Putin Archives - Page 14 of 15

In the Islamic world deals with Israel are akin to making deals with the Satan. Iran is trying to paint Turkey as a collaborator with Israel and anti-Islamic. Turkey may or may not follow through with the gas deal, but Iran is not a consideration to them, energy is.

Nasrallah says Hezbollah will Retaliate for Samir Kuntar’s Death

Nasrallah may opt for confrontation against Israel in the form of infiltrating the North His operative capabilities have been smashed by ISIS and while it is true that he possesses lots of missiles direct conflict will bring him ruin.

Iran pulling Revolutionary Guards out of Syria

The real story behind this is the strategic leverage Iran loses with Russia. Russia wanted to use Iran as its ground army, without it, Iran has little value for Russia other than keeping quiet.

December 21, 2015February 9, 2016

Putin Has the Israel Weapon

The question isn’t whether Putin helped Israel kill Samir Kuntar, it is why Russia aided Israel in attacking one of the leaders of Iran’s terror squads against Israel. Putin had to be in on the operation since the deconfliction mechanism between Israel and Russia force compliance on both parties in air sorties over either Northern Israel or Southern Syria.

Analysts and pundits across geopolitical divide have wondered the extent of Russian and Israeli partnership. Some passed it off as a necessary evil on the part of Israel and others hailed the change in strategic trajectory for Israel. It has not been clear. The Kuntar assassination clears most of the guessing up. If there was a doubt that Israel and Russia were not developing a robust partnership that is now gone. Once more the rapprochement between Israel and Turkey has not had any effect on this growing partnership between Russia and Israel.

Putin Does Not Trust Iran

Putin has never ascribed to Iran’s goal of establishing a Persian controlled Middle East. Russia would like to be in control of the region in as far as the oil and its military bases are concerned. A strong Iran provides Putin with a serious challenge down the road. The problem is that Putin needs Iranian troops and ground support in Syria so he does not repeat the Russian mistakes of Afghanistan in the 1980s. Right now because he has placed very little Russian soldiers into the fray, he is receiving huge support from the Russian citizenry.

While Russia needs Iranian troops, it does not need Iran exploiting the partnership in hopes it gets an edge up on Israel. Putin knows a cornered Israel could create a far bigger problem. Russia is also receiving advanced intelligence from Israel on ISIS positions.

Israel is Checking Iran for Putin

Putin, always the master chess player allows Israel to check Iran’s positions so he himself will not have to do it. The trade is that Israel allows Putin use of its airspace from time to time and offers intelligence for Russia’s campaign. Essentially, Israel is acting as Putin’s short leash on Iran. Iran has no choice but to follow along. After all it is piggy backing on Russia’s involvement in saving Assad and pushing back on Turkey.

In an odd way Israel and Iran serve as both tactical spokes in Putin’s regional strategy as well as balancers between them. Putin may not be interested in any grand peace deal the way Foggy Bottom has always been, but Putin does want regional order as he brings the Russians back into a global leadership position. If reports are to be believed Iran has significantly scaled down their ground involvement in Syria from it once was. Iran may have been helpful and still may be, but only as a tool to Putin’s grand strategy and nothing more. Checking Iran by way of Israel seems the best way to assuring that.

December 18, 2015February 9, 2016

Turkey and Israel, Friends Again?

We live in a strange world. As the American uni-polar world collapses, alliances are born and others fall away. Partnerships are formed based on near term survival, without consideration for the long view. Turkey, by all estimates was heading into the dustbin. Surrounded by Russia to the North East, Iran to the South East, and a resurgent Assad to the South with Russia behind him, Erdogan, the Sultan not to be was cornered. Russia supplies most of Turkey’s gas. Without Russia’s gas, Turkey would collapse due to a lack of energy.

Israel an Energy Leader

Israel rushed through the gas deal this week, not only because of the new energy alliance with Greece, Cyprus, and Egypt, but because of the secret deal now reveled to the World. Turkey would be given a life line and pulled out of its corner and Israel would act as the senior partner in the relationship.

Leadership requires making decisions even if they are unpopular. Erdogan is not a nice guy. He slaughters Kurds and denies his country’s role in the Armenian genocide, but Israel is in a different place now and chose to offer Turkey the lifeline it needed.

Two Viewpoints

There have been two pervading viewpoints int he defense establishment in Israel. One is to work with Russia and embrace Assad in order to return stability to the Middle East. The other is to build relationships that will counteract Iran no matter the cost of stability and Russian tactical considerations. The Turkey move, means the latter won out.

What of Greece and Cyprus?

Greece and Cyprus need Israel far more than it needs them. The returning to ties with Turkey is a cold one, brought on by Jerusalem’s concern about Iran and Syria coming out of this war in a clearly unstoppable manner. Strengthening Turkey in a non-emotional way provides a push back to the Shiites. None of the maneuvers we are seeing are the products of long term strategic planning. The post USA Middle East is too new to learn where the lines will be drawn.

Out of Putin’s own Playbook

Israel agreed to the return of relations with Turkey only because of the gas pipeline Turkey is willing to lay for Israel. By becoming the major gas provider to Turkey Israel holds the upper hand in the relationship. Mess with Israel and Turkey loses its gas. This has been Putin’s strategy with Europe for years.

A Dangerous Path

With Russia preparing for a possible war with Turkey and their tactical partnership with Iran, throwing a way out to Erdogan puts us in an uncomfortable situation. Putin clearly views Erdogan as enemy number one. Israel helping him does not bode well for our relationship with Russia. It could be there was never anything to talk about with Putin and that Jerusalem decided to move forward before Putin and company decided to put the Jewish Nation into a more uncomfortable spot. Whatever the reason, the new gas partnership puts Israel on the side of those counties Putin dislikes. In the coming weeks Israel will have to go out of its way to play down the deal or potentially face the wrath of Putin and his forces.

December 7, 2015February 9, 2016

Putin on the Move

It is clear that Putin sees his mission to exterminate ISIS as well as the Syrian opposition to Assad. To Putin they are one and the same. This entails Russia successfully destroying Turkey’s supply lines to their ISIS allies. Right now Russia is doing this in the Western part of Syria by obliterating the Turkmen bases in the Kızıldağ district on the border of Turkey. After Kızıldağ the next logical place for Putin to focus on would be the remaining supply route from Turkey into Syria and that would be from the border of Turkey and Syria near Jarabulus a Syrian city that has a population 11,500. The road from there leads South along the Euphrates River to the Islamic State’s capital of Raqqah.

If Putin and Syrian ground forces continue to advance against both ISIS and the Turkish supply lines, ISIS will be crippled, leaving only Iraq as a solid territory under their rule. Yet, that too could be under fire soon as the Iraqi government has asked Russia to step in and kick Turkish forces from Northern Iraq.

If Russia succeeds with the help of Syrian and Iranian ground forces, Turkey will end up with an emboldened Kurdish presence to its South as well as a generational setback to Erdogan’s grand designs to be the neo-Sultan of the Middle East. The Sunni World would be in upheavel and the Middle East and the bulk of the world’s oil supply would be held by Russia and the Shiites (save for Saudi Arabia).

Closing the Bosphorous is Turkey’s Only Recourse

Below is the relevant text from the Montreux Convention Articles 19, 20, and 21 of agreed upon in 1936:

Article 19.

“In time of war, Turkey not being belligerent, warships shall enjoy complete freedom of transit and navigation through the Straits under the same conditions as those laid down in Article 10 to 18.”

“Vessels of war belonging to belligerent Powers shall not make any capture, exercise the right of visit and search, or carry out any hostile act in the Straits.”

Article 20.

“In time of war, Turkey being belligerent, the provisions of Articles 10 to 18 shall not be applicable; the passage of warships shall be left entirely to the discretion of the Turkish Government.”

Article 21.

“Should Turkey consider herself to be threatened with imminent danger of war she shall have the right to apply the provisions of Article 20 of the present Convention.”

We are all aware by now that Turkey has been slowing down Russian vessels and with that a Russian warship had a soldier standing on it with a shoulder guided missile in plain site. According to the above treaty Russia broke article 19 and Turkey very well may use that in the coming days to close the straits. Putin will have to reopen them by force setting the stage for a broad war against NATO. Erdoan is banking on NATO stepping in. Putin believes they will at the most make a token gesture out of Europe’s fear of having their gas cut in the dead of winter.

Of course Obama and the USA are stuck between two converging realities. With the ISIS attack in San Bernadino last week, Obama would be hard pressed to defend Turkey given Russia’s proof that Erdogan has been assisting ISIS and then again not defending Turkey would mean that Russia and Iran would be in control of much of the Middle East and the Black Sea with Russia having an acute ability to dictate the future of Europe. Right now Obama seems frozen or pre-occupied in order to turn the domestic situation to some sort of advantage for his agenda.

Iran Filling the Void in the Syrian Golan

While Russia makes moves to flatten Turkey and their aspirations, Iran is using their tactical pact with Russia to take over the positions ISIS and Al Nusra once had in the Syrian side of the Golan. Israel’s leaders have made bellicose statements, but Iran stands undeterred as their pincher move is rapidly set up. Israel has one move and that is to strike now while Russia is involved in the North, but that brings another set consequences. The die is cast. The next moves on the chessboard of the now expanding Syrian conflict is Israel’s and Turkey’s.

December 6, 2015February 9, 2016

Israel Behind the News [Dec 6,2015]

Unprecedented: Supreme Court authorized remand extension in absence of minor detainee

The GSS Interrogated Detainees Relatives

The ongoing usage of court orders to effectively silence young Israelis by keeping them in jail without charges is getting out of hand. The GSS (General Security Services) Jewish Division has a history of creating smoke when there is no way to make an actual fire. With thin evidence, clear alibis, the GSS would rather sow division and accusation than follow normative rules of law. Essentially the GSS is a leftover dinosaur from days gone by, but is now used as a political tool by the regime.

Netanyahu: The other side needs to decide if they want peace

Netanyahu’s clear push back against John Kerry’s remarks signals something much deeper than typical bravado. in the waning influence of Western Europe and the USA on the Middle East, Kerry’s remarks almost seem like nonsense. Israel’s position as it stands in the world is far stronger than Kerry would have everyone believe. Netanyahu knows most Israeli’s are behind on these issues.

Ya’alon: US is ceding leadership in Mideast to Russia, Iran

Despite Yaalon’s poor handling of security inside the territories and his propensity for anti-settler remarks, he is right on the money in the above respect. The USA is ceding ground to Russia in the Middle East and although there is a tacit agreement between Putin and Bibi, it is not at all clear where all of this will end up. Unlike Bibi and others, who are comfortable moving East, Yaalon’s old guard view is nervous about the prospect of a Middle East without American involvement.

Tag: Putin

Israel Behind the News [Dec 22, 2015]