Tag: Donald Trump

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Iran, North Korea, and the Fast Approaching End Game

Two events  in the past week have now reshaped world events and the geo-political landscape for the forseeble future. The first was the Iranian launch of an advanced satellite-carrying rocket that experts believe is cover for the Islamic Republic’s long-range ballistic missile program.

The other was the second ICBM launch on Friday, carried out by the North Korean regime.  This ICBM flew 3,724km before crashing into the Sea of Japan.  Most experts concur with North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un’s statement that, “The test confirmed that all the US mainland is within striking range.”

Trump had been banking on a year or two to convince the Chinese that they would have no choice but to reign in North Korea.  That has gone bust.

 

The long term game is over, as well as the parallel track with Iran.  There too Trump’s assumption was that Russia, if given certain “carrots” could be enticed to push back against the Ayatollah’s. The satelite launch ended that as well.

With Russia on Israel’s doorstep and Iran preparing for Middle Eastern hegemony, Trump can ill-afford to wait in order to build a coherent foreign policy.

No More White House Distractions

The firing of Reince Priebus and the appointment of General Kelly as his replacement as the new White House Chief of Staff has deep implications on America’s foreign policy.  The Trump White House could ill-afford to have the leaks continue during such a sensitive time where crucial decisions involving a two front war would have to be made. General Kelly also brings serious military experience to the White House, setting the stage for flipping the Trump administration to a war presidency.

The Israel Factor

With the Syrian war turning into an existential crisis for Israel, Jerusalem is waiting for the USA to put together a comprehensive strategy in dealing with these two interconnected threats. Given the fact that Syria appears to be the testing ground where Iranian and North Korean know-how are actually merged together on the battlefield, Israel will be called on to alleviate the burden put on America if and when an actual war would break out.

 

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Iran Conducts Rocket Space Launch, Cover for Long Range Missile Program

Iran announced on Thursday that it had launched an advanced satellite-carrying rocket that experts believe is cover for the Islamic Republic’s long-range ballistic missile program, which has become a flashpoint in relations between Tehran and the Trump administration.

Iranian state media carried the announcement early Thursday. It represents the most significant successful test of such technology, which can be used for space projects as well as long-range nuclear-capable weapons.

The rocket, called the Simorgh, or ‘phoenix,’ marks a key step forward in Iran’s space program, which as long been suspected of covering research and development of advanced intercontinental ballistic missiles, or ICBMs.

Iranian media claimed the rocket can carry a 550-pound satellite and that the launch was a success.

Regional experts told the Washington Free Beacon that the latest test is meant to send a message to the Trump administration, which has increased sanctions on Tehran for its ongoing research into ballistic missile technology, which many believe will be used as part of its nuclear program.

“Much like its nuclear program, it is highly likely that Iran’s space program also serves as a cover for the development of an illicit intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) program,” Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior Iran research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told the Free Beacon. “In particular, the engine development and rocket staging would teach Iran a great deal about how to propel an ICBM. Unfortunately, Tehran has a propensity to use scientific endeavors to further its security.”

Taleblu described the test as an effort by Iran to gauge the Trump administration’s willingness to take a hardline on such activity.

“Iran’s decision to test this rocket, as the Trump administration is reviewing its overall Iran policy is telling,” he said. “It signals a desire to see how serious the administration is to rolling back Iranian technological a advancements, military capabilities, and growing regional influence.”

Originally Published on the Washington Free Beacon.

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The Growing Intersection Between Turkey, Trump, Kurdistan, and the Golan

The publication by Turkey of more than 200 US bases and places of presence across Western Kurdistan, now occupied by Syria drew the ire of the Trump administration and the US Defense establishment. The Turkish government went ahead and published this list and map in protest of the US policy in supporting the growing autonomy of Western Kurdistan (Northern Syria), which runs along the border of Turkey in Northern Syria.

“The discussion of specific troop numbers and locations would provide sensitive tactical information to the enemy which could endanger Coalition and partner forces,” wrote Col. Joe Scrocca, coalition director of public affairs.

“Publishing this type of information would be professionally irresponsible and we respectively [sic] request that you refrain from disseminating any information that would put Coalition lives in jeopardy.”

Turkey views the rise of an independent Kurdistan as a non-starter, unless it is contained to the KRG in Northern Iraq.  What is taking shape now though are two autnomous areas, which if joined would inspire Kurds living in Northern Kurdistan, occupied today by Turkey, to fight vigorously for their independence.

It is no secret that the US has ben aiding the YPG (Syrian Kurdish militias) and has rolled them into the broader Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), but the continued strengthening of this militia has crossed a red line for Erdogan.

Did Trump trade the Southwest of Syria for Western Kurdistan?

Despite the current opposition from Washington to the KRG’s drive towards a referendum on independence, the Trump administration still views the Kurds as the best avenue to push back on Iran and stablize the region. There is a four way tussle for Syria: Russia, Iran, Turkey, and the USA. Some of the sides work together and others don’t, but these four countries are busy establishing zones of control.

Up until the G-20 Ceasefire with Russia, it appeared that the USA and Russia were heading to a direct confrontation in the Southwestern part of Syria.  To offset this, the Russians backed Turkey’s assault on the indigenous Kurds to the North.  Putin hates Erdogan, but was ready to use him to battle Washington. The ceasefire changes things. With relative quiet in the Southwest, Putin can put the brakes on supporting Turkey’s assault against the Kurdish directed SDF.

Trump’s strategy here is clear. Consolodate the US gains in Western Kurdistan (Northern Syria), while letting Israel and Russia learn to work together in the Southwest. Trump now has a fighting force in Syria that is not only moderate, but is experienced in pushing back against ISIS and other Sunni radicals. More than that he pins Erdogan down, preventing the neo-Sultan from implementing his goals of expanding Turkey.

This strategy seems to benefit the US, but has been seen as dangerous by Israel due to the partnership between Russia and Iran. Given the propensity for Iran to utilize the Russian army as cover to move in on Israel, the tacit agreement with Russia is dangerous. Iran has already moved into the DMZ East of Israel’s Golan. With Hezbollah contantly infiltrating the Har Dov area in the Northern Golan, a similar presence to the East under the protection of Russian troops appears too much Israel to put up with.

With Hezbollah preparing for war, Israel is fast working to establish a deconfliction policy with Russia in the greater Golan area.

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Why Does Israel Oppose the Syrian Ceasefire?

Reports in the media indicate that Prime Minister Netanyahu opposes the ceasefire in Southwestern Syria. The Hill quotes a source from Haaretz that “Netanyahu told French President Emmanuel Macron during a meeting Sunday that Israel does not support the agreement.”

The question is why.  Afterall, on paper quiet in the Southwest on the border of Israel’s Golan Heights is a good thing.  No one in the Israeli government would argue with quiet, yet the nature of the ceasefire allows for Russian observers to man the border region.  This is a huge capitulation on behalf of the Trump administration.  Up until the ceasefire, Israel could, when necessary hit back against Iranian, Hezbollah, and Syrian movements and arms smuggling.  Now that Russian are essentially in the same locations, Israel will now have to make sure not to hit Russian forces while battling parties aimed at its destruction.

More than this, Putin seems intent on playing both sides.  While he has set up a “deconfliction mechanism” with Israel, Putin keeps on moving the goal posts closer to Israel, which effectively renders the “deconfliction mechanism” pointless.

Most analysts, including myself are betting on a new round of fighting between Hezbollah and Israel sooner rather than later, regardless of the Trump-Putin ceasefire. Israel will have to hit quick and successfully in order minimize the amount of destruction it receives back at home.  With Russia in the mix, this ability to wipe out Hezbollah missile infrastructure is severely hampered, especially since Iran and Syria have openly allowed Hezbollah to set up forward bases from Syrian territory. Considering our report yesterday about the ballistic missile factory now set up in Syria, Trump’s ceasefire appears to not only harm Israel, but ultimately America.

The Trump administration might have lowered the risks of going against Putin in Syria, but the White House’s decision has left the region far more imperiled than before.

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Syrian Ceasefire Crumbles on Second Day as Regime and Iranian Allies Attack Rebels

Reports are streaming in that Syrian regime forces and its Iranian allies have already started violating the truce brokered between Trump and Putin at the G20 summit last week.  This would mean the much vaunted truce lasted all of 24 hours.

and again:

The fighting continued near Daraa and the Sweida, two areas covered by the ceasefire.  Below is a map of showing areas of control as the the ceasefire went into place.

With the ceasefire beginning to unravel even before the first Russian troops show up to monitor it, the question is how long before the Trump administration and Moscow decide to try to reorganize for another try. The regime and Iran will not stop while the wind is at their backs. They were closing in on capturing Daraa before the agreement and if they do now they will split two of the rebel areas in half and stand on the border of Jordan just a few kilometers from the Southern Golan.

Did Putin Outmaneuver Trump?

Despite Trump’s glowing victory speech after the agreement he “brokered” at the G20, it appears to be Putin that played the President Trump.  Afterall, Putin knew full well that Syria and Iran would not rest until they at least took all of Daraa if not more.  He also knew that his airforce was no longer needed to achieve Daraa’s conquest.

The question remains, will Trump admit he was out played? Or will he continue to spread the false notion that there is actually a ceasefire, when in fact there was none.  The faster the Trump administration realizes that no deal can be made with the regime, Iran, or even their Russian backers, the faster he can stave off total defeat.