Tag: Turkey

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Trump Administration Working with Putin to Protect the Kurds, is Kurdistan Coming?

Of all the spinoff conflicts connected to the Syrian Civil War and the fight to destory ISIS, the Turkish offensive to wipe out the growing strength of the Kurdish militia in Northern Syria is the most important.

Despite claims to the contrary, Erdogan helped fund ISIS in its early days in order to create enough chaos to further his interests in spreading Turkish power into Northern Iraq and Syria.  He both allowed ISIS fighters to travel from Turkey into Syria and provided the same fighters medical attention when necessary.

When stories of Turkish aid convoys reached the news, Erdogan pivoted and joined the fight to “destroy the group.” Turkey then used their offensives into Syria to achieve three objectives: show the world it is not in collusion with ISIS, stand up to Russia, and most importantly destroy the nascent Kurdistan.

Kurdistan factors heavily into Trump and Putin’s post ISIS Syria and Iraq.  The Kurdish Peshmerga has been the only force that has showed the ability to defeat ISIS. As long as Turkey stayed out of Syria, the Kurdish YPG could continue gaining ground.

The Battle of Manbij Will Prove Pivotal

Manbij is a Kurdish controlled town  just 40km from the Turkish border and this week it has provided the setting for what will no doubt prove to be the beginning of an independent Kurdistan. With Turkey deciding to push out the Kurds who have controlled the town, the Trump administration took the opportunity to team up with Russia in order to thwart Erdogan’s plans.

Bloomberg reports:

A U.S. deployment and a Russian-brokered deal with Syrian forces created buffer zones that headed off any Turkish campaign against the Kurdish forces who hold the town — seen by Washington as key allies against Islamic State and by Turkey as terrorists.

Once again Erdogan’s plans of dominating the Kurds have faltered.  With Russia and the US working together Turkey is forced to deal with the reality that the Kurds are here to stay.

Is Kurdistan Next?

Although rumors of an independent Kurdistan have risen higher in the years since ISIS came to power, the reality of the rumors have never been more actual than now. Kurdistan offers the ability to right an historic injustice by creating a state for the Kurds who have been stateless for centuries.  In fact, it is the Kurds who are indigenous to the area, going as far back as the ancient Medes. An independent Kurdistan would create stability in the Middle East and act as a buffer to the madness of the Arab tribes to the South and Turkish regional aspirations from the North.

Furthermore an independent Kurdistan would quickly become an ally of Israel in its fight against radical Islam.

Will Trump and Putin make it happen?  So far their cooperation in relation to Manbij makes the prospect likely.

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BREAKING NEWS: Russian Ambassador Shot in Turkey, Will There Be War?

[This post has been updated]

News out of Turkey is reporting the following:

Russia’s ambassador to Turkey has been assassinated by an off-duty police officer in front of terrified witnesses allegedly in retaliation for the crisis in Aleppo. -Mirror


The attacker fired once in the air and then shot at the ambassador. Although it is too early tell who is behind the attack, the assassination attempt has the potential to start a dramatic increase in hostilities between Russia and Turkey.  Both nations have shared their share of animosity over the years.  Recently, a Russian aircraft was shot down by Turkey, killing the pilot.  Yet, the assassination attempt if traced to pro Erdogan would take relations to a new low, possibly igniting a regional conflict.

Bill Kristol is referring to the assassination Arch Duke Ferdinand, which triggered World War One.

Below is the situation right after the shooting. One can see the ambassador lying in a pool of blood.

Will There Be War?

If there was ever a trigger for a regional war this would be it.  Russia has been looking for a reason to shot down shipping traffic in the Bosphorous for some time and could use this to do it.  With weeks left to Obama’s turn, get ready for his administration to milk this for all its worth in terms of NATO involvement, especially since he knows Trump won’t aid Turkey.

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A Synagogue in Kurdish Iraq? Only a Matter of Time…

The Jewish community in Iraqi Kurdistan has officially submitted a request to open a synagogue in Erbil, the region’s capital.
“Representatives from the Jewish community put forward a request to build a synagogue in the city of Erbil and although they have the right to it, the ministry is yet to agree to issue the licence,” the ministry’s spokesperson Mariwan Naqshbandi told The New Arab. “The ministry of religious affairs includes representatives from eight religious communities, including the Jewish community. Therefore, they have the right to get the licence request approved to build a synagogue.”

On Wednesday the Jewish community in Kurdistan, now numbering only 400 families, marked 71 years since tens of thousands were forcibly expelled from the region. The Kurdish Jewish community wants the Kurdistan Regional Government to recognise what happened to the Jews of the area.

Location of Erbil, Iraq Source: Google Maps
Location of Erbil, Iraq Source: Google Maps

Kurdistan Friendly to Israel 

It is a fact that no one wants to admit, at least not publicly, but for years successive Israeli governments have covertly and more recently backed Kurdish independence from Iraq.  Kurds are not Arabs and have a traditions of being descended from the Medes who were known to be friendly to the Jewish people.  In fact the Kurds and Jews should be considered to two predominantly indigenous people of the area until the Arab population colonized what is today northern Iraq.

Israel currently buys a good portion of its oil from Kurdish areas from a pipeline running through Turkey to the Mediterranean.

As ties continue to grow beyond military assistance, expect direct trade and open relations as long as the Peshmerga can keep ISIS and Turkey from its borders.

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2000 Arabs Join the Kurdish Peshmerga, Setting Back Turkish Plans for Control Over Region

In a sign of long term Kurdish leadership in Northern Iraq, 2000 Nineveh Arabs have joined the Kurdish fighting force, the Peshmerga.  Kurdish news site, Rudaw reports that it was the Arab communities themselves who asked Kurdish President Masoud Barzani to allow them to form a brigade within the Peshmerga.

“The name of this brigade will be the ‘Brigade of West Dijla Peshmerga,’ comprising of Arabs from Zemar, Rabia, Ayazya and a number of villages in Sinjar. Their duty will be to protect their areas under the command of the Ministry of Peshmerga,” Sheikh Muzaam Ahmed Al-Uwet, a spokesperson for tribal forces of Nineveh Province, told Rudaw.

Partnership is Setback for Turkish Plans Post ISIS

Turkey’s strategy behind supporting ISIS (in the beginning) was to create chaos in their immediate surroundings.  As a NATO member and strongest military in the region they would be the only ones strong enough to restore order.  Order for Turkey is putting down the growing strength of Iraqi Kurdistan at the same as claiming more lands connected to the former Ottoman Empire.

That was in the beginning.  With ISIS being now surrounded by a combined Kurdish and Iraqi army in Mosul and more and more Sunni Arabs in the area recognizing that Kurdistan is a fact, Turkey’s ability to use chaos to rule may have seen its final door shut.  With the Arabs in Northern Iraq accepting Kurdish rule instead of Turkish, Iraqi, or Iranian, the relevance of a Kurdistan that is capable of restoring order is real making Turkey’s great gambit in Northern Iraq a losing proposition.

 

 

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Can Anyone Stop Erdogan From Becoming Turkey’s Sultan?

Well we all knew it had to get to this point.  Turkey’s wanna be sultan Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has put forth a wide ranging bill backed by conservatives in Turkey’s parliament that would centralize power behind the office of president even more.  If the measure passes in the coming months it will head to a national referendum in order to amend the constitution. In the proposed amendment, Erdogan will be able to stay in power until 2029 making him a defacto dictator or in his parlance sultan.

ISIS is Not Going Anywhere

Erdogan has been identified as one of the main backers of ISIS.  He supplied them multiple avenues to smuggle weapons and fighters in Iraq and Syria and he and his family bought oil directly from ISIS.  All of this was a strategy that created chaos with the direct purpose of giving Turkey a reason to expand its holding in these areas.  Only Turkey has the resources and is in proximity to be able to stabilize the area. This is why Turkey is in northern Syria and Mosul.

Tensions with Israel Will Continue to be Strained

While its true Erdogan signed off on the rapprochement deal with Israel, an emboldened Erdogan will see things very differently. Expect the relationship to contnue to be rocky between Israel and Turkey as long as Erdogan is at the helm.  Of course the military and business sector may step in and force Erdogan to play nice with Israel’s government, but there is no guarantee they will have the leverage they need.

The Kurdish Uprising is Guaranteed

If the constitution is amended the 10 million Kurds inside Turkey will have no other recourse than to rebel.  After all it is the Turks that arrived late on the scene from the east, occupying what has been Kurdish land for thousands of years.  With Russian backing below the radar, the Kurds are set to make the new sultan’s life a living hell.

With all of the above on the line, it is no surprise why Erdogan demands changes to the UN.

“There are so many countries. There are five permanent members of the Security Council and one of those five permanent members can make a decision that binds the rest of the world. That is not fair, that is not just,” Erdogan said. “To achieve international peace and security, it’s going to be very difficult, and perhaps fail if the United Nations is not restructured”

Perhaps that is the only thing Israel and Turkey see eye to eye on.

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