Are the Kurds of Syria about to be Cornered by Turkey and Russia?

Enemies make great friends when interests converge.

Turkey has announced the imminent launch of a serious military operation in the Afrin district of Northern Syria to wipe out the Kurdish militias in the area.

Pro Syrian news sources have reported that Turkish backed Free Syrian Army rebels have defected to the Syrian regime army to fight the Kurds. Although it is hard to tell if this is an isolated event, the fact that Turkey inked a deal to buy the Russia S-400 anti-aircraft system shows how the once formidable ememies have come together against a common foe, the US and its Sunni Arab Alliance.

The Kurds have long played both sides, but recently the Trump administration have gone out of its way to court the Syrian Kurdish militas (YPG) and merged them with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).  The combination of moderate Syrian Arabs with elite Kurdish militias have proved pivotal in fighting the Islamic State.

With the coopting of the Northern wing of the FSA, which as opposed to its Southern wing is highly staffed by Turkish elements, the Kurds will have to contend with an Erdogan emboldened by Russian backing and a rebel force that is willing to fight to death to drive the Kurds back from their positions.

Israel and America Must Take a Stand

With the Kurdish army in Syria on the line, Israel and America must take a stand and stop the coming Turkish onlaught from decimating the one fighting force that has proven successful against Jihadist and stablizing for a post Assad Syria. If the Kurds fall in the North it will be another setback for America, Israel, and their Sunni Arab allies. Worst of all it would be just one more of a long list of American let downs in helping the truly indigenous Kurds finally reclaim their ancient homeland.

SYRIA CRISIS: Fighting Intensifies Near the Israeli Golan as Second Mortar Hits Israel

With all the talk and excitement of the arrival of the USS H.W. Bush Aircraft carrier at the port in Haifa, an ominous battle keeps moving closer to Israel’s Eastern border.

For the second time in one hour mortars from a battle between Syrian regime forces and rebel militia has hit the Israeli Golan.  On Friday the IDF retaliated again for a stray mortar. With two mortars hitting Israel, the IDF will have no choice but to hit back.

Due to the rebel (FSA and Jihadi Forces) continued assault of Al-Baath, the location of the forward Iranian base in South-West Syria, the IDF will again use the opportunity to attack Assad’s forces.

The initial assault began just over a week ago, but has stalled in its goal of taking Al-Baath and splitting the regime’s control over the Damascs-Daraa highway. The Syrian regime forces and their Iranian allies have brough the battle close to the Israeli border, in fact 3 kilometers away.

According to the Syrian regime there are still Israeli drones flying over al-Baath and seemingly posted there for a follow up attack.

Given the fact that Prime Minister Netanyahu has insisted that Israel won’t allow Syrian and Iranian troops to take up positions on the Golan border, Israel may have not choice but to step up attacks with or without continued provocation.

Has the Free Syrian Army Held off the Assad Regime’s Assault on the Golan Heights?

The command of rebel forces in Quneitra, East of the Israeli Golan published an infographics presentation where the group summarized the losses the Syrian regime army and its Iranian allies incurred during the last five days of fighting in the region.

As Israel Rising noted earlier in the week, the Free Syrian Army Quneitra division, which is tacitly supported by Israel, launched a major offensive against the Assad regime to free the Damascus-Daraa highway from regime control. The attack began on Saturday afternoon, during which their forces moved towards the town of ‘Ibay, where military centers and command facilities of the Iranians and Hezbollah are located.

During the offensive, they managed to capture parts of the city but later retreated.

This offensive and subsequent battles are still underway.  The Israeli airforce has aided the rebels from time to time using retaliations for the spillover fromt he battles to hit regime forces that are fighting.

Below are the stats from the presentation:

  • 108 killed
  • 250 wounded
  • 3 tanks were destroyed
  • 3 anti-tank guns

BREAKING: American backed Northern Alliance Kills the Head of ISIS Quneitra Branch on the Golan Border

The Arabic-language Sky News network is reporting the bombing of an unidentified aircraft apparently belonging to the Northern Alliance, which was  in northern Jordan killed the commander of Daesh (ISIS) Quneitra.

The head of Daesh Quneitra had not even been its leader for a month before he was killed by the bombing this evening.

His predecessor, Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi was killed along with a large number of senior local commanders.

The name of today’s commander is sort of a mystery. Some people say it was Abu Hashem al-Rifai Abu Hashem al-Rifai.  Others say it was Abu Hashim al-Askari al-Darawi. Either way, Daesh Quneitra has suffered another setback.

Impact on Israel

There had been a lot of rumors once Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi was killed that it was the Israeli airforce that carried out the hit in the beginning of Ramadan. In truth, Israel has been very involved for a while, on one hand supporting the FSA rebels against Assad and on the other hand trying to remove ISIS.

Weakening ISIS along its border is a top priority for the Israeli government, yet they can’t do it alone as they need to focus on holding Syria and Iran back. The dangerous balance between destroying ISIS and supporting anti-regime forces is key in trying to secure the Golan border.

The Northern Alliance aircraft was most likely American.  This would indicate a division of labor between the US and Israel. With the Americans focusing on ISIS in the South, Israel can better position itself to help the FSA break the supply route between Damascus and Daraa.

 

 

 

Is the Worst Over on the Syria-Israel Border?

The IDF Spokesperson tweeted the following out this morning:

While this is a good short-term development, notifying the end to what seemed to be an acute situation on the Syrian border, the message should be taken very superficially. The spillover into the Israeli side of the Golan was certainly nerve-wracking for the residents of Northern Israel, yet the fact that the IDF took great pains to focus their return fire on the Syrian regime should be a warning on just how close regime forces and their Iranian allies have come to once again claiming the Golan border.

The retaliation by the IDF against the Syrian regime in many ways goes far beyond the scope of Israel’s claimed focus of their relationship to the many sides in the Syrian civil war.

It is no accident that the IDF retaliated heavily on regime positions at the same moment the FSA was leading and offensive to cut through the road leading from Damascus to Daraa. The regime forces of Assad and his Iranian allies have yet to fully crush the resistance in Daraa and so the FSA was trying to break their supply lines.

 

Base image source: MrPenguin20

 

For the first time Israel was willing to show Syria some of their hand in order to relay a message. “Quneitra is off-limits.” The Quneitra based division of the FSA is more and more becoming aligned with Israel. What started out as simple humanitarian gestures have morphed into an Israeli backed rebel militia.

With Hezbollah stationed oppositie Har Dov and routinely coming close to the base there, Israel can ill-afford to have the Syrian regime and Iran take up positions opposite the Eastern border of the Golan.

As the Trump administration weighs its next move against the Syrian regime, Israel is moving fast to push back againstAssad’s forces without fully entering the civil war.

The Real Reason Trump Wants to Hit Syria…

All signs are pointing to an imminent “preemptive” strike by the US against Syria.  This is of course a prelude to an ever-expanding role for the US military in Syria.  Now, even if Syria was about to use chemical weapons it is not clear why the US is suddenly concerned about intervening in the 6-year-old civil war. Yet, they are intervening and have been increasing their ground ops for weeks.

  • The US Military has been actively training an supporting the SDF and YPG against ISIS in Raqqa as well as solidifying the groups’ hold over large areas of Eastern Syria
  • The US Military has been active on the Eastern part of the Syrian, Jordanian, and Iraqi border area, building US bases in Syria.
  • The US Military has redeployed the YPG to Southeastern Syria in hopes they will hold off the Syrian regime advancement

With all of the above in mind, Trump’s now direct threat against the Syrian regime and Russia’s response puts the entie region on the verge of a Syrian War on steroids.

So why would Trump risk a war with Russia/Iran over chemical weapons infractions?

As we have reported here, the Syrian Regime and its Iranian allies have been gaining ground across the country. According to sources on the ground, the Syrian regime is close to defeating rebel units in Daraa.  The Syriran regime has already started to advance on Israel, but has been held back for now by elements of the FSA (Free Syrian Army) which Israel covertly backs. In the East, the YPG has been unable to hold off the Regime’s advance.

If Trump does not make a move soon, the FSA in the Quneitra area will collapse and at the same time the gains by the US and Jordan in the East will be effectively reversed.  This will complete the Shiite Crescent from Tehran to Aleppo, and create an existential threat to Israel and Saudi Arabia. The Shiite Crescent will also give strength to Turkey’s goal of wiping out the Kurds, effectively ending Kurdistan’s drive for independence.

The US has little time to maneuver as Syria backed by Russia and Iran are in the final weeks of mopping up from the Syrian civil war.

It is either now or never.

WHITE HOUSE READIES FOR WAR: Assad Preparing Another Chemical Weapons Attack

Sean Spicer Tweeted the following late last night concerning advance preparations for Syrian regime massacre with chemical weapons.

Then Nikki Haley followed Spicer up with the following Tweet:

Whether the assertions here concerning Assad’s preparations for a chemical attack are true or just a false flag in order to provide a reason for the USA to enter the Syrian war doesn’t quite matter.  At the end of the day if the US is trying to make the case that Russia and Iran are also culpable then the Syrian crisis is moving beyond the scope of anything we have seen.

Assertions of the kind made above have real world consequences.  This is not to say that Assad should be backed or Russia’s Putin is really a friend like so many others push on their blogs, but entering into the Syrian foray would radically change the Middle East and probably the world as a direct war between Russia and the USA would become a real possibility.

It is true that Trump has no interest in starting pointless wars, but there are those in the White House that are. As we have seen Trump is highly suceptible to advice given by those he deems loyal even if it is partially skewed and misguided.

The ominous situation that Syria and those countries near it now find themseves in is about to get a lot more crazy. There are those in the Kremlin who are very susicious of US intentions. Bellicose statements, even if they are not backed can have the potential to spark a wider conflict.

MODI IS COMING: Indian Prime Minister to Visit Israel, Yes this is Really Really BIG

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu stated at his weekly cabinet meeting:

“Next week, the Indian Prime Minister, my friend, Narendra Modi will arrive in Israel, This is an historic visit to Israel. In the 70 years of the country’s existence no Indian Prime Minister has ever visited and this is further expression of the State of Israel’s military, economic and diplomatic strength. This is a very significant step in strengthening relations between the two countries. India is a huge country with over 1.25 billion people and is one of the world’s largest, growing economies. Ties between Israel and India are on a constant upswing.”

“Today, the Cabinet will approve decisions that will deepen these ties, beginning with expanding exports and deepening cooperation in agriculture and water. We will establish a joint innovation, and research and development, fund. We will also increase tourism from India to Israel; this has very great potential. All of this is an additional expression of Israel’s enhanced international position in recent years as we strengthen the State of Israel.”

The Israel-India partnership has been developing and building for years. In an unstable world this partnership can and most likely will change both the Middle East and Near East.

I wrote this in my post in December:

“With a billion people in India, making it the largest democracy in the world, Israel finds a partner that has no in built nor cultural hint of anti-Semitism (Jews have been living in India for 2000 years) and fights against the same past and present enemies as itself. Through technology and military partnerships as well long time cultural connections the two countries are set to impact the globe way beyond their regions.  It is the ultimate partnership that will shake the global order currently controlled by the US, Britain, EU, China, and Russia.”

With no offense meant to our American readership (whose country has long backed our rights to our homeland), Modi’s visit is a pendulum changing event that marks the moment when two former British colonies reached a point when they were able to reclaim the mantle of world leadership they had before it was taken from them.

SYRIA CRISIS: Will Har Dov Be Iran’s First Target in Israel?

Har Dov maybe the first target of an Iranian attack on Israel.

As the Iranian and Russian backed Syrian government continues to extend its offenses South into the Daraa province, effectively cutting off Israel backed militias in the Eastern Golan with their counterparts East of Jabal Al-Druze, the next stop for the campaign is to move West on the Golan border.

Israel has controlled the Golan since 1967 and annexed the mountainous area in 1981.  Syria has never hidden its ambition in taking back the strategic territory, either through war or negotiations. Unlike the Southern Lebanese border area, the Golan has only recently been the subject and focus of Hezbollah.

With the advance of the Russian-Iranian axis the Har Dov area of the Golan takes an added statregic importance. Claimed by both Lebanon and Syria, Har Dov, also known as the Shebaa Farms has been the source of increased surveilance by Hezbollah.

Sources close to Israel Rising told us the official response to these surveliance actions has been to not shoot out of fear of starting a war with Hezbollah prematurely.  Hezbollah agents are often seen close to the mountainous border fence aking pictures.  Since they are not armed, soldiers refrain from shooting.

So why is Iran focused on Har Dov?

Although the international community has backed Israel’s claim that the area is in fact Syrian and included in the Golan Heights, the Lebanese government still claims the strategic region.  More than that the border area is pourous as the IDF was forced to fence in the entire Arab town of Ghajar which is further South of Har Dov and lies on both sides of the Lebanese border.

As far as strategic importance, Har Dov leads to the Banias river which descends into the upper Galil opening up the entire Israeli North. With Iran/Syria/Russia building up on the Golan’s Eastern border, an attack and infiltration on Har Dov could effectively cut the Golan off from Northern Israel.

 

Har Dov in the Golan
Image Source: Garzo/Wiki

 

With the continued breakdown of the US backed coalition forces in Southern Syria, Har Dov becomes critical in defending against an Iranian backed attack on Iran. Northern Israel and the Golan Heights is fast becoming the next showdown in the Syrian conflict.

Jared Kushner is in Israel, Is Peace Actually Happening?

Jared Kushner landed in Israel just under 24 hours ago and after rushing to visit the grieving Malka family over their daughter’s murder on Shabbat he wasted no time going to visit Bibi Netanyahu.

The purpose of Kushner’s visit is to push Trump’s “ultimate deal” to broker Israel-Palestinian peace.  To casual observers it appears that there is really momentum towards a peace deal.

Perhaps there is, but let’s look at five reasons this could all be just a show or even more importantly a deal that has nothing to do with the Palestinians:

  • Trump agrees with Israel’s rights as the sovereign in Jerusalem, “Palestinians” will never agree to that.
  • Trump does not really care about “settlements,” “Palestinians” believe they must go.
  • Trump has opted for regional normalization first before any agreement on final status issues.
  • If Mahmoud Abbas, the “Palestinian” strongman agrees to any deal he will be killed by his own people.
  • Trump agrees that Israel should have full security control over Judea and Samaria.

Given the above list, peace does not seem likely anytime soon.  So what’s really going on?

Interim Deal and Normalization

Trump’s team is pushing normalization first and then an interim solution leaving out final status issues for the foreseeable future. This is essentially a rendition of Education Minister Naftali Bennett’s Stability Plan. The interim deal will see some sort of non contiguous Palestinian State arise in Area A and B where they already have some sort of autonomy.  C will continued to be controlled by Israel.  “Settlements” will continue in two different capacities.  In the main blocks there will unrestrained building.  In the rest of the Jewish communities in Area C building will continue to allow for natural growth.

Furthermore, Israeli communities across Area C will be given the same political status as any other Israeli community.  This has already been established by Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked earlier in the month.

So they would Abbas or the Sunni Arab world go for any of this?

Abbas doesn’t want a real deal for reasons mentioned above. He does want a long-term status quo with an upgrade for the territory he manages.

The Sunni world has never liked the Palestinians.  They have created a “cause” in order to push back on Israel.  Now they need Israel and they need the “cause” they created to quiet down.  The interim plan is the way for this to happen.

Look for Kushner to push the beginnings of an interim solution, a solution that will be so long-term it may just be permanent.