Category: Borders

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WAR ESCALATES: Why Did Iran Just Shoot Missiles Into Syria?

The war in Syria has gone from intensified to explosive as the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced that it fired several ground o ground missiles in from Western Iran into Syria’s Deir Ezzor region in the country’s East.

The purpose, according to the Iranians was a realiation for the attack on Tehran by ISIS on June 7th.

Most likely the Iranian missile attack on Eastern Syria was far more a message for the US coalition than a retaliation against ISIS.

Three points to consider:

  1. The proximity in time to the downing of a Syrian Warplane makes the missile attack a likely soft-retaliation for the US attack within sovereign Syria.
  2. The Iranians need a powerplay as the SDF/YPG are moving South and North in a rush to pick up the pieces as ISIS falls apart. The message is clear: “Don’t expect a post ISIS Syria to be a cake walk.”
  3. Iran wanted to send a message to Israel: “We can already reach you.”

As the Syrian war seems to be exploding in a far more dangerous and chaotic way all the issues surrounding the war are coming to a head.  The next move is now Trump’s…is he willing to stop Iran?

 

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CRISIS IN SYRIA: US Forces Shoot Down Syrian Warplane for the First Time

The Syrian conflict moved one step closer to all out war between the US and Syria/Iran/Russia as the US led coalition shot down a Syrian government Su-22 fighter near the town of Tabqa as it was caught bombing Syrian Democratic Forces, an umbrella group of Syrian Kurdish and Arab rebel forces. The SDF was fighting ISIS in the area in preparation for its upcoming battle to take Raqqa.

 

 

What’s Next?

The mission creep pushed by the American government is clear to everyone at this point.  What is not clear is whether the Trump administration is willing to put more than special forces on the ground.

The following three points should be looked out for in the coming week in reaction to the Coalition’s downing of the Syrian warplane:

  1. Retaliation against the US and Jordanian forces now in the South-East of Syria
  2. Hezbollah Attack on Israel
  3. Russian aiding Syria against the SDF and YPG in the North

The Trump administration’s policy is to use local forces to fight its ground wars while providing logistics and air support.  In the expanded Syrian war the world is now entering, this may not be an option anymore. For example, Israel has been slowly creating a buffer zone East of the Golan, but as Southern Syria falls to government troops, Israel may not be able to hold off from entering the war in a more direct manner.

Trump’s plan seems to have one foot in and one foot out of Syria.  That works when towing the line between the semi-isolationist stance he took when running and the need to have an effect on the outcome of the war.  However, Russia and Iran are not holding back and it is not clear for how long the YPG/SDF as well as Israel’s allies close to the Golan can hold them back.

The downing of the Syrian jet maybe the first response to the growing Russian/Syrian/Iranian juggernaut.

 

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Will America Move CENTCOM from Qatar?

As the Qatar crisis heads into its second week another shoe is evidently about to drop.  The AP reported that the U.A.E.’s ambassador in Washington, Yousef Al Otaiba, urged the Trump administration to consider moving its air base out of Qatar.

“Maybe someone in Congress should have a hearing and just say, you know, ‘Should we consider moving it?’” the ambassador said in Washington on Tuesday. “And maybe not moving the entire base. Maybe just distribute to various countries so you don’t have all your eggs in one basket.”

The airbase is home to CENTCOM the hub for the US military in the region.  If the US would move the enormaous base Qatar would lose the last piece of leverage it has with the West.

Although behind the scenes the US has been supporting the Saudi led maneuvers against Qatar, it was not until recently that President Trump iterated his support for the Saudi blockade.

“One of the big things that we did, and you are seeing it now in Qatar and all of the things that are actually going on in a very positive fashion, we are stopping the funding of terrorism,” Trump said. “We are going to stop the funding of terrorism. It’s not an easy fight but that is a fight that we are going to win. We are going to starve the beast.”

Although moving CENTCOM is highly unlikely at this point, nothing should be ruled out. With Saudi Arabia moving fast agianst radical Jihad, the time for action is clearly now. If the US does indeed move CENTCOM, it may be the trigger that will start the next round of war in the region.

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Are Post ISIS Alliances Already Taking Shape?

As the Raqqa operation gets underway, with the SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) ploughing forward into the “capital” of ISIS, the terror group’s leaders and fighters are said to have already travelled to safe havens along the middle Euphrates.  With the American backed SDF bogged down in strett to street fighting, Iranian paramilitary units are pouring in from where they helped fight to free Mosul to Eastern Syria to destroy the heads of ISIS.

This struggle for land as ISIS collapses is forming the beginnings of regional boundaries that in essence brand new lines between ethnic units as well as defined frontiers of regional alliances.

Rising up from the rubble of ISIS are two clearly definied groupings.

The first consists of Russia, Iran, Syria (Assad), Turkey, and Qatar.  None of these countries trust eachother, but work together under a common interest in battling back America as well as seeking a piece of what they see as a rising Middle Eastern hegemony.

The second group is made up of the United States, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, UAE, Jordan, Egypt, Kurds and Israel.  This grouping sees the first group as an existential threat and has been conjoled to work together by the Trump administration.

With the fall of ISIS a matter of weeks, the real battle will come after. Iran has used the chaos to reach to the Israeli border.  They have shown the ability to capitalize on the weaknesses of their enemies. Besides Iran, Hezbollah can now turn its sites on Israel.

The Middle Eastern alliances now taking shape even before the last of the caliphate are buried not only put Iran im the drivers seat, but increase the likelihood of war sooner rather than later.  The Syckes-Picot agreement, the document based colonialist and neo-colonialist pinciples set in motion by France and Germany is becoming irrelevant as a new set of states and mini states take shape.

As the chaos spreads throughout the region and beyond, the Saudis backed by Israeli tehnology will attempt to push back on the Shiite gains in order to create a buffer between the Kingdom and its enemies. The Kurds backed covertly by Israel and overtly by America will be encouraged to push forward in order to stabilize Northern Syria and Iraq and break the link between a power hungry Turkey and their allies in Qatar.

Be prepared the Great Game of the Middle East is about to begin. It could very well be far more destructive than the havoc ISIS has caused.

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Qatar Crisis Puts Hamas on the Ropes as Israel Cuts Electricity to Gaza

In the latest twists and turns in the unfolding Sunni crisis with Qatar, Israel has been drawn into the Saudi stand-off with its fellow Gulf country by way of cutting the Gaza Strip’s electricity to only two hours a day. In coordination with PA president Mahmoud Abbas, the Israeli security cabinet has further reduced electricity to the Hamas run strip.  Qatar has been Hamas’ foremost backer. One of the points the Saudis have required Qatar to follow through on in order to lift their blockade is for Qatar to break off ties to the terror group.

With Abbas and Israel coordinating against Hamas, while Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, UAE, and Egypt tighten the screws on Qatar, the potential for war is increasing daily.  Abbas has cut off payments to PA workers in the Gaza Strip as well as pulling back on transferring vitals to Gaza Strip residents.

Hamas has responded with the following statement feeding fears of an open conflict:

“The decision of the occupation to reduce the electricity to Gaza at the request of PA President Mahmoud Abbas is catastrophic and dangerous. It will accelerate the deterioration and explode the situation in the Strip,” said Hamas spokesperson Abdel Latif al-Qanua. “Those who will bear the consequences of this decision are the Israeli enemy, who is besieging the Gaza Strip, and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.”

What is most surprising about Israel’s move to cut Gaza’s electricity is the amount of coordination between Egypt, Israel, and the PA to ensure that Israel can follow through with the electricity reduction.  The Qatar crisis has given the emerging Sunni-Israel alliance its first opportunity to test their ability to work together despite not reaching a coveted peace agreement.

Regional Peace First

The coordination between the Sunni alliance and Israel has been unprecedented. It sets the stage for Trump’s path to peace, which is to arrive at a regional deal before Israel and the Palestinians reach an improbable agreement on final status issues. This puts both the Gaza front and the Qatar blockade into focus as a real test to to Israel-Sunni coordination against common regional adversaries like organized terror groups and Iran.