Tag: Obama

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Turkey Coup: The Coming NATO Civil War

As the counter coup continues to rage, Erdogan is gaining more and more power by the day.  The dream of a resurgent Ottoman Empire is not just a fantasy anymore.  Whether the coup was a false flag event or a poorly executed attempt orchestrated by Fetullah Gulen, Erdogan’s nemesis, the counter coup is already changing the dynamic of Turkey and its relationship with NATO.

“The President pledged any needed assistance to the Turkish government as they conduct an investigation to determine exactly what happened,” Josh Earnest, White House spokesman told reporters.

Although the statement appears to be positive, the following caveat on the investigation holds within it a powerful message and hint to where things will go.  Earnest continued with the following: “[Obama] believes that investigation should be conducted consistent with the democratic principles that are enshrined in Turkey’s constitution.”

What is clear, is that Erdogan is ignoring Turkey’s constitution.  He has arrested and purged thousands.  He has shut down opposition media and is on his way to becoming the 21st century sultan redux.  

The Obama administration knows this.  Despite Obama’s early bromance with Erdogan, he and his advisors have grown to despise his continued power grabs and meddling in the Middle East.  The challenge for the West is that Turkey is no pushover, they have the second largest military in NATO, second only to the USA.  

Erdogan has been using NATO as cover throughout his tenure, knowing that eventually he would either leave or be jettisoned out of the alliance.  The problem is that NATO needs Turkey far more than Turkey need NATO right now.  NATO membership was always a moderating force on Turkey’s actions.  Whether or not Turkey formally leaves, from here on out Erdogan will not take NATO membership into consideration as he moves to rebuild the lost Ottoman empire.  At its peak it reached from Greece to Iraq. Erdogan won’t get it all back, but he will try to uncover areas that are weak and if successful he will push on.

Ottoman Empire
Boundaries of the Ottoman Empire in 1795

At one point and time NATO will have to stop their east most neighbor member.  The conflict will be fought through economics and proxies, but it will be fought.  Afterall, Erdogan is a believer and is determined to see his dreams through. Ironically the schism in NATO reminds one of the last time Europe split into two, between the Western and Roman Empires.  History repeats itself, sometimes in the most brutal ways.

 

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Is Washington Finally Getting Fed Up With Turkey?

What started out like a budding relationship between Obama and Erdogan, has now gone way beyond simple agitation.  The coup in Turkey may have put the final nail in the coffin for what was supposed to be an American backed drive to rule the Middle East.

Early in Obama’s tenure, he believed that Turkey could become the lynchpin to US policy in the region.  That was 7.5 years ago.  Today’s relation is fraying at the seams and with months to go before Obama’s departure, the tightening of Erdogan’s rule following the “coup” may push it over the cliff.

Erdogan has essentially used the failed coup to purge the government and country of non-loyal forces.  Although the USA supports a stable and strong Turkey, Erdogan using it as leverage to strike back at opponents is worrisome to the Obama administration. “We will certainly support bringing the perpetrators of the coup to justice, but we also caution against a reach that goes well beyond that,” Secretary of State John Kerry said on Monday. “We also firmly urge the government of Turkey to maintain calm and stability throughout the country, and we also urge the government of Turkey to uphold higher standards of respect for the nation’s democratic institutions and the rule of law.”

With Turkey getting the cold shoulder from the United States and of course near isolation by Russia, this puts it in a very difficult position with little or no wiggle room.  This is what makes Bibi’s continued acceptance of the Israel Turkish reconciliation deal so strange. Why would Israel want to throw Erdogan a life vest?

“Israel and Turkey recently agreed on a reconciliation process between them. We assume that this process will continue without any connection to the dramatic events in Turkey over the weekend.” Bibi Netanyahu said yesterday.

The question for Israel is, how long will it wait to jump onboard the anti-Erdogan bandwagon? Afterall, if Obama and Putin can agree on the need to corner Erdogan, it pays to pivot alongside them rather than being left the only one still committed to some irrelevant deal.

 

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[Podcast] The Obama Effect: Syrian Chaos, ISIS, and Israeli Leadership

The Syrian civil war is a direct result of the Obama doctrine: Chaos is the key to ensuring Western order.  The problem with this sort of thinking is that chaos is never managed well, especially when Islamic radicals are used as the primary tool to spread the chaos.  Listen to today’s podcast and learn how Israel has had to maneuver within the chaos and war of the new Middle East.

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Trump, Israel, and the Need to Navigate the Global Chaos

Whether one likes Donald Trump or not, everyone agrees he has forever changed the landscape of American politics. The Donald’s scorched earth policy on his adversaries has not only worked to ensure he becomes the Republican nominee, it has upended the political and donor class of the US two party system.

No amount of will or force will be enough to give Americans what they crave.  The world has changed.

Americans have more or less opted to back a candidate who “will get things done,” rather than pay homage to the constitution and the framers’ vision of an exceptional nation.  The rest of the world has for many years seen things this way, yet for the US it has clung to a notion that it was different and special.  In truth, with spiraling debt, a waning military influence, and a generation of distracted spoiled youth, America may have in fact seen its best days behind it.  Of course this is what many out there, outside the beltway and big cities fear and this is exactly the type of fear Donald Trump draws his energy from.

No amount of will or force will be enough to give Americans what they crave.  The world has changed. The emerging economies of the East and Africa, coupled with innovation engines like Israel are changing the global dynamics overnight. It’s true Americans need a President that will get things done, but the Donald’s notion that one just needs to be a good manager and force a populist agenda will increase the chaotic downward spiral that American’s feel they are in.

 

Trump Ensures that Israel will Pivot Away from America

With Obama’s flip flopping on everything to do with foreign policy, especially when it comes to the Middle East, Israel has increasingly turned elsewhere for new partnerships.  Israel has grown closer to India and China as well as the Eastern African countries like Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia, and Rwanda. Relations are growing with a host of Eastern European countries as well as former Soviet Block nations like Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan.

Israelis crave stability and the last few years has put a monkey wrench in their country’s desire to carve a stable environment for their economy and populace to thrive.  Obama’s weak foreign policy has thrashed old paradigms, while creating a host of new challenges.  Trump’s chaos is too much for many Israeli leaders and his ascendancy may well drive Israel further towards China and even Russia. In an environment with increased instability, the Israeli government finds itself in an unenviable position in having to decide on putting stock into an America in decline versus positioning itself as the most reliable country in the Middle East with a neutral foreign policy.

Trump’s rhetoric, although welcome by many in Israel after eight years of a post American foreign policy approach by Obama, is far too erratic and unbalanced to be trusted to force a re-calibration of America’s interests.  More likely it will help entrench those very forces Israel is now dealing with.

 

Surviving the Coming Chaos Requires a New Paradigm in Partnership Building

Whether we like it or not, the world seems bent on heading into a period of tremendous chaos and instability. Trump’s ascendancy is only part of the reason for this. Other reasons include increased technology usage in developing nations, Islamic fundamentalism, a rising East, an imminent EU collapse, as well as others.

The situation does not have to be dire. Israel needs to continue to build reliable partnerships with countries like India, China, and Kenya.

If we create a partnership between Israel’s inventive capability and China’s manufacturing capability, we will have a winning combination.

Increasing trade ties between China and Israel have now led to discussion concerning a free trade agreement. Already back in 2013 Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “Israel is not as big as China. We have eight million residents, approximately one-third the population of Shanghai. But we manufacture more intellectual property than any other country in the world in relation to its size. If we create a partnership between Israel’s inventive capability and China’s manufacturing capability, we will have a winning combination.”

Israel is seen by many in Sub Saharan Africa as a reliable military and trading partner, with budding relationships mimicking the same trajectory that occurred between Israel and India over a decade ago.

The government will have to figure out what to do about Russia.  They are not going away and Putin may be the best suited to help Israel put pressure on Hezbollah and Iran. Whether it is Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton, Israel’s traditional geopolitical and economic relationships are permanently resetting. These newer partnerships Israel has been cultivating become an important part of creating a far more stable world order.

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Obama, Buhari, and the Preventing of a Free Biafra

“The Buhari administration I think has really reenergised the bilateral relationship in a fundamental way,” a United States official said as reports that it is seeking approval to sell Nigeria 12 A-29 Super Tucano light attack aircraft.  

Either the Obama administration is ignorant of Buhari’s human rights abuses against the Igbo in Biafra or they are complicit. Buhari has often used Boko Haram as a foil to generate arms and sympathy from the West.

The United States has begun to strengthen ties with Buhari ever since he attained power in Africa’s most populous country.  The previous President, Goodluck Jonathan was a friend of Israel and yet spurned the Obama administration. With Buhari now as President the tables have turned.  Nigeria is now ruled by a former military leader and an avowed Islamist.  

Given Obama’s engagement and pasting over of Buhari’s own abuses, little doubt remains that Obama knows of and believes Buhari’s Islamist background is a strength.

Obama has also strengthened US Special Forces throughout Africa, placing Nigeria as a priority.  Yet, given reports that Buhari has used weapons given to him to fight Boko Haram, on the Igbo in South East Nigeria as well as willfully encouraging Fulani Tribesman to butcher unarmed Igbos, one wonders why improving ties between the US government and Buhari is something to be cheered from the perspective of the USA.

Buhari has allowed the Fulani herdsman to run wild and murder the Igbo. Independence movements have grown, and a near unanimous belief that Buhari is complicit pervades Biafra.

At the end of the day, the Obama foreign policy has actively sought out to strengthen Islamic regimes at the expense of moderate actors, whether they have been secular Islamic states, Sub-Saharan Christians, or Israel. By selling military armaments to Buhari, the Obama administration has pitted itself against Israel’s growing presence in the region and has hampered Israel’s ability to militarily support an independent Biafra.