Pompeo, Iran, and the Coming Middle Eastern Storm

With thirteen days left until Trump announces his intention to either certify or decertify the Iranian nuclear deal, an eerie calm has engulfed the Middle East.  This calm has been broken only by the new Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s whirlwind tour of the region shortly after being confirmed by the Senate.

With no one knowing what Trump will decide on May 12th, the region understands that either decision could in fact draw the Middle East into an intractable conflict. This has been clear given Russia’s stepped up arms shipments to Syria after Trump’s bombing of Syrian chemical weapon’s sites.   Add in Iran’s bellicose statements about attacking the US if they decertify the JCPOA and the tension is palpable.

President Trump is clearly in a bind.  If he decertifies the nuclear deal he will most surely be propelling the Middle East into a conflict of unknown directions.  If he recertifies the deal, he will buy the USA and the world only a short time.  Iran thrives off weakness and if Trump decides to stay in the deal, the Iranians will see that as a go ahead to bolster their positions in Syria. Israel, Saudi, Arabia, and other Gulf States will have a choice to make: Go it alone now and risk being embroiled in a war against Iran or wait and most likely face an even stronger enemy.

Picking Pompeo for Secretary of State is a message that Trump is willing to put his foot down when necessary.  With the growing Iranian menace drawing closer to Israel, Pompeo’s ascendancy is no accident.  To be clear, the USA appears to be set on drawing down their troop levels in Syria if possible, but this means that greater back up will be given to regional allies like Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Mike Pompeo said this today after meeting Prime Minister Netanyahu:

“We remain deeply concerned about Iran’s dangerous escalation of threats to Israel and the region, and Iran’s ambition to dominate the Middle East remains. The United States is with Israel in this fight, and we strongly support Israel’s sovereign right to defend itself.

Regarding the JCPOA, President Trump’s been pretty clear: this deal is very flawed. He’s directed the administration to try and fix it, and if we can’t fix it, he’s going to withdraw from the deal. It’s pretty straightforward.

Unlike the past administration, President Trump has a comprehensive Iran strategy that is designed to counter the full array of threats emanating from Tehran.

As part of the President’s comprehensive Iran strategy, we are also working to counter the broad set of non-nuclear threats: Iran’s missile systems, its support for Hezbollah, the importation of thousands of proxy fighters into Syria and its assistance to the Houthi rebels in Yemen. We look forward to working closely with strong allies like Israel in countering these threats and rolling back the full range of Iranian malign influence.”

It is apparent that barring a last minute change that Trump is moving towards decertifying the JCPOA, which would collapse the Iranian nuclear accords.  This will put the region on edge.  With an America depleted after fighting several wars over the last 15 years, the Trump administration finds itself having to back up its regional allies.

This was clearly why it was necessary for Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to fly immediately to the Middle East even before he had moved into his office.

The drums of war are pounding away.

The storm is approaching.

 

Three Potential Responses Putin May Take to a USA Attack on Syria

It is safe to assume that the current war of words between President Trump and Putin will escalate to a US attack on Syria.  At this point there is little doubt that Trump will follow through on his threats to attack Assad.  “Russia vows to shoot down any and all missiles fired at Syria. Get ready Russia, because they will be coming, nice and new and ‘smart!'” Trump Tweeted yesterday.

The real unknown is the Russian response to a NATO backed US attack on Syria.

Putin will likely decide to create as much chaos as possible in responding to the USA.  Three things to expect after the attack (assuming the attack is limited to infrastructure) are the following:

Iranian Attack on Israel: Iran and Hezbollah will be given a green light to attack Israel in both the Galilee and the Golan.  This will draw Israel into a direct war, which has the potential to decimate Israeli population centers and more importantly for Russia to remove Israel from a position of help to the USA.

Overthrow elected governments in Lithuania and Latvia: These two Baltic States have been a  target for Putin’s desire to rebuild the former Russian empire.  Not only can he pull off coups in both places, he can easily move his forces into both countries using Russian separatists in the same way he has in Ukraine’s Donbass. This will be a major blow to both EU and NATO expansion and send the continent into a frantic tailspin.

Support Transnistria: Putin has long thrown soft support behind the Moldovian province of Transnistria, which would give him an anchor on the west of the Black Sea.  This may not be as threatening as overturning Lithuania or Latvia, but the message would be clear.  Russia is on the move and a real threat to European stability.

World War Three?

The above responses assume that Trump’s attack will be limited, but if Trump and his NATO allies or Israel actually take out Assad, then Russia and perhaps China will use that as a reason to threaten the USA and the West in a far more global manner.

BREAKING: Turkish Forces Begin Assault on Afrin City

Sources on the ground in northern Syria report that the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) and their terrorist allies the FSA Turkish division have commenced their assault on Afrin City itself.  Afrin City is a Kurdish majority city in the heart of the isolated Kurdish enclave of Afrin.

The TAF reportedly already cut off water to the city last week and has prepared for the assault by surrounding the city.  Turkish President Erdogan has claimed that the Kurds are terrorists that need to be wiped out.  Afrin City has been playing host to hundreds of thousands of refugees whose homes were taken by the TAF during the current operation Olive Branch.  Reports that the TAF and its jihadist allies have been handing out captured Kurdish homes to fighters.

The TAF has been reportedly firing on unarmed civilians and killing defenseless Kurds .

Despite the USA’s military backing the Kurds in their fight against ISIS, as far as Turkey is concerned the Trump administration has surprisingly remained silent.

The Kurdish Regional Council in Iraq has continued to back their bretheren in Syria with the assistant to President Masoud Barzani saying releasing this Tweet:

In the coming days the USA can still step in and save what’s left of Afrin, but that would require Trump to stand up to a fellow NATO ally.

AFRIN UPDATE: Turkish Planes Bomb City Center, TAF Continues to Shell Civilians

As Turkey shuts down Afrin’s water and begins the seige of the predominately Kurdish city, civilian wounded and dead have been piling up. With Afrin’s Kurdish resistance now decimated one must ask, what the reason is for Turkey to continue to essentially wipe out Kurdish civilians.  Of course a deeper question arises and that is where is the rest of the world and why is it not doing anything about this?

Take a look at the following tweets and videos as Turkey continues to commit ethnic cleansing with a near intent on genocide. Of course Turkey is no stranger to genocide, they wiped out their Armenian minority population of 1.5 million Armenians between 1915 and 1917.

The TAF under Erdogan continues to pound innocent civilians.  The question is: Does anyone care?

Who Will Stop Turkey’s Land Theft of Kurdish Areas in Afrin?

Multiple reports confirm that the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) and their allies the militant FSA are closing in on Afrin’s city center.  The Turkish President is so confident about taking Afrin that he boasted “Afrin will fall by the night.”  Turkey’s war on the indigenous Kurds of Afrin has created 700,000 new refugees in a matter of weeks.

More than this Turkey has been moving ethnic Turks and Arabs into villages where Kurds have lived for years.  Kurdistan 24 reported the following:

Redur Xelil, head of foreign relations for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), of which the Kurdish YPG forces are the leading component, said in an online statement that Turkey was conducting a policy of intentional demographic change in Afrin.

“The Turkish government is settling Turkmen and Arab families in the villages of Afrin that it occupied after forcing out its people and is distributing the belongings of the people of Afrin to the new settlers,” he said.

If the claims are true, the actions would amount to ethnic cleansing. Various forms of forcible transfer of populations, especially of ethnic or religious groups, are considered war crimes by the International Criminal Court.

Afrin’s Fall is Blow to the USA and Democratic Syria

Allowing the Kurdish population of Afrin to be permanently displaced is not just a stain on the international community, but can be seen as a blow to America’s ability to hold together its anti-ISIS and post Assad vision of Syria.  The SDF has been trained by the US to defeat ISIS and form the nucleus of a post Assad democratic Syria.  By allowing Afrin to fall to Erdogan’s Turkey, the USA has doomed its ability to call on the Kurds to help push its view of a democratic Syria. It has also allowed a genocidal maniac to continue to gain strength.

The USA’s non-intervention appears to be forcing the Kurds to look elsewhere for help, namely Iran. Without a SDF that is Wetern oriented, the USA risks losing its ability to steer Syria’s future.

Turkish Air Raids May Drag Syria into Afrin Against Them

Ironically the TAF appears to have allowed their determination to finish off the Kurds to possibly be their undoing.  Through their continuous indiscriminate bombing the TAF has managed to not only decimate civilian population centers but has now destroyed checkpoint that was commandeered by pro-Syrian-government Shi’ite militiamen located on the road to Afrin in northwestern Syria.  The airstrikes killed five pro-Syrian mitiamen connected to the Assad regime.  Whether or now this causes Assad to push against Turkey remains to be see, but it is easy to see that where the USA pauses to enter, Syria will decide to do so thus helping the Kurds to shift allegiences to the  Russian backed Shiite axis.

Will Syria now come to Afrin’s aid?

SHOWDOWN IN AFRIN: Will the USA Stop Turkey’s Invasion of Kurdish Rojava?

The Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) and their jihadist allies of the Turkish contingent of the FSA are now 5 km away from Afrin City.  As the rest of the Kurdish enclave has quickly been gobbled up by the TAF, Kurdish civilians have fallen back on Afrin City as the Tweet below shows.

The original purpose of the “Operation Olive Branch” as the TAF called it was to “cleanse” the Turkish-Syrian border of Kurdish “terrorists.”  Of course Erdogan loves to call most Kurdish people terrorists.  Now that the TAF and the FSA (Turkish division) have nearly encircled Afrin City, most observers are questioning whether Erdogan is really more focused on genocidal ambitions against all Kurdish people.

With a serious showdown in the offing in the next few days as Turkey begins its seige of Afrin City, there is still hope that the Kurdish leadership in Syria will allow the Assad regime to enter Afrin City to push back on the TAF.

Of course there is still a possibility, no matter how remote, that Donald Trump may decide to take Turkey to task for wantonly attacking a key US ally.  As the siege over Afrin City begins there is dimming hope that the US will make a case to defend the Kurds in Afrin, which would remain isolated from the US backed eastern Rojava located from the Euphrates to the Iraqi border.

If the Kurds allow the Syrian regime to enter Afrin City this would effectively pit a Russian proxy in direct confrontation with a NATO member.  Of course it is a NATO member who is busy decimating  an indigenous people and key ally of the biggest NATO member of all, the USA. We may see a tacit allowance of Russian/Syrian assistance of an American ally in order to push back against everyone’s favorite enemy, Turkey.

Whether or not the USA enters the fray against Turkey or at least supplies direct weapons or supplies to the Kurdish majority SDF in Afrin  remains to be seen.  If they keep stalling then either the Kurds in Afrin will be wiped out or the Russian/Syrian access will pull the Afrin Kurds into their orbit.

If there is any question over the brutality of the TAF and the goals of Erdogan’s “Operation Olive Branch,” the Tweet below and the many similar to it should remind every one of the evil that is being allowed to grow in northern Syria.

[Premium] Donald Trump Must Choose Between Turkey or the Kurds

As the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) draw closer to Afrin City, Kurdish fighters trained by the USA are streaming from eastern Rojava into Afrin to help defend their Kurdish brothers from the Turkish invaders.  The Trump administration’s indecision on taking an increasing belligerent Turkey to task for its unlawful invasion of Kurdish autonomous territory has had the following effects on the complicated and chaotic situation in Syria.

  1. The SDF/YPG fighters that had been close to finishing off ISIS in eastern Syria are now abandoning their posts in order to defend Afrin from Erdogan the ultimate antagonist to the Kurdish people. This has allowed ISIS to regroup and ultimately hand the task over to Russia/Iran.
  2. By showing indecision on Afrin the Trump administration has forced the Kurds to look elsewhere for support, including Russia and Iran.
  3. The continued lack of decsion regarding Afrin places the entire US stabilization project from Manbij to eastern Rojava in doubt.

While Turkey is a member of NATO, there is an increasing need for the Trump administration to confront Erdogan head on.  Afterall, Erdogan’s Turkey funded and supported ISIS from the earliest days.  If Trump does not take Turkey to task now he risks losing the Kurdish YPG units that make up the bulk of the SDF.  While its true ISIS is almost finished the Kurds, like the PUK of Iraq may opt to ally with Iran in order to stop the blood letting in Afrin.

The Trump administration has to decide between an increasingly belligerent Turkey who happens to be still a NATO member or a stable Rojava (Syrian Kurdistan) that will ultimately act as a buffer between Western Syria and Iran.  The irony is that the Obama administration originally supported the creation of ISIS as a mini caliphate with Erdogan’s help in order to block Iran. We all know the results of this.  The Kurdish areas are achieving the same result without turning the area over to a deadly terrorist group.

Kurds Losing Ground to Turkey in Afrin

Kurdish forces in the Afrin Canton of northwest Syria continue to lose ground to the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) and their terrorist allies known as the Free Syrian Army (FSA). This Free Syrian Army made up of thnic Turkmen should not be confused with the militia of the same name in the south. What seemed to be a growing quagmire for Erdogan and the TAF has now given way to a Turkish push towards Afrin City.  The current success of the TAF is significant for a variety of reasons.

  1. Syrian forces have yet to take up arms against Turkey despite Assad’s rhetoric
  2. Russia continues to stand aside and allow his rival Erdogan to push back against the Kurds
  3. The US has clearly decided to consolidate the SDF/YPG holding on the eastern side of the Euphrates

The moves in Syria allow for Erdogan to save face by keeping his invasion of Syrian Kurdistan to the isolated Afrin district while giving the US what it has wanted, Turkish acquiesence to a Kurdish proto-state east of the Euphrates. It is clear that Russia has abandondoned the Kurds of Afrin, that is unless the Turks overstay their welcome and invade Afrin City, then the unstable arrangement detailed above may come apart.

Image Source: Syrian Civil War Map

 

Are the Golan Heights Ground Zero for the Coming Conflict with Iran and Syria?

The coming war between Israel and Iran is nearly a foregone conclusion.  The Iranian drone incident and F-16 downing now over 2 weeks old was not only the first direct clash between Israel and the Ayatollahs, it outlines the course of events now unfolding on Israel’s Golan.

For years, Israel’s armed forces and generals prepared for a missile war with Hezbollah.  Large budgets had been put together for missile defense.  The drone incident has scrambled the notion that it is Hezbollah that will fire the opening shot. Iran has moved close to Israel’s border and if reports are accurate the Iranian movements are supported by Russia.




The ceasefire in Ghouta unanimously passed by the UNSC and now implemented by Russia for 5 hours a day has the potential to send thousands of refugees to Israel’s Golan border.  Whether this was purpseful or not doesn’t quite matter.  The coming chaos on the Golan will enable Iran to send fighters into Israel and try to accomplish what Syria has failed to do for years; that is to recapture and occupy the Golan Heights.  If Israel fights back then Hezbollah will unleash its hundreds of thousands of missiles on Israel.

The Golan is now ground zero for the coming war.  The faster Israel prepares to hold back the flood of refugees and impending Iranian invasion the easier it will be to defend itself against a much wider conflict.

Turkey and Syria Head for Direct Clash in Afrin

The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) has now entered the Afrin conflict by threatening to push Turkey and Turkish aligned militants out.  In return, the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) have threatened to attack the SAA if it enters Afrin. As of yesterday, the SAA was seen entrering the Afrin area.  In response the TAF had already begun bombing the approach to Afrin City.

According to Turkish sources the SAA has now halted deployment in the district.

Anadolu Agency (source):

“Pro-regime groups, who tried to enter Syria’s Afrin to support YPG/PKK-Daesh against Turkey’s ongoing operation in the region, have withdrawn Tuesday before reaching the city following warning shots, according to reliable sources on the ground.

The pro-regime groups departed in the Nubl-al-Zahraa region, in southern Afrin, at around 5.00 p.m. (1400GMT) with the aim of supporting YPG/PKK-Daesh terror groups against Operation Olive Branch, said the source on condition of anonymity due to speaking to the media.

The militias tried to advance into the city with a convoy of 20 vehicles including armored vehicles with DShK heavy machine guns

The withdrawal of the pro-Bashar al-Assad terror groups came when they were about 10 km (about 6 miles) away from Afrin, in northwestern Syria.”

In direct contradiction to Turksh claims the SAA has already entered Afrin City over night and are still there. Sputnik News reports the following:

“We maintain contact with the Syrian army, authorities in Afrin and the Kurdish self-defense units (YPG). The forces sent [to Afrin] are directed from the Syrian government, from the command of the Syrian army. Erdogan turned out to be a bad road policeman today, saying that he stopped the movement of Syrian forces that were heading to Afrin. These words are wrong, the forces are is already in Afrin,” YPG spokesman Reizan Hedu said.

Afrin remains tense and appears the main trigger point to a wider war involving Turkey, Russia/Syria/Iran, and the USA. Accordign to many observers Afrin seems to be the sacrificial lamb to Turkey in order to keep them out of eastern Rojava (northeastern Syria).  It is in that area where the majority of US bases exist.

The Syrian regime and the Syrian Kurds have never been allies and in fact have been violently opposed to one another.  Yet, with Afrin isolated and Turkey posing a far bigger threat to both, the Kurdish leadership in Afrin has decided to tactically allow the Syrian regime to push back on Turkey.

Is This a Trigger Event?

My analysis says that this very well could be the trigger event we have been anticipating.  Remember Erdogan wants to reestablish the Ottoman Empire in which his conquering of Damascus plays into an important mythos concerning the rise of the neo-Ottoman empire at the End of Days. The SAA’s entry into Afrin ups the ante and sets up a Turkish-Syrian conflict that has the ability to bring in Russia and the USA.