Category: Horn of Africa

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Yemen, Iran, and The Coming Attack On Israel

The new alliance between Israel and the UAE as well as Bahrain has upended the Middle East in many ways. From technology and innovation partnerships to military drills and intelligence sharing, the Abraham Accords has made the countries involved the most powerful the region has seen.

None of this has been lost on the Iranians, who understand that despite Biden’s desire to jump back into the nuclear deal, there will be little he can do about the growing strength of the Sunni-Israel alliance.

This is why the Iranians are using Yemen as a forward battle against Saudi clout on the Arabian peninsula. This was clearly demonstrated when the new Saudi backed Yemen government arrived at the Aden airport only to be attacked by Iranian backed Houthis. 26 people were killed the triple bombing and more than 60 wounded.

The blasts were so loud they were heard in Israel.

The message from Iran is clear: Don’t think about joining the Abraham Accords.

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China, Djibouti, and the Control Over The Red Sea

Although most observers have focused their attention on the Persian Gulf, Yemen has strategic value to Iran as rests across the Bab al-Mandab Strait from Djibouti. This is one of the most important choke points for shipping in the world. Freighters travel through Bab al-Mandab Strait and bring oil and other commodities to the West.

This is why China has gone out of its way to build up its base in Djibouti, effectively giving it an advantage in controlling the Red Sea. Furthermore, Beijing has gone out of its way to invest in Eritrea and Ethiopia, securing most of the Horn of Africa.

This is why Saudi Arabia and other Sunni states have long seen the war in Yemen as critical in keeping the Chinese-Iranian alliance to only one side of the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

Message to Israel

With Israeli arms sales and agri-tech development in Ethiopia and other countries on the Horn of Africa, Israel is hoping to keep pressure on Beijing to play fair by keeping the struggle economic.

Iran’s message to Israel is clear. Yemen may have a new government, but it still the Houthis that call the shots and with them the Red Sea and its shipping routes are up for grabs.

Iran is effectively using much of China’s investment in its Belt and Road Initiative to help build a net against Israel and her Sunni allies.

Yemen is critical in controlling both sides of the Bab al-Mandab Strait and with it, a crushing blow to peace in the region.

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Ethiopian Troops Fire On UN Staffers In Tigray After Defying Checkpoints

In the scramble to try to find out whats going in the Tigray province of Ethiopia, UN staffers were fired upon because they defied the Ethiopian army checkpoints.

Redwan Hussein, spokesman for the Ethiopian government’s task force for Tigray, explained to reporters that the U.N. team passed through two checkpoints without stopping. The continued further hastily driving into an unauthorized area.

“When they were about to break the third one they were shot at and detained,” he said.

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The weeks old conflict has seen the federal Ethiopian government under PM Abi Ahmed crush the TPLF resistance in Tigray after they defied the central government. Ahmed has been focused on centralizing Ethiopia and breaking down the stranglehold over the Ethiopian economy that the TPLF has had over the last 20 years.

The UN staffers were told not to go into certain areas and they defied orders. Some were arrested and others shot at.

The international community has become worried about the Ethiopian conflict spiraling out of control and splintering the country along ethnic lines. Ethiopia is seen as a regional powerhouse, which is why China is hoping for a quick end to the conflict and a consolidation under Abi Ahmed’s moves. This is why Eritrea, who was once at war with Ethiopia has been interested in helping Addis Ababa put down the insurgency in the North. Both need stability in order to lock further Chinese investment across the Horn of Africa.

The UN’s defiance of Ethiopian orders in Tigray is more than just a mistake. There are those within the agency who seek a balance to Beijing’s expansion across the strategic Horn of Africa and may be willing to use Tigray to get it.

While there is a clear humanitarian crisis forming, the international community mostly European led appear to be exacerbating Ethiopian tensions with the outside world.

Jan Egeland, head of the internationalist Norwegian Refugee Council has jumped in, exhorting Addis Ababa to allow unfettered aid.

The Secretary-General of the United Nations chimed in as well:

Tigray may be a looming disaster, but it is unclear why the UN sees fit to focus outsized energy on it as opposed to the crisis between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh or even elsewhere on the African continent like Buhari’s ethnic cleansing of the Igbo.

This sort of over focus by Western international organizations unintentionally pushes countries like Ethiopia further into the pocket of China who asks no questions, except for demanding total obedience.