Category: Regional Analysis

Posted on

The Real Reason Turkey is Bombing Kurdistan’s Border Region

The Turkish government continued to pound Southern Kurdistan, which is located in Northern Iraq. According to Rudaw, the Turkish military has been increasing bombardments in the area since Friday. The Turkish government claims it is only targeting PKK terrorists, yet this is a ploy often used by Erdgan to justify attacks on the Kurdistan Regional Government.

The latest attack was said to be carried out against PKK forces in the mountainous border area. Turkey’s Anadolu Agency news reported operations by Turkish jets in the Kurdistan Region  on Sunday, “were conducted in the Zap and Matina regions Saturday evening, killing three terrorists, who were preparing for an attack.”

With the September 25th referendum fast approaching and no sign that KRG President Barzani will be able to cancel it, Turkey has begun to step up deterrence by military means instead.  Already heavily involved with attempting to destablize the fledgling Kurdish autonomous area in Northern Syria through airstrikes and his Turkmen militia, the KRG area in Northern Iraq poses a challenge to Turkey.

Turkey and the KRG actually do nearly $8 billion in oil sales per year. Turkey and the Kurdistan Regional Government  signed a 50-year energy deal, which resumed the flow of Kurdish oil to international markets. The deal went against Baghdad’s demands for an immediate halt to sales.

With these figures, Turkey cannot directly go against the KRG, even if a referendum will be pave the way for independence.

“Holding the referendum will not have a negative impact on the economic relationship between Turkey and the Kurdistan Region, but rather it strengthens the bilateral relation,” the KDP official told Turkey’s state-run news outlet, Anadolu Agency. The official added that the KRG is able to satisfy more than 50 percent of Turkey’s energy demands.

If this is the case, then what is Erdogan’s strategy in relation to the Kurdish Regional Government on Iraq?

After all there are more than 52 oil companies operating in the Kurdistan Region’s oil fields and more than 20 additional oil reserves are ready to operate. Erdogan cannot simply go to war with a region that supplies so much of its oil.

Turkey Wants a Kurdish Vassal State in Norther Iraq

Long suspicious of any independent Kurdish State, Erdogan and the Turkish military have opted to tacitly support a compliant Kurdistan held within what is today the KRG in order to utilize its political structure to control the Kurds drive for true independence while keeping the oil flowing into Turkey.

Turkey knows that the soon to be independent Kurdistan, held within land locked borders has only one way to get its oil out and that is though Turkey. Turkey can come off as an unlikely benefactor of a Kurdish state while controlling the very state it claims it supports. This strategy requires Turkey to cut off Western Kurdistan, which is in Northern Syria while also ciolently repressing its 20 million Kurds in Suthern Turkey.

Turkey’s continued bombardments of the KRG is a message to Masoud Barzani that he is only allowed to push for Kurdish independence in name only or else the Northern Iraqi region could end up much like Northern Syria.

 

Posted on

Jordan Remains at War with Israel

Reports suggest that King Abdullah of Jordan is angry at Netanyahu for publicly praising the Israeli embassy security guard who was stabbed earlier in the week in Amman.

“This kind of behavior — which is unacceptable and provocative on all levels — has made us all angry… and feeds extremism in the region,” the King said of Netanyahu.

“The Israeli prime minister is obligated to act responsibly and prosecute the murderer, instead of exploiting the crime for internal political purposes,” he added.

Of course none of this should surprise those who are avid watchers of the Hashemite family and their dealings in Jordan.

Caroline Glick wrote the following in March:

“The Muslim Brotherhood is the second largest political force in the country. Although Jordanians were revolted in 2015 when Islamic State (ISIS) in Syria burned alive a downed Jordanian pilot, ISIS has no shortage of sympathizers in wide swaths of Jordanian society. More than 2,000 Jordanians joined ISIS in Syria and several thousand more ISIS members and sympathizers are at large throughout the kingdom.”

The King has become adept in playing all sides. When he needs to fan the flames of hate to the Jewish people he does. The opposite is also true. When he needs help against challengers to the throne, he ends up asks America for help.

The peace treaty signed in 1994 has grown more and more worthless as the King’s rhetoric continues to become far more radical than in the past.

Why is He Still King?

Israel and the USA feel they need King Abdullah on the thrown.  Essentially this boils down to dealing with the evil you know rather than the chaos you don’t. Israel has gone out of its way to ensre the King lives simply because the alternative is chaos. Jordan’s stability has been the hallmark of America’s foreign policy.

Posted on

The Growing Intersection Between Turkey, Trump, Kurdistan, and the Golan

The publication by Turkey of more than 200 US bases and places of presence across Western Kurdistan, now occupied by Syria drew the ire of the Trump administration and the US Defense establishment. The Turkish government went ahead and published this list and map in protest of the US policy in supporting the growing autonomy of Western Kurdistan (Northern Syria), which runs along the border of Turkey in Northern Syria.

“The discussion of specific troop numbers and locations would provide sensitive tactical information to the enemy which could endanger Coalition and partner forces,” wrote Col. Joe Scrocca, coalition director of public affairs.

“Publishing this type of information would be professionally irresponsible and we respectively [sic] request that you refrain from disseminating any information that would put Coalition lives in jeopardy.”

Turkey views the rise of an independent Kurdistan as a non-starter, unless it is contained to the KRG in Northern Iraq.  What is taking shape now though are two autnomous areas, which if joined would inspire Kurds living in Northern Kurdistan, occupied today by Turkey, to fight vigorously for their independence.

It is no secret that the US has ben aiding the YPG (Syrian Kurdish militias) and has rolled them into the broader Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), but the continued strengthening of this militia has crossed a red line for Erdogan.

Did Trump trade the Southwest of Syria for Western Kurdistan?

Despite the current opposition from Washington to the KRG’s drive towards a referendum on independence, the Trump administration still views the Kurds as the best avenue to push back on Iran and stablize the region. There is a four way tussle for Syria: Russia, Iran, Turkey, and the USA. Some of the sides work together and others don’t, but these four countries are busy establishing zones of control.

Up until the G-20 Ceasefire with Russia, it appeared that the USA and Russia were heading to a direct confrontation in the Southwestern part of Syria.  To offset this, the Russians backed Turkey’s assault on the indigenous Kurds to the North.  Putin hates Erdogan, but was ready to use him to battle Washington. The ceasefire changes things. With relative quiet in the Southwest, Putin can put the brakes on supporting Turkey’s assault against the Kurdish directed SDF.

Trump’s strategy here is clear. Consolodate the US gains in Western Kurdistan (Northern Syria), while letting Israel and Russia learn to work together in the Southwest. Trump now has a fighting force in Syria that is not only moderate, but is experienced in pushing back against ISIS and other Sunni radicals. More than that he pins Erdogan down, preventing the neo-Sultan from implementing his goals of expanding Turkey.

This strategy seems to benefit the US, but has been seen as dangerous by Israel due to the partnership between Russia and Iran. Given the propensity for Iran to utilize the Russian army as cover to move in on Israel, the tacit agreement with Russia is dangerous. Iran has already moved into the DMZ East of Israel’s Golan. With Hezbollah contantly infiltrating the Har Dov area in the Northern Golan, a similar presence to the East under the protection of Russian troops appears too much Israel to put up with.

With Hezbollah preparing for war, Israel is fast working to establish a deconfliction policy with Russia in the greater Golan area.

Posted on

Does Russia Have a Deal With Israel on Quneitra De-escalation?

With Russian forces moving into Quneitra as early as July 16th, the realization that Israel is being cornered by Iranian and Hezbollah contingents has now become apparent.  Local Quneitra community councils welcomed the opportunity to force “militants associated with Zionist entity” to lay down their arms.

Russia is aware that the Netanyahu government is not happy about the ceasefire deal hammered out between Trump and Putin at the G-20 on July 7th.

Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister had this to say:

“I can guarantee that we have done everything and the US side has done everything to ensure that Israel’s security interests within this framework are taken fully into account.”

There is more to this statement than just acknowledgment.

Former National Security Council head Yaakov Amidror said the following on Monday in relation to the Iranian presence so close to the Golan:

“Israel may need to take military action to prevent Iran or Hezbollah from setting up permanent bases in Syria.” 

This is no accidental comment. Amidror is a close confidant of the Prime Minister and his comment was meant to send a message to the Russians.

The idea that Iran and Hezbollah is setting up permanent bases so close to Israel’s Golan Heights may appear to be a dangerous step for Israel.  The Russian forces that have now entered the region have only complicated the situation. The peril for Israel cannot be overstated.  However, Amidror’s comments contain a hint of possible solution to the menace forming on Israel’s border.

The Russian’s have at times allowed Israel to take out Hezbollah and Iranian arms transfers, with analysts observing that Russia itself tipped off the Israeli airforce to the location of the hidden arms and gave it fly by capabilities to destroy the targets.  If Israel can convince Putin it is far better to let Israel defend itself by destroying Iranian and Hezbollah fighters on its border than making the IDF attack covertly, then a similar relation can develop even within the framework of the current ceasefire.

More than 18 months ago I wrote the following:

Many analysts believe that Russia, in the long-term, has no interest in allowing Iran to take over the Middle East. Russia views its relationship with Iran as a tactical necessity to prop up Assad and destroy Sunni radicals. After this task is done, the experts in this particular camp believe their paths will diverge.  

If this is so, then logic lends itself to believe Putin wants relationships and long term strategic partnerships with countries that are not only stable, but also share similar security and economic outlooks with himself, and yet will not step in his way. Israel is one of these countries.

We are about to see if this theory holds weight.  If Russia does not prevent Iran and Hezbollah from building up their forces on Israel’s border, then Russia either will have to allow the Israeli airforce to neutralize the growing threat or risk losing leverage over Israel.

Putin has spent much of the Syrian Civil War navigating a variety of local interests while cementing Russia’s control over the Northern Levant. The question remains: At what point does Putin jettison his relationship with Iran in favor of a more moderate and stable relationship with far more rational actors?

If Russia truly wants a stable Middle East then we may be about to see the beginning of a Russian-Iranian divergence.

 

Posted on

Why Does Israel Oppose the Syrian Ceasefire?

Reports in the media indicate that Prime Minister Netanyahu opposes the ceasefire in Southwestern Syria. The Hill quotes a source from Haaretz that “Netanyahu told French President Emmanuel Macron during a meeting Sunday that Israel does not support the agreement.”

The question is why.  Afterall, on paper quiet in the Southwest on the border of Israel’s Golan Heights is a good thing.  No one in the Israeli government would argue with quiet, yet the nature of the ceasefire allows for Russian observers to man the border region.  This is a huge capitulation on behalf of the Trump administration.  Up until the ceasefire, Israel could, when necessary hit back against Iranian, Hezbollah, and Syrian movements and arms smuggling.  Now that Russian are essentially in the same locations, Israel will now have to make sure not to hit Russian forces while battling parties aimed at its destruction.

More than this, Putin seems intent on playing both sides.  While he has set up a “deconfliction mechanism” with Israel, Putin keeps on moving the goal posts closer to Israel, which effectively renders the “deconfliction mechanism” pointless.

Most analysts, including myself are betting on a new round of fighting between Hezbollah and Israel sooner rather than later, regardless of the Trump-Putin ceasefire. Israel will have to hit quick and successfully in order minimize the amount of destruction it receives back at home.  With Russia in the mix, this ability to wipe out Hezbollah missile infrastructure is severely hampered, especially since Iran and Syria have openly allowed Hezbollah to set up forward bases from Syrian territory. Considering our report yesterday about the ballistic missile factory now set up in Syria, Trump’s ceasefire appears to not only harm Israel, but ultimately America.

The Trump administration might have lowered the risks of going against Putin in Syria, but the White House’s decision has left the region far more imperiled than before.