Author: Micha Gefen

Micha is a government policy analyst for Israel Rising.
Posted on

END OF NATO: Turkey Bombs US Backed Kurds in Afrin

The Turkish army announced the beginning of “Operation Olive Branch” earlier today (Jan. 20th) and immediately started bombing the Kurdish dominated enclave of Afrin in an attempt to wipe out what they call “terrorists.”  However, the Syrian Kurds make up the majority of the US trained SDF and are heavily armed with American weaponry.  Afrin may be an isolated enclave, but it is backed up by America.

Turkey’s Erdogan insists that once he is done in Afrin he will move to the main part of what the Kurds call Rojava. Rojava and the area the SDF controls is nearly 1/3 of Syria.  The SDF has been the most effective fighting force against ISIS and with both Secretary of State Tillerson and Gen. Mattis announcing the need to keep American forces in Syria after ISIS, the SDF is critical for American influence in a post ISIS Syria.

To this point, Erdogan senses that the SDF and the expanded territory of an autonomous Syrian Kurdistan are a permanent fixture. His invasion of Afrin and Rojava  is serious.

Want More In Depth Analysis?  Subscribe to Our Premium Newsletter Today!

Will the US Fight Back?

Yes.  The Kurds in Syria are not the KRG in Iraq.  The US government sees the SDF as a critical component of stabalizing Syria in a way that is beneficial to US interests. The US has already provided ManPads to the SDF to knock Turkish planes from the sky.

Turkey may be able to push the Kurds out of Afrin in the early phases, but it will run into heavy resistance as it continues.

Is this the End of NATO?

If there is a direct clash between the US and Turkey, then yes.  The fact is, Turkey has been on its way out of NATO for a while, but this accelerates the pace of Turkey leaving the Cold War relic. Yet, this does not mean Turkey leaving under these auspices is a good thing. However hated Turkey is within the ranks of NATO, a direct clash between Turkey and a fellow member state’s proxy has the potential to shake foundations of NATO.  Of course this is Erdogan’s goal.

Where is Russia?

Putin has already moved his troops and most of his airforce from Afrin as a way to steer clear of the conflict.  Putin’s goal is to allow Turkey and the US backed Kurds to take each other down while Russia cleans up after the mess.  Russia’s secondary goal is splinter NATO as he pushes forward with his expansion.

The Russian Ministry of Defense issued the following statement:

“The command of the Russian group of troops in Syria has taken measures to ensure the security of Russian servicemen located in the district of Afrin, where the Turkish Armed Forces launched a special operation against the Kurdish armed groups,” the statement reads.

The Russians also said that the US supplies of advance weapons to the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) in Syria triggered Turkey’s military operation against the Kurdish militias in Afrin.

“Uncontrolled deliveries of modern weapons, including reportedly the deliveries of the man-portable air defense systems, by the Pentagon to the pro-US forces in northern Syria, have contributed to the rapid escalation of tensions in the region and resulted in the launch of a special operation by the Turkish troops,” the ministry said.

In the coming days it will become apparant that NATO, Turkey, and the US backed Kurds are moving the region into an expanded conflict that no one will find a clean way out of.

G

Posted on

Chaos Continues With Turkey Threatening to Invade Syrian Kurdistan

Turkey’s President Erdogan responded to the announcement of the US intention to train a 30,000 strong Syrian Democratic Forces to man the Syrian borders with Turkey and Iraq with increased threats of destroying the Kurdish dominated SDF.

“A country we call an ally is insisting on forming a terror army on our borders,” Erdogan said of the United States in a speech in Ankara. “What can that terror army target but Turkey?”

“Our mission is to strangle it before it’s even born.”

Turkey views the YPG unit which make up the majority of the SDF as an extension of the PKK which Turkey and most countries have labeled a terrorist organization.  However, the US views the SDF as essential to destroying ISIS and stablizing Syria.

Erdogan has utilized the Kurds equal terrorist card numerous times to justify attacking them in Syria and elsewhere.  Yet, the truth is the opposite. It was Erdogan and his family who helped to create and protect ISIS through financial assistance, safe passageways, and emergency medical treatment.

Turkey views the rise of an autonomous Kurdish region in Northern Syria similar to the one in Iraq as an existantial threat.  After all Turkey has occupied the heavily Kurdish areas of South and Southeastern Turkey for centuries.  There are 20 million Kurds in Turkey.

All of this has driven Erdogan to prove that he is indeed serious. Reports from Nusaybinden, Turkey, which borders Afrin have claimed armored vehicles and soldiers now entering the Kurdish controlled area.  Afrin is an isolated enclave and lies to the West of the main SDF areas.  Yet, this first push if successful could very well lead Turkey to try for the main center of the SDF further to the East.

Turkish tanks rolling through Nusaybinden on the way to enter Syria. (nusaybinden.com)

 

With the SDF becoming a main pillar of Washington’s proxy coalition against Iranian expansion in the region, it is hard to see the Trump administration continuing to turn a blind eye to Erdogan’s behavior.

Posted on

COLD WAR RENEWED: Israel and Kurdish SDF are Now Trump’s Weapons Against Iran

The New Cold War between the USA and Russia-China is beginning to affect the Middle East in ways that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago.  It had been previously believed that the Trump administration would continue to pull back from the Middle East, effectively allowing Putin to deal with ISIS and thus cement his control over the region.  This pullback reached it peak with the failure of the US to pick sides between the Shiite run Iraq and its Kurdish autonomous region over the fate of Kirkuk.

With Iran’s fingerprints increasingly apparent in Iraq and more obvious in Syria, the US government has decided to change course and confront the Shiite menace and its Russian backers with a far more ambitious strategy than ever before.

President Trump, campaigning against direct US involvement in the Middle East has had his team draft a strategic plan that will help a weakened US military confront these strategic threats head on. Two partners are emerging to help the US push back on the strength Russian-Shiite grip over the Middle East.

The first is the Kurdish dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Northern Syria.  This force is fully US trained and led most of the successful operations against ISIS in the Syrian arena.  The SDF areas border Turkey and reach far South and East as well as Afrin to the West.  The challenge for the Trump administration is to contain Turkey’s threats against the Kurdish positions in Afrin.

Strengthening the view that the US is busy turning the SDF areas into a semi-autonomous Kurdish state in Northern Syria are confirmed reports that the US is busy setting up a 30,000 strong SDF force to deal with border issues.  In an email to Reuters the Coalition’s Press Office said the following:

“Efforts are taken to ensure individuals serve in areas close to their homes. Therefore, the ethnic composition of the force will be relative to the areas in which they serve.”

“More Kurds will serve in the areas in northern Syria. More Arabs will serve in areas along the Euphrates River Valley and along the border with Iraq to the south.”

The rise of the SDF has been a sore spot between the US and Turkey.  The increased shelling of Afrin will inevitably test this relationship at its core.

The second partner is Israel.  Towards the end of Obama’s tenure, Prime Minister Netanyahu decided to approach the growing presence of Russia in the Middle East within the context of neutrality.  Afterall, in the absence of a coherent and clear US policy the Israeli government needed to be allowed a good deal of autonomy in keeping back the growing Iranian and Hezbollah menace.  Putin granted Israel freedom of movement as long the latter checked with him first.

With Putin allowing Iran to build up its presence so close to Israel despite assurances from Moscow, Israel and the Trump administration’s needs have overlapped.  Like the SDF to the North, the Trump administration sees Israel as thee bulwark of its containment strategy against the Russia-Iran axis.  The Jerusalem declaration was the beginning of this consolidation behind Israel’s needs.  This of course effectively buried the Palestinian issue permanently.  Afterall, the Jerusalem announcement triggered the Palestinian’s own self-destruction by their admission.

Palestinian permanent president Mahmoud Abbas said the following at a PLO meeting:

“What would you want if Jerusalem were to be lost? Would you want to make a state with Abu Dis as its capital? That’s what they are offering us now. Abu Dis.”

“We won’t take orders from anyone,” Abbas said. “We told Trump we will never accept his [peace] plan. His ‘deal of the century’ is the slap in the face of the century, and we will not accept it.”

In the same speech Abbas cursed Trump that his house be destroyed and his family thrown out on the street. This was a huge mistake.

By backing out of negotiations the Palestinians have self-buried their own aspirations. Within the context of the New Cold War, this essentially means sidelined indefinitely.  With the New Cold war far more hot than its predecessor, false narratives such as the Palestinians cannot out live the needs of the USA or the Trump administration’s unfolding Middle East strategy.




Posted on

Iran Infiltrates Israel’s Heartland

The Shin Bet officially confirmed that an advanced Iranian espionage network has been operating in Judea and Samaria, Israel’s Biblical heartland.

Iran enlisted the help of Muhammad Maharma, 29-year-old computer science student from Hebron. Despite being the lead in Israel, the Shin Bet said Maharma received his directions from an Iranian operative in South Africa.

The network had two other members named Dia’a Sarahnehand  Nour Maharma, both 22 and both also from Hebron.

“The operation demonstrates the Iranian involvement in encouraging terror attacks against Israel and also shows the forces being sent by Iran to countries around the world, in order to advance enemy activities against Israel,” the Shin Bet said in a statement.

“The operation demonstrates the Iranian involvement in encouraging terror attacks against Israel.”

According to the Shin-Bet, Muhammad Maharma was enlisted to work for Iran in 2015, by his cousin, Backer Maharma. Backer Maharma moved to South Africa from Hebron where he started working for Iranian intelligence.

“Backer even introduced Muhammad, on a number of occasions, to Iranian officials, some of whom visited [South Africa] from Tehran in order to meet him,” the Shin Bet said.

The Shin-Bet’s  investigation uncovered that South Africa has become  a “significant front for finding, enlisting and deploying agents to Israel and the West Bank” for Iranian intelligence.

The Iranian network based in Hebron was given a various directives by Iranian intelligence servises.  These included recruiting people to carry out shooting and suicide bombing attacks.

Most shockingly, the network was supposed to recruit Israeli Arabs specifically high level journalists to spy on and take pictures of sensitive locations.

Three were charged in a military court for attempting to join an illegal organization. Maharma was charged additionally with contacting an enemy agent, and receiving money from an enemy nation.

The Shin-Bet’s report comes at a sensitive time in the Palestinian Authority’s relationship with the Israeli government.  As the PA shops around for new benefactors due to the Trump administration’s threat to cut them off, Iran becomes the most likely address.  Of course the Iranian people might have second thoughts on their government wasting even more money on failed Arab initiatives.

Posted on

While Putin and Bibi Speak, Syria Installs Latest Russian Air Defense System Near Damascus

According to the Israeli media, Prime Minister Netanyahu and Russian President Vladamir Putin held a phone conversation in order to ensure that Russia was kept abrest of Israel’s security needs despite the latter being a part of the Iranian axis.  These types of conversations have been going on for over a year in order to minimize friction between the IDF/IAF and Russian forces in Syria.

These conversations have been promoted to the Israeli public as a way assuage fears by claiming to use Russia to help mitigate the forward movement of the Iranian axis towards the border with Israel.  The challenge with this sort of thinking is that we see that after the fall of Beit Jinn, Russia has done little to keep Iran and Hezbollah outside the deconfliction zone.

The other pervading theory is that Israel has a deal worked out with Putin that the IAF is allowed to attack Hezbollah, Iranian, or even Syrian positions within Syria if they are deemed a threat to Israel. Yesterday’s installation of the Russian S-125 Pechora Batteries (a Soviet-designed system originally built in the 1960s) in the Marj Ruhayyil airbase located south of Damascus puts to rest this line of thinking.

According to AMN the modernized variant in question is reportedly the M2 version of the S-125 Pechora, “which in addition to having an improved kill probability record, is technically capable of tracking and intercepting low-flying cruise missiles.”

Why is this important? The assumption has been that the IAF would be able to attack Syrian-Hezbollah-Iranian forces with impunity.  The Russians clearly have other ideas.

Does Putin Want to Destroy Israel?

Not at all. He wants to use the Iranian axis he has been tacitly covering for to hold Israel at bay and force its government to turn to him for its needs. While the situation is not at that point yet, it is rapidly approaching.  The Trump administration of course understands this and appears to be ready to back up Israel.  The Jerusalem announcement was as much part of Trump’s calculus in relation to Russia’s moves as it was a declaration of support that flowed from his own beliefs.  For Trump the two aligned.

With more and more IDF forces quietly being moved North, the stakes are high on both sides of the Golan.  Russia’s play at attempting to militarily isolate Israel by using forces hellbent on its destruction is a gamble that could trigger a far wider war.