Category: Regional Analysis

Posted on

IRAN UNDER ATTACK: Multiple Targets Hit in What Appears to Be a Jihadist Suicide Attack

With news continuing to come out of Iran of multiple targets being hit in the country’s capital Tehran, the style and nature of the confrontation lends itself to a Jihadist attack, possibly done by ISIS.

What is known so far is the following:

  • Two Suicide vests were detonated. One at the shrine of Imam Khomeini Mausoleum and the other 18 km away at the Iranian Parliament (Majlis).
  • Attackers have killed seven people and injured many more.
  • The attackers are still inside the parliament building as security forces battle to neutralize them.

Who is Behind the Attack?

Although it is too early to confirm, the style for the attack lends itself to either ISIS or another Jihadist Sunni group who are known to use suicide vest.  Of course these groups have been acting as proxies for the Saudis in Riyadh for years.  This attack comes on the heels of the break in relations between Saudi Arabia and other Sunni states with Qatar over its connection Iran.  If this attack was planned and directed by the new Sunni Alliance, it would signal a shift in using radical Sunni proxies from attacking Israel and the West to their arch nemesis Iran.

When the gunfire stops, Iran will have two options.  The first will be to use the attack as a trigger to take the conflict directly to the Saudis.  The other option will be to cover it over in order to conceal the fact that Iran was hit in the heart of their capital.

Either way, the Sunni-Shiite conflict is about to enter a new phase, which means many more people will be killed.

 

Posted on

Will Iran Attack Israel After the Saudi Move Against Qatar?

The Saudi led move against Qatar has caught everyone in the region by surprise, especially Iran.  The Mullahs in Tehran have always regarded the Saudis as a paper tiger.  The move against Qatar, seemingly backed by the Trump administration changes that assumption.  Furthermore, Saudi Arabia’s call to freeze out Hamas is a serious about face for the Kingdom.  The Iranians know Trump means business.  The growing Sunni alliance along with faster than assumed growth in ties between this alliance and Israel spells trouble for Iran.

With Qatar being isolated (before the Iranian regime could make a move to co-opt it), a reaction is now needed to push back on the American backed Sunni alliance.  Given the US firepower in the Persian Gulf, the likely target for retaliation to create instability is Israel. Iran and their Shiite proxy Hezbollah have a far stronger foothold and vantage point on the Israeli border than the Iranians do in the Gulf.  This, along with Russian firepower and air superiority over Northern Israel, make a strike on Israel that much more probable.

Any military attack on Israel by the Iranians would see Israel fend for itself due to the proximity of Russian troops.  The Trump administration would not risk a direct conflict with Russia over Iran at least at this point.

Although the Saudis felt Qatar’s isolation was necessary to halt an advancing Iran, the next play is in Tehran’s court and the fallout could very well be Israel’s alone. With Turkey, Iran, and Russia solidifying their alliance against the West’s Sunni proxies, the summer of 2017 could very promise to be the breakout of the ultimate Middle Eastern war the world has been trying to avoid.

Posted on

Kurdistan Rising as ISIS Falls Apart

No matter whose propaganda one believes on the nature of ISIS’s demise, the wannabe caliphate is falling apart. With its collapse, their capital in Raqqa is under siege by the US backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which is dominated by the powerful YPG Syrian Kurdish militia allied with Syrian Arabs. The YPG’s forces are rapidly taking control of much of Northern Syria and moving to link directly with the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) in Iraq.

This entire scenario is of course the opposite outcome that Turkey wanted when they unleashed ISIS into Syria and Iraq to start with.  Turkey wanted ISIS to create chaos so Turkish forces could go in and not only clean up the radical Islamists, but wipe out the burgeoning Kurdish entity in Iraq.  Not only has the KRG grown in strength, but the Syrian Kurds have become the main power broker in Syria.

With the US funding and training the YPG militias, Turkey has grown increasingly incensed with the Trump administration. Not only will a defacto Kurdish State arise along its Southern border, this state will essentially be backed by the US. Erdogan, the Turkish president has long opposed any Kurdish entity due to the inspiration it will give to the Kurds in Turkey, who form 10% of the Turkish population and a solid block in the country’s Southern regions.

The US appears aware of the inevitability of an independent Kurdistan.

It was reported in the news last week that the Director of the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) Vincent Stewart told senators during a hearing that the question of independence for the Kurdistan Region is to be expected.

“Kurdish independence is on a trajectory where it is probably not if but when. And it will complicate the situation unless there’s an agreement in Baghdad,” Lt. Gen. Stewart said last Tuesday.

As Kurdistan continues to rise to fill the void left by the ravages of ISIS, a new conflict is about to begin.  Turkey will not sit idly by and allow the very people they have oppressed for generations rise up against them.  The Trump administration will have to choose between a pseudo ally in Turkey or rectify past sell outs of the Kurds committed by both George Bushes and Bill Clinton by allowing a free Kurdistan to solidify its control over its ancient homeland.

United Kurdistan (Image source: Ferhates/Wiki)

 

Posted on

The Five Things That May Make Trump’s Push For Peace Not So Crazy

Although most observers think Trump’s drive for peace between Israel and the “Palestinians” is far fetched, there are indications that he may not be so crazy after all.

 

Iran looms over both Israel and the Gulf Sunni Arabs

With the Iranian army now on the door step of Northern Israel as well as taking over Southern Iraq and menacing the Gulf Arabs, the Sunni Arabs understand that Israel needs to eb openly included in dealing with this menace.

Sunni Oil Leverage is Over

With increased shale oil production and alternative energy sources overtaking foreign oil imports in the USA, American dependency on foreign oil is waning.  This means that Arab oil holds less sway on geo-political issues.  Given this the Arab countries are willing to cut a deal now before all of their influence if finished.

Israel Has Become a Tech Super Power

While the Arab states relied on oil to shape their economies, Israel invested in hi-tech and has now become a global center for technology and innovation exporter.  This has allowed it to develop relationships with countries like China and India giving it more clout on the international arena.

Palestinians Have Become Annoying to Everyone

As the Arab leaders in the region realize that extremism has become a threat to their very existence, the Palestinians are increasingly seen as obstinate in their demands which are becoming stuck in the past.  For the Saudis and the Gulf States, economy and security far outweigh the need to placate the Palestinian street.

Abbas Needs a Deal Before He Becomes Irrelevant

With each passing year Abbas and the Palestinian Authority become increasingly irrelevant. Their people are fed up and many are leaving.  The PA is ripe with large scale graft and everyone knows it. Without a deal Abbas will be remembered as an  old failure by everyone, most of all the residents of the Palestinian Authority.

With Trump flying Air Force 1 from Riyadh to Israel thus breaking down a major barrier between the two countries as well the President becoming the first sitting President to visit the Western Wall, there appears to be real movement. It can be assumed that Trump is ready to push for a regional framework instead of one that focuses only on the Israeli-Palestinian “conflict.” By placing the regional issues into a broader context, creative solutions to longstanding issues are expecting to be floated.

Trump may not succeed, but his attempt is not built on mere slogans, but rather a confluence of real world issues that are rapidly changing who is friend and who is foe.

 

Posted on

While North Korea Draws the World’s Attention, Iran Closes in on Israel

With the Russian, Chinese, and American armed forces now converging on North Korea, another front long thought of as the probable catalyst for a potential world war has seemingly grown quiet. Or has it?

While most of the world awaits some sort of climax to the North Korean standoff, there is something precarious growing around Israel’s Northern border.  The Russians have used the North Korean crisis to allow the Iranians and Hezbollah to tighten their grip on Israel’s Golan border. It is no accident that while everyone is focused on staving off a nuclear war on the Korean peninsula, the Turks, Russians, and Iranians have agreed to create safe-zones in Syria.

The Southern most safe zone buttresses the Golan heights allowing for Iranian troops to reach Israeli territory unhindered. Furthermore the agreement which was struck in Kazakhstan last week ensures that US air coverage cannot fly over these zones.  Israel is now essentially on its own.

As we reported in April, the long known alliance between North Korea and Iran has become more apparent as President Trump seems intent on stopping the North Korean regime from creating havoc in Asia. When North Korea starts, Iran always follows.  With the bellicose statements of Kim Jong-un growing more war like by the day there is a distinct possibility, that this has been a pre-planned diversion.  After all Iran seems has been keeping the North Korean economy afloat through the buying of its nuclear technology.  The Obama administration’s cash infusion into Iran has been moved over to North Korea in order to make sure both programs develop without hindrance.

The noose is tightening with Russian approval around Israel.  Putin of course wants Israel to beg for his protection.  Israel seems intent on going it alone. After Trump’s trip to the Middle East expect the shoe to drop. When Trump moves to take out Kim Jong-un, Israel will be on its own.