Tag: Turkey

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Erdogan Restructuring Turkish Military, Ending Its Historic Independence

President Erdogan, continuing to utilize the failed coup attempt of 18 days ago, has ended the historic division between the army and government that has existed for nearly a century.

Wiping the last visages  military independence, Erdogan’s government made statutory decree as par of the three-month emergence decree that the prime minister, chief of General Staff, the deputy prime ministers, justice minister, foreign minister, interior minister, defense minister and force commanders would join to the Supreme Military Council.

This injection of “civilian” governance into the military would be fine in any other country, but in Turkey the Supreme Military Council was designed to remain separate in order to ensure that Turkey would remain secular in its institutions.  In a strange sense it is the military that was built to hold up democracy.

Turkey’s war academies, military high schools, and high schools that train non-commissioned officers have been closed.

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Germans Rise Up: Angela Merkel Must Go

Angela Merkel

“Despite the great unease these events inspire, fear can’t be the guide for political decisions,” Angela Merkel, chancellor of Germany said on Friday, in reference to the growing outcry  from German citizens regarding her immigration policy.  She has stuck to her belief that Germany should work to keep an open immigration policy and integrate the migrants streaming into her country.

stubbornness can be an asset in politics, but in Merkel’s case it very well may be her undoing. The chorus of voices have grown stronger over the weekend.  The first Merkel “Must Go” rally attracted 5,000 protestors with 1000’s more across the country. More important for Merkel is that a key ally the governor of Bavaria who defended her Willkommenskultur – welcoming culture – towards refugees has now come our against it.

With her citizenry turning against her, she sees her rule slipping away. The question remains, are Germans ready to throw Angela Merkel out and what will be next?

A new survey found that 83 percent of Germans now see immigration as Germany’s biggest challenge.  This is twice as many as a year ago.

Recent attacks have lent strength to the right-wing movement, which has long called for stricter immigration methods, specifically in Bavaria.  This is where Merkel has faced the heaviest criticism from high-profile politicians.

With Merkel’s deal with Turkey looking increasingly likely to fall apart, the last visages of support for an open immigration policy will fade as the Erdogan agreement was the only thing lending fuel to the idea that the immigration situation could be manageable.

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The Great Game: Turkey-Israel Detente, Russian-Iranian Cooperation, and the Kurdish Question

The old adage “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” has been an increasingly confirmative rule in middle eastern governing circles.  With the collapse of American hegemony in the region that has caused a resurgent Russia and Iran to take charge of areas that stretch from Iraq to Levant, countries normally at odds with one another have found the strange inclination to actually form alliances to offset the bear and the ayatollahs.

The Turkish-Israeli rapprochement took many people by surprise, but in the current geopolitical realities, the détente makes perfect sense.  Keep in mind Turkey, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt all have the same enemy in Iran and fellow Shiite travellers.  Throw Putin’s Russia into the mix and the Sunni states were very quick to find the only other middle eastern nation they could bring in.  The danger of Iran and Russia is so great for these forces, Palestinian issue, which has long been used as a foil to placate the Arab street has been move to the back of the Sunni’s list of priorities.

Israel as the Anchor

Israel is actively seeking a cornerstone role in the wide-ranging alliance forming in the western part of the middle east. One can already see this in the gas deals being built between Egypt, Greece, Cyprus, and Israel.  With Turkey being brought on board, Israel’s role in bringing old foes to the same table is not being missed, especially by Russia, who thought it had Erdogan cornered.

Israel’s game is to offset Russia’s power play to its north by giving a lifeline to Turkey, Russia’s age-old adversary.  For now it seems to be working, although it is clear Russia is remains unnerved by the “Great Game” and is willing to pressure Israel by backing up Iranian, Syrian, and Hezbollah forces on the Golan border.

What About the Kurds?

Kurdistan as it is known by all Kurdish people across the middle east is spread across northern Syria, Iraq, southern Turkey, and western Iran. Turkey’s main challenge is to dissuade the Kurds from working directly with Russia. If they are not able to, then Russia will have  a fifth column of 10 million strong disenfranchised Kurds inside Turkey to use as leverage if needed.

Right now, barring a severe flare up in Israel’s northern border the “Great Game” of the middle east is in its early phases.  Geo-political maneuvering is still fresh and fluid.  Russia may opt to play neutral in the burgeoning alliance system and let Iran and Syria go it alone.  Russia may also be able to convince Israel to remain neutral as well in exchange for security promises.  No matter the outcome, this “Great Game” will not take 100 years like the last one as America’s pull back has shuffled the deck and wrought chaos on what was already considered a chaotic region.

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ISIS In Europe, Turkey As a Transit Corridor, and Refugee Deal in Tatters

ISIS Member in Europe

Germans came to a nasty realization that their liberal euphoria in being an open and tolerant society may have been at the very least a bit naive if not down right deadly. The Syrian refugee turned suicide bomber was no psychiatric case, but rather revealed to be an ISIS member after police discovered ISIS material on his phone.  ISIS wasted no time claiming the attack their own. Where there is one ISIS member there are countless others. The attack has left the region shocked.

The idea that Germany would soon be entering the same fate as France was not lost on the Bavarian region, which is now in a state of panic.  This realization is born in an understanding that something far more sinister is at foot in Europe.  As refugees have streamed from Syria into Europe, their transit takes them almost exclusively through Turkey.  The fact is most refugees could have been stopped at the Turkish Syria/Iraq border, but have not been. Actually the opposite has happened, they have been welcomed. Once there they find themselves pushed West into Europe itself.

More than this Turkey ferries and protects ISIS members as they help swell the ranks of fighters in Syria.  Granted the refugees deal has slowed this movement, but Erdogan and company has still allowed it on a slow flame.  The question Europeans need to ask is why is Turkey doing all of this.

The answer is simple: chaos equals conquest.  As an Islamist Erdogan believes it is his duty to reconquer areas taken from him by infidels as well as push Islam to new locations.  For Erdogan ISIS serves the first purpose by bringing chaos to Syria and the rest of the Mesopotamian region, an area Turkey used to control.  Refugees fulfills the second, which is a destabilization of Europe due to overwhelming numbers and increasing ISIS attacks.

Now that Turkey’s turn to autocracy is all but confirmed, the EU entry negotiations will become permanently stalled, paving the way for the nullification of the refugee relocation deal.  If Europeans thought their lives were bad now, in the coming months it will be a lot worse.

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Can Israel Broker a Peace Deal Between Cyprus and Turkey?

Nicos Anastasiades

Prime Minister Netanyahu met with Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades on Sunday and discussed cooperation on terrorism and energy exploration.  The two countries have always been on good terms, but have grown closer in recent years over joint gas exploration.

It was reported earlier in the year that a consortium was formed between Greece, Cyprus, and Israel to create an East Mediterranean alliance.  One of the theories behind the rapprochement between Israel and Turkey was Israel’s desire for Turkey to join up, at least as far as energy goes.

“In the context of the exploration and development of energy resource in the eastern Mediterranean, both leaders concluded that there is no question that resolving the outstanding issues between Cyprus and Turkey would greatly facilitate the pace of the development of future projects, which will proceed according to international law, as well as greatly enhance stability in the region. Therefore, Israel has a strong interest in the resolution of this issue,” said a statement from the meeting.

Given Erdogan’s consolidation of power and movement towards an Islamic Fascist Sultanate, it would seem improbable that peace between Cyprus and Turkey is around the corner.  Yet, in a sea of chaos that the world is increasingly moving towards, anything is possible, especially when energy is involved.