The Quiet Revolution

Darkness feels like it’s everywhere these days.  From ISIS, Iran, and Hezbollah on our borders and the slow motion Palestinian Intifada within, our enemies are literally surrounding us.  Old friends are in disarray and our new partners are untrustworthy. The government in Israel seems almost wishful in its outlook on our geopolitical situation and far too fixated on political gain by locking up young settler activists without trial.

The government has gone seemingly mad.  One day they are building an alliance with Greece, Cyprus, and Egypt and the next they are entertaining the idea of rapprochement with Turkey.

So why the confusion?

The State of Israel was born out of two conflicting historical movements. One was the 19h century nationalist movement that had swept the European continent and inspired European Jews to build for themselves a National Homeland in their historic home located in the Land of Israel.

The second movement popped up after the Holocaust and before National Independence in 1948. It what an international movement by the world to give the Jews a State a sort of amelioration for the slaughter that was purpotrated by the Nazis and their supporters during WW2. This movement came at the tailend of the Revolt in which the three competing Jewish paramilitary units in the Holy Land were attempting to push out the British. It is no accident that the British would have have saved millions of Jews if not for their whitepaper and yet despite the loss to the Jewish Nation, the Jews of the Palestinian Mandate pushed on against the one of the World’s strongest Nations.

Before the British could be embarrassed the amelioration movement, which had nothing to do with Zionism came in and saved the British. On the 29th of November 1947 Resolution 181 was passed by the UN and despite its never being implemented the Resolution cemented in the World’s mind that the State of Israel, (which would have been born with or without the UN) was birthed exclusively by the United Nations as a reaction to the Holocaust.

The sad irony that it was in fact Britain whose policies kept Jewish immigration to the mandate at near standstill while Jews were being slaughtered by the Nazis by the millions standing behind the fledgling Jewish State is not accidental. The young state would not last against the British trained Arab forces and in due time would have to invite the British back in. Of course the opposite happened and yet the colonial mentality persists and pervades the ruling elite in Israel.

The idea that Israel is a creation of the UN buries the gains the Zionist Revolution made within the hearts of the masses before the partition plan was drafted.  After all it was not us with the Almighty at our backs that pushed the British out, it was they they British who gave us our State. This causes a yearning to be loved by the Nations and creates an incoherent geopolitical strategy.

Noting the historical amnesia of the Jewish Nation, Rabbi Yehuda HaKohen, founder of Lavi Olami notes in a 2008 op-ed the following:

“Like the American Revolution, the Zionist Revolution succeeded in liberating a country from the mighty British Empire. And this was no small achievement for Jewish people who, only three years earlier, were being systematically butchered by the millions in Europe. Freedom was won in blood and fire by heroic young fighters willing to give their lives so that future generations would see a Hebrew flag over Jerusalem. But aside from this near-impossible feat, the Zionist Revolution also had – and still has – several more seemingly unattainable tasks to accomplish.”

Despite the setbacks and void in leadership at the national level, a quiet revolution is afoot. More and more people are recognizing that the path forward is to once again cultivate our roots. Silently and nearly methodically there has been an organic growth in young activists looking out at the regional landscape and seeing their own indigenous experience and wanting to hook back into it. It is this connection to the Land and Nation that young zionists within Israel are beginning to lay as the foundation for going forward.

More than this though, the Zionist Revolution calls on the people of Israel to elect and support leaders that partner with like minded indigenous nations in the region as well as economic and military policies that are independent from the needs of the interests of the global elites and neo-conservative elements entrenched in American foreign policy institutions.

A successful revolution means foreign organizations and global corporations who do not have the Jewish Nation’s best interests are to be kept out of decision making. Sadly our current leaders, from Naftali Bennett to Bibi Netanyahu at the very least believe the State of Israel has achieved its revolution and perhaps they have succumbed to the spirit that we were in fact born out of the ovens and gas chambers of the Holocaust rather than as a result of the immovable destiny of our ancient Nation.  

Thankfully, there are those who see things differently, who place the revolution still ahead of us. From the throngs of Temple Mount activists, to the young guard in the Likud as well Moshe Feiglin’s new party Zehut, Israel’s future is bright as the body politic across the country has begin to shed to darkness of the exile in order to embrace a far more expansive future.  

The challenges ahead are immense and in many ways the Nation of Israel has survived far more dire circumstances, but at the end of the day the leaders of our past were guided by the fears of the Holocaust without concern to the future. If Israel can embrace a complete faith in its cause and tap into the strength of its forefathers it will acquire the ability to deal with its enemies, while properly deciphering wrong from right. Only then will the Zionist Revolution have the ability to fulfill its true potential.

The world finds itself in a moment of chaos. Our leaders have been swept up by foreign ideals and goals.  Ultimately only a clear sighted vision based on truth and faith will lead us out of the darkness we are in.

 

Israel Behind the News [Dec 27, 2015]

Israel strikes Hezbollah targets in Syria

The deconfliction mechanism seems to be in effect as Israel continues to be aloud to attack Hezbollah with impunity. As we have noted before, this serves Russia’s interests by keeping Iran and its client groups in check. The question remains though, at what juncture does this sort of thing get in the way of Putin’s Syria strategy or what happens if the deconfliction mechanism fails?

ISIS Leader directly threatens Israel

Although Russia is destroying ISIS throughout Syria, the leader of the Caliphate El-Baghdadi saw the need to reassert himself into the geopolitical situation by threatening Israel.  Don’t expect direct attacks yet, but using Israel to rally Jihadists from around the world is a clever strategy.  It also means that those who oppose El-Baghdadi are in support of Israel.

Yehuda Glick Next in Line for Likud in Knesset

Yehuda Glick, one of the leading Temple Mount activists is surprisingly set yo enter the Knesset if one more Likud member leaves or is forced to resign.  This will put Jewish prayer rights on the mount center stage in the Knesset, something the Prime Minister fears, but can do very little about.

 

Israel Behind the Headlines [Dec 24,2015]

ISIS in Israel, Nabbed

Unfortunately, this will only get worse.  ISIS is an ideology as much as it is a terror organization/caliphate. The ideology spreads like an infection. The Muslim Arabs within the Land of Israel, even those that are citizens have been radicalized by their leaders. If the government must make it clear to those leaders that supporting ISIS is a red line.

Aliyah to Israel on the Rise, especially from France

The Jews of France are fleeing.  Many of the Jews in France are from Middle Eastern background and they understand that the Arabs moving in are not like the native Moroccan and Tunisian neighbors they have in France. The mass exodus will only continue as Europe ruptures and collapses under the migrant crisis.

Knife Attack Summary

Iran and the Jabal Al Druze Fiasco

The political and military echelon in Israel have often stated that Israel is staying neutral in the Syrian civil war.  Any attacks on Syrian targets were meant to prevent game changing weaponry from falling into the hands of Hezbollah. After all, they insisted, our enemies are killing each other. No one seemed to be able to foresee direct Russian involvement and with it Iranian ground troops moving closer to Israel.

When the dust settles between Russia and Turkey their ISIS allies, Iranian, Syrian, and Hezbollah forces will in fact attack Israel. Despite what the leadership will tell us, their “neutrality” during this war enabled Iranian troops to fill the void left open on the Syrian side of the Golan. This tactical blunder on Israel’s part could have been thwarted as late as this past June. Jabal Al Druze or otherwise known as Druze Mountain is a district and home to a large portion of the Syrian Druze population situated East of the Golan Heights on the border of Jordan.  It is a mountainous region and until the civil war the population remained 100% loyal to Assad.  

Jabal Al Druze

 

With chaos reigning, ISIS forces began closing in on Jabal Al Druze in June and since the Druze are considered apostates by the Jihadists, many experts believed they would be killed on mass. Israel’s own Druze population wanted more to be done and yet nothing overt was undertaken.  

All of this was before Russian involvement, when Assad looked as if he was finished. Israel’s opportunity to push their security line far to the East was missed and now a resurgent Assad can once again count on the loyalty of the Druze there.

One of the reasons why Israel did not go into Jabal Al Druze was because the Israeli elite abhor the appearance of seeming like the aggressor.  The problem with this approach and especially in this situation, was that the Druze really looked under threat and given Israel’s own loyal Druze populace and the blood bond many of them feel with the people of Israel, extending the IDF’s control over this area would have been wholly explainable to the international community.

By the way, it should be noted that Jabal Al Druze was actually an autonomous region from 1921 to 1936 when Syria was under French control.

Timing is Everything

Five months later, and the Middle East has changed into something unrecognizable. Timing is everything in war and staying neutral is never an option within a fluid situation.  Bibi Netanyahu’s strategy has always been to wait this out, but opportunities are lost when you don’t move in time. The loss of moving Israel’s security line East, by harnessing a thankful Druze population in Southern Syria, now means Iran is at Israel’s border.

How fast the next stage of the conflict progresses is anyone’s guess, but if the last 2 months are an indication, staying out of Syria is no longer an option.

Putin on the Move

It is clear that Putin sees his mission to exterminate ISIS as well as the Syrian opposition to Assad.  To Putin they are one and the same. This entails Russia successfully destroying Turkey’s supply lines to their ISIS allies. Right now Russia is doing this in the Western part of Syria by obliterating the Turkmen bases in the Kızıldağ district on the border of Turkey.  After Kızıldağ the next logical place for Putin to focus on would be the remaining supply route from Turkey into Syria and that would be from the border of Turkey and Syria near Jarabulus a Syrian city that has a population 11,500.  The road from there leads South along the Euphrates River to the Islamic State’s capital of Raqqah.

Jarabulus Google Maps

If Putin and Syrian ground forces continue to advance against both ISIS and the Turkish supply lines, ISIS will be crippled, leaving only Iraq as a solid territory under their rule. Yet, that too could be under fire soon as the Iraqi government has asked Russia to step in and kick Turkish forces from Northern Iraq.

If Russia succeeds with the help of Syrian and Iranian ground forces, Turkey will end up with an emboldened Kurdish presence to its South as well as a generational setback to Erdogan’s grand designs to be the neo-Sultan of the Middle East. The Sunni World would be in upheavel and the Middle East and the bulk of the world’s oil supply would be held by Russia and the Shiites (save for Saudi Arabia).

Closing the Bosphorous is Turkey’s Only Recourse

Below is the relevant text from the Montreux Convention Articles 19, 20, and 21 of agreed upon in 1936:

Article 19.

“In time of war, Turkey not being belligerent, warships shall enjoy complete freedom of transit and navigation through the Straits under the same conditions as those laid down in Article 10 to 18.”

“Vessels of war belonging to belligerent Powers shall not make any capture, exercise the right of visit and search, or carry out any hostile act in the Straits.”

Article 20.

“In time of war, Turkey being belligerent, the provisions of Articles 10 to 18 shall not be applicable; the passage of warships shall be left entirely to the discretion of the Turkish Government.”

Article 21.

“Should Turkey consider herself to be threatened with imminent danger of war she shall have the right to apply the provisions of Article 20 of the present Convention.”

We are all aware by now that Turkey has been slowing down Russian vessels and with that a Russian warship had a soldier standing on it with a shoulder guided missile in plain site. According to the above treaty Russia broke article 19 and Turkey very well may use that in the coming days to close the straits.  Putin will have to reopen them by force setting the stage for a broad war against NATO. Erdoan is banking on NATO stepping in.  Putin believes they will at the most make a token gesture out of Europe’s fear of having their gas cut in the dead of winter.

Of course Obama and the USA are stuck between two converging realities.  With the ISIS attack in San Bernadino last week, Obama would be hard pressed to defend Turkey given Russia’s proof that Erdogan has been assisting ISIS and then again not defending Turkey would mean that Russia and Iran would be in control of much of the Middle East and the Black Sea with Russia having an acute ability to dictate the future of Europe.  Right now Obama seems frozen or pre-occupied in order to turn the domestic situation to some sort of advantage for his agenda.

Iran Filling the Void in the Syrian Golan

While Russia makes moves to flatten Turkey and their aspirations, Iran is using their tactical pact with Russia to take over the positions ISIS and Al Nusra once had in the Syrian side of the Golan. Israel’s leaders have made bellicose statements, but Iran stands undeterred as their pincher move is rapidly set up. Israel has one move and that is to strike now while Russia is involved in the North, but that brings another set consequences. The die is cast. The next moves on the chessboard of the now expanding Syrian conflict is Israel’s and Turkey’s.

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