Turkey and Russia – On the Verge of War

Those reading this have probably never heard of Kızıldağ. You cannot find it on Google Maps, but it is about to become one of the most important regions in the simmering Turkish Russian conflict. Kızıldağ is a region in Northern Syria, only a mere 5 km from the Turkish border and is home to ethnic Turkmen aligned with Turkey. Today Russia and Assad’s forces retook the mountainous region back after 3 years.  

Why is this key? This region is a lynchpin for Turkey’s supply route to Syria.  Of course there are other ways over the Turkish border, but Kızıldağ has been Turkey’s forward position inside Syria. The mountainous region gives Russia and Syria command over the Turkman and access to Southern Turkey.

Yayladağı Google Maps

This ratchets up the pressure on Turkey to a whole new level.  Before they had to deal with Russian sorties and now just over 10 days since the infamous downing of the Russian SU-24, Russia is on the ground along with Syrian troops alongside Turkey’s Southern border. Turkey will not let this strategic area go so easily and will need to recover for this tactical error. Turkey is losing ground and cannot afford to allow a Shiite crescent to be formed just South of it.

Closing the Bosporous is Upon Us

If reports coming out of Turkey can be believed, the Turks have decided to hold 5 Russian cargo ships in the Black Sea instead of letting them travel through the Bosporous.  Of course this does not equal shutting the straits down to Russian sea traffic, but it sets the stage for that. Putin will not let the Bosporous be shut down. With only the Montreux treaty behind him Erdogan is playing chicken with his Northern neighbor and it does not seem that Putin is about to blink.

Putin will consider the closing of the Bosphorous an act of War. So how close are we to a far broader conflict?  Very close. The fact that NATO has situated itself in Istanbul and the Black sea in order to protect Turkey means that we are about to reach the point of no return. This coupled with the fact that Iraq is calling on Turkish troops to immediately leave Iraq just makes the situation that much more dicey.

Where Does Israel Fit In?

Israel has stayed quiet on the Russian and Turkish conflict. Israel knows there are no good guys in this. The maneuvering and cascading towards open conflict leaves Israel with few strategic choices. On one hand Russia is aligned with Iran and Syria, which presents itself as a complete security nightmare and on the other hand Turkey and NATO is at the very least complicit in boosting ISIS which is an equally scary proposition.

One thing is clear, Israel is still hitting deep into Syrian territory in order to destroy advanced weapons bound for Hezbollah. The Russians seem to be ok with this.  Perhaps Israel has in turn given Putin their word to stay neutral in the coming conflict. With Turkey and Russia nose to nose, Israel may have to soon make some uncomfortable decisions. Something that Israel’s government rather not do.

Hevron: Where Jihad Was Born

My first visit to Hevron in the summer of 2001 put me face to face with what would become a sign of things to come for the world over the last 15 years. I was a very different person in those days. 23 years old and idealistic about learning Torah in the Holy Land.  The second intifada had already been raging for the better part of the previous year and Sharon had yet to undertake Operation Defensive Shield.  In those days Arafat’s Fatah controlled up to the main road and Gross square right across the street to the Jewish neighborhood of Avraham Avinu.

The world was still silent. The World Trade Center had yet to be taken down.  George Bush was focused on other things. Israel was the epicenter of terror. Before my Shabbat in Hevron I had been one of many who had run down to Sbarro’s in downtown Jerusalem after it was blown up. Despite seeing the aftermath there, nothing would prepare me for what should have been a quick walk back to where I was staying from our Shabbat meal.

A few others and I started our walk back from the Beit Hadassah neighborhood down the main street. A few moments passed and then like drilling in a construction site a hail of bullets were sent at us.  We did the only thing we knew how to do…we ran. I still remember feeling the bullets go passed me and down by my feet. Miraculously we made it to a concrete barrier, diving behind it. A soldier was there and as the bullets whizzed passed all of us, he told us to run.  We reached the Avraham Avinu neighborhood.  The bullets continued, hitting the sandbags that were up in those days. The IDF returned fire and that is how it went for a better part of the night.  The next afternoon and evening was more of the same.

Today, Hevron is different.  New neighborhoods have grown.  Children play in the streets. The army is based in positions well inside the Arab areas.  There are problems and tensions, but no more machine gun fire or wanton killing. The Jews of Hevron have continued to be resilient in reestablishing King David’s first capital city.

Hevron, A Jewish City

The Jewish community in Hevron is ancient.  From the time of Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob through the first and second commonwealth, Hevron played a central role to the Nation of Israel. The Jewish community lived there until the year 1929, when their Arab neighbors turned on them and massacred them. The Hevron Riots were part of the larger 1929 Arab pogroms that saw Jews being pushed out of historically Jewish neighborhoods in the Old City and the Kfar Shiloach (today Silwan).

Jews returned to Hevron in 1967 and for the first time in 500 years were allowed to enter the Cave of the Patriarchs where our forefathers and mothers are buried. The community has expanded and grown since then.

A Microcosm of the Global Struggle With Ishmael

In the last 15 years since those tense and very dangerous moments in Hevron, the world has become engulfed in multiple wars and a seemingly unstoppable rising flood of Jihadist terror. The Arab world seeks to challenge the root of monotheism and claim it as their own.  Their fight in many ways burst into a new stage in 1929. There they killed the “people of the book.” It is this root between Isaac and Ishmael that is at the heart of the struggle here and around the world.  Hevron is that root. It is where our fathers established their covenant with the Almighty and David established his Kingdom.  Despite all of our setbacks we have returned to our roots in Hevron and grown.  For this Ishamel is angry for in his collective mind the root is his, but his root is chaos and destruction, the Jihad.

In many ways what we have witnessed over the last decade and a half and especially in the last few months with the attacks in the Sinai, Paris, and now San Bernadino is that the Jihad of 1929 is live and well throughout the world. It is a mentality the Jewish people have faced since our return to our ancient homeland as a sovereign entity. It is this reason why we have no choice but to hold onto our roots.  We must embrace the ethics and morality of our fathers and most importantly attach ourselves to the Creator.  For this reason Hevron is key.  It is our source and corridor to our past and an example of how the Jewish people can be resilient and come out on top.       

In order to defeat the army of Ishmael the World must reconnect to the source of its faith.  That faith is rooted in the Jewish presence in Hevron.  Following the Jewish Nation’s example in its ancient birthright the world can overcome this chaotic time and build a new future.                             

Israel Behind the News [Dec 3, 2015]

Israeli Youth Said to be Arrested for the Duma Arson

Haven’t we heard this before?  Months ago they threw countless young Israelis into administrative detention with no charges.  Many of those youth are still behind bars. So if they were involved how come no charges were brought and if they were not involved since supposedly there is a new arrest, why haven’t Meir Ettinger, Mordechai Meyer, and Eviatar Slonim and many others been released? It is interesting to note that this new announcement comes on the heels of the UN complaining that the government still has not found the perpetrators.  24 hours later there is a new arrest. There is no coincidence here. Unfortunately they have not brought any evidence to prove the state’s side. If this turns out that after all this time they are just trying to simply beat a confession out of these guys to please the UN, it will come back to haunt the security apparatus.

Israel Fight Back Against EU Anti-Semitism

The government is actually handling the situation with the EU labeling excellently. Part of the reaction is do in part because the EU as an international player is losing its leverage in the face of an ascendant Russia.  Also the Eastern half of the EU seems to be against the move.  Given that Israel finally has some maneuverability.

Israel Moves to Destroy Homes of Arab Terrorists

Many people felt house demolitions would spark a wider conflict with the Arabs living in Israel.  However, the only thing that seemed to happen were some local clashes after the apartment complex belonging to the ring leader behind the Henkin murder was destroyed.  It still remains to be seen how much of a deterrent this really is, but the fact is it sets the stage for expelling the families of these attackers, which most people believe will be a serious deterrent.

 

[podcast] Israel: Land of Judicial Tyranny

It has become clear in the last few years just how bad the judicial overreach here is in Israel.  Despite the rising sentiment to change the judicial system, the cadre of elitists still hold on to the last bastion of their control. Shai and I discuss, the history of judicial activism in Israel, why it is so bad, and the chances of change being implemented.

Sources used in this podcast:

  1. http://www.daat.ac.il/daat/ezrachut/english/hillel.htm
  2. http://www.robgagnon.net/JeffersonOnJudicialTyranny.htm
  3. http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Politics-And-Diplomacy/Shaked-mulls-splitting-attorney-general-job-into-two-411092

Israel Behind the News [Dec 1, 2015]

The stabbing spree continues as no solution has been found for the Arab “lone wolf” strategy. The strategy is to create a sense of randomness in the attacks.  This keeps security forces guessing and the population on its toes. Of course we all know that none of this is random or lone wolf.  This is not to say that higher ups are planning each one out, but the Imams are deliberately juicing up the street to go out and kill. It really doesn’t take much, after all a believing Muslim is commanded to support shahidism.
The local Arab infantalism continues. Let’s be straight, when Abu Mazen (aka Abbas) says the Palestinian’s “resources are being usurped, our trees are being uprooted, our agriculture is being destroyed,” he is inferring that Israel’s very presence is disturbing the otherwise pristine state of the environment in the PA controlled areas.  The fact that without Israel and outside money in the last 25 years, there would be no Arab agriculture in these areas is lost on the PA President. Remember, according to the PA narrative there is nothing the Arabs of the PA can do wrong.  All problems stem from Israel’s existence, including the environment.
Turkey seems to live in an alternate dimension when it comes world affairs.  The fact that conclusive proof exists that Turkey finances ISIS by reselling its oil and of course ensures steady flow of combatants through its South West border is of no consequence to Turkish leaders.  Russia is leading an effort to force Turkey to change its ways, but of course that would mean giving up on Erdogan’s dream of being the first sultan in almost 100 years. The conflict continues to simmer, yet breakout to something much larger is no longer an “if” anymore, but has moved to a “when”.