golan since 1967 and annexed the mountainous area in 1981.  Syria has never hidden its ambition in taking back the strategic territory, either through war or negotiations. Unlike the Southern Lebanese border area, the Golan has only recently been the subject and focus of Hezbollah.

With the advance of the Russian-Iranian axis the Har Dov area of the Golan takes an added statregic importance. Claimed by both Lebanon and Syria, Har Dov, also known as the Shebaa Farms has been the source of increased surveilance by Hezbollah.

Sources close to Israel Rising told us the official response to these surveliance actions has been to not shoot out of fear of starting a war with Hezbollah prematurely.  Hezbollah agents are often seen close to the mountainous border fence aking pictures.  Since they are not armed, soldiers refrain from shooting.

So why is Iran focused on Har Dov?

Although the international community has backed Israel’s claim that the area is in fact Syrian and included in the Golan Heights, the Lebanese government still claims the strategic region.  More than that the border area is pourous as the IDF was forced to fence in the entire Arab town of Ghajar which is further South of Har Dov and lies on both sides of the Lebanese border.

As far as strategic importance, Har Dov leads to the Banias river which descends into the upper Galil opening up the entire Israeli North. With Iran/Syria/Russia building up on the Golan’s Eastern border, an attack and infiltration on Har Dov could effectively cut the Golan off from Northern Israel.

 

Har Dov in the Golan
Image Source: Garzo/Wiki

 

With the continued breakdown of the US backed coalition forces in Southern Syria, Har Dov becomes critical in defending against an Iranian backed attack on Iran. Northern Israel and the Golan Heights is fast becoming the next showdown in the Syrian conflict.

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WAR ESCALATES: Why Did Iran Just Shoot Missiles Into Syria?

The war in Syria has gone from intensified to explosive as the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced that it fired several ground o ground missiles in from Western Iran into Syria’s Deir Ezzor region in the country’s East.

The purpose, according to the Iranians was a realiation for the attack on Tehran by ISIS on June 7th.

Most likely the Iranian missile attack on Eastern Syria was far more a message for the US coalition than a retaliation against ISIS.

Three points to consider:

  1. The proximity in time to the downing of a Syrian Warplane makes the missile attack a likely soft-retaliation for the US attack within sovereign Syria.
  2. The Iranians need a powerplay as the SDF/YPG are moving South and North in a rush to pick up the pieces as ISIS falls apart. The message is clear: “Don’t expect a post ISIS Syria to be a cake walk.”
  3. Iran wanted to send a message to Israel: “We can already reach you.”

As the Syrian war seems to be exploding in a far more dangerous and chaotic way all the issues surrounding the war are coming to a head.  The next move is now Trump’s…is he willing to stop Iran?

 

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Are Post ISIS Alliances Already Taking Shape?

As the Raqqa operation gets underway, with the SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) ploughing forward into the “capital” of ISIS, the terror group’s leaders and fighters are said to have already travelled to safe havens along the middle Euphrates.  With the American backed SDF bogged down in strett to street fighting, Iranian paramilitary units are pouring in from where they helped fight to free Mosul to Eastern Syria to destroy the heads of ISIS.

This struggle for land as ISIS collapses is forming the beginnings of regional boundaries that in essence brand new lines between ethnic units as well as defined frontiers of regional alliances.

Rising up from the rubble of ISIS are two clearly definied groupings.

The first consists of Russia, Iran, Syria (Assad), Turkey, and Qatar.  None of these countries trust eachother, but work together under a common interest in battling back America as well as seeking a piece of what they see as a rising Middle Eastern hegemony.

The second group is made up of the United States, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, UAE, Jordan, Egypt, Kurds and Israel.  This grouping sees the first group as an existential threat and has been conjoled to work together by the Trump administration.

With the fall of ISIS a matter of weeks, the real battle will come after. Iran has used the chaos to reach to the Israeli border.  They have shown the ability to capitalize on the weaknesses of their enemies. Besides Iran, Hezbollah can now turn its sites on Israel.

The Middle Eastern alliances now taking shape even before the last of the caliphate are buried not only put Iran im the drivers seat, but increase the likelihood of war sooner rather than later.  The Syckes-Picot agreement, the document based colonialist and neo-colonialist pinciples set in motion by France and Germany is becoming irrelevant as a new set of states and mini states take shape.

As the chaos spreads throughout the region and beyond, the Saudis backed by Israeli tehnology will attempt to push back on the Shiite gains in order to create a buffer between the Kingdom and its enemies. The Kurds backed covertly by Israel and overtly by America will be encouraged to push forward in order to stabilize Northern Syria and Iraq and break the link between a power hungry Turkey and their allies in Qatar.

Be prepared the Great Game of the Middle East is about to begin. It could very well be far more destructive than the havoc ISIS has caused.