[watch] WAR DRUMS: USS Cole to the Red Sea, Fresh Sanctions on Iran, Ayatollah Warns

Things are continuing to heat up in the Middle East as the US Military has sent the USS Cole to patrol off the coast of Yemen following a Houthi attack on a Saudi Arabian vessel earlier in the week.  This has been coupled with the Trump administration adding fresh sanctions to the Iranian regime. With tensions rising between the US and Iran, the Ayatollah has threatened to attack US interests in the region.

Iranian Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh said the following in response to the sanctions:

“If the enemy does not walk the line, our missiles come down on them.” He continued to say “We are working day and night to protect Iran’s security. If we see smallest misstep from the enemies, our roaring missiles will fall on their heads.” 

The war of words and posturing have continued with President Trump threatening Iran on Twitter:

While the Ayatollah and the President continue to verbally attack one another, Secretary of Defense Mattis has been in Asia , seemingly to build an anti-Iranian coalition.

Things To Look Out For

With the USS Cole back in the Red Sea and the Iranians pressed by the Trump administration, look for an attack against the battleship in order to force Trump to resspond.  Another thing to pay attention to is whether or not the US will convince Putin’s Russia to part ways with Iran. If so, the Ayatollahs will have no choice but to attack.

Iran Runs into Problems with Donald Trump’s Administration…Is War Closer Than We Think?

The recent Iranian ballistic missile launch has brought a fiery response by the Trump Administration.  National Security Adviser Mike Flynn declared Wednesday: “As of today, we are officially putting Iran on notice.”

Flynn’s pronouncement is the first push back by the new White House against what has been flagrant violations by Iran of the nuclear agreement they signed last year with the major world powers. According to the Wall Street Journal, “Administration officials, while providing few specifics, said Mr. Trump has begun a process of reviewing current U.S. policy and is “considering a whole range of options,” including tougher sanctions. Asked if military force also was one of the options, the officials didn’t rule it out.”

With Houthi rebels backed by Iran revving up their attacks on Saudi Arabia and Hezbollah preparing for conflict with Israel, the Trump administrations much needed push back against Iranian aggression maybe be the last maneuver before the opening of a wider conflict.  It is no secret that Secretary of Defense Mattis is working hard to construct an anti-Iranian coalition of moderate Sunni states, Israel, and Turkey. Russia has become a key player in the shifting alliances as Putin looks like he is ready to cut Iran loose.

In the coming weeks expect the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Aden to continue to heat up as both sides reach a boiling point.

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Is Israel Preparing for War?

According to reports, Israel’s Home Front Command is preparing for thousands of rockets to hit Israel during the next war.  Hezbollah is said to have a stockpile of 120,000 rockets.  Many of these rockets can hit anywhere in Israel. In preparation, the Home Front Command is revamping its entire warning system.  It currently divides the country into 264 polygon alert zones in which a siren is activated once the flight path and expected landing area of a missile or rocket is calculated.

According to the Jerusalem Post “Israel’s already state-of-the-art alert system is being upgraded, as the number of polygon alert zones is set to increase to a few thousand by April 2018. The increase in zones means that, as opposed to a siren sounding for an entire city, individual neighborhoods or streets will be alerted to take shelter.”

How Close Is War?

With the new detente between the Trump Administration and Putin actively changing the dynamics in Syria, Hezbollah and Iran sense an abrupt change in their relationship to Russia. The divergent interests of Iran and Russia are beginning to come to the surface as Putin looks to not only force a peace on Syria, but forge a long lasting alliance with the USA. Iran wants none of this. Its entry into the civil war had the goal of safeguarding its supply route to Hezbollah as well as creating a defacto Iranian presence on Israel’s northern border.

With Putin looking to quiet down the conflict most reports from the region claim that his next move is to force Iran out of Syria altogether. In an article published in December of 2015 we predicted this very situation:

Putin has never ascribed to Iran’s goal of establishing a Persian controlled Middle East. Russia would like to be in control of the region in as far as the oil and its military bases are concerned. A strong Iran provides Putin with a serious challenge down the road.  The problem is that Putin needs Iranian troops and ground support in Syria so he does not repeat the Russian mistakes of Afghanistan in the 1980s.  Right now because he has placed very little Russian soldiers into the fray, he is receiving huge support from the Russian citizenry.

While Russia needs Iranian troops, it does not need Iran exploiting the partnership in hopes it gets an edge up on Israel.  Putin knows a cornered Israel could create a far bigger problem.  Russia is also receiving advanced intelligence from Israel on ISIS positions.

While Iran is a formidable power, with Putin and Trump working together the Mullahs understand their ability to affect Syria maybe becoming to an end. An Iran with nothing to lose is a very dangerous Iran.  Expect the Ayatollahs and their henchman Hezbollah to throw the Levant off course.

Iran’s Ballistic Missile Test Is The First Push Back

Iran fired its first ballistic missile test since Donald Trump was sworn in as president.  The missile flew 500 kilometers before crashing. Bibi Netanyahu reacted immediately to the test by stating “it must not go unanswered.” The White House is still looking into the matter and will decide upon its response.  More importantly, the ballistic missile test is a message the changing alliances that are catching Tehran off guard: We will not go quietly.

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Is the F-35 Deal a Dud for Israel?

Despite the fanfare put on by the Israeli government upon the delivery of the first F-35s this past week, the plane itself may not be the deal the Israeli cabinet made it out to be. Since the beginning of the plan’s production in 2001. In the most extreme, critics call it the “million-dollar disaster,” while more moderate views claim it is over-hyped and far too expensive.

Below are some statements from notable industry experts:

“Even before the downgrades, some analysts questioned the F-35′s ability to defeat newer Sukhoi and Shenyang jets.”

-David Axe, military correspondent.

“It’s as if Detroit suddenly put out a car with lighter fluid in the radiator and gasoline in the hydraulic brake lines: That’s how unsafe this plane is…”

-Pierre Spray

In a report by POGO, a government oversight committee, Winslow Wheeler Director (2002-2014), Straus Military Reform quoted various pilots about the F-35:

There are additional problems for detecting threats in the all-important visual mode: the ejection seat headrest and canopy “bow” (where the canopy meets the fuselage) are designed in such a way as to impede seeing aircraft to the rear: one pilot commented “A pilot will find it nearly impossible to check [their six o’clock position{to the rear}] under g.” Another commented, “The head rest is too large and will impede aft visibility and survivability during surface and air engagements,” and “Aft visibility will get the pilot gunned [down] every time,” referring to close-range combat. (p. 18.)

Indeed, DOT&E stated explicitly “The out-of-cockpit visibility in the F-35 is less than other Air Force fighter aircraft.” (p. 17.)

To summarize in different words, the helmet-mounted display and the F-35 system does not present an enhanced, clearer view of the outside world, targets and threats to the pilot; instead, they present a distorted and/or obstructed view.  This is one of the most serious backward steps that the entire F-35 system takes, and it presents an even greater threat to the survivability of the F-35 and its pilot than the astounding evidence of the flammability of the F-35 (all versions) in the recent analysis of another DOT&E report by military analyst Lee Gaillard at Counterpunch.

In the event of the pilot needing to escape from the aircraft, there are also some incompletely explained problems with the ejection seat in “off-normal” situations, i.e. those that can occur in combat or even real training. (p. 43.)

If this plane is so bad, then why did the Israeli government go for the deal?  One word: IRAN. Everyone agrees the F-35 is expensive, but except for its most extreme detractors, most would also agree it has one redeeming quality, excellent stealth capabilities. Given the fact that its slower speeds are specifically built for precision attacks on multiple targets, it is not a surprise that Israel Air force Industries and the government toook a chance on the F-35 as long they would be able to override the American computer codes and enhance them.

The MiGFlug Blog says the following:

The F-35 is not mainly built for high speeds, it is built as an attack aircraft (as well), like the A-10 Thunderbolt II and therefore needs low speeds to be able to shoot at the enemy on the ground for longer times before passing it. The radar cross section is one of the world’s smallest even in a clean loadout, not to mention when the others start loading weapons on their wings which further increases the radar cross section of them compared to the F-35. It does not have the best dog fight capabilities due to its big size (Sprey calls it “fat”) and the big engine fan behind the cockpit which limits the sight backwards, but modern air-to-air battles are supposed to be mainly BVR (beyond visual range) engagements which means that all fighters will depend on their radar- and IR missiles rather than they depend on their dogfighting skills.

With Bibi’s visit to Azerbaijan, the F-35 fits tightly into Israel’s potential Iran attack strategy if Trump tears up the nuclear accords upon entering office. It may have been a pork barrel project in terms of the American tax payer and not live up to industry hype, but if used correctly by Israel it may be the the right kind of tool to be used to knock out Iran’s nuclear program.

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With Visit to Azerbaijan is Bibi Preparing to Strike Iran?

For several years, Azerbaijan has played an important role in helping Israel, by providing a base of operations for clandestine missions involving intelligence gathering on Iranian nuclear progress. Azerbaijan is a secular Muslim nation that has had friendly ties to Jews and Israel.  It is known as the safest place for Jews in the Muslim world. 40% of Israel’s oil is said to be provided by Azerbaijan via the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhancom (BTC) pipeline. Israel supplies state of the art weaponry to Azerbaijan in its off again on again war with Armenian separatists.

In November I reported on the possibility that Israel already has the ability with drone technology to use Azerbaijan to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities at Arak. With Bibi Netanyahu’s state visit to Azerbaijan today, one has to wonder what the need is for a face to face with President Ilham Aliyev in Baku unless it is to further both covert and overt defense ties in relation to Iran and Azerbaijan’s on again and off again war with Armenia, an Iranian ally.

As Donald Trump prepares to take over the White House on Jan. 20th, the Iranian Nuclear Deal is likely to be scrapped. Azerbaijan will become ground zero for any Israeli response to Iranian aggression.

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