Tag: Donald Trump

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SYRIAN CEASEFIRE: Russia Now in Charge of Israel’s Border

The G20 meeting between Putin and Trump has already produced some immediate results.  According to reports the two sides agreed to implement a ceasefire for Southwest Syria, along the Israeli and Jordanian borders.

“A ceasefire will come into force in that zone (Syria’s south – Daraa and Quneitra) at 12.00 Damascus time on July 9,” Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. “The United States has made a commitment that all the groups present there will observe the ceasefire.”

The security in the de-escalation zone in the south of Syria will be ensured by the Russian military police in coordination with the US and Jordan.

“At first, the security around this zone will be ensured with the use of the personnel and resources of the Russian military police,” Lavrov said.

The ceasefire has brought a tenuous relief to Israel as the Syrian regime forces and their Iranian allies were marching straight for the Golan. Reports indicate that Iran was brought to in on the deal by Russia who has grown wary of the Iranian army’s involvement in the conflict.

The deal covers the Daraa, Quneitra, and Sweida areas of Syria.

Is the Ceasefire Really Good for Israel?

Although there is a feeling of relief in Israel due to the ceasefire, the agreement itself is still not without flaws. Israel has demanded that Russia not be alowed to control the ceasefire zones without US involvement.  More than that the ceasefire does not prevent movements by the Syrian regime or its allies to other parts of the country. This essentially means that the Syrian regime can prepare for the next round.

This puts Daraa and Quneitra under a immediate threat once the ceasfire breaks down as it most probably will.

So why did Trump sign such a precarious deal?  Trump was left with little choice. By not committing to ground troops himself, Trump had to put a stop to Syria/Iran’s move to the Meditereanean or risk a broader war with Israel getting involved. Trump found a willing partner in Russia’s Putin to make it happen.

Now that the deal appears to be going into effect on Sunday, the Trump administration has essentially given Putin what he wants. Israel will have a far more precarious future with Russia in the mix on its border.

The deal essentially puts Russia on the border with Israel. This will make it harder and harder for the Israeli military to strike back if it is hit by Syria or Hezbollah. Israeli sources say that Israel’s government is in intense discussions on the specifics of Russia’s role within the ceasefre zones.

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TWO FRONT WAR: Iran is Sharing ICBM Technology with North Korea

Donald Trump issued the following Tweet in reaction to this morning’s North Korean ICBM launch that had the potential to hit Alaska.

Despite the bravado, the Tweets do not hide the utter shock in North Korea’s ability to make serious advancements in its ICBM program.  Today’s test was supposed to be a year away.  This puts pressure on the Trump administration to respond accordingly.

Yet, how did the situation reach this point?  Disregarding the last 17 years of foolish attempts at convincing North Korea to stop, the last several months has seen their program has grown considerably.

Iran is Developing North Korea’s ICBM Technology

The partnership built around missile development and nuclear technology between Iran and North Korea has only grown stronger since the Obama administration reached a deal on Iran’s nuclear program.

North Korea tests missiles then sells the know how to Iran who in turn tests and improves the missile and then sends the updated specs back to North Korea.  This is the explanation of how the Kim Jong Un regime has reached impressive levels of missile capability is disconcerning and means that the Trump administration is essentiall fighting a two front war. It also means that the North Korean and Iranian issue are ver intertwined.

Israel Defense Analyst Tal Inbar wrote in May:

“The ‘accuracy revolution’ is a process we see in many countries’ rockets and missile forces,” Inbar wrote. “North Korea’s close ally, Iran, which bought the technical know-how on ballistic missiles from North Korea, introduced a new generation of ballistic missiles with a forward section containing a set of movable fins and guidance equipment.”

Taking on One Means Taking on Two

Micha Gefen reported in April about the interconnection of the two programs.

“It has been known for some time that Iranian missile technology was developed in North Korea.  Both regimes see the USA as their number one enemy and have worked together to build a situation where they would pose a serious threat to the USA. To most observers North Korea and Iran are in constant coordination as can be seen from last week’s ballistic missile test in Ira, which followed North Korea’s launch of four missiles near Japan.

Researchers from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies published a research paper (.pdf) in January 2016 outlining Iran’s past and present military dealings with North Korea, concluding that “the signs of military and scientific cooperation between Iran and North Korea suggest that Pyongyang could have been involved in Tehran’s nuclear and ballistic-missile program, and that state-run trading companies may have assisted in critical aspects of Iran’s illicit nuclear-related activities.””

If America and its allies want to deal with North Korea, the Iranian advance accross Syria and its threat to the Israeli Golan must be taken into consideration.

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Is the Worst Over on the Syria-Israel Border?

The IDF Spokesperson tweeted the following out this morning:

While this is a good short-term development, notifying the end to what seemed to be an acute situation on the Syrian border, the message should be taken very superficially. The spillover into the Israeli side of the Golan was certainly nerve-wracking for the residents of Northern Israel, yet the fact that the IDF took great pains to focus their return fire on the Syrian regime should be a warning on just how close regime forces and their Iranian allies have come to once again claiming the Golan border.

The retaliation by the IDF against the Syrian regime in many ways goes far beyond the scope of Israel’s claimed focus of their relationship to the many sides in the Syrian civil war.

It is no accident that the IDF retaliated heavily on regime positions at the same moment the FSA was leading and offensive to cut through the road leading from Damascus to Daraa. The regime forces of Assad and his Iranian allies have yet to fully crush the resistance in Daraa and so the FSA was trying to break their supply lines.

 

Base image source: MrPenguin20

 

For the first time Israel was willing to show Syria some of their hand in order to relay a message. “Quneitra is off-limits.” The Quneitra based division of the FSA is more and more becoming aligned with Israel. What started out as simple humanitarian gestures have morphed into an Israeli backed rebel militia.

With Hezbollah stationed oppositie Har Dov and routinely coming close to the base there, Israel can ill-afford to have the Syrian regime and Iran take up positions opposite the Eastern border of the Golan.

As the Trump administration weighs its next move against the Syrian regime, Israel is moving fast to push back againstAssad’s forces without fully entering the civil war.

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The Real Reason Trump Wants to Hit Syria…

All signs are pointing to an imminent “preemptive” strike by the US against Syria.  This is of course a prelude to an ever-expanding role for the US military in Syria.  Now, even if Syria was about to use chemical weapons it is not clear why the US is suddenly concerned about intervening in the 6-year-old civil war. Yet, they are intervening and have been increasing their ground ops for weeks.

  • The US Military has been actively training an supporting the SDF and YPG against ISIS in Raqqa as well as solidifying the groups’ hold over large areas of Eastern Syria
  • The US Military has been active on the Eastern part of the Syrian, Jordanian, and Iraqi border area, building US bases in Syria.
  • The US Military has redeployed the YPG to Southeastern Syria in hopes they will hold off the Syrian regime advancement

With all of the above in mind, Trump’s now direct threat against the Syrian regime and Russia’s response puts the entie region on the verge of a Syrian War on steroids.

So why would Trump risk a war with Russia/Iran over chemical weapons infractions?

As we have reported here, the Syrian Regime and its Iranian allies have been gaining ground across the country. According to sources on the ground, the Syrian regime is close to defeating rebel units in Daraa.  The Syriran regime has already started to advance on Israel, but has been held back for now by elements of the FSA (Free Syrian Army) which Israel covertly backs. In the East, the YPG has been unable to hold off the Regime’s advance.

If Trump does not make a move soon, the FSA in the Quneitra area will collapse and at the same time the gains by the US and Jordan in the East will be effectively reversed.  This will complete the Shiite Crescent from Tehran to Aleppo, and create an existential threat to Israel and Saudi Arabia. The Shiite Crescent will also give strength to Turkey’s goal of wiping out the Kurds, effectively ending Kurdistan’s drive for independence.

The US has little time to maneuver as Syria backed by Russia and Iran are in the final weeks of mopping up from the Syrian civil war.

It is either now or never.

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PUTIN RESPONDS: “White House Threats Against Syria Are Unnacceptable”

With the White House catching even the State Department off-guard with its veiled attack on “Syrian preparations” for another chemical weapons attack, Russia countered with its own statement.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov released the following statement pushing back on the Trump Administration:

“We heard about this statement. We do not know what is the basis for this. And of course we categorically disagree with the ‘another attack’ wording,” Peskov told reporters.”We also consider any similar threats to the legitimate leadership of the Syrian Arab Republic unacceptable.”

Peskov continued: “Cases of chemical toxic substances’ use by Daesh terrorists have been repeatedly recorded. There is a potential threat of the repeat of such provocations. However, I repeat that I don’t possess exact information and I believe that my colleagues from special services and the Defense Ministry will share it [information] if they possess it.”

Although no evidence was stated by the White House of Syrian preparations, Assad has been known to own stockpiles of illegal Sarin Gas.  Russia has often times blamed ISIS for Assad’s chemical weapons infractions.

That being said, the following statement by Nikki Haley is a bit odd.

This sort of statement backs up Russia’s assertions and would in fact invite a chemical weapons attack by ISIS just so Syria can be blamed.

If the White House is right about Syria, then everyone there should pull back from Twitter usage as to not give the Russians anymore ammunition for their disinformation and propoganda campaign.

If the White House is not right about Syria then we are witnessing the makings of a false flag attack in real time.