Tag: Iran

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Is the Syrian Regime Getting One Last Battle In Before Today’s Ceasfire Kicks In?

Arab news reports are filled with an ongoing battle in the Syrian Golan, close to the DMZ that separates Israel’s Golan, from the Syrian held Golan.  The Syrian regime and their Iranian allies are skeptical of the ceasefire deal Russia and the US have inked and have made it clear to teir Russian counterparts they have little intention of following it for long.

After all, the Syrian regime has been on a role and has drawn close to the Israeli border.  The Russian ceasefire essentially freezes Syria’s war on the FSA, but at the same time places Russian military police in charge of the area.

As the battle rages between the Syrian regime and rebel forces in the Quneitra region, Israel has taken no chances and has used drones and other surveliance tools to monitor the battle as the ceasefire comes in. Iran has made it clear they will use the ceasefire to regroup and build up their Syrian allies to be ready to take more rebel controlled territory near the Israeli border when the ceasefire collpases.

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TWO FRONT WAR: Iran is Sharing ICBM Technology with North Korea

Donald Trump issued the following Tweet in reaction to this morning’s North Korean ICBM launch that had the potential to hit Alaska.

Despite the bravado, the Tweets do not hide the utter shock in North Korea’s ability to make serious advancements in its ICBM program.  Today’s test was supposed to be a year away.  This puts pressure on the Trump administration to respond accordingly.

Yet, how did the situation reach this point?  Disregarding the last 17 years of foolish attempts at convincing North Korea to stop, the last several months has seen their program has grown considerably.

Iran is Developing North Korea’s ICBM Technology

The partnership built around missile development and nuclear technology between Iran and North Korea has only grown stronger since the Obama administration reached a deal on Iran’s nuclear program.

North Korea tests missiles then sells the know how to Iran who in turn tests and improves the missile and then sends the updated specs back to North Korea.  This is the explanation of how the Kim Jong Un regime has reached impressive levels of missile capability is disconcerning and means that the Trump administration is essentiall fighting a two front war. It also means that the North Korean and Iranian issue are ver intertwined.

Israel Defense Analyst Tal Inbar wrote in May:

“The ‘accuracy revolution’ is a process we see in many countries’ rockets and missile forces,” Inbar wrote. “North Korea’s close ally, Iran, which bought the technical know-how on ballistic missiles from North Korea, introduced a new generation of ballistic missiles with a forward section containing a set of movable fins and guidance equipment.”

Taking on One Means Taking on Two

Micha Gefen reported in April about the interconnection of the two programs.

“It has been known for some time that Iranian missile technology was developed in North Korea.  Both regimes see the USA as their number one enemy and have worked together to build a situation where they would pose a serious threat to the USA. To most observers North Korea and Iran are in constant coordination as can be seen from last week’s ballistic missile test in Ira, which followed North Korea’s launch of four missiles near Japan.

Researchers from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies published a research paper (.pdf) in January 2016 outlining Iran’s past and present military dealings with North Korea, concluding that “the signs of military and scientific cooperation between Iran and North Korea suggest that Pyongyang could have been involved in Tehran’s nuclear and ballistic-missile program, and that state-run trading companies may have assisted in critical aspects of Iran’s illicit nuclear-related activities.””

If America and its allies want to deal with North Korea, the Iranian advance accross Syria and its threat to the Israeli Golan must be taken into consideration.

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BREAKING: Renewed Battle in the Golan Demilitarized Zone Between Rebels and the Syrian Regime

Syrian sources are reporting that the battle for Al-Baath city, which lies in the demilitarized zone between Israel and Syria has been renewed.  So far the rebels that were pushed out of the strategic city last week, have yet to regain a foothold in Al-Baath, which is in the Quneitra province.

The sources indicate that Israeli jet fighters have launched supportive attacks against the regime forces in the area. The airstrikes struck regime army positions inflicting heavy losses both in personnel and military equipment to the regime.

Al-Baath City is strategic due to its location within the UNDOF zone.  Its control by the Syrian regime essentially puts Iran within striking distance of the Golan.

Prime Minister Netanyahu stated last week in Katzrin:

“We are here celebrating the fortieth anniversary of Katzrin, the capital of the Golan Heights. I said that we will not tolerate spillover and that we will respond to every firing. During my speech, shells from the Syrian side landed in our territory, and the IDF has already struck back. Whoever attacks us – we will attack him. This is our policy and we will continue with it.”

If the FSA is unable to retake Al-Baath, even with Israeli air support, Israel will be forced to either reconcile with an emboldened Iran on their border or enter the fray directly to hold them back.

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Syrian Troops with Hezbollah Clear Out Al-Baath, Is the Next Stop Israel?

Syria and Hezbollah are reporting that they have successfully cleaned Al-Baath city from rebel and Jihadi forces.  Al-Baath has been the target of intense fighting between rebel and regime forces for over a week. The city is strategic for its location closer to the Damascus-Daraa road which has been the main supply line for the regime forces fighting against Free Syrian Army associated militias in Daraa.

Al-Baath itself, is the headquarters for the Iranian and Hezbollah contingents in Western Syria.  The city’s fall gives the regime and its Iranian ally direct access to the Quneitra province.  It also forces the Israeli government into a bit of a quandary. Up until the Israeli army has opted for using retaliation strikes against the regime as a way of tacitly aiding the rebels as well as offering humanitarian aid.  It has worked until now.  With Syria and Iran now able to move within the Israeli buffer zone around the Golan, Prime Minister Netanyahu will be forced to decide whether to enter the Syrian Civil War directly or allow the Shiite juggernaut to take up positions on the Israeli border.

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Middle East Realignment Driven by China’s Drive to End Petrodollar Dominance

China’s goal is to become the leading economic superpower and to move the world away from the US dollar. They have been forming alliances with Middle Eastern countries including Iran, Qatar and Turkey. The petrodollar system is the primary reason the US dollar is still the world’s reserve currency as oil producing countries like Saudi Arabia do not sell their oil in currencies other than US dollars. Without this agreement, the US dollar would eventually lose its role as the global reserve currency. China has been working with countries in the Middle East to sell their oil in yuan and thereby weaken the US. 

The Chinese strategy has been to internationalize their currency via a number of different projects (see list below). A Zerohedge report in April articulates how China and Russia are joining forces to bypass the US dollar in global trade. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) described as a ‘Eurasian political, economic, and security organization’ is one of the means of executing that vision. Its members include China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Earlier this month, India and Pakistan were admitted as members. These countries are expected to further enhance their economic relations via trade. For China to successfully meet its goals, a larger base of countries must join this block. 

Iran

According to this report, bilateral trade between China and Iran grew to $31.2 billion in 2016. Iran is currently listed as having ‘Observer status’ in SCO. As Russia has long wanted Iran to attain full membership status, China recently signaled its support. Incidentally, Iran announced earlier this year that it would stop using the US dollar in its official statements. Iran and China conducted a naval drill in the Gulf a few weeks back.

Turkey

President Tayyip Erdogan implied last December that Turkey is taking steps to allow commerce with China, Russia and Iran to be conducted in local currencies. A Chinese report confirmed that to ‘increase the trade volume and foreign investments between Turkey and China, and decrease their dependency on the US dollar during financial transactions, China and Turkey have started direct trading with their local currencies’. Current trade volume of $28 billion is expected to increase.

Turkey even dropped hints at shuttering the Incirlik air base to US air operations. With the US support of the Kurds in their fight against ISIS, there may be a stronger motivation to act. In fact, Turkey refused German lawmakers access to the base leading Germany to announce plans to withdraw 280 troops, as well as surveillance planes and refueling jets, from the Incirlik air base. If you are interested in understanding the historical importance of thie Incirlik air base read this and this. Turkey is listed as a ‘Dialogue partner’ in SCO.

Qatar 

Over two years ago, Qatar launched the first Chinese yuan clearing hub in the Middle East. According to Qatar’s central bank governor, Sheikh Abdullah bin Saud al-Thani, it would create ‘the necessary platform to realize the full potential of Qatar and the region’s trade relationship with China’. Since it opened, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China has cleared more than 590 billion yuan ($86 billion) in transactions in Qatar. Zheng Chunyi, General Manager of ICBC Doha, confirmed that ‘Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait are the most active Middle East countries using the RMB clearing center for direct payments with Chinese mainland and Hong Kong’. 

Iran-Turkey-Qatar Axis

The newly formed Iran-Turkey-Qatar axis (as evidenced by events such as this, this and this) is tied together by each countries’ burgeoning relationship with China. While Russia has a greater military presence in the Middle East (via Syria) and draws the most attention from Russia-phoebes in the US, China is the key financial player. Together, both Russia and China have emerged as a direct threat to US supremacy in the region. Although Iran has always had better relations with China, Turkey and Qatar have been solidly aligned with the West as each country still maintain US military personal at their bases.  Perhaps, both countries are hedging their bets based on a calculation that will see a rising China and declining US.

The Petrodollar

Since the inauguration, President Trump has not mentioned the 28 page document (known simply as ‘The 28 pages’ and discussed during the campaign) which implicated members of the Saudi Arabian government for their involvement in the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center. He in fact visited Saudi Arabia last month, participated in a sword dance and signed off on a $110 billion weapons deal. Why? The answer is the petrodollar. The key part of this agreement is that the US must defend Saudi Arabia as long as they sell their oil in US dollars.

It would appear that China is taking no chances and is working on pushing Saudi Arabia into its sphere of influence. Byron King from the Daily Reckoning speculates that China is looking to modify its terms of its oil trade with Saudi Arabia as follows:  

‘China is currently modifying the terms of its oil trade with Saudi Arabia. Specifically, China is working on a deal to pay for Saudi oil using Chinese yuan. This effort poses a direct threat to the security of the dollar. If this China-Saudi deal happens — yuan for oil — it’s another step closer to the grave for the petrodollar, which has dominated global finance since 1974.’

Whether the speculation is true or not, the threat to the US dollar as the reserve currency is real. The petrodollar system is under an attack directed by China.

From a US perspective, options are limited and further actions like a US invasion of Syria could make the situation worse. Since the US military has decided to back the Kurds to fight ISIS, there is less of a chance to win back Turkey. In my opinion, the best option would be for the US to maintain the current petrodollar system as long as possible until a new one backed by cryptocurrencies is ready. I outlined this in my prior post titled Global Currency Reset Happening Now as Bitcoin Price Explodes. Unfortunately, the US Senate doesn’t have a clue. 

Projects that will Further Internationalize the Chinese Yuan

– China’s yuan inclusion in the International Monetary Fund’s currency basket

– China International Payment System (CIPS) is an alternative payments system to SWIFT

– Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is an international financial institution that will finance infrastructure projects in the Asia region

– Bilateral Currency Swap Lines completed between China and over thirty counterparties to enable greater overseas trade of the yuan

– Silk Road Gold Fund to facilitate gold purchase for the central banks of member states

– Shanghai Gold Exchange launched to set a new benchmark price for gold bullion

This post originally appeared on News with Chai blog.