Tag: NATO

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Britain Mobilizes Against Russia

As tensions continue to rise between Russia and the West, Great Britain is moving 800 troops and tanks to the Russian border with Estonia.  Although the numbers seem small, they are in fact the largest NATO deployment since the Cold War. As Putin continues to assert his influence in Eastern Ukraine and the Syrian conflict places both super powers on opposite sides of the war, the chances for direct conflict between Russia and the USA increase daily.

The real question is what kind of deployment and why is Britain making it now.  Observers know  Putin is paranoid about NATO’s continued expansion and for good reason.  Eastern Europe has always been seen as falling into the Russian sphere of influence.  With Ukraine being the Russian line in the sand, Britain and other NATO members are making sure Putin won’t use Estonia as another front. Yet, there may be another reason altogether.  NATO knows war is coming as does Russia, yet neither one wants to be blamed for being the belligerent party.  Placing troops in Estonia could be NATO’s way of baiting Putin to make his first move.

Whether a plan for more or just defending the rest of Europe, Britain’s deployment is a sign that things are not going to calm down anytime soon.

“Black Sea a Russian Lake”

To the South, the Black Sea has virtually been taken over by Russia with Turkey even calling it a Russian lake. Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey are busy putting together a plan to increase naval and air patrols in the area, as well as a multinational NATO brigade in Romania.

With Russia pulling out of international nuclear treaties 2 onths ago and moving nuclear missiles forward to its border, the West has been left to scramble to try putting togther a coherent policy. Without clear American leadership it is assumed that Russia will continue to dominate the region and keep its global influence growing.

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Break the BDS

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BREAKING NEWS: Israel Aligns with NATO as Alliance Frays at the Seams

Israel is celebrating its opening of a permanent mission to NATO.  The role was n question until Turley and Israel patched their differences up and renewed diplomatic ties.  

“Israel attributes great importance to its relations with NATO. The opening of a permanent office reflects Israel’s role in promoting peace and stability in the region,” Leshno-Yaar, Israel’s ambassador to the EU said in the statement.

Despite the positive development that took years to achieve, the strategic landscape across the world is drastically different from just a few years ago.  NATO is not what it used to be.  This is due both to a reassertive Russia as well as major differences in NATO’s use of an intervention force.

Break the BDS

With NATO having overstepped its bounds in many areas from Eastern Europe to North Africa a growing chorus of anti-interventionists have begun to push back and openly question NATO’s purpose and mission in a world vastly different that even the post-cold war period.

 

With this in mind it begs the question of why Israel needs to be part or even tacitly connected to the alliance. The answer is it doesn’t.

The only reason why Israel is pushing ahead with its NATO mission is ensure that remains on more than friendly terms with NATO.  A receding NATOis just as interventionist as always, but just a bit weaker. In a volatile world Israel wants to make sure it keeps its foot in the west as it continues to court Russia and China.

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The Fall of Europe and the Coming New World Reorder

As Brexit seems increasingly likely, mainland Europe has become unhinged. Britain was always seen as a responsible partner in an endeavor that appeared more like a college philosophy class than a productive geopolitical entity. With Britain leaving and the rest of the EU states dependent on Germany for leadership, the chances of averting an EU implosion appears to be nil.

This is why Merkel and others are irrate over Britain’s departure.  Not because they are missing out on a desired relationship, but it begins a process where the elitists in Brussels will lose their hold on the power centers built up after the fall of the Berlin wall.

Trump is Right About Russia

The main foreign policy debate between Donald Trump and the Neo-Conservative establishment now led by Hillary Clinton is the future relationship with Russia.  Donald Trump inately understands that the USA has an issue when it comes to Russia.  His approach is essentially to work with Russia and a lesser degree the Chinese to bring about a far different world order, which he and his supporters believe will be far more stable.

The Neo-Conservatives in Washington are scared by this approach.  They had put their hopes on a stable world order by enforcing interventionists policies through NATO. A Trump victory, which seems far more likely now will reshuffle the world order by creating a multi-polar world that is stable.

Expect to see the USA, Russia, Britain, China, and possibly India work together to divide the world into spheres of influence between them.

As Europe falls apart and the UN increasingly becomes useless, the importance of different actors is a necessity.  The only challenge is whether the old guard wants to give in.

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Edging Towards WW3

Now that the Putin backed United Russia party secured a clear majority in the Russian Duma, Putin can begin to tackle the challenges growing on Russia’s western front mainly the Ukraine. The EU backed government in Kiev has been in an on and off war between the break away pro-Russian regions of the Donbass.  Russia sees these regions as a natural part of its territory.

With the EU move towards a united EU army to offset the crumbling NATO alliance, Putin views the EU as a direct threat to his territorial ambitions.  This is essentially why Putin has been on the move both westward and in the Middle East.  The Russians, like other former empires view their territorial reach in the past as a goal to get to in the future. For Russia that is all the way to Germany as well as rehabilitation of direct influence in the Middle East.

Eurasian Union as a threat to the Neo Conservative Agenda

Russia’s goal of uniting formerly Soviet states under the rubric of  Russian controlled economic sphere has already rattled the nerves of Western leaders.  However, Russia’s growing cooperation with China puts both  NATO and other Western powers on the defensive.  This is essentially what NATO is doing by deploying troops and fomenting regime change in the Ukraine and Syria.

With the two developing powers of Russia and China essentially agreeing to work together to roll back the post Cold-War world order, the leadership in America, Britain, and Brussels are throwing down the gauntlet in Ukraine.  This is where things will get dicey.

 Trump a Game Changer

Up until now both Western leaders and their Russian and Chinese counterparts were willing to play along with the 21st century Big Game, but the impending Trump victory due to Clinton’s collapse (both figuratively and literally) changes the calculus of Western leaders.  Trump has made his admiration and willingness to work with Putin public. If the Donald wins, world politics as we know it bound to change and this is what makes the Neo-Conservative agenda drivers nervous.

In the coming weeks look for a October surprise in Eastern Ukraine as Washington and the EU interject themselves into the conflict in order to head off any rapprochement with Russia. These sorts of actions replayed not only in Eastern Europe but in the South China Sea as well, will directly affect the pace and thrust of war between NATO, Russia, and China.

The world is about to be set ablaze by a crumbling order that made its money off the outcome of World War 2 and the Cold War.  Putin understands the West is frantic and yet this chaos that is swirling provides him with little maneuvering room going forward. From here on out until inauguration day, expect increased volatility as WW3 closes in.

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BREAKING NEWS: Turkey Driving Hard Against Kurds West of the Euphrates

If it is possible to believe Erdogan, his foray into Syria was for the purpose of driving ISIS from Jarablus, the only piece of land the Syrian Kurds did not control. Erdogan’s forces were of such mass that Turkey was accused of invading Syria.  ISIS quickly melted away and the Turkish military set its sights on the true “nemesis” to the Turkish homeland YPG or the Kurdish army in Syria.  

One thing has become clear.  Erdogan’s actions have put NATO in a very uncomfortable spot.  On one hand they have backed the Syrian Kurds as their vanguard attack force against ISIS and on the other they have the second largest NATO force in Turkey openly trying to wipe them out through a fake anti-ISIS operation.

Turkey has long maintained that a contiguous Kurdish state along its border running from the Mediterranean to Iran was an existential threat.  In pushing the Kurds back over the Euphrates they are risking the NATO coalition’s strategy against ISIS.  The Euphrates must be Washington’s red line.  If Turkey is allowed to press on, the Kurds will be forced to pivot elsewhere and not only NATO will lose a valuable indigenous ally, Israel will have squandered years of covert training and arms deals.