Tag: Syria

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Is the Syrian Regime Getting One Last Battle In Before Today’s Ceasfire Kicks In?

Arab news reports are filled with an ongoing battle in the Syrian Golan, close to the DMZ that separates Israel’s Golan, from the Syrian held Golan.  The Syrian regime and their Iranian allies are skeptical of the ceasefire deal Russia and the US have inked and have made it clear to teir Russian counterparts they have little intention of following it for long.

After all, the Syrian regime has been on a role and has drawn close to the Israeli border.  The Russian ceasefire essentially freezes Syria’s war on the FSA, but at the same time places Russian military police in charge of the area.

As the battle rages between the Syrian regime and rebel forces in the Quneitra region, Israel has taken no chances and has used drones and other surveliance tools to monitor the battle as the ceasefire comes in. Iran has made it clear they will use the ceasefire to regroup and build up their Syrian allies to be ready to take more rebel controlled territory near the Israeli border when the ceasefire collpases.

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SYRIAN CEASEFIRE: Russia Now in Charge of Israel’s Border

The G20 meeting between Putin and Trump has already produced some immediate results.  According to reports the two sides agreed to implement a ceasefire for Southwest Syria, along the Israeli and Jordanian borders.

“A ceasefire will come into force in that zone (Syria’s south – Daraa and Quneitra) at 12.00 Damascus time on July 9,” Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. “The United States has made a commitment that all the groups present there will observe the ceasefire.”

The security in the de-escalation zone in the south of Syria will be ensured by the Russian military police in coordination with the US and Jordan.

“At first, the security around this zone will be ensured with the use of the personnel and resources of the Russian military police,” Lavrov said.

The ceasefire has brought a tenuous relief to Israel as the Syrian regime forces and their Iranian allies were marching straight for the Golan. Reports indicate that Iran was brought to in on the deal by Russia who has grown wary of the Iranian army’s involvement in the conflict.

The deal covers the Daraa, Quneitra, and Sweida areas of Syria.

Is the Ceasefire Really Good for Israel?

Although there is a feeling of relief in Israel due to the ceasefire, the agreement itself is still not without flaws. Israel has demanded that Russia not be alowed to control the ceasefire zones without US involvement.  More than that the ceasefire does not prevent movements by the Syrian regime or its allies to other parts of the country. This essentially means that the Syrian regime can prepare for the next round.

This puts Daraa and Quneitra under a immediate threat once the ceasfire breaks down as it most probably will.

So why did Trump sign such a precarious deal?  Trump was left with little choice. By not committing to ground troops himself, Trump had to put a stop to Syria/Iran’s move to the Meditereanean or risk a broader war with Israel getting involved. Trump found a willing partner in Russia’s Putin to make it happen.

Now that the deal appears to be going into effect on Sunday, the Trump administration has essentially given Putin what he wants. Israel will have a far more precarious future with Russia in the mix on its border.

The deal essentially puts Russia on the border with Israel. This will make it harder and harder for the Israeli military to strike back if it is hit by Syria or Hezbollah. Israeli sources say that Israel’s government is in intense discussions on the specifics of Russia’s role within the ceasefre zones.

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Syrian Troops with Hezbollah Clear Out Al-Baath, Is the Next Stop Israel?

Syria and Hezbollah are reporting that they have successfully cleaned Al-Baath city from rebel and Jihadi forces.  Al-Baath has been the target of intense fighting between rebel and regime forces for over a week. The city is strategic for its location closer to the Damascus-Daraa road which has been the main supply line for the regime forces fighting against Free Syrian Army associated militias in Daraa.

Al-Baath itself, is the headquarters for the Iranian and Hezbollah contingents in Western Syria.  The city’s fall gives the regime and its Iranian ally direct access to the Quneitra province.  It also forces the Israeli government into a bit of a quandary. Up until the Israeli army has opted for using retaliation strikes against the regime as a way of tacitly aiding the rebels as well as offering humanitarian aid.  It has worked until now.  With Syria and Iran now able to move within the Israeli buffer zone around the Golan, Prime Minister Netanyahu will be forced to decide whether to enter the Syrian Civil War directly or allow the Shiite juggernaut to take up positions on the Israeli border.

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SYRIA CRISIS: Fighting Intensifies Near the Israeli Golan as Second Mortar Hits Israel

With all the talk and excitement of the arrival of the USS H.W. Bush Aircraft carrier at the port in Haifa, an ominous battle keeps moving closer to Israel’s Eastern border.

For the second time in one hour mortars from a battle between Syrian regime forces and rebel militia has hit the Israeli Golan.  On Friday the IDF retaliated again for a stray mortar. With two mortars hitting Israel, the IDF will have no choice but to hit back.

Due to the rebel (FSA and Jihadi Forces) continued assault of Al-Baath, the location of the forward Iranian base in South-West Syria, the IDF will again use the opportunity to attack Assad’s forces.

The initial assault began just over a week ago, but has stalled in its goal of taking Al-Baath and splitting the regime’s control over the Damascs-Daraa highway. The Syrian regime forces and their Iranian allies have brough the battle close to the Israeli border, in fact 3 kilometers away.

According to the Syrian regime there are still Israeli drones flying over al-Baath and seemingly posted there for a follow up attack.

Given the fact that Prime Minister Netanyahu has insisted that Israel won’t allow Syrian and Iranian troops to take up positions on the Golan border, Israel may have not choice but to step up attacks with or without continued provocation.

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ROCKET ATTACK: Calm With Syria Lasts Less than a Day

At ten last night a rocmet from Syria hit Israeli territory in the Golan. The IDF reported no injuries. The attack wrecked the short calm in attacks from Syria.

The question in military circles is whether the IDF will use this spillover to attack Syrian regime forces like before. The Israeli backed Syrian militias known as the FSA is in the middle of a huge operation to free the Damascus-Daraa road from regime and Iranian forces.

Israel has been lightly aiding the FSA with attacks when hit first by stray rockets.