USA Archives - Page 4 of 4

December 18, 2015February 9, 2016

Turkey and Israel, Friends Again?

We live in a strange world. As the American uni-polar world collapses, alliances are born and others fall away. Partnerships are formed based on near term survival, without consideration for the long view. Turkey, by all estimates was heading into the dustbin. Surrounded by Russia to the North East, Iran to the South East, and a resurgent Assad to the South with Russia behind him, Erdogan, the Sultan not to be was cornered. Russia supplies most of Turkey’s gas. Without Russia’s gas, Turkey would collapse due to a lack of energy.

Israel an Energy Leader

Israel rushed through the gas deal this week, not only because of the new energy alliance with Greece, Cyprus, and Egypt, but because of the secret deal now reveled to the World. Turkey would be given a life line and pulled out of its corner and Israel would act as the senior partner in the relationship.

Leadership requires making decisions even if they are unpopular. Erdogan is not a nice guy. He slaughters Kurds and denies his country’s role in the Armenian genocide, but Israel is in a different place now and chose to offer Turkey the lifeline it needed.

Two Viewpoints

There have been two pervading viewpoints int he defense establishment in Israel. One is to work with Russia and embrace Assad in order to return stability to the Middle East. The other is to build relationships that will counteract Iran no matter the cost of stability and Russian tactical considerations. The Turkey move, means the latter won out.

What of Greece and Cyprus?

Greece and Cyprus need Israel far more than it needs them. The returning to ties with Turkey is a cold one, brought on by Jerusalem’s concern about Iran and Syria coming out of this war in a clearly unstoppable manner. Strengthening Turkey in a non-emotional way provides a push back to the Shiites. None of the maneuvers we are seeing are the products of long term strategic planning. The post USA Middle East is too new to learn where the lines will be drawn.

Out of Putin’s own Playbook

Israel agreed to the return of relations with Turkey only because of the gas pipeline Turkey is willing to lay for Israel. By becoming the major gas provider to Turkey Israel holds the upper hand in the relationship. Mess with Israel and Turkey loses its gas. This has been Putin’s strategy with Europe for years.

A Dangerous Path

With Russia preparing for a possible war with Turkey and their tactical partnership with Iran, throwing a way out to Erdogan puts us in an uncomfortable situation. Putin clearly views Erdogan as enemy number one. Israel helping him does not bode well for our relationship with Russia. It could be there was never anything to talk about with Putin and that Jerusalem decided to move forward before Putin and company decided to put the Jewish Nation into a more uncomfortable spot. Whatever the reason, the new gas partnership puts Israel on the side of those counties Putin dislikes. In the coming weeks Israel will have to go out of its way to play down the deal or potentially face the wrath of Putin and his forces.

December 16, 2015February 9, 2016

Cornering Israel…

With Kerry getting Obama to back off insistence on Assad’s ouster, the world continues its slide into geopolitical chaos. Of course at first glance, Assad offers the kind of stability Syria needs and it was precisely trying to oust him which caused so many problems.

For the USA who is on a not so slow retreat, allowing Russia, Iran, and Syria to provide stability to the region seems logical. The problem with this sort of stability is that Israel’s arch enemies will maneuver themselves into strategic positions along side the Jewish state. Assad might bring stability, but that means Israel will be under serious threat.

Can Russia be Trusted?

I have written extensively on the fact that Russia does not want to upset the stability in the countries that are in fact most stable. It is clear Putin is not trying to put us into a tight spot, but he has some conflicting partnerships: Assad, Iran, and Israel. It is true the deconfliction mechanism lets us destroy heavy arms bound for Hezbollah, but the idea that Assad’s permanence means Iran gets to stick around is not something any of us want to see.

The prevailing thought is that Putin will hold the Ayatollahs on a short leash. There is something to this, but the prospects of an emboldened Iran are not good.

We Are Expendable

At the end of the day, the world is search of some sort of order. It is true we are light in a dark region, but nations can be erratic in times of chaos. Right now the transition is only beginning and Israel is doing its best to hedge its bets on who will come out on top. It is clear Russia makes a great case on why we should move into their orbit, but if they cannot reign in Iran then it may be far more dangerous than going it alone.

Some Positive Developments

Despite many of the troubling signs flowing from the chaos in the Middle East, Israel’s ability to have a working relationship with Russia and covertly helping the Kurds to move their oil show we have some versatility in grappling with the complex challenge we find ourselves in. By rolling with the changes and making partnerships based on strategic value, Israel can make it through one of the most chaotic times the Middle East has seen.

December 7, 2015February 9, 2016

Putin on the Move

It is clear that Putin sees his mission to exterminate ISIS as well as the Syrian opposition to Assad. To Putin they are one and the same. This entails Russia successfully destroying Turkey’s supply lines to their ISIS allies. Right now Russia is doing this in the Western part of Syria by obliterating the Turkmen bases in the Kızıldağ district on the border of Turkey. After Kızıldağ the next logical place for Putin to focus on would be the remaining supply route from Turkey into Syria and that would be from the border of Turkey and Syria near Jarabulus a Syrian city that has a population 11,500. The road from there leads South along the Euphrates River to the Islamic State’s capital of Raqqah.

If Putin and Syrian ground forces continue to advance against both ISIS and the Turkish supply lines, ISIS will be crippled, leaving only Iraq as a solid territory under their rule. Yet, that too could be under fire soon as the Iraqi government has asked Russia to step in and kick Turkish forces from Northern Iraq.

If Russia succeeds with the help of Syrian and Iranian ground forces, Turkey will end up with an emboldened Kurdish presence to its South as well as a generational setback to Erdogan’s grand designs to be the neo-Sultan of the Middle East. The Sunni World would be in upheavel and the Middle East and the bulk of the world’s oil supply would be held by Russia and the Shiites (save for Saudi Arabia).

Closing the Bosphorous is Turkey’s Only Recourse

Below is the relevant text from the Montreux Convention Articles 19, 20, and 21 of agreed upon in 1936:

Article 19.

“In time of war, Turkey not being belligerent, warships shall enjoy complete freedom of transit and navigation through the Straits under the same conditions as those laid down in Article 10 to 18.”

“Vessels of war belonging to belligerent Powers shall not make any capture, exercise the right of visit and search, or carry out any hostile act in the Straits.”

Article 20.

“In time of war, Turkey being belligerent, the provisions of Articles 10 to 18 shall not be applicable; the passage of warships shall be left entirely to the discretion of the Turkish Government.”

Article 21.

“Should Turkey consider herself to be threatened with imminent danger of war she shall have the right to apply the provisions of Article 20 of the present Convention.”

We are all aware by now that Turkey has been slowing down Russian vessels and with that a Russian warship had a soldier standing on it with a shoulder guided missile in plain site. According to the above treaty Russia broke article 19 and Turkey very well may use that in the coming days to close the straits. Putin will have to reopen them by force setting the stage for a broad war against NATO. Erdoan is banking on NATO stepping in. Putin believes they will at the most make a token gesture out of Europe’s fear of having their gas cut in the dead of winter.

Of course Obama and the USA are stuck between two converging realities. With the ISIS attack in San Bernadino last week, Obama would be hard pressed to defend Turkey given Russia’s proof that Erdogan has been assisting ISIS and then again not defending Turkey would mean that Russia and Iran would be in control of much of the Middle East and the Black Sea with Russia having an acute ability to dictate the future of Europe. Right now Obama seems frozen or pre-occupied in order to turn the domestic situation to some sort of advantage for his agenda.

Iran Filling the Void in the Syrian Golan

While Russia makes moves to flatten Turkey and their aspirations, Iran is using their tactical pact with Russia to take over the positions ISIS and Al Nusra once had in the Syrian side of the Golan. Israel’s leaders have made bellicose statements, but Iran stands undeterred as their pincher move is rapidly set up. Israel has one move and that is to strike now while Russia is involved in the North, but that brings another set consequences. The die is cast. The next moves on the chessboard of the now expanding Syrian conflict is Israel’s and Turkey’s.