War Drums: The Fire Intifada is Only the Beginning, Hezbollah is Next

As more fires are set around Israel and the nation’s emergency response is stretched to its max, the next phase in what is fast becoming and orchestrated series of events is likely to happen. It has been understood for a while now that Hezbollah and their Iranian sponsors would launch counter measures in Northern Israel.  With Trump set to take over in a matter of weeks and Putin trying to keep balance between Israel and Iran, the window of opportunity for an actual attack is closing.

Using the fires to cripple Israeli infrastructure, especially in Haifa where large chemical plants exist is a set up for what Iran and Hezbollah plans to do next.  Expect Hezbollah infiltrators with the help of the same groups that are setting fires to penetrate Israel’s Northern border and carve out an area.  Reaction will be swift from Israel, but it will spark a far wider conflict in the waining days of Obama’s presidency.  Given Putin’s role behind the scenes he maybe forced to play peacemaker.

The goal is not to win, but to bring Israel to its knees.  So far Israel’s enemies are winning.

Israel Needs to Conquer Quneitra NOW!

After many years, it appears that the brutal civil war in Syria is significantly shifting in Bashar Assad’s favor. The Syrian Armed Forces, with relentless assistance from Russia, Turkey and Hezbollah/Iran, are advancing in all areas of the country against the various rebel factions. The rebel factions including ISIS, the former Al-Qaeda affiliate, the somewhat secular/somewhat democratic rebels, and numerous other small Sunni militias, are all in retreat. 

Despite the savage barbarism seen throughout the conflict, including the use of chemical weapons, execution of civilians, torture, rape and sieges by all sides, the previous long-standing general stalemate seemingly has been in the strategic interest of the State of Israel. As long as no side could win in Syria, no side could afford to be overtly aggressive to the neighboring countries.

However, all indications are that this will now change. Along with ferocious fighting in Aleppo, the Syrian armed forces and their allies are reportedly massing near the Golan Heights area, planning to eradicate the eclectic rebel presence in the area, primarily around the symbolic and strategic city of Quneitra. Now is the time for the Israeli Government to threaten to conquer Quneitra, again!  (Quneitra was conquered by Israel during the “Six Day War” in 1967 and foolishly returned to Syria after the Yom Kippur War in 1973.)

Quneitra and the surrounding area
Quneitra and the surrounding area

By threatening to conquer Quneitra, again, Israel will be sending a clear and real message to Assad that a permanent Hezbollah/Iranian presence there is out of the question. While the current situation of various radical jihadist forces in Quneitra is also wholly unacceptable, until now, its has been manageable. Its possible that when the dust settles, Assad will emerge victorious and strengthened. And its possible he will turn to his historic allies, Alawites, the Druze and others to rebuild his country. And maybe there is a possibility that he will look to abandon Iran/Hezbollah and forge peace with his neighbors. But for now, that’s wishful thinking – Shimon Peres style. And we’ve unfortunately seen where that can lead.

An Israeli conquest of Quneitra may become a strategic necessity and it might happen pretty soon. In the meantime, Assad should clearly understand that Hezbollah will not be opening a new front against Israel in the Golan Heights. And if he can’t understand that, then the State of Israel needs grow in size a bit and registration should be opened for the new Jewish residents of Quneitra. 


Break the BDS

WAR DRUMS: Hezbollah Explosives a Precursor to the Next Conflict

The Israeli military has confirmed that the explosives found in Metulah on the border of Lebanon 3 weeks ago were indeed placed there by Hezbollah.  There are two pervading opinions in the defense establishment, one is the explosives were smuggled into Israel for terrorist attacks. The other opinion believes the explosives were placed in the woods near Metulah to be used at some later date in  a war with Israel.

Although Hezbollah is in no shape to fight a war with Israel while they are taking on ISIS, the newly formed understandings between Turkey and Russia may be a sign that Hezbollah can pull back and let Turkey mop up.  If this is the case then Hezbollah will be well positioned to fight another war with Israel, this time with Iranian forces firmly entrenched on the Golan border.

The explosives are an ominous sign for what awaits Israel as changes in the Middle East are fast underway.

WAR DRUMS: Is a Golan Clash Imminent?

What seemed highly improbable just a few months ago, appears very real today.  In the topsy-turvy middle east anything is possibly these days.  A large amount of politicians have counted Bashar Assad out since the beginning of Syria’s brutal civil war. These naysayers include former Primer Minister Ehud Barak and President Obama. Yet, in power Assad stands and now with a very invigorated Putin behind him, Assad’s moves on the Golan border are forcing Israel into a very tough position.

Israel can no longer afford to pretend to be neutral as the last vestiges of resistance to the Assad regime it helped create is destroyed.  Beyond that, remaining neutral allows Syria, Iran, and Hezbollah to build up right on Israel’s border.

Can’t Israel Trust Russia to Reign in Assad?

Trusting Putin depends how much one really believes he is a trustworthy individual.  Putin’s goal is to what’s best for Russia and it is far easier for him to force Israel into a weakened bargaining position. Make no mistake, Putin has no interest in destroying the Jewish state, but he wants to make the quiet he is supposed to enforce worthwhile. A cornered Israel dependent on the good graces of Russia, is exactly what Putin wants. Yet if te middle east has proved one thing over the past few years, it is unpredictability.

Already Out of Putin’s Hands

There is a false notion often bandied about across a wide spectrum of geopolitical thinkers that says Russia is in direct control of Iranian actions as well as Syrian.  Russia has always viewed Syria as his puppet, but when it comes to the Iranians it is often an uneasy partnership that only works because of shared short-term interests. Assad’s regime owes its existence to both Russia and Iran and therefore as long as its two benefactors have a mutual interest in not fighting Israel, Assad can be held back.

Iran has a short window of time to take action against the Jewish State. Russian intervention in Syria has allowed Assad and the Iranian forces there to be able to strengthen and position themselves with little problem in forward attack position on the Golan border.  Hezbollah still has 100’s of thousands of rockets aims at Israel. Russia does not want a war with Israel, but if one occurs the Arab and Iranian assumption is that it is Israel who will refrain from attacking out of fear of Russian intervention.  As far as Russian reigning them in, Putin wouldn’t be able to, even if he wanted.  Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah are all needed by Russia in their fight against American and Turkey proxy forces in the region.

In the coming days, the tension already in full display on the Golan border is bound to increase due to a failed Israeli assassination attempt on Syrian General Majid Heymoud reported by the Iranian Fars News Agency. Will Israel risk upsetting its delicate relationship with Russia in order to preempt an Iranian-Syrian play for the Golan?






Is Israel Prepared for a New Lebanon War?

Yesterday marked ten years since the Second Lebanon War with Israel. The Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee of the Knesset marked the day with a debate on the lessons learned  from the war to see if the home front is prepared for a possible future conflict.

While the chief of staff for the IDF`s Home Front Command, Brig. Gen. Dedi Simchi, says of the 257 local authorities, 235 will be able to handle – with varying degrees of success – a future emergency situation, and that an “excellent culture of emergency has developed in the national home front,” several MK’s argued that a lot of work is needed to prepare for a future conflict.

MK Mordhay Yogev (Habayit Hayehudi) said the government must budget plans for fortification and the evacuation of civilians, if needed. “A war can – God forbid – leave us with thousands of people killed and damage to infrastructure to such an extent that we will have a hard time recuperating,” he stated. ”If we will not invest five billion shekels in fortification, we will sustain 50 billion shekel`s worth of damage.”

MK Eyal Ben-Reuven (Zionist Camp) said a conflict in the north ”is almost inevitable” but the region ”is not prepared for a war with 1,200-1,500 missiles falling daily.”

Committee Chairman Dichter lauded the Home Front Command for drawing the necessary conclusions immediately after the war, and said the issue of the local authorities` preparedness for a future conflict must be addressed.

”We must not leave question marks that will be exposed only in an emergency,” he said, adding that ”Hezbollah`s current [dire situation] gives us time to prepare the north, and this must guide us from an operational perspective.”

Considering the recent Hezbollah drone that penetrated Israel’s airspace in the Golan and talks in the Knesset of the dangers Israel faces from its neighbors, it is an opportune time for Israel to step up its security measures for the civilian population.


Hezbollah Drone Maybe a Harbringer for Renewed Fighting with Israel

The collective wisdom is that Hezbollah is too caught up with supporting the Assad government’s fight against ISIS to attack Israel, but Hezbollah’s penetration of Israel’s airspace in the Golan yesterday using a drone, may be an indication that things are about to change.

The IDF fired two Patriots at the drone and missed their target.  The drone made it back to its origin in Syria.  For Hezbollah, drones are a perfect form of both psychological warfare and reconnaissance. The important question is whether this is more of the same from Hezbollah or should Israel be prepared for renewed combat against Hezbollah.

In the last year the area West of the Golan has been the scene of warfare between Jihadist like Al-Nusra or ISIS and Hezbollah and Syrian Government Forces. There have been stray shells that penetrated the Golan and other incidents, but Hezbollah until recently has stayed focused on extraditing the Assad regime from the grips collapse.

The ramifications of renewed fighting between Hezbollah and Israel could be wide. The IDF will have to contend with Iranian troops as well as the Syrian army which is looking to raise morale. Fighting the “Zionists” is an excellent way to do that. The real unknown is Russia’s reaction.  Putin has taken a liking to Israel and wants it within his sphere of influence, yet is fully aware that he has supported Iran, Hezbollah, and Syria in their fight against ISIS.  At some point Putin will have to make a decision on which party to support for the long term. Renewed combat between Israel and Hezbollah will bring that decision to the forefront.


Headlines: Stabbing Attack, Earthquake, Iran Holocaust Denial Cartoon Contest

One man wounded after stabbing attack along Hanevi’im Street in Jerusalem. Arab terrorist arrested.
[Arutz Sheva]


Light earthquake measuring 4.8 hits southern Israel; No injuries reported.
[The Jerusalem Post]


Iran mocks the Holocaust by staging a Nazi-themed cartoon contest, as Israeli prime minister claims the Islamic Republic is ‘preparing another genocide’
[Daily Mail]


The planned French international peace initiative will take place without Israeli or Palestinian Authority participation.
[The Jewish press]


Nasrallah: We must be vigilant against the ‘Zionists’. Hezbollah leader warns of Israel’s moves in the region, calls for vigilance.
[Arutz Sheva]


Two suspects have been arrested and are still being questioned for the Hizme checkpoint bombing earlier this month.
[The Jewish press]

Headlines: Israel Memorial Day, Fighter Jets Attack Hezbollah, Bomb Attack on IDF

Israel observes Yom Hazikaron, its Memorial Day, to honor 23,477 fallen soldiers and citizens who died as victims of terror.
[The Jewish press]


86-year-old relives horror on Jerusalem promenade, when terrorists pounced on her friends, and Arab workers refused to help.
[Arutz Sheva]


Israeli Air Force fighter jets struck a weapons convoy headed into the hands of Hezbollah fighters in Syria. The attack allegedly occurred on the Syrian-Lebanese border earlier in the afternoon and struck a number of vital positions important to the terror organization.
[The Jerusalem Post]


An IDF officer and a second soldier were wounded Tuesday night in a quadruple bomb attack at the Hizme checkpoint, while an hour later five more bombs were defused by IDF sappers.
[The Jewish Press]


French PM Manuel Valls will visit Israel and the PA this month in a bid to engineer a peace deal based on a two-state solution.
[Arutz Sheva]

Hezbollah Gets a Raise

As I sit here writing this article a monster is being let out of the cage.  All the talk of “peace in our time” too as well as changing strategic partnerships are just euphemisms for politicians who have given the regime in Iran what it needs to go from being an uninfluential terrorist sponsoring state to already on its way to becoming a regional superpower.

Already an emboldened Iran is forcing the hand of the Gulf States to decide between Saudi Arabia and themselves.  It has made it clear that it will pour tons of money that is being unlocked as part of the agreement into its army and terrorist entities.

The idea that Iran needs a nuclear weapon to wipe out Israel is a farce. It does not need nukes nor an ICBM for that.  These are things it needs to attack Europe and America. This what made the Iran Nuclear Deal so ridiculous.  It’s as if the Western powers really believed that Iran just wanted to kill Jews, something none of them really took issue with.

Nasrallah is Coming for Jerusalem

Iran’s main weapon against Israel is Hezbollah.  With Hezbollah’s hundreds of thousands of missiles covering most of Israel, Iran does not need a nuke to knock out Israel’s vital locations. Add to that Russia’s coverage of the Levant under the S-400 system, which makes a surprise attack by Israel against Hezbollah installations daunting to say the least. Hezbollah has also been receiving Russian weapons in its fight against the Syrian rebels.

With Nasrallah to Israel’s North, it is no wonder Bibi is trying his best to be on good terms with Putin.  Ultimately speaking, the USA and Europe have little or no leverage on Iran, but Russia is different and so Bibi’s strategy is to woo the newest Tsar and hope that in time another solution arises.

Iran Unleashed

Now that the nuclear deal is a done and money is flowing into Iran, the stakes in the Middle East have risen.  Iran’s regime is revolutionary in nature.  Revolutionaries do not rest until the revolution is complete. For Iran it is simple. When the Mahdi comes the Revolution is done.  For Iran, their first target is Saudi Arabia and the next is Europe and the USA.  Israel, is of course a target, but one that Iran believes will and can be taken care of fairly easily.

The Mahdi or the hidden Imam will only come when the world reaches a state of chaos. The Western governments and Russia have seen no harm in enabling one of the most dangerous regimes in the History of the World. Of course their rationale seems unchanged from their counterparts over 70 years ago in relation to Hitler.  Then Hitler was “only” after the Jews.  Chamberlain and company saw no problem with letting a bunch of unwanted Jews die to avert war.  Well, war came anyway and with it, the near destruction of the world.

This time, the global elite have made a similar judgement. War is not far off, it is moments away.

Iran Can be Stopped

The irony of Iran’s re entry into global markets is that crude oil prices stand between 29 to 31 dollars per barrel. That is far lower than needed to sustain the Iranian economy. With their oil back into global circulation the price will plummet further.  This means the Ayatollahs cannot wait to pounce on their neighbors, but must move quickly before their economy implodes completely.

This makes Iran extremely dangerous in the short term with the potential for sparking global conflict by attacking Saudi Arabia and Israel. Furthermore by forcing both the USA’s hand as well as Russia’s conflict is in the offing.  

If Iran balks in the coming weeks, their economic turmoil will increase.  At that point the regime will be in danger. Essentially, Iran can be stopped by the regime itself.


Despite neoconservative warmongering against Iran and their client regime in Syria, the best choice of action at this point is to find a way to keep forcing the price of oil lower until Iran either makes a faulty step forward or waits too long to jump. Militarily speaking Israel and those seeking to defend the World from the Mullahs must be ready to fight when Iran attacks which will come sooner than expected.  The rest will be up to the Almighty.


The Quiet Revolution

Darkness feels like it’s everywhere these days.  From ISIS, Iran, and Hezbollah on our borders and the slow motion Palestinian Intifada within, our enemies are literally surrounding us.  Old friends are in disarray and our new partners are untrustworthy. The government in Israel seems almost wishful in its outlook on our geopolitical situation and far too fixated on political gain by locking up young settler activists without trial.

The government has gone seemingly mad.  One day they are building an alliance with Greece, Cyprus, and Egypt and the next they are entertaining the idea of rapprochement with Turkey.

So why the confusion?

The State of Israel was born out of two conflicting historical movements. One was the 19h century nationalist movement that had swept the European continent and inspired European Jews to build for themselves a National Homeland in their historic home located in the Land of Israel.

The second movement popped up after the Holocaust and before National Independence in 1948. It what an international movement by the world to give the Jews a State a sort of amelioration for the slaughter that was purpotrated by the Nazis and their supporters during WW2. This movement came at the tailend of the Revolt in which the three competing Jewish paramilitary units in the Holy Land were attempting to push out the British. It is no accident that the British would have have saved millions of Jews if not for their whitepaper and yet despite the loss to the Jewish Nation, the Jews of the Palestinian Mandate pushed on against the one of the World’s strongest Nations.

Before the British could be embarrassed the amelioration movement, which had nothing to do with Zionism came in and saved the British. On the 29th of November 1947 Resolution 181 was passed by the UN and despite its never being implemented the Resolution cemented in the World’s mind that the State of Israel, (which would have been born with or without the UN) was birthed exclusively by the United Nations as a reaction to the Holocaust.

The sad irony that it was in fact Britain whose policies kept Jewish immigration to the mandate at near standstill while Jews were being slaughtered by the Nazis by the millions standing behind the fledgling Jewish State is not accidental. The young state would not last against the British trained Arab forces and in due time would have to invite the British back in. Of course the opposite happened and yet the colonial mentality persists and pervades the ruling elite in Israel.

The idea that Israel is a creation of the UN buries the gains the Zionist Revolution made within the hearts of the masses before the partition plan was drafted.  After all it was not us with the Almighty at our backs that pushed the British out, it was they they British who gave us our State. This causes a yearning to be loved by the Nations and creates an incoherent geopolitical strategy.

Noting the historical amnesia of the Jewish Nation, Rabbi Yehuda HaKohen, founder of Lavi Olami notes in a 2008 op-ed the following:

“Like the American Revolution, the Zionist Revolution succeeded in liberating a country from the mighty British Empire. And this was no small achievement for Jewish people who, only three years earlier, were being systematically butchered by the millions in Europe. Freedom was won in blood and fire by heroic young fighters willing to give their lives so that future generations would see a Hebrew flag over Jerusalem. But aside from this near-impossible feat, the Zionist Revolution also had – and still has – several more seemingly unattainable tasks to accomplish.”

Despite the setbacks and void in leadership at the national level, a quiet revolution is afoot. More and more people are recognizing that the path forward is to once again cultivate our roots. Silently and nearly methodically there has been an organic growth in young activists looking out at the regional landscape and seeing their own indigenous experience and wanting to hook back into it. It is this connection to the Land and Nation that young zionists within Israel are beginning to lay as the foundation for going forward.

More than this though, the Zionist Revolution calls on the people of Israel to elect and support leaders that partner with like minded indigenous nations in the region as well as economic and military policies that are independent from the needs of the interests of the global elites and neo-conservative elements entrenched in American foreign policy institutions.

A successful revolution means foreign organizations and global corporations who do not have the Jewish Nation’s best interests are to be kept out of decision making. Sadly our current leaders, from Naftali Bennett to Bibi Netanyahu at the very least believe the State of Israel has achieved its revolution and perhaps they have succumbed to the spirit that we were in fact born out of the ovens and gas chambers of the Holocaust rather than as a result of the immovable destiny of our ancient Nation.  

Thankfully, there are those who see things differently, who place the revolution still ahead of us. From the throngs of Temple Mount activists, to the young guard in the Likud as well Moshe Feiglin’s new party Zehut, Israel’s future is bright as the body politic across the country has begin to shed to darkness of the exile in order to embrace a far more expansive future.  

The challenges ahead are immense and in many ways the Nation of Israel has survived far more dire circumstances, but at the end of the day the leaders of our past were guided by the fears of the Holocaust without concern to the future. If Israel can embrace a complete faith in its cause and tap into the strength of its forefathers it will acquire the ability to deal with its enemies, while properly deciphering wrong from right. Only then will the Zionist Revolution have the ability to fulfill its true potential.

The world finds itself in a moment of chaos. Our leaders have been swept up by foreign ideals and goals.  Ultimately only a clear sighted vision based on truth and faith will lead us out of the darkness we are in.